Milk Road Macro
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Leopold Aschenbrenner is a 24 year old who turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in just 12 months. His 13F just dropped and it reveals exactly where he's putting that money. Top holdings, all brand new this quarter: SMH (VanEck Semi ETF): $2.04B NVDA: $1.57B ORCL: $1.07B AVGO: $1.01B AMD: $969M MU: $584M TSM: $535M ASML: $494M INTC: $159M But the most interesting move isn't what he bought. It's what he flipped. Last quarter he held a $747M bullish call on Intel. This quarter that position is now a put. He also cut his CoreWeave position from $774M down to $141M. Full exits: Lumentum, Coherent, Tower Semiconductor, Cipher Mining, Hut 8. What he kept and added: the bitcoin miners turning themselves into AI data centers. Applied Digital, Bitfarms, CleanSpark, IREN, Riot. Plus a brand new position in Hive Digital. The thesis writes itself: Long the companies pouring the concrete for the data centers. Cutting exposure to the chips going inside them. The man who wrote the definitive manifesto on AGI just faded the semiconductors building it. Our analysts are watching every 13F release and positioning accordingly. They were early to $AMD, early to $MU, early to $BE. Don’t miss the next call, come join us for just a $1. (link in bio)
Milk Road Macro313,372 次观看 • 3 个月前
Gavin Baker just spotted a massive contradiction inside the AI market. The valuations across the AI supply chain don't add up when you hold them side by side. - Memory names: trading at 3-5x PE. - Nvidia: trading at a very low PE. - Some accelerator companies: reasonable multiples. - Power and cooling names: discounting a much higher future. These multiples can't all be right at the same time. If power and cooling names are priced correctly, then Nvidia and memory are way too cheap. They're going up a lot from here. If Nvidia and memory are priced correctly, then power and cooling will significantly underperform from here. One side is wrong. Both can't be true. Baker's word for it: the AI market is "cross-sectionally inefficient" right now. For investors, the question isn't just "am I bullish on AI?" The real question is: which part of the stack is priced correctly and which part is priced for a scenario that isn't going to play out? Note: Baker runs Atreides Management, one of the most respected tech-focused growth funds in the world. He doesn't make calls like this lightly. When the best investors in tech spot a cross-sectional mismatch this size, the trade is figuring out which side wins. Our analysts are already positioning inside the AI supply chain. They called $AMD, $MU, $CRDO and $NBIS before the big runs. Follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO, link in bio.
Milk Road Macro162,479 次观看 • 3 个月前
Stan Druckenmiller just explained the one rule that separates great investors from everyone else. "If the reason I bought a stock is no longer the case, I don't care what I paid for it." No anchoring to your cost basis. No waiting to break even. Clean slate. He bought at $60. It drops to $50. Most investors sit paralyzed waiting to get back to where they started. Druckenmiller has zero emotion about it and sells immediately. "I just don't care what I paid for a stock. It's absolutely irrelevant to my investment process going forward." This is actually what support and resistance on a chart is measuring. Resistance at $60 means a crowd of people bought at $60, watched it fall, and have been waiting three or four years just to break even. While they waited, they missed everything that was going up the whole time. Anchoring to your cost basis is one of the most expensive habits in investing. But Druckenmiller pairs this with something most people struggle to do at the same time: concentration. "Not being afraid of concentration is a big reason for my success." He plays across five buckets: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and credit. When one market has no clear edge, he finds one that does and sizes up there instead. Bear market in equities? The real action moves to bonds and currencies. He just follows it. Unemotional about losses. Concentrated when he has conviction. Flexible across markets. That combination is what kept him from ever having a down year. Our analysts use the same discipline sizing into high conviction positions across sectors. They were early to $AMD, $MU, $BE and $CRDO before their big run ups. You can follow their exact portfolios for $1 at Milk Road PRO. (link in bio)
Milk Road Macro170,012 次观看 • 3 个月前
IRAN’S TOLL SYSTEM IS NOW LIVE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ In the last 24 hours, around 10 ships have made it through. Here’s how the system works: The IRGC is running an informal checkpoint inside the Strait. 1. Ships submit cargo and vessel details through intermediaries 2. If approved, they pay a fee starting at ~$1 per barrel 3.Payments are accepted in Chinese yuan or stablecoins 4. In return, ships receive a permit code, route instructions, and an escort But here’s the bigger story: This isn’t just about tolls. It’s about money and power. By accepting yuan and crypto, Iran is testing an alternative financial system right at the chokepoint that handles 20% of global oil flows. Here's what they're aiming to do: - China gets more global usage of the yuan - Crypto gets a real-world use case - The US risks losing financial leverage at the margin
Milk Road Macro183,885 次观看 • 5 个月前
Ken Griffin just asked the question everyone in AI is too scared to answer. Data center spending in the US this year alone is over $500 billion. Half a trillion dollars. To raise that kind of money, you have to make a promise. And the promise has to be big. "AI needs to be your savior almost. How else are you going to write $500 billion of checks in a single year?" He's not saying AI is fraud. He's saying the hype is structurally necessary. You can't fund a buildout at this scale without narrative that matches it. The real question is what AI actually delivers at the end. In some areas Griffin says it's going to be profound. Call centers. Software engineering productivity. Those are real, measurable, already happening. But in white collar work more broadly, he's more skeptical. A Harvard paper recently coined a term for it: AI Work Slop. Output that looks impressive on the surface. First few sentences read like genuine insight. Then you go deeper and it's all garbage. Griffin's colleague runs their commodities business. Got handed a report generated by an AI engine. First paragraph, genuinely good. The rest, useless. The model that can write a compelling opening can't yet think through the substance underneath it. This is the AI investing tension right now. The infrastructure spend is real. The hype is real. The productivity gains in specific verticals are real. But the blanket assumption that AI transforms every white collar job equally has not been proven yet.
Milk Road Macro125,923 次观看 • 3 个月前
The Strait of Hormuz is now officially shut. Iran has even warned it may fire on any ships attempting to cross it. But here's why the Strait of Hormuz matters: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow 21 mile wide passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through that chokepoint every single day. This is a chokepoint the entire global economy depends on. This appears to be Iran’s strategy: 1. Shut the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Constrict global oil supply. 3. Drive oil prices higher (Brent crude is already at its highest level in two years). 4. Increase inflationary pressure and economic stress globally. 5. Force major economies to pressure the US to de-escalate in exchange for reopening the Strait. It’s economic leverage through geography. Even without matching military scale, controlling a vital trade channel gives Iran the ability to impact global economies. The longer it’s closed, the bigger the problem.
Milk Road Macro194,809 次观看 • 6 个月前
Druckenmiller was asked what separates great investors from everyone else. His answer had nothing to do with intelligence. First: extreme passion. You cannot compete against people who love this business if you don't love it. They will outwork you, outthink you and outcompete you. Second: competitiveness. They have to be sore losers. They have to want to win badly enough that losing is genuinely painful. Then he got to the part most people get wrong. "I haven't even gotten to IQ yet. Anything over 125 or 130 doesn't help you. It's largely superfluous." Beyond a baseline, intelligence stops mattering. The edge is elsewhere. Third: ego that gets checked at the door. You can have one but you cannot let it anchor you to a position. The market does not care what you think you know. When things happen that you didn't anticipate and they always will, you have to be able to change your mind without inventing reasons to stay. Fourth, and the one most people never master: think against the crowd. "If you're in the crowd, those positions are already owned by everyone. It's not easy to fight your emotions and go against the crowd, but that is a big piece of it." Passion. Competitiveness. Humility. Independent thinking. Just those four things, done consistently for decades.
Milk Road Macro101,085 次观看 • 3 个月前
TECH STOCKS ARE CARRYING THE S&P 500 RALLY Here's why according to Mark Newton CMT: The Mag 7 had gone basically sideways for 6-8 months before this rally. When tech roared back, it was a huge deal given how much of the index these names represent. Earnings have been strong and the biggest companies are still pouring money into AI. This kind of capex commitment gives the economy a lot of confidence and that's why we're the S&P 500 rally so hard. Tech continues to carry the stock market.
Milk Road Macro96,176 次观看 • 3 个月前
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon believes that money being spent on AI right now will NOT produce great returns. The question: with companies at $5 trillion market caps, don't you see a bubble? His exact words: "A lot of the capital being deployed will not produce adequate returns. And a bunch of the capital being deployed will actually not produce any returns." But then the key line: "It's hard to call the timing on these things." This is the Solomon framework: acknowledge the froth, don't pretend every dollar deployed will be productive but don't try to pick the peak. We've seen this pattern before throughout history. Rapid tech acceleration creates intense capital formation. New companies race to capitalize. Some win. Most lose. The opportunity set with AI is enormous. It won't be a straight line. Solomon isn't telling you to sell. He's telling you that the job right now is to figure out which companies are the real winners before the market does. Because by the time it's obvious, the multiple is already in the price. This is exactly what separates the Milk Road PRO analysts from the crowd. They don't wait for the consensus. They called $AMD, $MU, $CRDO and $NBIS months before the big moves. Follow their exact portfolios for $1. Don't navigate this AI cycle alone, link in bio.
Milk Road Macro73,809 次观看 • 3 个月前
LOTS OF MOVEMENT ON HORMUZ (LAST 48 HOURS) A wide range of ships are moving through but focus on the red markers. Those represent tankers carrying crude oil, chemicals, and LNG. Here’s the latest shipping data at Hormuz: 🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132 🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128 🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98 🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18 🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7 🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0 🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1 🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2 🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3 🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5 🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6 🔴 Mar 25 → 🚢 4 🔴 Mar 26 → 🚢 4 🔴 Mar 27 → 🚢 3 🟠 Mar 28 → 🚢 11 🟠 Mar 29 → 🚢 9 🟠 Mar 30 → 🚢 8 🟠 Mar 31 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 01 → 🚢 16 🟠 Apr 02 → 🚢 13 🟠 Apr 03 → 🚢 14 🟠 Apr 04 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 05 → 🚢 10 🟠 Apr 06 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 07 → 🚢 11 🟠 Apr 08 → 🚢 12 🟠 Apr 09 → 🚢 9 🟠 Apr 10 → 🚢 15 🟠 Apr 11 → 🚢 17 🟠 Apr 12 → 🚢 14 Source: World Insights
Milk Road Macro96,214 次观看 • 4 个月前
Charlie Munger just summed up the only real edge in long-term investing. If you're going to invest in stocks or real estate for the long term, there will be periods of agony. There will be periods of boom. He quoted Kipling: "Only if you can treat those two impostors just the same." Boom and bust are both impostors. The boom makes you think it'll last forever. The bust makes you think it's all over. Neither is true. Both will pass. "Sometimes it's night and sometimes it's daylight. Sometimes it's a boom. Sometimes it's a bust. I just believe in doing as well as you can and keep going as long as they let you." That's the whole strategy. Not market timing. Not macro calls. Not rotating in and out. Just doing as well as you can and staying in the game. Munger held Berkshire through multiple 50% drawdowns. He watched the companies he owned get cut in half. Multiple times. He didn't sell. He kept going. The investors who build real wealth over decades aren't the ones who called the top or bottomed the market. They're the ones who stayed invested through the night and were still there when daylight came back. Right now, markets are near all-time highs after recovering from the April tariff panic faster than almost anyone predicted. The people who sold at the bottom are now trying to figure out when to get back in. The people who held are already there. That's Munger's whole lesson in one quarter.
Milk Road Macro68,329 次观看 • 3 个月前
Druckenmiller was asked what separates great investors from everyone else. His answer had nothing to do with intelligence. First: extreme passion. You cannot compete against people who love this business if you don't love it. They will outwork you, outthink you and outcompete you. Second: competitiveness. They have to be sore losers. They have to want to win badly enough that losing is genuinely painful. Then he got to the part most people get wrong. "I haven't even gotten to IQ yet. Anything over 125 or 130 doesn't help you. It's largely superfluous." Beyond a baseline, intelligence stops mattering. The edge is elsewhere. Third: ego that gets checked at the door. You can have one but you cannot let it anchor you to a position. The market does not care what you think you know. When things happen that you didn't anticipate and they always will, you have to be able to change your mind without inventing reasons to stay. Fourth, and the one most people never master: think against the crowd. "If you're in the crowd, those positions are already owned by everyone. It's not easy to fight your emotions and go against the crowd, but that is a big piece of it." Passion. Competitiveness. Humility. Independent thinking. Just those four things, done consistently for decades.
Milk Road Macro51,721 次观看 • 3 个月前
Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.
Milk Road Macro55,169 次观看 • 3 个月前
Jeff Bezos just explained the mental framework that made him one of the richest humans alive. He called it the regret minimization framework. He was working a job he loved on Wall Street when the internet was just taking off. He told his boss he was going to quit and start an internet bookstore. His boss told him it sounded like a great idea but for someone without a good job. Bezos went home and thought about it for two days. Then he projected himself forward to age 80. And asked: what would I regret more? "The biggest regrets are acts of omission. Paths not taken." He realized there was a 100% chance he'd regret not trying. That single framework sent him to Seattle in the back of a car, typing the Amazon business plan on a laptop.
Milk Road Macro36,305 次观看 • 3 个月前
Howard Marks has one mantra at the core of his investing thesis: Don't sell your compounders. He walked through the Amazon example. Stock peaked at $90 in 1999 during the tech bubble but then crashed to $6 in 2001. Down 93%. If you were smart enough to buy at $6, would you have sold at $12 after doubling? Most people would. What if you held to $60, up 10x? Most people would sell there. What if you made it to $600, up 100x? Almost everyone sells at that point. Here's the problem: Amazon eventually hit $3,300. If you sold at $600, thinking you'd nailed a 100x return, you left 85% of the total gain on the table. 85%. Marks' point: the natural inclination to sell when things are up is one of the most expensive instincts in investing. Buffett says he made all his money on 12 ideas across 70 years of investing. Charlie Munger said he made all of his money on just 4 ideas. Think about what that means. Great ideas are genuinely scarce. Real compounders, businesses that can keep growing for decades, are rare. When you have one, the job is not to optimize the exit. The job is to hold it. The big mistake isn't buying too early. It isn't buying at the wrong price. The big mistake is getting off too soon.
Milk Road Macro22,141 次观看 • 3 个月前
The market keeps treating the Strait of Hormuz like a temporary inconvenience. Jim Bianco thinks that's a massive mistake. Global oil inventories are being drained to keep prices under control. If this disruption lasts longer than expected, inventories hit operational minimums and force demand destruction. Translation: oil could go WAY higher than markets are pricing in. Treating a structural problem like a temporary one is how you get blindsided. Every single time. FT John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:32 – Iran Exits Peace Talks 05:40 – Oil Shock Coming? 07:41 – How Every Crisis Starts 11:42 – Warsh’s First Big Test 15:40 – Inside The New Fed 17:21 – Can Warsh Shrink The Fed? 21:57 – Sponsor: Cape 22:42 – Sponsor: Nexo 23:20 – Why Stocks Keep Rising 26:23 – Is AI Actually Overvalued? 32:56 – The AI IPO Tsunami 38:34 – Sponsor: Kalshi 39:16 – Jim Bianco’s 2026 Playbook 43:04 – Final Thoughts
Milk Road Macro21,873 次观看 • 3 个月前
This market rally is genuinely incredible. Since 1926, the S&P has averaged 12% per year. That's 1% per month. This year alone, 91% of trading days have been above that historical daily average. Half those days saw gains 2x or more above normal. In the last 26-27 trading days, 8 of them posted 1%+ gains. If 1% daily gains kept up all year, the market would triple in 12 months. Nobody expects that which means this pace can't hold. That doesn't mean a crash is coming but it's just that the current rate of increase isn't sustainable. Ric Edelman
Milk Road Macro25,111 次观看 • 3 个月前
DO MARKETS KEEP RIPPING IN 2026? Here's what Mark Newton CMT thinks: At the start of the year, his 2026 target for the S&P 500 was $7300. But we already hit that in May. Way ahead of schedule. The rally came faster and harder than expected. Now the question is whether markets consolidate or keep ripping. He expects a Q3 drawdown and then a push back to new all-time highs by year end.
Milk Road Macro23,838 次观看 • 3 个月前
We lost ~20% of the global oil supply. Prices haven’t fully reacted. Why? Because the shock hasn’t reached you… yet. Here’s the “air pocket” effect most people are missing. Rory Johnston Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:26 – Why $115 Brent Is Still "Too Low" 02:28 – "Detonation In Spacetime" 03:27 – Trump’s Failed Strike Plan 05:17 – Intraday Chaos 06:46 – Largest Supply Shock In History 08:04 – The Hormuz Deficit 09:09 – COVID-level Demand Destruction 10:29 – Rerouting: The Saudi Pipeline 12:14 – SPR Release Offset 13:22 – Removing Sanctions On Water Oil 14:52 – Current Offsets Are Temporary 16:06 – Houthis: Red Sea Risk 17:12 – Tracking The Global Shockwave 18:53 – When Empty Pipelines Hit You 20:19 – The US-Canada Oil Relationship 22:18 – Can't Turn Off Refineries 24:50 – Asia's Jet Fuel & Diesel Epicenter 27:38 – Sponsor: Nexo 28:17 – Beijing’s Export Ban 30:59 – US Squeezing China 32:40 – Force Majeure: The Qatari Crater 34:37 – Gas Field Escalations 35:52 – Iran’s "Game-end" Targets 37:19 – $2M Per Tanker 39:29 – Two Tankers a Day 41:22 – The Danger of Forced Shut-ins 43:08 – Four Months To Restore Production 45:03 – A Crisis Of Lost Time & Bad Faith 46:31 – How To Navigate These Currents 48:44 – Unwinding a Crisis With No Roadmap 50:53 – Helium & Chip Supply Chain Threats 51:34 – Wrap-up
Milk Road Macro27,433 次观看 • 5 个月前
Trump vs Powell: The Battle That Could Break the Fed w/ James Lavish The Fed doesn’t lose control when inflation spikes. It loses control when the Treasury can’t fund deficits at market rates. That’s what Trump vs Powell is really about. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Trump vs Powell: Setting the Stage 01:30 – Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve 18:14 – Reserve 18:40 – How Markets Are Reacting 26:00 – Lessons From the 2019 Repo Crisis 37:00 – $BTC and Gold vs Dollar Debasement 44:50 – Wrap-Up
Milk Road Macro36,698 次观看 • 7 个月前