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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

@michael_hoerger • 40,662 subscribers

Expert in weighing medical evidence, cancer, COVID forecasting & mitigation, health disparities, financial analytics. 120 publications. PhD program director.

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The best estimates are that COVlD continues to kill >100,000 people in the U.S. annually, more than breast and prostate cancer combined. Excess death estimates are even higher.

The best estimates are that COVlD continues to kill >100,000 people in the U.S. annually, more than breast and prostate cancer combined. Excess death estimates are even higher.

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Central/SE #Texas have been on fire w/COVlD for 21 days. Levels are extremely high in College Station, followed by near Houston, then Waco. The CDC defines Texas as "very low" because 52% of wastewater sites are very low. That misses the public health opportunity.

Central/SE #Texas have been on fire w/COVlD for 21 days. Levels are extremely high in College Station, followed by near Houston, then Waco. The CDC defines Texas as "very low" because 52% of wastewater sites are very low. That misses the public health opportunity.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

67,446 просмотров • 18 дней назад

PMC Update, June 8, 2026 The CDC reports COVlD levels are "Very Low" across the US. PMC estimates 1 in 300 Americans actively infectious. BUT there's an outbreak in Central/East Texas. We estimate ≈1 in 30 residents in key counties are infectious. Video 👇 THREAD 1/3 🧵

PMC Update, June 8, 2026 The CDC reports COVlD levels are "Very Low" across the US. PMC estimates 1 in 300 Americans actively infectious. BUT there's an outbreak in Central/East Texas. We estimate ≈1 in 30 residents in key counties are infectious. Video 👇 THREAD 1/3 🧵

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

61,031 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Police removed diabetes scientists from the convention center here in New Orleans today after they attempted to pass out copies of an editorial from a peer-reviewed scientific journal (impact factor = 16.6) that was critical of NIH.

Police removed diabetes scientists from the convention center here in New Orleans today after they attempted to pass out copies of an editorial from a peer-reviewed scientific journal (impact factor = 16.6) that was critical of NIH.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

54,432 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Long lines for masks and air purifiers in California to combat toxic smoke. If we had a functioning field of public health, this would be the scene at the 9 COVlD hot spots across the US as well.

Long lines for masks and air purifiers in California to combat toxic smoke. If we had a functioning field of public health, this would be the scene at the 9 COVlD hot spots across the US as well.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

24,686 просмотров • 19 дней назад

Estimated COVlD levels (U.S.) are their lowest since July 15, 2021 -- nearly 5 years ago. All states are low/very low, except those with limited, delayed, or single-site reporting. The estimated 200,000 new daily infections remain ≈20x Dr. Fauci's description of "normality."

Estimated COVlD levels (U.S.) are their lowest since July 15, 2021 -- nearly 5 years ago. All states are low/very low, except those with limited, delayed, or single-site reporting. The estimated 200,000 new daily infections remain ≈20x Dr. Fauci's description of "normality."

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

76,021 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

PMC COVlD Update, May 18, 2026 Levels are flat in a relative "lull" with 1 in 275 people estimated actively infectious. Watch the video for a quick explainer (no audio). For a version with an instrumental background... 1/2

PMC COVlD Update, May 18, 2026 Levels are flat in a relative "lull" with 1 in 275 people estimated actively infectious. Watch the video for a quick explainer (no audio). For a version with an instrumental background... 1/2

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

53,308 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

2026 Edition of "COVID-19: Things I have Learned (So Far)." 0:00 Intro 2:07 Transmission Persists 4:55 Morbidity & Mortality Persist 23:07 Psychological Defenses, Politics, & $$$ 29:52 Analogy of Big Tobacco 35:04 Multi-Layered Mitigation 58:00 Practicing Community Care

2026 Edition of "COVID-19: Things I have Learned (So Far)." 0:00 Intro 2:07 Transmission Persists 4:55 Morbidity & Mortality Persist 23:07 Psychological Defenses, Politics, & $$$ 29:52 Analogy of Big Tobacco 35:04 Multi-Layered Mitigation 58:00 Practicing Community Care

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

119,161 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 8, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 million new daily infections estimated from wastewater 🔥20 states + DC "High" or Very High" 🔥Up to 3,300 excess deaths expected from this week's infections 🔥Limited access to vaccinations

PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 8, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 million new daily infections estimated from wastewater 🔥20 states + DC "High" or Very High" 🔥Up to 3,300 excess deaths expected from this week's infections 🔥Limited access to vaccinations

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

187,199 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

Is COVlD going away or... Are we about to get slammed by the BA.3.2 variant? 🔥🔥🔥

Is COVlD going away or... Are we about to get slammed by the BA.3.2 variant? 🔥🔥🔥

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

48,472 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

In this week's PMC Update, we walk you through how millions of Americans are about to get "surprise" COVlD-19 holiday infections.

In this week's PMC Update, we walk you through how millions of Americans are about to get "surprise" COVlD-19 holiday infections.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

83,716 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths 🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re 🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025 🔥Death data added to the dashboard

PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths 🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re 🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025 🔥Death data added to the dashboard

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

161,275 просмотров • 1 год назад

The ongoing winter surge will cause millions of #LongCovid cases in the U.S. Dr. Birx warns of "the aerosol nature of the virus," that "it will never be flu," & "to be cavalier about getting repetitive Covid infections is really a huge mistake." h/t @inducekarmaaa

The ongoing winter surge will cause millions of #LongCovid cases in the U.S. Dr. Birx warns of "the aerosol nature of the virus," that "it will never be flu," & "to be cavalier about getting repetitive Covid infections is really a huge mistake." h/t @inducekarmaaa

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

268,028 просмотров • 2 лет назад

1) 5-yr Anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration 🔥10 waves 🔥Covid mortality rivals lung cancer 🔥8 infections/person by 2030 🔥Long Covid as catastrophic 🔥Death trajectories becoming complex 🔥"During Covid" as anti-science rhetoric 🔥Serious ppl take Covid seriously 🧵

1) 5-yr Anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration 🔥10 waves 🔥Covid mortality rivals lung cancer 🔥8 infections/person by 2030 🔥Long Covid as catastrophic 🔥Death trajectories becoming complex 🔥"During Covid" as anti-science rhetoric 🔥Serious ppl take Covid seriously 🧵

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

144,377 просмотров • 1 год назад

PMC COVID Report Week of Feb 10, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 in 67 (1.5%) actively infectious 🔥We're on the 2nd hump of this #CamelWave 🐫 🔥30 states + DC in the CDC high/very high range 🔥>700k daily infections 🔥1.0-3.8 million Long COVlD conditions from the next month's infections

PMC COVID Report Week of Feb 10, 2025 (U.S.) 🔥1 in 67 (1.5%) actively infectious 🔥We're on the 2nd hump of this #CamelWave 🐫 🔥30 states + DC in the CDC high/very high range 🔥>700k daily infections 🔥1.0-3.8 million Long COVlD conditions from the next month's infections

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

137,946 просмотров • 1 год назад

SARS-CoV-2 continues to transmit at high rates presently, especially in middle America. We're in a 12th wave, and what's important to know is that *every* region continues to experience surges sooner or late. We are very much #DuringCOVID. THREAD 🧵1 of 9...

SARS-CoV-2 continues to transmit at high rates presently, especially in middle America. We're in a 12th wave, and what's important to know is that every region continues to experience surges sooner or late. We are very much #DuringCOVID. THREAD 🧵1 of 9...

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

42,977 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

"To be cavalier about getting repetitive Covid infections is really a huge mistake." -Dr. Birx (2024)

"To be cavalier about getting repetitive Covid infections is really a huge mistake." -Dr. Birx (2024)

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

14,624 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

SARS-CoV-2 can be conceptualized as an "accelerated aging" issue, aging the kidney 4 years in the first year following infection. -Ziyad Al-Aly, MD #nephrology #aging

SARS-CoV-2 can be conceptualized as an "accelerated aging" issue, aging the kidney 4 years in the first year following infection. -Ziyad Al-Aly, MD #nephrology #aging

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

155,807 просмотров • 2 лет назад

My best career advice is to reduce your lifetime number of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

My best career advice is to reduce your lifetime number of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

29,908 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Dec 16, 2024 🧵1 of 8 🔹1 in 64 (1.6%) actively infectious in the U.S. 🔹750,000 new daily infections and rising 🔹Highest % increase in transmission in nearly 3 years 🔹10th wave is the "silent surge," coming on late out of nowhere The video will walk you through each of the graphs on the dashboard and covered in this thread. Info for new readers: For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks. Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link. We will have a pre-print out in the next month documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.

PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Dec 16, 2024 🧵1 of 8 🔹1 in 64 (1.6%) actively infectious in the U.S. 🔹750,000 new daily infections and rising 🔹Highest % increase in transmission in nearly 3 years 🔹10th wave is the "silent surge," coming on late out of nowhere The video will walk you through each of the graphs on the dashboard and covered in this thread. Info for new readers: For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks. Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link. We will have a pre-print out in the next month documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

95,151 просмотров • 1 год назад

PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Dec 30, 2024 (U.S.) 🔥1 in 50 people actively infectious 🔥1 in 3 chance of an exposure in a gathering of 20 on NYE 🔥6.7 million new infections per week 🔥>300,000 resulting #LongCOVID conditions/week Info for new readers: For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 1.5 years at The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks. Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link. We will have a pre-print out in the next month documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.

PMC COVID-19 Dashboard, Dec 30, 2024 (U.S.) 🔥1 in 50 people actively infectious 🔥1 in 3 chance of an exposure in a gathering of 20 on NYE 🔥6.7 million new infections per week 🔥>300,000 resulting #LongCOVID conditions/week Info for new readers: For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 1.5 years at The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks. Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link. We will have a pre-print out in the next month documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates. Forecasting is challenging in the context of the current viral evolution, but the real-time estimates of cases are impressively accurate to the best we can evaluate it.

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

86,403 просмотров • 1 год назад