Milk Road Macro
@MilkRoadMacro • 17,679 subscribers
Helping you get smarter about macro investing. Subscribe for free to learn how global markets move Bitcoin, stocks, gold and more. By @MilkRoad
Shorts
Videos
Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs head of commodities and now at Kalo writing research, is watching a physical supply shock in the commodities market. This is a tale of two markets. Paper crude oil was sitting around $100 a barrel while physical crude being delivered into Asia was trading between $130-$170. Products like jet fuel were spiraling above $200. The spread between paper and physical has completely disconnected. On the physical side: a discount airline out of London Gatwick canceled all flights because they couldn't source fuel. The UK just took its last known kerosene shipment with no further arrivals scheduled. Singapore jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel. Rotterdam hit $220. The shortage is now in Thailand, Philippines, New Zealand and Australia. Currie called it "molecular contagion." And here's the critical point: there is no policy fix for this. The supply shock is roughly equal in magnitude to the COVID demand shock. And we all watched what COVID did to global supply chains. Currie's framing: the paper markets have disconnected from reality. When crude is trading at $100 on NYMEX but delivering into Asia at $130-170, someone is wrong. He thinks it's the paper market. The mispricing window doesn't stay open forever. For macro investors, this is exactly the kind of dislocation between financial prices and real-world supply chains that historically creates the biggest moves.
Milk Road Macro24,016 Aufrufe • vor 6 Stunden
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon believes that money being spent on AI right now will NOT produce great returns. The question: with companies at $5 trillion market caps, don't you see a bubble? His exact words: "A lot of the capital being deployed will not produce adequate returns. And a bunch of the capital being deployed will actually not produce any returns." But then the key line: "It's hard to call the timing on these things." This is the Solomon framework: acknowledge the froth, don't pretend every dollar deployed will be productive but don't try to pick the peak. We've seen this pattern before throughout history. Rapid tech acceleration creates intense capital formation. New companies race to capitalize. Some win. Most lose. The opportunity set with AI is enormous. It won't be a straight line. Solomon isn't telling you to sell. He's telling you that the job right now is to figure out which companies are the real winners before the market does. Because by the time it's obvious, the multiple is already in the price. This is exactly what separates the Milk Road PRO analysts from the crowd. They don't wait for the consensus. They called $AMD, $MU, $CRDO and $NBIS months before the big moves. Follow their exact portfolios for $1. Don't navigate this AI cycle alone, link in bio.
Milk Road Macro67,195 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
Mark Cuban has sold majority of his Bitcoin. Cuban originally bought Bitcoin with one thesis in mind: "It was a better version of gold than gold." A hedge against fiat currency losing its value. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin should go up. But that thesis just blew up in his face. During the Iran war, when geopolitical risk was spiking and the dollar was sliding, Bitcoin dropped. Gold went to $5,000. Think about what he was expecting. Bitcoin is priced in dollars. When the dollar falls, Bitcoin becomes cheaper for buyers around the world. Global demand should kick in and push the price up. It didn't happen. Gold did exactly what it was supposed to do as a macro hedge. Bitcoin didn't. And for Cuban, that was the line. The whole premise of holding it was gone. He's more disappointed in Bitcoin than Ethereum. He had already written off memecoins as garbage entirely. This matters beyond just one billionaire's portfolio decision. The "Bitcoin as digital gold" narrative has been the backbone of institutional adoption for years. It's the reason pension funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries started buying. If that hedge thesis is broken, the next buyer at these prices needs a different reason to hold. The honest reality: Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It correlates with tech stocks in a downturn and doesn't decouple when it matters most. Gold doesn't have that problem.
Milk Road Macro894,228 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen
Ken Griffin just revealed the only thing he actually looks for when hiring at Citadel. Not your GPA. Not your pedigree. Not your internship list. He wants one type of person: the athlete who excelled academically. Here's why that combination matters to him. The athlete knows what it takes to win. They've also felt what it's like to lose. That experience of pushing through both, and still showing up, is something you can't learn in a classroom. The academic side tells him something different. It tells him the person knows how to manage their time. That they have the discipline to apply their mind under pressure. That when things get hard, they'll find a way through. Griffin calls it perseverance and grit paired with high aspirations. That's the profile he's building Citadel's AI team around. Think about what that means for where the talent wars in finance and AI are headed. The people running the biggest pots of money in the world aren't just looking for quants anymore.
Milk Road Macro1,451,450 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen
Gavin Baker just spotted a massive contradiction inside the AI market. The valuations across the AI supply chain don't add up when you hold them side by side. - Memory names: trading at 3-5x PE. - Nvidia: trading at a very low PE. - Some accelerator companies: reasonable multiples. - Power and cooling names: discounting a much higher future. These multiples can't all be right at the same time. If power and cooling names are priced correctly, then Nvidia and memory are way too cheap. They're going up a lot from here. If Nvidia and memory are priced correctly, then power and cooling will significantly underperform from here. One side is wrong. Both can't be true. Baker's word for it: the AI market is "cross-sectionally inefficient" right now. For investors, the question isn't just "am I bullish on AI?" The real question is: which part of the stack is priced correctly and which part is priced for a scenario that isn't going to play out? Note: Baker runs Atreides Management, one of the most respected tech-focused growth funds in the world. He doesn't make calls like this lightly. When the best investors in tech spot a cross-sectional mismatch this size, the trade is figuring out which side wins. Our analysts are already positioning inside the AI supply chain. They called $AMD, $MU, $CRDO and $NBIS before the big runs. Follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO, link in bio.
Milk Road Macro162,019 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a 24 year old who turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in just 12 months. His 13F just dropped and it reveals exactly where he's putting that money. Top holdings, all brand new this quarter: SMH (VanEck Semi ETF): $2.04B NVDA: $1.57B ORCL: $1.07B AVGO: $1.01B AMD: $969M MU: $584M TSM: $535M ASML: $494M INTC: $159M But the most interesting move isn't what he bought. It's what he flipped. Last quarter he held a $747M bullish call on Intel. This quarter that position is now a put. He also cut his CoreWeave position from $774M down to $141M. Full exits: Lumentum, Coherent, Tower Semiconductor, Cipher Mining, Hut 8. What he kept and added: the bitcoin miners turning themselves into AI data centers. Applied Digital, Bitfarms, CleanSpark, IREN, Riot. Plus a brand new position in Hive Digital. The thesis writes itself: Long the companies pouring the concrete for the data centers. Cutting exposure to the chips going inside them. The man who wrote the definitive manifesto on AGI just faded the semiconductors building it. Our analysts are watching every 13F release and positioning accordingly. They were early to $AMD, early to $MU, early to $BE. Don’t miss the next call, come join us for just a $1. (link in bio)
Milk Road Macro313,372 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
Ken Griffin just asked the question everyone in AI is too scared to answer. Data center spending in the US this year alone is over $500 billion. Half a trillion dollars. To raise that kind of money, you have to make a promise. And the promise has to be big. "AI needs to be your savior almost. How else are you going to write $500 billion of checks in a single year?" He's not saying AI is fraud. He's saying the hype is structurally necessary. You can't fund a buildout at this scale without narrative that matches it. The real question is what AI actually delivers at the end. In some areas Griffin says it's going to be profound. Call centers. Software engineering productivity. Those are real, measurable, already happening. But in white collar work more broadly, he's more skeptical. A Harvard paper recently coined a term for it: AI Work Slop. Output that looks impressive on the surface. First few sentences read like genuine insight. Then you go deeper and it's all garbage. Griffin's colleague runs their commodities business. Got handed a report generated by an AI engine. First paragraph, genuinely good. The rest, useless. The model that can write a compelling opening can't yet think through the substance underneath it. This is the AI investing tension right now. The infrastructure spend is real. The hype is real. The productivity gains in specific verticals are real. But the blanket assumption that AI transforms every white collar job equally has not been proven yet.
Milk Road Macro125,923 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen
Druckenmiller was asked what separates great investors from everyone else. His answer had nothing to do with intelligence. First: extreme passion. You cannot compete against people who love this business if you don't love it. They will outwork you, outthink you and outcompete you. Second: competitiveness. They have to be sore losers. They have to want to win badly enough that losing is genuinely painful. Then he got to the part most people get wrong. "I haven't even gotten to IQ yet. Anything over 125 or 130 doesn't help you. It's largely superfluous." Beyond a baseline, intelligence stops mattering. The edge is elsewhere. Third: ego that gets checked at the door. You can have one but you cannot let it anchor you to a position. The market does not care what you think you know. When things happen that you didn't anticipate and they always will, you have to be able to change your mind without inventing reasons to stay. Fourth, and the one most people never master: think against the crowd. "If you're in the crowd, those positions are already owned by everyone. It's not easy to fight your emotions and go against the crowd, but that is a big piece of it." Passion. Competitiveness. Humility. Independent thinking. Just those four things, done consistently for decades.
