Mohammad Ali Shabani
@mashabani • 32,168 subscribers
Editor @Amwajmedia (Focus on Iran | Iraq | Arabian Peninsula). Opinions are my own. Retweets ≠ endorsements. I'm here to learn.
Videos
Told Becky Anderson: - IRGC media claim suspension of Iran-US exchanges of messages, but we should be cautious pending official announcement. - Israel may tell Trump that escalation in Lebanon will strengthen his hand vs Iran, but likely aim is to derail Iran-US diplomacy.
Mohammad Ali Shabani89,450 次观看 • 2 个月前
Told Becky Anderson: Iran is going to Geneva to seal a deal with the US. Iran has shown a readiness to only enrich uranium as needed and to not accumulate nuclear materials. Given that solely Tehran Research Reactor needs fuel, Trump can bag concessions Obama could only dream of.
Mohammad Ali Shabani47,726 次观看 • 5 个月前
Told Becky Anderson: - Trump is floating de-escalation focused on South Pars gas field/Qatar's North Dome; Iran may be open to hitting only military sites if all civilian infrastructure off limits. - This war will eventually end and Iran is looking at paving the way for ultimately entering negotiations on better terms than before, and without having to worry about another war in 6 months. - Drawing on Amwaj.media report, explained that Iran was ready to make major concessions in nuclear talks which preceded the war, incl enrichment freeze and zero stockpiling. Trump still went to war, likely because he didn't think Iran would fight back this hard, this long.
Mohammad Ali Shabani39,239 次观看 • 5 个月前
Told Becky Anderson: Iran's foreign minister is in China to meet with his counterpart. If there is to be a deal with the US, there is a potential role for Beijing to play in the nuclear dimension of any accord. Together with Russia, China also has the necessary weight to ensure that Trump exiting another deal won't leave Iran wholly emptyhanded.
Mohammad Ali Shabani22,436 次观看 • 3 个月前
Told Becky Anderson: - Iran's political leadership views naval blockade as US brinkmanship, with deal still within reach. - Key obstacles in talks include future of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. - Iran's strategy of internationalizing effects of war is working in some ways as Trump is divided from European allies who are pushing for diplomacy, not war.
Mohammad Ali Shabani22,019 次观看 • 4 个月前
Told Becky Anderson: - Trump has given himself leeway to step back from his threats by saying that Iran must either make a deal OR open Strait of Hormuz. - Iran is ready for a deal on its nuclear program and Hormuz, but not likely to concede on missiles or regional allies. - Iran wants any end to the war to be definitive and also cover its allies in the region. - If Trump goes ahead with attack on Iranian power grid, important to look at the scope. No single plant is responsible for more than few % of total output and Trump may justify attacks on certain regional nodes by charging that they are linked to IRGC sites.
Mohammad Ali Shabani22,241 次观看 • 4 个月前
There is nothing to cancel since there was never any plan for a meeting in Islamabad today. Told CNN yesterday that Araghchi will discuss framework with Pakistanis, Hormuz with Omanis and ideas for nuclear contention with Russians. Best-case scenario, if Trump shows flexibility on blockade, meeting early next week.
Mohammad Ali Shabani11,814 次观看 • 4 个月前
Told Max Foster: - All signs pointed to Ayatollah Arafi as Ali Khamenei's successor until yesterday, when claims emerged that Mojtaba Khamenei is alive and frontrunner. - Mojtaba's health condition is disputed and hereditary rule would put off even some govt supporters. Installing him as supreme leader would thus be signal that hardline ideologues are ascendant and want to project continuity. - Israel and the US differ in objectives; former wants state collapse while Trump probably wants a deal to prevent regional chaos. - Trump wants Venezuela model, but there's no Delcy in Iran. Even if there were, Israel has no interest in a "Delcy scenario" in Tehran and could target such a figure.
Mohammad Ali Shabani12,288 次观看 • 5 个月前
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