Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road's banner

Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road

@KyleReidhead • 18,996 subscribers

Analyst & CEO at @milkroaddaily @milkroadai | Helping everyday investors catch technological trends early | Go PRO to track my real-time portfolio below:

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AI token usage is up 10x in 7 months, compounding 40%/MONTH! There is NO BUBBLE when demand is STILL accelerating And this is just OpenRouter, it doesn't count the labs direct token usage and APIs But here's what's interesting about these numbers, the demand is coming from everywhere at once US models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) keep growing, while Chinese open weight models (DeepSeek, Tencent, Xiaomi, Minimax) grew even faster and now drive over 60% of usage on OpenRouter Closed source and open source both compounding at the same time. This is literally the best case scenario for AI Infra investors It means both frontier model tokens and cheaper tokens have product market fit. This means the application layer is finding ways to use both and generate ROI with both types Demand for tokens IS demand for compute. This is why SpaceX is looking to build 10GW of compute by next year, because the demand is clearly here Now combine this demand set up, with NVIDIA yesterday announcing financing platforms with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize over $500 billion of third party capital for AI infrastructure And Jensen has said publicly he expects $3 to $4 TRILLION of AI infrastructure spend by 2030 The build out will have to continue for a lot longer than the market is expecting, that is very clear to me. Don't let this consolidation period in AI infra stocks shake you out, they will have their moment again and take their next leg higher p.s. if you want to see how im investing in this, you can track my real-time portfolio and the research of all 5 Milk Road PRO analysts with live trade notifications, and it's just $1 to try it out (insane price just to check it out). Learn more here: Good luck out there!

AI token usage is up 10x in 7 months, compounding 40%/MONTH! There is NO BUBBLE when demand is STILL accelerating And this is just OpenRouter, it doesn't count the labs direct token usage and APIs But here's what's interesting about these numbers, the demand is coming from everywhere at once US models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) keep growing, while Chinese open weight models (DeepSeek, Tencent, Xiaomi, Minimax) grew even faster and now drive over 60% of usage on OpenRouter Closed source and open source both compounding at the same time. This is literally the best case scenario for AI Infra investors It means both frontier model tokens and cheaper tokens have product market fit. This means the application layer is finding ways to use both and generate ROI with both types Demand for tokens IS demand for compute. This is why SpaceX is looking to build 10GW of compute by next year, because the demand is clearly here Now combine this demand set up, with NVIDIA yesterday announcing financing platforms with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilize over $500 billion of third party capital for AI infrastructure And Jensen has said publicly he expects $3 to $4 TRILLION of AI infrastructure spend by 2030 The build out will have to continue for a lot longer than the market is expecting, that is very clear to me. Don't let this consolidation period in AI infra stocks shake you out, they will have their moment again and take their next leg higher p.s. if you want to see how im investing in this, you can track my real-time portfolio and the research of all 5 Milk Road PRO analysts with live trade notifications, and it's just $1 to try it out (insane price just to check it out). Learn more here: Good luck out there!

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Yesterday my Tesla Model Y drove my family from London, Canada to Atlanta, Georgia 1,400 km and 17 hours I never used the gas pedal or breaks I never used the steering wheel FSD took us the entire way and the drive felt safer than any human driving - no mistakes, no fatigue Absolutely incredible experience Tesla Elon Musk

Yesterday my Tesla Model Y drove my family from London, Canada to Atlanta, Georgia 1,400 km and 17 hours I never used the gas pedal or breaks I never used the steering wheel FSD took us the entire way and the drive felt safer than any human driving - no mistakes, no fatigue Absolutely incredible experience Tesla Elon Musk

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NVIDIA just convinced the biggest credit firms on earth to bet $500 billion that Michael Burry is wrong The bet is over ONE number: how long does a GPU live? Jensen thinks it's longer than most and a new asset class w/ a secondary market The hyperscalers write off GPUs over 5 to 6 years (Amazon uses 5, Meta 5.5, Google 6) On the other hand, Burry's famous bear thesis says the real life is 2 to 3 years becuase the newer models make the older models effectively worthless. If true, this would mean the industry is overstating profits by roughly $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 Here's why this one number matters so much. On every $100B of GPU capex: 1. 3 year life = $33B a year of depreciation expense 2. 6 year life = $17B a year 3. 8 year life with resale value = $10B a year The gap between Burry's world and Jensen's world is $20B+ of profit per year on every $100B spent, and the industry now spends well over $500B a year! So who's right and is this new $500B AI infra fund a risk on the market? Let's look at what the market is paying for it right now: A100s are 6 year old chips, fully depreciated, worth roughly zero on the books, and their rental price is UP about 25% this year (see the chart I reposted below) A supposedly dead asset from Burry has been climbing all year Azure ran V100s for 7.5 years before retiring them, Google still runs 7 to 8 year old TPUs in production. Old GPUs don't seem to die, they get demoted from training to inference and then continue earning cash That's what Jensen showed the credit desks, and it changes everything, because an asset with real resale value can be financed more similar to something like an aircraft Airlines lease planes instead of buying them because lenders trust the residual value. If GPUs work the same way, customers don't need equity to buy chips anymore, credit does it, and the pool of NVIDIA buyers expands massively It looks like Jensen is going to be right about this (which makes sense, he is the King of GPUs) and $500 billion of the smartest credit money on earth too his side too This is extremely bullish for NVIDIA of course, but also the hyperscalers and even neoclouds who are the main buyers/sellers of GPUs. The longer their assets retain value, the more they will buy and resell If you want to see how I'm investing in this market you can track my entire portfolio and research in real-time, alongside 4 other analysts, inside Milk Road PRO. It's currently just $1 to try it out (insane price just to check it out) and you can learn more and join here: Good luck out there!

NVIDIA just convinced the biggest credit firms on earth to bet $500 billion that Michael Burry is wrong The bet is over ONE number: how long does a GPU live? Jensen thinks it's longer than most and a new asset class w/ a secondary market The hyperscalers write off GPUs over 5 to 6 years (Amazon uses 5, Meta 5.5, Google 6) On the other hand, Burry's famous bear thesis says the real life is 2 to 3 years becuase the newer models make the older models effectively worthless. If true, this would mean the industry is overstating profits by roughly $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 Here's why this one number matters so much. On every $100B of GPU capex: 1. 3 year life = $33B a year of depreciation expense 2. 6 year life = $17B a year 3. 8 year life with resale value = $10B a year The gap between Burry's world and Jensen's world is $20B+ of profit per year on every $100B spent, and the industry now spends well over $500B a year! So who's right and is this new $500B AI infra fund a risk on the market? Let's look at what the market is paying for it right now: A100s are 6 year old chips, fully depreciated, worth roughly zero on the books, and their rental price is UP about 25% this year (see the chart I reposted below) A supposedly dead asset from Burry has been climbing all year Azure ran V100s for 7.5 years before retiring them, Google still runs 7 to 8 year old TPUs in production. Old GPUs don't seem to die, they get demoted from training to inference and then continue earning cash That's what Jensen showed the credit desks, and it changes everything, because an asset with real resale value can be financed more similar to something like an aircraft Airlines lease planes instead of buying them because lenders trust the residual value. If GPUs work the same way, customers don't need equity to buy chips anymore, credit does it, and the pool of NVIDIA buyers expands massively It looks like Jensen is going to be right about this (which makes sense, he is the King of GPUs) and $500 billion of the smartest credit money on earth too his side too This is extremely bullish for NVIDIA of course, but also the hyperscalers and even neoclouds who are the main buyers/sellers of GPUs. The longer their assets retain value, the more they will buy and resell If you want to see how I'm investing in this market you can track my entire portfolio and research in real-time, alongside 4 other analysts, inside Milk Road PRO. It's currently just $1 to try it out (insane price just to check it out) and you can learn more and join here: Good luck out there!

Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road

265,637 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

CEO of Goldman Sachs says: "we need to raise this money as fast as possible and put it to work so the USA can remain ahead on AI" "we're going to need to raise Trillions over the coming years" As I've been saying, the market is WAY too bearish on AI infra and Capex These numbers are going MUCH higher and almost everyone who's part of this build out is telling you the exact same thing See you in 2027 when Capex hits $1.5T+ and in 2028 when we hit $2T+

CEO of Goldman Sachs says: "we need to raise this money as fast as possible and put it to work so the USA can remain ahead on AI" "we're going to need to raise Trillions over the coming years" As I've been saying, the market is WAY too bearish on AI infra and Capex These numbers are going MUCH higher and almost everyone who's part of this build out is telling you the exact same thing See you in 2027 when Capex hits $1.5T+ and in 2028 when we hit $2T+

Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road

102,087 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

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