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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger • 41,499 subscribers

Expert in weighing medical evidence, cancer, COVID forecasting & mitigation, health disparities, financial analytics. 120 publications. PhD program director.

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The best estimates are that COVlD continues to kill >100,000 people in the U.S. annually, more than breast and prostate cancer combined. Excess death estimates are even higher.

The best estimates are that COVlD continues to kill >100,000 people in the U.S. annually, more than breast and prostate cancer combined. Excess death estimates are even higher.

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🚨BREAKING 🦠 On Friday, the US CDC arbitrarily shifted higher COVlD levels into lower categories depicted with cooler colors. Much of what was Very High is now "High." What was High is now "Moderate" or "Low." Low is "Very Low." 🔹2 states/territories artificially shifted from High to Moderate (MS, GU) 🔹5 shifted from Moderate to Low (CA, TX, AK, WA, NV) 🔹4 shifted from Low to Very Low (AZ, AR, LA, NC) During intense surges, states will rarely get classified as Very High anymore. Presently, transmission is rising across the US, with a 75% chance of a wave, but states will be depicted in blue (Very Low) much longer, making communities less prepared. #Bluewashing Normally, when the CDC makes a methodology change, they flag it prominently on each of their COVlD monitoring pages. This time, there was no alert and no explanation. Major changes were confined to COVlD, not Influenza A, and not RSV. The questionable change was made in the middle of rising transmission across most of the country; 15 states already have COVlD outbreaks, and others may soon join the ranks. These are serious ethics concerns that warrant investigative journalism. These issues are aggravated by delayed reporting at High/Very High monitoring sites. Sites with 1-week reporting delays get excluded when the CDC calculates current levels. For example, only 16% of the sites online in Texas (3 of 19) report High/Very High levels, but 90% of those with a 1-week reporting delay (18 of 20) have High/Very High levels, leading the state to get classified as "Low" when really High. These issues snowball and can easily push a state down 1-2 categories when experiencing significant COVlD outbreaks. The good news is that the individual wastewater monitoring site data are still valid. The bad news is that the CDC maps and level descriptions will now mislead the casual user. Think: "Good data, bad use of data." At PMC, we told you that if there was any funny business at the CDC, we would warn you right away. We diagnosed the issue immediately and will still report accurate COVlD information. Expect further national news coverage this week. Journalists are welcome to reach out.

🚨BREAKING 🦠 On Friday, the US CDC arbitrarily shifted higher COVlD levels into lower categories depicted with cooler colors. Much of what was Very High is now "High." What was High is now "Moderate" or "Low." Low is "Very Low." 🔹2 states/territories artificially shifted from High to Moderate (MS, GU) 🔹5 shifted from Moderate to Low (CA, TX, AK, WA, NV) 🔹4 shifted from Low to Very Low (AZ, AR, LA, NC) During intense surges, states will rarely get classified as Very High anymore. Presently, transmission is rising across the US, with a 75% chance of a wave, but states will be depicted in blue (Very Low) much longer, making communities less prepared. #Bluewashing Normally, when the CDC makes a methodology change, they flag it prominently on each of their COVlD monitoring pages. This time, there was no alert and no explanation. Major changes were confined to COVlD, not Influenza A, and not RSV. The questionable change was made in the middle of rising transmission across most of the country; 15 states already have COVlD outbreaks, and others may soon join the ranks. These are serious ethics concerns that warrant investigative journalism. These issues are aggravated by delayed reporting at High/Very High monitoring sites. Sites with 1-week reporting delays get excluded when the CDC calculates current levels. For example, only 16% of the sites online in Texas (3 of 19) report High/Very High levels, but 90% of those with a 1-week reporting delay (18 of 20) have High/Very High levels, leading the state to get classified as "Low" when really High. These issues snowball and can easily push a state down 1-2 categories when experiencing significant COVlD outbreaks. The good news is that the individual wastewater monitoring site data are still valid. The bad news is that the CDC maps and level descriptions will now mislead the casual user. Think: "Good data, bad use of data." At PMC, we told you that if there was any funny business at the CDC, we would warn you right away. We diagnosed the issue immediately and will still report accurate COVlD information. Expect further national news coverage this week. Journalists are welcome to reach out.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

381,281 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

COVlD is surging in Texas, leading to school closures and rising Emergency Room visits, disproportionately among babies. We became concerned about the possible surge 3 months ago today, and Texas was the impetus for our early-release of the PMC county-level map.

