
Lunar
@LunarResearcher • 26,671 subscribers
gamble on prediction markets | dms open... all my content here is sponsored or commissioned | dyor
Shorts
Videos

My girlfriend asked why I was smiling at 4 AM. Showed her the terminal. "What are all those green numbers?" $1,129. Made while she slept. "Doing what?" Nothing. Claude scanned 14,000 wallets, found 47 that never lose, built a bot that copies them. She watched for 10 seconds: +$3.87 captured +$6.42 captured +$12.71 captured "It just keeps going?" Every few seconds. New line. New money. "How much did you start with?" $300. Now $1,429. Eleven hours. Asleep. "What does it do?" Buys at $0.48. Sells at $0.52. Pockets $0.04. Who wins doesn't matter. "That's legal?" Citadel does this on NYSE daily. 400 engineers. I have one screen. Copy my bot here: She looked at the P&L curve. Never dips. Just climbs. "Can you make me one?" Setting hers up now. She still doesn't get how it works. The bot doesn't care.
Lunar3,380,037 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

An ex-Anthropic engineer told me something at a party he probably shouldn't have. It was in SF. Someone's rooftop. I mentioned I run trading agents on Claude. He went quiet. "You're doing it wrong. Everyone is" I asked what he meant. "Claude is a runtime. Not a chatbox. You're supposed to pair it with repos" He pulled out his phone. Opened one GitHub link. 14,000 stars. Every workflow pattern they built internally before it went public. Agents. Tool use. Evals. Citations. The entire architecture. "Everyone types prompts. That's not how we use it. You connect Claude to a codebase. It reads. It understands. It builds on top of what's already there" I went home at 2am. Connected Claude Code to poly_data - 86 million Polymarket trades. Every wallet. Every entry. Claude didn't guess. It read the data and built detectors. First week: +$1,400. Second week: +$3,800. Right now: +$9,100. 4 agents. 74% win rate. His team runs this with a floor of PhDs and $800M AUM. My setup: Claude + a VPS. $25/month. The repos are free. Copytrade here: I asked him what separates his firm from everyone else. "Honestly? Keyboard shortcuts and repo structure. That's it. The model is the same for everyone" He texted me two days later. "Delete everything I told you" Too late.
Lunar1,650,820 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

An ex-OpenAI engineer walked up to me at a meetup in SF I was showing my Polymarket terminal. He looked at the screen for ten seconds and said one sentence. "You're trading blind. The data is sitting in the open and you're writing prompts" I didn't understand. What data. He took my laptop. Opened one repository. 86 million trades. Every wallet. Every entry. Every exit. The entire Polymarket history since day one. "At OpenAI models don't guess. They read. Connect Claude Code to this dataset and say - find every wallet with a win rate above 70% and more than 100 trades" I asked - why Claude and not GPT? He looked at me like I was an idiot. "Because Claude Code connects to the repo directly. It reads the entire codebase. It's not a chatbox. It's a runtime" That evening I connected it. Claude pulled 47 wallets in 4 minutes. Average profit: $214K. Hold time: 7 hours. 91% close their position BEFORE resolution. Top wallets capture 86% of the move and cut losers at 12%. Everyone else - 58% of profit and hold losers to 41%. Same exact entries. The exits make it a completely different game. "Now connect the scanner" Three commands - the bot sees 500+ markets in real time. No API key. Read-only. Claude built the scoring in 20 minutes: Gap between price and model > 7 cents. Book depth > $500. Resolution in 4-48 hours. 93% of markets get killed instantly. Only the fat ones survive. "Now this is the important part" - he sent me an article where a guy built a full bot over a weekend from these same repos Copytrade here: Three exit triggers: Target 85% of expected move. Volume spike x3 - smart money leaving. 24 hours of silence - thesis is dead. I copied the whole stack. VPS $5. Claude $20. Total $25 a month. No team. No office. No Bloomberg. 16 days. 187 trades. 71% win rate. $800 seed. +$8,700. I sent him my screen. He replied a day later. "You just replicated for $25 what cost us six months and 11 people" I said - thanks for the tip. "Delete this chat" Too late.
Lunar479,578 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

My dad told me to get a real job instead of "Polymarket betting" Last month I made more than his annual salary. On weather markets. On Polymarket. He hasn't mentioned the job thing since. Here's exactly what happened: NOAA isn't the weather app on your phone. It's a federal supercomputer - satellites, ocean buoys, Doppler radar - running atmospheric models 24/7 for 40+ years. 48-hour forecast accuracy: above 93%. Meanwhile Polymarket weather markets are priced by people checking AccuWeather between TikToks. That gap between federal science and retail guessing - that's the profit. I'm use for copytrade bots: Chicago, Friday: NOAA gives 92% confidence hitting 71°F. Polymarket has that bucket at 8¢. The bot catches it in seconds. Buys at 8¢ → NOAA is right → market corrects to 49¢ → sells. 6x return. On weather. No prediction needed. I put in $150 and left my laptop on the kitchen table. Came back to 28 trades executed across 6 cities. NYC, Dallas, Miami, Seattle, Atlanta, Chicago - scanning every 2 minutes for wherever a weather app disagrees with a supercomputer. Simple rules: Only buys below 15¢ Only sells above 45¢ Never more than $2 per position This isn't trading. It's arbitrage between people with a phone and people with a $6 billion satellite network. 2,900+ trades 91% win rate +$38,700 in one month starting from $150 My dad still thinks I should get a real job. The bot made $847 while I was having that conversation with him.
Lunar753,674 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

An Anthropic safety researcher closed her laptop when she saw my screen at Philz Coffee I was running my Polymarket bot from the corner table. She was in line. Looked over my shoulder. Stopped moving. "That's not a normal trading app. What model is that running on" I told her. Claude Code. Four repos. $25 a month. She sat down without asking. "I work on the alignment team. We test Claude for exactly this kind of autonomous behavior. You're letting it find its own trading signals" Not just signals. Wallets. 86 million trades. Every wallet. Every entry. Every exit. "You're feeding Claude raw wallet data and letting it identify which traders consistently win. Then cloning their behavior" She said it slowly. Like she was writing an internal report in her head. Claude Code finds the top wallets. Reverse-engineers their timing. Copies their entries. Then exits before they do. "Before they do?" My bot cuts at 85% of expected move or on a 3x volume spike. Top wallets exit before resolution 91% of the time. They capture 86% of the move. Losers hold to 58%. She put her coffee down. "How did you get Claude to learn exit timing on its own" I showed her the second repo. Three commands. 500+ markets. No API key. Claude scores them in 20 minutes. "We have 14 people stress-testing Claude's autonomous capabilities. You're just using them" My setup: Claude API - $20/mo VPS - $5/mo poly_data - free polymarket-cli - free 19 days. 4 agents. 74% win rate. Copytrade here: She stared at the screen for a long time. "This is literally what our red team simulates. Except you actually deployed it" She emailed me two days later. "Our policy team found your post. Please take it down" Too late.
Lunar231,073 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

My dad asked me why I stare at Python scripts at 3am instead of sleeping. "I'm not trading. I'm calculating." Every price on Polymarket comes from one equation: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) This is the softmax function. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price every contract. Most traders see 40¢ and think "cheap." I see 40¢ and check the liquidity parameter. b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill. I was losing money to the formula I didn't know existed. So I learned it. Then I built a bot around it. EV = true_prob × (1 - market_price) - (1 - true_prob) × market_price The bot checks b, calculates EV, sizes with Kelly: f* = (p × b - q) / b And executes before my morning coffee gets cold. $200 starting bankroll. 6 weeks later: $18,700. I didn't predict a single outcome. The bot just reads the math that 93% of traders ignore. Full breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, 5 cognitive traps
Lunar217,047 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

A Google DeepMind researcher cornered me at a bar in Hayes Valley I was showing my Polymarket PNL to a friend. She leaned over. Didn't introduce herself. "That's not a trading app. Show me your stack" I told her. Claude Code. Four repos. $25 a month. She set down her drink. "We tested this internally. You connect Claude directly to a dataset. It builds its own detectors. But nobody ships it because compliance kills everything" I asked what she meant. She took my phone. Opened one link. 86 million trades. Every wallet. Every entry. Every exit. "You don't tell Claude what to look for. It finds the wallets that win. Then it finds WHY they win. Then it copies the pattern" Her team spent 9 months building this for a hedge fund. 14 people. $2M budget. "The part that took us the longest - exit logic. Everyone thinks entries matter. They don't. Exits are the entire game" I told her my bot cuts at 85% of expected move or on a 3x volume spike. She went quiet. "Who taught you that" Claude Code found it in poly_data. Top wallets exit before resolution 91% of the time. They capture the move and leave. She opened another link. "This is the scanner. Three commands. 500+ markets. No API key. Claude scores them in 20 minutes" "That's our exact infra. Except it took us 9 months and you did it in a weekend" My setup: Claude API - $20/mo VPS - $5/mo poly_data - free polymarket-cli - free 19 days. 4 agents. 74% win rate. Copytrade here: I showed her the article where I broke down every repo, every command, every dollar. She read it for five minutes. Then: "You just open-sourced our entire pipeline" She texted me the next day. "My team lead saw your thread. Take it down" Too late.
Lunar124,001 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price beliefs. 93% of traders don't know this formula exists. They look at 40¢ and think "cheap." I look at 40¢ and calculate the theoretical price is 60¢. That's a 20-cent edge per share. One position: market at 0.35, my model said 0.55. Bought in. Market resolved. +$4,200. But the real edge isn't the formula. It's what happens after. I'm use for copytrade bots: Kelly criterion says bet 20% of your bankroll. Every pro I've studied bets 5%. Base rates, not gut feelings. Bayesian updates, not Twitter threads. 93% of Polymarket wallets lose money. They trade on vibes while the math is sitting on Wikipedia. My roommate just asked me to explain the formula to him. I wrote an entire breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, the 5 cognitive traps that blow up accounts.
Lunar190,474 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

My ex said "you'll never make real money on that Polymarket thing" I told my OpenClaw: "turn $100 into $5,000 on weather markets or I'm uninstalling you forever" It built a weather scanning system in 38 minutes, never asked a single question. The edge was stupid simple. NOAA - $6B federal supercomputer network - publishes 24-48h weather forecasts with 93%+ accuracy. Polymarket temperature buckets are priced by people checking AccuWeather between TikToks. The bot reads NOAA. The market doesn't. Hour 2: cold front warning for Chicago, NOAA gave 94% confidence on 34°F. Polymarket had that bucket at 7¢. Bot loaded up. $100 → $340 Hour 6: NYC heatwave data dropped, 3 temperature buckets were mispriced below 11¢ simultaneously. Bot caught all three before anyone noticed. $340 → $1,120 I use for copytrade bots: Hour 11: Miami humidity spike showed up in NOAA models 4 hours before it hit weather apps. Bot bought 6 buckets across 3 cities at 8-12¢. $1,120 → $2,890 Hour 18: Seattle overnight temperature dropped exactly into the range NOAA predicted 2 days ago. Market was still pricing it at 14¢. Bot ran the same play 12 times across Dallas and Atlanta. $2,890 → $4,460 Hour 23: one trade left. $540 needed. Chicago morning forecast resolved - the bucket bot bought at 7¢ in hour 2 corrected to 52¢. Hour 24: $5,117 It kept its end of the deal, I kept mine. The bot made $230 while she was reading this post.
Lunar72,007 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Anthropic engineer stops me in a hallway at a conference and points at my screen. "Are you the one running the Polymarket bot on Claude Code?" I say maybe. He looks back at the terminal. "This thing is live?" Yeah. He laughs. "We built Claude to write code. You people immediately turned it into a market animal." I ask what gave it away. "The layout," he says. "Official CLI on one side. Orderbook on the other. You’re not paper trading." He was right. I show him the stack. - official CLI. Rust. Scanning markets, placing orders, no UI tax. Claude Code on top of it. No giant infra. No team. Just prompts, a terminal, and a model that’s better at reading weird edge cases than most interns. "What’s the loop," he asks. "Short horizon only," I tell him. "Scan for contracts under 48h. Pull structure. Look for mispriced panic. Feed the market state to Claude. Let it decide if the crowd is overreacting or just early." "And execution?" "Three commands and the order is live." He nods. Profile bot: "That’s the part people miss. Everyone thinks the alpha is the model. The alpha is the model plus an execution path short enough that you don’t talk yourself out of the fill." A market flips while we’re standing there. +118. He sees it print. "Jesus." I keep going. "Most people use Claude Code to save time writing wrappers. Fine. But the real trick is that it reads messy market context better than brittle rule systems. News fragments. weird phrasing. half-broken incentives. Retail panic. You can feel the model noticing when the tape smells wrong." He smiles at that. "So what’s the cost." "$25 a month." He laughs again. "We spend more than that on lunch." Copytrade here: I show him the numbers. 214 trades. 74% win rate. +$9,437 in 19 days. He goes quiet for a second. "OpenAI people will say use Codex. Quant guys will say build a proper system. Old traders will say this isn’t robust." I shrug. "It placed the order." That’s when he gives me the line I kept. "Anthropic made Claude. GitHub did the rest." Then he taps the CLI window one more time. "Keep it ugly," he says. "The second you wrap this in a beautiful dashboard, someone upstairs will understand how little infrastructure the edge actually needed."
Lunar19,129 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

My girlfriend found a second phone in my jacket. "Who is she." No question mark. Just cold. I opened it in front of her. No messages. No calls. No photos. Just a terminal. Green numbers. 16 positions open. +$8,200. She stared at it for ten seconds. "What the fuck is this." It's a burner I use only for trading. No notifications. No socials. Just Claude and Polymarket. She didn't believe me for three days. Then I showed her the article. Claude analyzed 400 million trades worth $3.7 billion. Found 5 patterns that top 30 wallets use. Try copytrade bot here: The one that broke her brain: they hold 1.6 days. Everyone else holds 11. Same edge. 11x the return. She sat down. "Why a second phone?" Because on my main phone I check it every 40 seconds. On the burner - I check once a morning. Claude runs the rest. One category. 72 hour rule. Exit at 91% of peak. Cut at -12%. 322 trades. 76% win rate. Started with $500. She picked up the burner. Looked at the P&L. "Can you set one up for me?" She has her own burner now. We fight less. The bots don't care about feelings.
Lunar30,788 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I gave ClawdBot a 2-page spec and said build it. 47 minutes later I had a full arbitrage system running on Polymarket. The edge is simple. Polymarket prices BTC markets using Chainlink oracle - updates every 500ms. Binance spot updates every 10ms. That's a 490ms window where Polymarket doesn't know what Binance already knows. > BTC pumps to $67,520 on Binance. > Polymarket still shows $67,450, Spread: 2.3%. > Bot buys YES at 48¢. > Market resolves. +$520. The spec had 5 layers - data ingestion, research agents, signal generation, risk management, execution. Clawdbot read it once, built all 5. Deployed to AWS Lambda. I never wrote a single line of code. Results: 74% win rate $18.40 avg profit per trade 3.2% max drawdown $157,000 all-time Wallet with result: The prompt was one sentence: "Build me a full agentic system for Polymarket 5-min BTC arbitrage using this specification." Clawdbot did the rest.
Lunar47,895 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

I found 3 edges on Polymarket that turned $6,400 into $28,900 in 8 weeks No insider info. No leverage. No luck Just public data that 93% of traders ignore Edge 1: NOAA The US government runs a $6B weather supercomputer Satellites. Ocean buoys. Doppler radar. 40 years of atmospheric models It updates every few minutes Polymarket prices adjust 9-15 minutes later That delay is an arbitrage window NOAA says 84% probability. Market prices it at 12¢ 72-point edge. On a free government API 47 trades. 91% win rate. $11,340 Edge 2: top wallets Top 200 Polymarket wallets have 87% combined win rate and $4.7M in profit I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Fighting them is stupid Copying them is not Half-Kelly sizing. 10% max exposure. Auto-execution 134 trades. 84% win rate. $12,680 Edge 3: correlation spreads Polymarket prices correlated contracts independently Two contracts that should move together sometimes diverge 15-20% Short the overpriced one. Long the underpriced one. Convergence does the rest 12 pairs traded. 75% win rate. $4,880 8 weeks. 3 strategies. $6,400 → $28,900 Then I automated everything Now it runs 24/7 on a Python scheduler 4 hours a week to monitor The data is public. The formulas are on Wikipedia. The code runs on any laptop The edge is that nobody bothers to connect the dots
Lunar19,640 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

My ex texted me at 2 AM. "I need to tell you something." Heart dropped. Thought she was pregnant. "Open your laptop. I'm sending you a link." A terminal. Live Polymarket odds. Green P&L scrolling. +$8,700. She dumped me in October. Said I "spent too much time on crypto." Four months later she's running a trading bot. "How the fuck did you?" "You left a Claude tab open when you returned my hoodie. I read everything." She read an article. Claude analyzed 400 million trades worth $3.7 billion. Found 5 patterns. Nobody talks about them. The one that changed everything: top 30 wallets hold positions 1.6 days. Everyone else holds 11. Same edge. 11x the return. She gave Claude one prompt: "Only enter markets closing within 72 hours. One category. Exit at 91% of peak. Cut at -12%." Try copytrade bot here: Last 43 days: -> 187 trades -> 71% win rate -> +$8,700 Started with $400. My $400. The cash I left in the hoodie pocket. Best trade: bought a weather market at $0.11. NOAA said 94%. Resolved YES. +$1,600. While she was on a date with someone else. "Why are you telling me this?" "Because you still owe me for that Airbnb. Consider us even." She blocked me after the text. I taught her nothing. Claude taught her everything. My hoodie made more money than me.
Lunar14,841 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

My mom called me crying, she thought I was gambling away my savings on Polymarket. I sent her one screenshot. She went quiet for 40 seconds. $41,200. From $200. In 27 days. "...is that real?" Not luck. Not sports betting. Google told me the answers before the market heard them. Every time a topic spikes on Google Trends - Fed decision, Trump indictment, government shutdown - Polymarket prices lag 4 to 12 hours. Millions searching. Market hasn't moved. That delay is the entire edge. One Claude agent. One job: watch Google Trends for spikes above 300% tied to open Polymarket markets. Spike hits, market hasn't moved - buy. Profile Claude agent: Day 1: "government shutdown" spiked 840% at 2AM. Polymarket still at 23¢. Agent bought. By noon - 47¢. $200 → $610 Day 4: "rate cut" exploded 6 hours before the Fed announcement. 3 markets under 15¢. All resolved above 60¢. $610 → $2,400 I use for copytrade bots Gluon: Day 9: CEO resignation leaked on Reddit. Google Trends spiked at 11PM. Agent was in at 11:02PM. By morning - 5x. $2,400 → $7,800 Day 14: Pattern - every time "inflation data" spikes 500%+ on a Tuesday night, CPI markets are mispriced by 12-18¢. Three Tuesdays in a row. Agent caught all three. $7,800 → $16,500 Day 21: "ceasefire" spiked in 4 languages simultaneously. Conflict markets at 11¢. Agent loaded 8 positions. $16,500 → $29,400 Day 27: Three spikes between midnight and 4AM - when American traders sleep but the world doesn't. 19 trades. 16 green. $29,400 → $41,200 Only buys below 20¢. Sells above model price. Max $3 per position. 4 billion people google the answer. The market just hasn't heard it yet. 2,700+ trades. 84% win rate. $200 → $41,200. My mom still doesn't fully get what I do. But she stopped crying. The agent made $380 while she was reading the screenshot.
Lunar12,275 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
Keine weiteren Inhalte verfügbar