Karim Sadjadpour

@ksadjadpour • 140,640 subscribers

Senior Fellow @CarnegieEndow; Contributing writer @TheAtlantic; Book writing for @AAKnopf; Adjunct professor @Georgetown; 🏃🏽‍♂️

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Live Cam

Karim Sadjadpour

Shorts

Significant anti-government protests tonight in the Shia holy city of Mashhad—hometown of Ayatollah Khamenei and once considered an Islamic Republic stronghold.

For the second consecutive night, large crowds chanting “Death to Khamenei” in Tehran.

This is the third month of weekly protests in Zahedan (southeast Iran). Protestors denounce Khamenei.ir and the bassij.

Videos

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The Trump administration has struggled to reconcile why four months ago they believed Iran warranted military confrontation, while today they believe the same regime—whose conduct and ambitions appear unchanged—warrants significant economic incentives. This Week with Jonathan Karl

The greatest countervailing force against the Islamic Republic is pluralistic Iranian nationalism. Reports that the US may fund or arm Kurdish factions inside Iran will alarm many Iranians—and undermine the regime’s opposition. My interview w/ Erin Burnett OutFront

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ambassador in Madrid, Hassan Ghashghavi, refuses to shake hands with Queen Letizia of Spain

1 Despite Iran's public bluster, the now 19-day US naval blockade is having an impact. A largely insolvent government battling 70% inflation is losing an estimated $450m daily due to a blockade it cannot easily circumvent. That's not sustainable.

1 Based on VP Vance’s comments today it appears the Trump administration’s goal is not to negotiate merely a nuclear deal with Iran, but a grand bargain to transform the US-Iran relationship. No US administration since 1979 has achieved this goal.

The US-Iran conflict hasn’t been resolved. A hot war has potentially been paused, but a very Cold War continues. The core sources of tension (nukes, missiles, proxies, and even Hormuz) have yet to be negotiated. This isn’t the birth of a new Middle East.

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An example of how the Islamic Republic’s plainclothes security forces respond to peaceful female protestors.

It took the Obama administration nearly two years to negotiate just a nuclear agreement with Iran. There’s no chance the Trump administration gets a more comprehensive deal—including Hormuz, nukes, missiles, and proxies—in two weeks. With Erin Burnett OutFront

One Iran strategy potentially taking shape resembles the Venezuela playbook—using economic strangulation as a prelude to political, and possibly military, decapitation, aimed ultimately at Ayatollah Khamenei.

Worth watching until the end

Iran’s new leaders have the same ideology. All are committed to the principles of the 1979 revolution and will rule with greater brutality given their lack of legitimacy. They fear normalization with the US more than conflict with the US. CNN with Anderson Cooper 360°

Iran is trying to restrain Trump by shaping American public opinion against the war. He is now the sixth US president since 1979 consumed by events tied to Iran. Washington Week with The Atlantic | PBS

The Ahmadinejad story defies belief. His presidency was infamous for Holocaust denial, threats against Israel, and advancing Iran’s nuclear program. Netanyahu compared him to Hitler. He had no institutional power to become Iran’s Delcy Rodriguez. CNN with Kaitlan Collins

Trump and Vance have said Iran’s new leaders are more reasonable, and are rethinking their revolutionary ideology. We haven’t yet seen any outward evidence of this, and much evidence to the contrary. CNN with Dana Stroul on the uneasy U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Trump has expressed hope in doing a deal with new Iranian leaders, but so long as the Islamic Republic remains in power, we can at best go from a hot war back to a cold war. CNN with Barak Ravid and Kaitlan Collins

Ali Larijani had a track record of mass repression as well as decades of domestic and foreign policy experience. He will not be easily replaced. Discussion w Kaitlan Collins on the state of the military, economic, and political war between the US and Iran.

Reminiscent of late-stage Soviet television, Iranian state TV features a morning “workout” show led by a geriatric Islamist chanting religious slogans.

Few countries have a wider gap between government and society than Iran. The only message President Trump—or any foreign leader—should deliver is simple: Iran’s future leaders must be chosen by the Iranian people, and they should be empowered to make that choice. Erin Burnett OutFront

Israel is targeting the Islamic Republic’s pillars of repression. The question is whether these are structural pillars, or men who can be easily replaced. The regime’s deep unpopularity and isolation have hardened its resolve. CNN with Anderson Cooper

Neither the U.S. nor Iran wants to return to war. The broad contours of a deal are visible, but an agreement itself remains distant. Trump and Tehran share the same instinct: never yield to pressure, always punch back. CNN with @KaitlanCollins