COVlD is surging in Texas, leading to school closures and rising Emergency Room visits, disproportionately among babies. We became concerned about the possible surge 3 months ago today, and Texas was the impetus for our early-release of the PMC county-level map.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

126,643 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

Central/SE #Texas have been on fire w/COVlD for 21 days. Levels are extremely high in College Station, followed by near Houston, then Waco. The CDC defines Texas as "very low" because 52% of wastewater sites are very low. That misses the public health opportunity.

Central/SE #Texas have been on fire w/COVlD for 21 days. Levels are extremely high in College Station, followed by near Houston, then Waco. The CDC defines Texas as "very low" because 52% of wastewater sites are very low. That misses the public health opportunity.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

69,709 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

PMC Update, June 8, 2026 The CDC reports COVlD levels are "Very Low" across the US. PMC estimates 1 in 300 Americans actively infectious. BUT there's an outbreak in Central/East Texas. We estimate ≈1 in 30 residents in key counties are infectious. Video 👇 THREAD 1/3 🧵

PMC Update, June 8, 2026 The CDC reports COVlD levels are "Very Low" across the US. PMC estimates 1 in 300 Americans actively infectious. BUT there's an outbreak in Central/East Texas. We estimate ≈1 in 30 residents in key counties are infectious. Video 👇 THREAD 1/3 🧵

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

70,019 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

People in #California deserve access to time-sensitive public health data. TikTök blocked this video upload & did not respond to adjudication requests. I have re-uploaded, changing the post text from "public health" to "tofu and yoga" to avoid angering the AI bots.

People in #California deserve access to time-sensitive public health data. TikTök blocked this video upload & did not respond to adjudication requests. I have re-uploaded, changing the post text from "public health" to "tofu and yoga" to avoid angering the AI bots.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

15,301 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 8, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 million new daily infections estimated from wastewater 🔥20 states + DC "High" or Very High" 🔥Up to 3,300 excess deaths expected from this week's infections 🔥Limited access to vaccinations

PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 8, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 million new daily infections estimated from wastewater 🔥20 states + DC "High" or Very High" 🔥Up to 3,300 excess deaths expected from this week's infections 🔥Limited access to vaccinations

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

187,214 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Police removed diabetes scientists from the convention center here in New Orleans today after they attempted to pass out copies of an editorial from a peer-reviewed scientific journal (impact factor = 16.6) that was critical of NIH.

Police removed diabetes scientists from the convention center here in New Orleans today after they attempted to pass out copies of an editorial from a peer-reviewed scientific journal (impact factor = 16.6) that was critical of NIH.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

54,563 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Estimated COVlD levels (U.S.) are their lowest since July 15, 2021 -- nearly 5 years ago. All states are low/very low, except those with limited, delayed, or single-site reporting. The estimated 200,000 new daily infections remain ≈20x Dr. Fauci's description of "normality."

Estimated COVlD levels (U.S.) are their lowest since July 15, 2021 -- nearly 5 years ago. All states are low/very low, except those with limited, delayed, or single-site reporting. The estimated 200,000 new daily infections remain ≈20x Dr. Fauci's description of "normality."

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

76,021 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

2026 Edition of "COVID-19: Things I have Learned (So Far)." 0:00 Intro 2:07 Transmission Persists 4:55 Morbidity & Mortality Persist 23:07 Psychological Defenses, Politics, & $$$ 29:52 Analogy of Big Tobacco 35:04 Multi-Layered Mitigation 58:00 Practicing Community Care

2026 Edition of "COVID-19: Things I have Learned (So Far)." 0:00 Intro 2:07 Transmission Persists 4:55 Morbidity & Mortality Persist 23:07 Psychological Defenses, Politics, & $$$ 29:52 Analogy of Big Tobacco 35:04 Multi-Layered Mitigation 58:00 Practicing Community Care

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

119,266 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

How to use the PMC interactive county-level COVlD map

How to use the PMC interactive county-level COVlD map

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

18,362 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

PMC COVlD Update, May 18, 2026 Levels are flat in a relative "lull" with 1 in 275 people estimated actively infectious. Watch the video for a quick explainer (no audio). For a version with an instrumental background... 1/2

PMC COVlD Update, May 18, 2026 Levels are flat in a relative "lull" with 1 in 275 people estimated actively infectious. Watch the video for a quick explainer (no audio). For a version with an instrumental background... 1/2

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

53,308 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawai'i are experiencing ongoing COVlD outbreaks. Use layered protection, encourage local media to cover COVlD to protect communities, and urge public health programs to promote boosters and offer free N95s and tests.

California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawai'i are experiencing ongoing COVlD outbreaks. Use layered protection, encourage local media to cover COVlD to protect communities, and urge public health programs to promote boosters and offer free N95s and tests.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

18,735 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Is COVlD going away or... Are we about to get slammed by the BA.3.2 variant? 🔥🔥🔥

Is COVlD going away or... Are we about to get slammed by the BA.3.2 variant? 🔥🔥🔥

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

54,748 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths 🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re 🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025 🔥Death data added to the dashboard

PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths 🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re 🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025 🔥Death data added to the dashboard

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

161,409 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The ongoing winter surge will cause millions of #LongCovid cases in the U.S. Dr. Birx warns of "the aerosol nature of the virus," that "it will never be flu," & "to be cavalier about getting repetitive Covid infections is really a huge mistake." h/t @inducekarmaaa

The ongoing winter surge will cause millions of #LongCovid cases in the U.S. Dr. Birx warns of "the aerosol nature of the virus," that "it will never be flu," & "to be cavalier about getting repetitive Covid infections is really a huge mistake." h/t @inducekarmaaa

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

268,028 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

In this week's PMC Update, we walk you through how millions of Americans are about to get "surprise" COVlD-19 holiday infections.

In this week's PMC Update, we walk you through how millions of Americans are about to get "surprise" COVlD-19 holiday infections.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

83,716 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

California COVlD Wave - Day 58 (no audio, instrumental background on another platform)

California COVlD Wave - Day 58 (no audio, instrumental background on another platform)

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

10,456 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

1) 5-yr Anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration 🔥10 waves 🔥Covid mortality rivals lung cancer 🔥8 infections/person by 2030 🔥Long Covid as catastrophic 🔥Death trajectories becoming complex 🔥"During Covid" as anti-science rhetoric 🔥Serious ppl take Covid seriously 🧵

1) 5-yr Anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration 🔥10 waves 🔥Covid mortality rivals lung cancer 🔥8 infections/person by 2030 🔥Long Covid as catastrophic 🔥Death trajectories becoming complex 🔥"During Covid" as anti-science rhetoric 🔥Serious ppl take Covid seriously 🧵

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

144,448 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Long lines for masks and air purifiers in California to combat toxic smoke. If we had a functioning field of public health, this would be the scene at the 9 COVlD hot spots across the US as well.

Long lines for masks and air purifiers in California to combat toxic smoke. If we had a functioning field of public health, this would be the scene at the 9 COVlD hot spots across the US as well.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

24,732 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

PMC COVID Report Week of Feb 10, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 in 67 (1.5%) actively infectious 🔥We're on the 2nd hump of this #CamelWave 🐫 🔥30 states + DC in the CDC high/very high range 🔥>700k daily infections 🔥1.0-3.8 million Long COVlD conditions from the next month's infections

PMC COVID Report Week of Feb 10, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 in 67 (1.5%) actively infectious 🔥We're on the 2nd hump of this #CamelWave 🐫 🔥30 states + DC in the CDC high/very high range 🔥>700k daily infections 🔥1.0-3.8 million Long COVlD conditions from the next month's infections

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

137,946 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr