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Gene Munster

@munster_gene • 104,770 subscribers

Managing Partner @deepwatermgmt. Investing in tech-driven growth. All views/opinions are personal and not investment advice. 🚀

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$AMZN message received: we’re an AI company. Don’t worry about bots threatening retail, AWS will be on fire for years.

$AMZN message received: we’re an AI company. Don’t worry about bots threatening retail, AWS will be on fire for years.

42,848 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

Investors are missing the bigger point: $AAPL's December revenue guidance was better than the Street expected. That’s more important than slightly softer margin guidance. P.S. Ternus doesn’t want to talk about personalized agents.

Investors are missing the bigger point: $AAPL's December revenue guidance was better than the Street expected. That’s more important than slightly softer margin guidance. P.S. Ternus doesn’t want to talk about personalized agents.

20,491 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

I expect shares of $META to be flat to down on the Meta Connect keynote, given we didn’t get much on Muse adoption. What we got that was important is Zuck’s vision that all that matters to the company long term is Muse. Bad news for $GOOG.

I expect shares of $META to be flat to down on the Meta Connect keynote, given we didn’t get much on Muse adoption. What we got that was important is Zuck’s vision that all that matters to the company long term is Muse. Bad news for $GOOG.

77,063 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Don't get caught up in capex noise or the concept that $SPCX is an AI and Space business. They're the worlds only sovereign AI company and early in building the what I believe will be the world's most valuable company.

Don't get caught up in capex noise or the concept that $SPCX is an AI and Space business. They're the worlds only sovereign AI company and early in building the what I believe will be the world's most valuable company.

134,338 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Personal AI is a bigger threat to Google than ChatGPT ever was. Surprisingly, shares of $GOOG are up 7% since Muse launched, versus a 3% gain for the Nasdaq. ChatGPT mostly answered questions Google wasn't monetizing anyway. Assistants transact. Google built a $250B search business on routing those transactions. Google’s response is Task, a Gemini feature formerly known as Spark. The question is: can Google do with Task what it did with AI Overviews and AI Mode by successfully redirecting Search traffic to its own AI features?

Personal AI is a bigger threat to Google than ChatGPT ever was. Surprisingly, shares of $GOOG are up 7% since Muse launched, versus a 3% gain for the Nasdaq. ChatGPT mostly answered questions Google wasn't monetizing anyway. Assistants transact. Google built a $250B search business on routing those transactions. Google’s response is Task, a Gemini feature formerly known as Spark. The question is: can Google do with Task what it did with AI Overviews and AI Mode by successfully redirecting Search traffic to its own AI features?

35,865 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

Get ready for an AI tsunami. $NVDA’s CY27 revenue guide means the AI brain next year will be about 40% bigger than I thought 24 hours ago, which means the distribution will be greater than I previously expected.

Get ready for an AI tsunami. $NVDA’s CY27 revenue guide means the AI brain next year will be about 40% bigger than I thought 24 hours ago, which means the distribution will be greater than I previously expected.

99,287 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

FSD is at an inflection point and traditional auto doesn’t have an answer. $TSLA

FSD is at an inflection point and traditional auto doesn’t have an answer. $TSLA

22,891 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

$TSLA shares down 6% on the huge delivery beat for three reasons. The biggest was buy on the rumor. The second is a question of how much did high gas prices help the number and third, the ending of the DOGE headwind (Elon left in May 25). Bottom line: The EV winter that started in March of 2024 is ending. Even backing out those one time benefits, it still was a monster delivery number, likely up 20% plus vs. up 6% in March.

$TSLA shares down 6% on the huge delivery beat for three reasons. The biggest was buy on the rumor. The second is a question of how much did high gas prices help the number and third, the ending of the DOGE headwind (Elon left in May 25). Bottom line: The EV winter that started in March of 2024 is ending. Even backing out those one time benefits, it still was a monster delivery number, likely up 20% plus vs. up 6% in March.

145,476 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

The EV winter for Tesla is ending. The EV ice age for traditional auto is just beginning. $TSLA Sep deliveries down 2% y/y. GM and Ford down 75%.

The EV winter for Tesla is ending. The EV ice age for traditional auto is just beginning. $TSLA Sep deliveries down 2% y/y. GM and Ford down 75%.

42,225 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Apple's AI risk isn't the iPhone losing out. It's getting boxed out of the services upside. $AAPL If people lock into $META Muse or $SPCX Grokbot first, get their lives connected and workflows set up, and start paying $20+ per month, it will be harder to get them to switch to using Siri in any meaningful way. Siri can be a great personal AI, but Apple needs to move faster. From our Apple episode of Fathom with Doug Clinton.

Apple's AI risk isn't the iPhone losing out. It's getting boxed out of the services upside. $AAPL If people lock into $META Muse or $SPCX Grokbot first, get their lives connected and workflows set up, and start paying $20+ per month, it will be harder to get them to switch to using Siri in any meaningful way. Siri can be a great personal AI, but Apple needs to move faster. From our Apple episode of Fathom with Doug Clinton.

29,581 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

I went into today's $AAPL event thinking the foldable iPhone was going to be a rounding error for growth. After seeing the iPhone Duo, I’ve changed my mind.

I went into today's $AAPL event thinking the foldable iPhone was going to be a rounding error for growth. After seeing the iPhone Duo, I’ve changed my mind.

51,744 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

While TSLA shares will likely be down tomorrow, the long term story continues to improve. Elon is all in on capex, FSD adoption is accelerating, Robotaxi is rolling out slowly to prioritize safety before scaling, and the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger just inched higher.

While TSLA shares will likely be down tomorrow, the long term story continues to improve. Elon is all in on capex, FSD adoption is accelerating, Robotaxi is rolling out slowly to prioritize safety before scaling, and the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger just inched higher.

70,456 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

$TSLA is down because they slightly missed March delivery expectations.That doesn't change the takeaway. March deliveries were the first solid read on underlying demand; they grew without the help of tax credits, and growth going forward should quicken. Over the past two years, the top five carmakers have reduced EV investments by an average of 35%. I expect those reductions to be costly long-term. Below is a deep dive.

$TSLA is down because they slightly missed March delivery expectations.That doesn't change the takeaway. March deliveries were the first solid read on underlying demand; they grew without the help of tax credits, and growth going forward should quicken. Over the past two years, the top five carmakers have reduced EV investments by an average of 35%. I expect those reductions to be costly long-term. Below is a deep dive.

129,192 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

$AAPL's “Welcome Home” announcements today should add just under 1% to FY27 revenue. More important is the accelerating pace of product announcements. The “Home” segment represents new revenue for Apple, but the biggest incremental consumer opportunity over the next five years is personalized bots, a category in which Apple has yet to make any announcements, as it’s just getting the Siri chatbot out the door.

$AAPL's “Welcome Home” announcements today should add just under 1% to FY27 revenue. More important is the accelerating pace of product announcements. The “Home” segment represents new revenue for Apple, but the biggest incremental consumer opportunity over the next five years is personalized bots, a category in which Apple has yet to make any announcements, as it’s just getting the Siri chatbot out the door.

16,774 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

The most underappreciated data point on MU’s earnings call was that the number of five-year SCAs increased from one last quarter to seven this quarter. That’s significant because it suggests customers expect this buildout to last for at least five years and want greater pricing visibility over that time frame.

The most underappreciated data point on MU’s earnings call was that the number of five-year SCAs increased from one last quarter to seven this quarter. That’s significant because it suggests customers expect this buildout to last for at least five years and want greater pricing visibility over that time frame.

64,819 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

$TSLA sold off on the increased capex comments. It should have traded up because it supports the company’s long-term vision:

$TSLA sold off on the increased capex comments. It should have traded up because it supports the company’s long-term vision:

80,356 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

The fact that $TSLA is disclosing FSD subscriptions is all you need to know about its progress. That progress makes Robotaxi expansion a reality.

The fact that $TSLA is disclosing FSD subscriptions is all you need to know about its progress. That progress makes Robotaxi expansion a reality.

81,181 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Beyond the headline of next week’s $TSLA deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago. Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla a bigger opportunity, especially in the US where we don’t have BYD.

Beyond the headline of next week’s $TSLA deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago. Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla a bigger opportunity, especially in the US where we don’t have BYD.

63,120 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten