Lucky ☘️

Prediction markets are creating some really strange incentives. As I was watching the “Will Ronaldo cry” market after Spain beat Portugal, my first thought was *What if someone was at the game, at a seat with a relatively decent view and close to the pitch, with their phone [phone with top end camera capabilities for arguments sake] and remained zoomed in on Ronaldo’s face while he remained on the pitch [yes he turns around but then I thought maybe you could have 2/3 of you at the game, in on it in different areas of the stadium] ****don’t take this market so literally, volumes weren’t massive [$1.4m+], it’s a stretch some of these arguments, but in lay man market terms, you’re creating edge. $ wise, r/r of actually trying the idea, just don’t look at that, rather the new dynamic of “gamblification” specific prediction market markets have created**** As we know, being there is 2-5 seconds quicker than live broadcast, so that’s the edge you’re trying to attack. On top of that, you can also try to “influence” the outcome. There are numerous examples that came to mind, the main theme still remains that you need *access*, but all are possible: 1. You’re the pitch-side presenter. Turn the interview into a tribute to their career instead of talking about the match - Ronaldo is still on the pitch, bet is valid. Takes 1 minute to research a game for Portugal that might trigger Ronaldo to cry. 2. You’re the stadium announcer. Give an unexpected speech thanking Ronaldo for everything he’s done before he leaves the pitch. Sure, requires official approval, logistically tougher, but possible. 3. You’re the stadium DJ. Play a song closely associated with his career while he’s still on the field. Like in 1., takes 1-2 mins to ask an LLM if there is a song or something closely associated with Ronaldo. 4. You’re a TV producer. Keep the cameras on his family and replay emotional moments while he’s waiting for the interview. 5. You have access to his family. Encourage them to come onto the pitch immediately after the final whistle rather than waiting in the tunnel. This requires a lot of access, but what’s stopping someone pushing the kids/wife onto the pitch a little more aggressively, even if they don’t want to. [mostly preplanned, but again, possible] 6. You have premium seats beside the tunnel or family section. Hold up a personal sign where he’s actually likely to see it before leaving the field [if in premium seats, given this market, unlikely it’s fully worth it - you get the idea] 7. You’re a former teammate or coach with pitch access. Make a point of finding him after the final whistle and saying something personal before he walks off. Requires immense access, participant likely doesn’t bother, but again, it’s possible There are loads more. None of these guarantee an outcome, and most probably have little effect. But, like the recurring theme here: it’s all possible. As always, waiting for the retarded comments, but just think. As always with some long form posts, just rambling. This is just the YES side, there’s also another whole story for the NO side.

26,569 просмотров