Milk Road Macro101,085 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen
TECH STOCKS ARE CARRYING THE S&P 500 RALLY Here's why according to Mark Newton CMT: The Mag 7 had gone basically sideways for 6-8 months before this rally. When tech roared back, it was a huge deal given how much of the index these names represent. Earnings have been strong and the biggest companies are still pouring money into AI. This kind of capex commitment gives the economy a lot of confidence and that's why we're the S&P 500 rally so hard. Tech continues to carry the stock market.
Milk Road Macro96,176 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen
IRAN’S TOLL SYSTEM IS NOW LIVE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ In the last 24 hours, around 10 ships have made it through. Here’s how the system works: The IRGC is running an informal checkpoint inside the Strait. 1. Ships submit cargo and vessel details through intermediaries 2. If approved, they pay a fee starting at ~$1 per barrel 3.Payments are accepted in Chinese yuan or stablecoins 4. In return, ships receive a permit code, route instructions, and an escort But here’s the bigger story: This isn’t just about tolls. It’s about money and power. By accepting yuan and crypto, Iran is testing an alternative financial system right at the chokepoint that handles 20% of global oil flows. Here's what they're aiming to do: - China gets more global usage of the yuan - Crypto gets a real-world use case - The US risks losing financial leverage at the margin
Milk Road Macro183,855 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
The Strait of Hormuz is now officially shut. Iran has even warned it may fire on any ships attempting to cross it. But here's why the Strait of Hormuz matters: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow 21 mile wide passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through that chokepoint every single day. This is a chokepoint the entire global economy depends on. This appears to be Iran’s strategy: 1. Shut the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Constrict global oil supply. 3. Drive oil prices higher (Brent crude is already at its highest level in two years). 4. Increase inflationary pressure and economic stress globally. 5. Force major economies to pressure the US to de-escalate in exchange for reopening the Strait. It’s economic leverage through geography. Even without matching military scale, controlling a vital trade channel gives Iran the ability to impact global economies. The longer it’s closed, the bigger the problem.
Milk Road Macro194,701 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
LOTS OF MOVEMENT ON HORMUZ (LAST 48 HOURS) A wide range of ships are moving through but focus on the red markers. Those represent tankers carrying crude oil, chemicals, and LNG. Here’s the latest shipping data at Hormuz: 🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5 🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6 🔴 Mar 25 → 🚢 4 🔴 Mar 26 → 🚢 4 🔴 Mar 27 → 🚢 3 🟠 Mar 28 → 🚢 11 🟠 Mar 29 → 🚢 9 🟠 Mar 30 → 🚢 8 🟠 Mar 31 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 01 → 🚢 16 🟠 Apr 02 → 🚢 13 🟠 Apr 03 → 🚢 14 🟠 Apr 04 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 05 → 🚢 10 🟠 Apr 06 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 07 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 08 → 🚢 12 🟠 Apr 09 → 🚢 9 🟠 Apr 10 → 🚢 15 🟠 Apr 11 → 🚢 17 🟠 Apr 12 → 🚢 14 Source: World Insights
Milk Road Macro96,214 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
DO MARKETS KEEP RIPPING IN 2026? Here's what Mark Newton CMT thinks: At the start of the year, his 2026 target for the S&P 500 was $7300. But we already hit that in May. Way ahead of schedule. The rally came faster and harder than expected. Now the question is whether markets consolidate or keep ripping. He expects a Q3 drawdown and then a push back to new all-time highs by year end.
Milk Road Macro23,800 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
Oil service companies could be the sleeper trade here. Energy has been in the spotlight for 2-3 months but capital hasn't actually flowed into the service sector yet. Here's the thesis from Otavio (Tavi) Costa: As oil prices stay elevated, drilling activity is likely to pick up. And when producers drill more, oil service companies make more money. As global production needs increase (especially in North America), these companies win. This trade is still less crowded so there's more room for upside. Direct oil exposure is fine but service companies may be the smarter 3-5 year play.
