Marcos Agustín
@marcosagusstinn • 7,825 subscribers
President, @reieurope | Center for European economic policy, security and foreign affairs.
Videos
🇬🇧 Johnson “Putin must understand that geostrategically, he is finished.” After four years of war, Russia still controls only around 20% of Ukraine. 🔸 Russian forces have suffered approximately 1.4 million casualties. 🔸 Moscow has burned through almost two-thirds of its liquid sovereign wealth reserves. 🔸 Around 40% of federal spending is now absorbed by defence and national security. 🔸 Personal bankruptcies reached a record 568,000 in 2025, rising by approximately 31%. Putin has sacrificed Russia’s people, wealth and economic future for a war he cannot and will not win.
Marcos Agustín1,001,242 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
"Putin has reached a dead end" Russia’s situation is now extremely difficult. 1. Militarily, it is stuck. The chance of controlling Ukraine is zero. 2. Economically, more than two-thirds of Russia’s liquid sovereign wealth fund reserves are gone, the Kremlin is now using more than 40% of the federal budget to sustain the war, while interest rates remain around 15% and inflation above 5%. 3. But strategically, leaving Ukraine would mean admitting a historic Russian failure. That is the only reason this war continues. Europe must keep the pressure until Russia either accepts real security guarantees for Ukraine or chooses, out of imperial pride, to collapse its own country.
Marcos Agustín175,577 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
Carney: “The next world order will likely be built out of Europe.” Europe is entering a geopolitical expansion phase: Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans moving toward future EU accession, deeper agreements with the UK and Canada, and a European NATO defence budget that will exceed €800bn by 2030, surpassing Russia and China in nominal terms. But scale alone is not enough. Europe must complete the single market in services, finance and energy, reduce the innovation gap with the US, and build a unified foreign policy capable of defending European interests.
Marcos Agustín99,194 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
🇩🇪 Merz “Germany is rearming not because of what the US president says, but for its own interests.” By 2030, Germany will become Europe’s biggest military spender, with €180bn+ annually. Europe needs its own unified military policy as its interests will increasingly diverge from the US. The EU must build a unified military-industrial system, joint procurement, common production and a real European foreign policy. Europe cannot remain strategically dependent on other powers’ foreign policy objectives.
Marcos Agustín33,144 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Beevor: Russian rulers have long feared that unless Russia keeps expanding, it will contract. Russia’s real geopolitical strategy should have been the opposite: accept Europe’s core security demands and integrate economically with Europe instead of threatening it since the 2000s. By doing so, Moscow could have balanced its power between Europe and China, selling energy, commodities and industrial inputs to multiple major markets instead of becoming structurally dependent on China and India. Instead, Russia chose to continue its expansionist policy That decision cut its economic ties with Europe, pushed European countries into their largest rearmament since the Second World War, accelerated Europe’s energy independence, and turned Moscow into an economic vassal of China and India.
Marcos Agustín38,945 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
🇨🇳China has the most aggressive expansionist economic policy in the world. In 2025, China recorded a total trade surplus of nearly $1.2tn. Its surplus with the EU reached €360.6bn. Its goods surplus with the US reached $202.1bn. India’s trade deficit with China reached $99.2bn. ASEAN’s deficit with China reached around $276bn. China’s objective across Asia-Pacific is to turn future multi-trillion-dollar economies into dependent markets for Chinese industry. China also accounts for around 57% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s official bilateral debt. If China monopolises the Asia-Pacific and builds structural dependence across Africa, the global balance of power will become unsustainable.
Marcos Agustín18,090 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
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