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Tarek Mansour

@mansourtarek_ • 81,390 subscribers

MIT Math Nerd. I love free markets.

Shorts

We just launched gold and silver perpetuals in the US. And commodity derivatives are now our fastest-growing product. Markets started with grain and metals, expanded into rates, indices, and other financial assets, and are now expanding into information itself, pricing not just assets but outcomes about the future. Prediction markets ask questions with defined resolution: What will GDP be this quarter? Who will win tonight? Perps ask continuous questions, with no expiration: Where is gold going? Prediction markets, traditional futures, and perps are built on the same idea: match buyers and sellers, let them compete in an open market, and discover a price. Traders bring different information and beliefs, and that competition produces a price the rest of us can use as a signal. It’s part of a centuries long evolution toward markets as a general-purpose technology for pricing and managing uncertainty. Prediction markets are one frontier of this evolution. Commodity perps are another.

We just launched gold and silver perpetuals in the US. And commodity derivatives are now our fastest-growing product. Markets started with grain and metals, expanded into rates, indices, and other financial assets, and are now expanding into information itself, pricing not just assets but outcomes about the future. Prediction markets ask questions with defined resolution: What will GDP be this quarter? Who will win tonight? Perps ask continuous questions, with no expiration: Where is gold going? Prediction markets, traditional futures, and perps are built on the same idea: match buyers and sellers, let them compete in an open market, and discover a price. Traders bring different information and beliefs, and that competition produces a price the rest of us can use as a signal. It’s part of a centuries long evolution toward markets as a general-purpose technology for pricing and managing uncertainty. Prediction markets are one frontier of this evolution. Commodity perps are another.

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The wait is over: Combos are officially live for everyone on Kalshi! Last week alone they did over $100m in volume. And it's compounding: our app grew 50% in November and we hit another volume record yesterday ~$340m. In traditional financial markets, traders bundle multi-leg options instead of buying separately to get better prices. Combos offer the same price improvement. Like with our other markets, there is no house: when you submit a Combo, traders compete in the open market to take the other side. We keep marching.

The wait is over: Combos are officially live for everyone on Kalshi! Last week alone they did over $100m in volume. And it's compounding: our app grew 50% in November and we hit another volume record yesterday ~$340m. In traditional financial markets, traders bundle multi-leg options instead of buying separately to get better prices. Combos offer the same price improvement. Like with our other markets, there is no house: when you submit a Combo, traders compete in the open market to take the other side. We keep marching.

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This is how Kalshi Q1 board meeting ended. cc Alfred Lin Matt Huang Alex Immerman Luana Lopes Lara Charlie Abhishek Malani

This is how Kalshi Q1 board meeting ended. cc Alfred Lin Matt Huang Alex Immerman Luana Lopes Lara Charlie Abhishek Malani

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How many times have you gone: “I wish I could trade on this” or “What are the odds that happens?” And how many times did you end up frustrated because you could do nothing about it? With Kalshi's latest release, you can now do something about it: Build your own market 👷🏗️

How many times have you gone: “I wish I could trade on this” or “What are the odds that happens?” And how many times did you end up frustrated because you could do nothing about it? With Kalshi's latest release, you can now do something about it: Build your own market 👷🏗️

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Kalshi reporting for duty Hakeem Jeffries

Kalshi reporting for duty Hakeem Jeffries

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No important financial innovation has ever been created without critics. • Credit cards were going to drive “reckless consumer spending” • Mutual funds were seen merely as a way to speculate and risk people’s savings • ETFs were feared because they could increase volatility • Most new types of Derivatives were called “gambling” at launch • Bitcoin is still portrayed as a scam by some Yet, these innovations have ultimately transformed modern finance for the better. That said, criticism and doubts play a crucial role in this process: they help stress test new systems and often constructively encourage them to get better. From day one at Kalshi, we have been conscious of our position in building prediction markets and we carry the responsibility of fostering and preserving trust in them. That is why, today, Kalshi is launching our Customer Protection Hub, as the latest example of our commitment to putting customer safety first. The Hub adds additional layers of safety to our customer protection infrastructure, by enabling new risk managed features like Deposit Caps, Trading Breaks, and Voluntary Opt-outs. These safeguards work in addition to our internal market surveillance team and regulation systems to improve our market integrity. For sports specifically, we are excited to announce our partnership with IC-360, whose data will enhance our Customer Protection Hub’s ability to prevent bad actors and report them to the leagues and relevant regulatory bodies. We hope that our Hub sets a new standard of customer protection for the industry and encourages others to follow suit.

Tarek Mansour

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