More Births

A WIDE-RANGING CONVERSATION ON FALLING BIRTHRATES AND THE FUTURE WITH LEADING FUTURIST ROBIN HANSON Robin Hanson challenges me with hard questions as we explore the future of a low-birthrate world and whether and how we will turn things around. He is skeptical while I find reasons for hope. 2:40 We have lived in a world of continuous progress and are unprepared for a world where progress and growth ends 8:24 The loss of liberal and progressive values and a future world dominated by illiberal groups 11:50 Risk of losing technology when the most high-tech countries are shrinking fastest 14:40 Will humanity manage to reach out into the galaxy? 20:50 Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome did not solve fertility collapse. But we have advantages: better communication, a lower bar (replacement fertility for us is 2.1, not 6.0 like it was for the Romans due to high mortality), and reproductive technologies. 24:00 Big tent pronatalism. If we have a common pro-natal belief, different types of people in a free society can come up with their own pathways and solutions. 30:00 The case of Israel, where deep pronatal belief overcomes high education, high density, high technology, and high GDP, which are all negative for fertility 31:00 We have a single globalized culture, which is currently somewhat anti-natal. But I argue it is possible for global culture to become more pronatal. Paul Ehrlich showed it is possible to shift global culture in this way, so it should be possible to shift it back! 34:00 Robin Hanson’s idea: pay parents a share of their own children’s tax revenues 47:00 Mongolia is an example of a country that intentionally became pronatal. Fertility rates went way up while Mongolia was getting richer! 50:00 The causes of the Baby Boom 1:00:00 How Japan’s pronatalism has made a positive difference as compared to its neighbors. 1:05:00 How Victorian England had an intentionally pro-natal culture, while 1800s France had the opposite, and the big difference it made. 1:07:00 The Laestadian Lutherans, a highly fertility Scandinavian religious group that is also well-integrated into society 1:10:45 How France after WWII became intentionally pronatal, and became a fertility leader in Europe