Abhijit Modak (कोकण हवामान)🌞🌦️⛈️

As anticipated, a mesoscale #vortex developed along the East–West monsoon #ShearZone near the #Palghar–#Manor region, significantly enhancing the local monsoon dynamics. 🌧️ The strengthening of this vortex resulted in a sharp pressure fall over the #Mumbai region, with mean sea-level pressure dropping to around 997 hPa. Simultaneously, strong convective winds accompanied the system, with wind gusts of up to 80 km/h reported at #CSMIA, according to #METAR observations around **10:30 AM. From a #rainfall perspective, precipitation associated with such vortices is always challenging to forecast because the heaviest rainfall often becomes highly localized and depends on the exact position and movement of the circulation. Nevertheless, as indicated in the earlier outlook, there was potential for 300 mm-plus rainfall where the vortex became anchored, and that scenario has now materialized. The most intense rainfall overnight was concentrated over the southern quadrant of Mumbai, parts of North #Raigad district, particularly #Panvel, #Khalapur, #Matheran, #Karjat, and the adjoining #Sahyadri Ghat sections, including #Khandala to #Tamhini, where extremely heavy rainfall was recorded. Following the passage of the most intense phase, rainfall has reduced to intermittent drizzle across many areas, accompanied by breezy conditions as the vortex gradually weakens. Looking ahead, #atmospheric conditions remain favourable for heavy rainfall until 7 July, with Raigad district and Mumbai currently appearing best placed for further significant rainfall. Thereafter, rainfall prospects over #Thane and Palghar districts will depend largely on the future movement and positioning of the monsoon shear zone. If the primary vortex-induced event has already peaked, these regions are likely to continue receiving generally heavy rainfall upto 250 mm may be if any, although the probability of another widespread 300 mm-plus event may reduce unless a fresh mesoscale circulation develops. #WeatherAnalysis #WeatherUpdate #KonkanWeather #Maharashtra #July #SWM2026 #Monsoon2026 #MumbaiRains

36,679 Aufrufe