Milk Road Macro47,239 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
This market rally is genuinely incredible. Since 1926, the S&P has averaged 12% per year. That's 1% per month. This year alone, 91% of trading days have been above that historical daily average. Half those days saw gains 2x or more above normal. In the last 26-27 trading days, 8 of them posted 1%+ gains. If 1% daily gains kept up all year, the market would triple in 12 months. Nobody expects that which means this pace can't hold. That doesn't mean a crash is coming but it's just that the current rate of increase isn't sustainable. Ric Edelman
Milk Road Macro25,111 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen
A 50-year pattern just broke in silver. At the same time: - Banks are weakening - Bonds are breaking - The Fed is already intervening If this plays out, silver won’t just go up… it could go parabolic. Momentum Structural Analysis Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:16 – Is the Stock Market Topping? 06:46 – Banking Cracks & Credit Risks 09:47 – Private Credit: What Treasury Sees 13:19 – Crash vs Slow Market Breakdown 16:35 – Iran vs Tariffs: Same Pattern? 18:55 – Sponsor: Nexo 19:33 – Sponsor: Summ 20:24 – Silver to $500 by Summer? 24:15 – Why Silver Is Breaking Out 28:22 – Physical Silver vs Miners 32:05 – Will Silver Miners Outperform? 35:50 – Old Money System vs Crypto 39:32 – Commodities & Oil Top Outlook 43:18 – Wrap-Up
Milk Road Macro55,322 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
"We had a lot of silver at one time but we don't have it now" Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger explain why they sold their silver holdings in this clip. With silver prices pulling back sharply, this is an important watch. Save this video to stay one step ahead of the market.
Milk Road Macro50,353 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
We lost ~20% of the global oil supply. Prices haven’t fully reacted. Why? Because the shock hasn’t reached you… yet. Here’s the “air pocket” effect most people are missing. Rory Johnston Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:26 – Why $115 Brent Is Still "Too Low" 02:28 – "Detonation In Spacetime" 03:27 – Trump’s Failed Strike Plan 05:17 – Intraday Chaos 06:46 – Largest Supply Shock In History 08:04 – The Hormuz Deficit 09:09 – COVID-level Demand Destruction 10:29 – Rerouting: The Saudi Pipeline 12:14 – SPR Release Offset 13:22 – Removing Sanctions On Water Oil 14:52 – Current Offsets Are Temporary 16:06 – Houthis: Red Sea Risk 17:12 – Tracking The Global Shockwave 18:53 – When Empty Pipelines Hit You 20:19 – The US-Canada Oil Relationship 22:18 – Can't Turn Off Refineries 24:50 – Asia's Jet Fuel & Diesel Epicenter 27:38 – Sponsor: Nexo 28:17 – Beijing’s Export Ban 30:59 – US Squeezing China 32:40 – Force Majeure: The Qatari Crater 34:37 – Gas Field Escalations 35:52 – Iran’s "Game-end" Targets 37:19 – $2M Per Tanker 39:29 – Two Tankers a Day 41:22 – The Danger of Forced Shut-ins 43:08 – Four Months To Restore Production 45:03 – A Crisis Of Lost Time & Bad Faith 46:31 – How To Navigate These Currents 48:44 – Unwinding a Crisis With No Roadmap 50:53 – Helium & Chip Supply Chain Threats 51:34 – Wrap-up
Milk Road Macro27,433 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
Trump vs Powell: The Battle That Could Break the Fed w/ James Lavish The Fed doesn’t lose control when inflation spikes. It loses control when the Treasury can’t fund deficits at market rates. That’s what Trump vs Powell is really about. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Trump vs Powell: Setting the Stage 01:30 – Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve 18:14 – Reserve 18:40 – How Markets Are Reacting 26:00 – Lessons From the 2019 Repo Crisis 37:00 – $BTC and Gold vs Dollar Debasement 44:50 – Wrap-Up
Milk Road Macro36,698 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
Debasement, Inflation, and Investing in the Era of Fiscal Dominance w/ Vincent Deluard The Fed is no longer independent. The Treasury runs the show now. Vincent breaks down what ‘fiscal dominance’ means and why it’s the most important macro shift no one is pricing in. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:40 – What Is the Debasement Trade? 05:15 – Why Gold Is Exploding 09:04 – The Fed’s Next Move 13:19 – Fiscal vs Monetary Power 17:42 – Why the Fed Got Political 21:16 – The 2% Inflation Lie 26:17 – How the Fed Took Over 30:30 – Global Capital Is Shifting 35:30 – How to Invest in Debasement 41:11 – Building an Anti-AI Portfolio 45:56 – Wrap-Up
Milk Road Macro50,497 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten