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@MaithyaVilivu • 11,789 subscribers

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Short-range forecasting models make a last-minute move to align with the medium-range forecasts regarding the unsettled weather in #Kenya, especially the coastal strip, tomorrow & Monday. Geo-statonary satellite imagery shows a narrow band of tightly knit storm clouds that looks like an atmospheric river approaching the East African Coast. This atmospheric river lands with huge volumes of precipitable water at the #Kenyan coast tonight, bringing very rainy weather conditions there tomorrow & Monday. There's a chance of flash flooding in some areas at the coast. Further inland in #Nairobi, Central, Mt. Kenya East (leo nimegawanya Mrima 😃), Ukambani & parts of North Eastern, cool-to-chilly, cloudy and showery weather will dominate the weather tomorrow and Monday. Strong south easterlies in the Indian Ocean will do the good job of pushing moisture into Kenya's interior.

Short-range forecasting models make a last-minute move to align with the medium-range forecasts regarding the unsettled weather in #Kenya, especially the coastal strip, tomorrow & Monday. Geo-statonary satellite imagery shows a narrow band of tightly knit storm clouds that looks like an atmospheric river approaching the East African Coast. This atmospheric river lands with huge volumes of precipitable water at the #Kenyan coast tonight, bringing very rainy weather conditions there tomorrow & Monday. There's a chance of flash flooding in some areas at the coast. Further inland in #Nairobi, Central, Mt. Kenya East (leo nimegawanya Mrima 😃), Ukambani & parts of North Eastern, cool-to-chilly, cloudy and showery weather will dominate the weather tomorrow and Monday. Strong south easterlies in the Indian Ocean will do the good job of pushing moisture into Kenya's interior.

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Interesting developments in the Western indian Ocean as the MJO trpical atmospheric wave enters phases 2 & 3. Massive twin cyclones develop in the Indian ocean, off the East African coastline, causing severe disruption of easterly winds, cutting-off moisture transport into Ethiopia, Somalia & much of coastal, Eastern & NE #Kenya for about one week from tomorrow. This will significantly suppress rainfall in these parts of Kenya, as well as Southern/Eastern Ethiopia & Somalia where relentless El Nino powered wet spells have led to very heavy rainfall and flooding in recent weeks. The cyclone in the north will drift towards Southern Yemen and probably make a landfall there on or around 24th October while the other one wil drift southwards and dissipate in the South Western Indian Ocean, North-East of Madagascar. Its outer bands may cause intense rain and storm surges in the Seychelles.

Interesting developments in the Western indian Ocean as the MJO trpical atmospheric wave enters phases 2 & 3. Massive twin cyclones develop in the Indian ocean, off the East African coastline, causing severe disruption of easterly winds, cutting-off moisture transport into Ethiopia, Somalia & much of coastal, Eastern & NE #Kenya for about one week from tomorrow. This will significantly suppress rainfall in these parts of Kenya, as well as Southern/Eastern Ethiopia & Somalia where relentless El Nino powered wet spells have led to very heavy rainfall and flooding in recent weeks. The cyclone in the north will drift towards Southern Yemen and probably make a landfall there on or around 24th October while the other one wil drift southwards and dissipate in the South Western Indian Ocean, North-East of Madagascar. Its outer bands may cause intense rain and storm surges in the Seychelles.

Maithya wa Vilivū

134,459 views • 4 days ago

"Maithya, jua litawaka lini Nairobi tufue nguo?" Kwani weekend mlikuwa wapi ?😀 Here's the sunshine hours model output for this week: As expected, overnight showers/rains in parts of North Eastern, Ukambani, Coast, #Nairobi, Central, Kajiado & Narok came with intense cloudiness this morning, limiting sunshine hours for Monday. It will get warmer again in the #Nairobi Metro Area as the week progresses from tomorrow through Saturday. Wednesday and Satuday will be particularly very sunny with daytime peak temps of at least 28C in Nairobi & environs. Model predictions show that seasonal rains are likely to start early next week. Forecast predicability is high at 80% Watch:

"Maithya, jua litawaka lini Nairobi tufue nguo?" Kwani weekend mlikuwa wapi ?😀 Here's the sunshine hours model output for this week: As expected, overnight showers/rains in parts of North Eastern, Ukambani, Coast, #Nairobi, Central, Kajiado & Narok came with intense cloudiness this morning, limiting sunshine hours for Monday. It will get warmer again in the #Nairobi Metro Area as the week progresses from tomorrow through Saturday. Wednesday and Satuday will be particularly very sunny with daytime peak temps of at least 28C in Nairobi & environs. Model predictions show that seasonal rains are likely to start early next week. Forecast predicability is high at 80% Watch:

Maithya wa Vilivū

91,509 views • 20 days ago

Long video clip alert: Sunshine Hours I'm getting so many queries about the sudden cloudiness & cool/chilly weather in #Nairobi & it's environs. This kind of cold is not the usual July/August kind of cold. You can tell even by the cloud type. Now, back-to-back cold fronts, some as wide as 10,000KM, are pulling Northward from the Antarctic Polar region into the Sub-tropical Atlantic/Indian Oceans & South Africa. Strong south easterly winds that are blowing directly onshore the East African Coast are actively interacting with these fronts in the Southern Indian Ocean, bringing an unseasonal cooling & cloudiness to our region this week. Sunshine Hours & temperatures will drop further tomorrow, Thursday & Friday before getting warmer over the weekend in the #Nairobi Metro area, Ukambani & the Coast. Watch:

Long video clip alert: Sunshine Hours I'm getting so many queries about the sudden cloudiness & cool/chilly weather in #Nairobi & it's environs. This kind of cold is not the usual July/August kind of cold. You can tell even by the cloud type. Now, back-to-back cold fronts, some as wide as 10,000KM, are pulling Northward from the Antarctic Polar region into the Sub-tropical Atlantic/Indian Oceans & South Africa. Strong south easterly winds that are blowing directly onshore the East African Coast are actively interacting with these fronts in the Southern Indian Ocean, bringing an unseasonal cooling & cloudiness to our region this week. Sunshine Hours & temperatures will drop further tomorrow, Thursday & Friday before getting warmer over the weekend in the #Nairobi Metro area, Ukambani & the Coast. Watch:

Maithya wa Vilivū

105,270 views • 1 month ago

El Nino & IOD Update (Greater Horn of #Africa): About 1,800KM off the East African coastline, a peculiar tropical disturbance has been trying to spin off into a tropical cyclone in the Western Indian Ocean since last week, complete with a cluster of thunderstorm cells. It won't amount to anything much for now due to the equatorial coriolis force & the strong West Indian Ocean Monsoon winds. However, the low pressure system accompanying it appears to be pulling in strong lower atmosphere easterly winds from the Eastern Indian Ocean off the coast of Sumatra north West of Australia. These winds are seemingly strengthening as we head into Sept & could be a major booster to the development of a +ve Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as warm waters are pushed towards the Horn of Africa. It will be interesting to see the IOD Mode indices in the coming weeks. The ocean-atmosphere coupling is quite strong across the globe as El Nino continues to intensify in the Pacific. A coincidence of a strong El Nino & +ve IOD phase is expected to bring extremely wet conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa in the forthcoming rainy season.

El Nino & IOD Update (Greater Horn of #Africa): About 1,800KM off the East African coastline, a peculiar tropical disturbance has been trying to spin off into a tropical cyclone in the Western Indian Ocean since last week, complete with a cluster of thunderstorm cells. It won't amount to anything much for now due to the equatorial coriolis force & the strong West Indian Ocean Monsoon winds. However, the low pressure system accompanying it appears to be pulling in strong lower atmosphere easterly winds from the Eastern Indian Ocean off the coast of Sumatra north West of Australia. These winds are seemingly strengthening as we head into Sept & could be a major booster to the development of a +ve Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as warm waters are pushed towards the Horn of Africa. It will be interesting to see the IOD Mode indices in the coming weeks. The ocean-atmosphere coupling is quite strong across the globe as El Nino continues to intensify in the Pacific. A coincidence of a strong El Nino & +ve IOD phase is expected to bring extremely wet conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa in the forthcoming rainy season.

Maithya wa Vilivū

107,964 views • 1 month ago

An impressive, massive upper level trough brought cloudy & chilly weather in the #Kenyan highlands, #Nairobi and South Eastern Counties today. The trough will weaken in the next two or three days and chilly/cool weather conditions will persist in these regions at least up to Wenesday this week before slighly warming up. Watch:

An impressive, massive upper level trough brought cloudy & chilly weather in the #Kenyan highlands, #Nairobi and South Eastern Counties today. The trough will weaken in the next two or three days and chilly/cool weather conditions will persist in these regions at least up to Wenesday this week before slighly warming up. Watch:

Maithya wa Vilivū

57,397 views • 2 months ago

Long clip alert: This week, increased cloudiness due to the recent Madden Julian Oscillation wave across Equatorial Africa & the Indian Ocean will reinforce chilly/cool weather over the highlands East/West of the Rift including #Nairobi Metro Area & parts of South Eastern Counties. Today & tomorrow may be particularly chilly in some places, with very few sunshine hours as shown in the clip. However, Wednesday may be warm, then the cold resumes on Thursday & Friday. It may be warmer on Saturday but chilly on Sunday. Watch: 👇

Long clip alert: This week, increased cloudiness due to the recent Madden Julian Oscillation wave across Equatorial Africa & the Indian Ocean will reinforce chilly/cool weather over the highlands East/West of the Rift including #Nairobi Metro Area & parts of South Eastern Counties. Today & tomorrow may be particularly chilly in some places, with very few sunshine hours as shown in the clip. However, Wednesday may be warm, then the cold resumes on Thursday & Friday. It may be warmer on Saturday but chilly on Sunday. Watch: 👇

Maithya wa Vilivū

61,618 views • 2 months ago

Where are we likely to see heavy afternoon thunderstorms, intense cloud burst & probably hailstorms today in #Kenya? Watch:

Where are we likely to see heavy afternoon thunderstorms, intense cloud burst & probably hailstorms today in #Kenya? Watch:

Maithya wa Vilivū

26,846 views • 1 month ago

This week, influx of cold air from the south reduces significantly. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly predictions indicate reduced overall cloudiness in the #Kenyan highlands inclusing the #Nairobi Metro area. Consequently, we shall see a significant uptick in the average daily temps with highs of 26C to 27C in Nairobi on some days. Tomorrow Tuesday & Thursday may feel quite warm. Slight cooling highly likely over the weekend. Forecast predictability at 80%-90% due to the settled weather we're currently experiencing in the city. Watch:

This week, influx of cold air from the south reduces significantly. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly predictions indicate reduced overall cloudiness in the #Kenyan highlands inclusing the #Nairobi Metro area. Consequently, we shall see a significant uptick in the average daily temps with highs of 26C to 27C in Nairobi on some days. Tomorrow Tuesday & Thursday may feel quite warm. Slight cooling highly likely over the weekend. Forecast predictability at 80%-90% due to the settled weather we're currently experiencing in the city. Watch:

Maithya wa Vilivū

25,993 views • 2 months ago

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