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Nick Timiraos

@NickTimiraos • 493,554 subscribers

Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”

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Fed governor Chris Waller on verbal guidance to shape expectations of the near-term rate path: "There's a role for it when you need it.... I can't think of anything that's more forward guidance than what happened last week."

Fed governor Chris Waller on verbal guidance to shape expectations of the near-term rate path: "There's a role for it when you need it.... I can't think of anything that's more forward guidance than what happened last week."

62,865 views

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Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think." "What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information."

Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think." "What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information."

1,108,184 views • 20 days ago

Axios' Mike Allen asks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if he regrets saying "I am the house now." Bessent: "No, because look, the house doesn't win every hand. The house plays percentages."

Axios' Mike Allen asks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if he regrets saying "I am the house now." Bessent: "No, because look, the house doesn't win every hand. The house plays percentages."

605,294 views • 20 days ago

Bessent on 2WAY's "The Morning Meeting" says the administration still plans to act on Fannie and Freddie in 2027–28, but his “north star” is that any deal can’t widen mortgage spreads. He said it's "unclear" whether changing the ownership structure would help homeowners. The core tradeoff in recap and release has always been getting a deal to work for shareholders, taxpayers, and borrowers.

Bessent on 2WAY's "The Morning Meeting" says the administration still plans to act on Fannie and Freddie in 2027–28, but his “north star” is that any deal can’t widen mortgage spreads. He said it's "unclear" whether changing the ownership structure would help homeowners. The core tradeoff in recap and release has always been getting a deal to work for shareholders, taxpayers, and borrowers.

47,689 views • 3 days ago

Kevin Warsh's quip definitely got a laugh from the audience in Bangkok. "Kristalina, you pronounce it A.I. In the U.S. we now pronounce it S.I., just so you know."😆

Kevin Warsh's quip definitely got a laugh from the audience in Bangkok. "Kristalina, you pronounce it A.I. In the U.S. we now pronounce it S.I., just so you know."😆

90,093 views • 7 days ago

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh says AI is going to "fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy" by improving forecasts. "We torture data with old-fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying inflation trends. Not so long from now, it won't be torture."

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh says AI is going to "fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy" by improving forecasts. "We torture data with old-fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying inflation trends. Not so long from now, it won't be torture."

74,111 views • 7 days ago

After two weeks in which no fewer than five Fed officials hit some variant of the "no urgency" theme in their public comments (including as recently as Wednesday before and after CPI) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said of providing market-guiding hints, "We're not in that business anymore."

After two weeks in which no fewer than five Fed officials hit some variant of the "no urgency" theme in their public comments (including as recently as Wednesday before and after CPI) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said of providing market-guiding hints, "We're not in that business anymore."

62,271 views • 7 days ago

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox's Laura Ingraham that he hopes the Fed will keep an "open mind" on rate hikes and consider the example of the 1990s and Greenspan. What's interesting about this oft-cited analogy is that there's the 1996-97 Greenspan who resisted hiking when some of his colleagues wanted it. But there's also the 1999-2000 Greenspan Fed that raised rates by 175 bps in 12 months (including a 50-bps hike in May 2000), which more than reversed the 75 bps in cuts that followed the LTCM meltdown in 1998. Ingraham nods to this history: "We did have the internet boom in 2000 and bust as well, didn't we?"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox's Laura Ingraham that he hopes the Fed will keep an "open mind" on rate hikes and consider the example of the 1990s and Greenspan. What's interesting about this oft-cited analogy is that there's the 1996-97 Greenspan who resisted hiking when some of his colleagues wanted it. But there's also the 1999-2000 Greenspan Fed that raised rates by 175 bps in 12 months (including a 50-bps hike in May 2000), which more than reversed the 75 bps in cuts that followed the LTCM meltdown in 1998. Ingraham nods to this history: "We did have the internet boom in 2000 and bust as well, didn't we?"

82,329 views • 15 days ago

Fed governor Chris Waller addresses the White House's challenges to Fed independence during an interview with Bloomberg's Saleha Mohsin: "There is a threat to Fed independence by the administration. So far, it hasn't really succeeded.... I'm hoping that that continues."

Fed governor Chris Waller addresses the White House's challenges to Fed independence during an interview with Bloomberg's Saleha Mohsin: "There is a threat to Fed independence by the administration. So far, it hasn't really succeeded.... I'm hoping that that continues."

52,188 views • 10 days ago

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Axios's Mike Allen he thinks Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is "doing well." "If I look at my call sheet every day, I probably have a hundred calls to make. I think if you're Fed chair, you probably have three. So part of my job is to make sure that he can hear what's going on in the wider world."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Axios's Mike Allen he thinks Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is "doing well." "If I look at my call sheet every day, I probably have a hundred calls to make. I think if you're Fed chair, you probably have three. So part of my job is to make sure that he can hear what's going on in the wider world."

86,002 views • 19 days ago

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do than on what it should do, a view that sits uneasily with Kevin Warsh's push to say less about the outlook in pursuit of a purer market signal. "Having been on the market side of things for three decades, I think that what markets are looking for is they're looking for any guidance as to where the Fed is going to go. I know that bankers, investment professionals, their number one goal is to produce returns for themselves and their clients. That's their goal, that's the job. And to do that, they both want to look at what the fundamentals of the economy are doing and what they're saying, but I think they respond more based on what they think the Fed will do rather than what they think we should do. And so I think that it's important to take signal back from the markets about how the economy is progressing, but I take more signal about how the economy is progressing from the data, from the stories I hear in the district."

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said investors trade more on what they think the Fed will do than on what it should do, a view that sits uneasily with Kevin Warsh's push to say less about the outlook in pursuit of a purer market signal. "Having been on the market side of things for three decades, I think that what markets are looking for is they're looking for any guidance as to where the Fed is going to go. I know that bankers, investment professionals, their number one goal is to produce returns for themselves and their clients. That's their goal, that's the job. And to do that, they both want to look at what the fundamentals of the economy are doing and what they're saying, but I think they respond more based on what they think the Fed will do rather than what they think we should do. And so I think that it's important to take signal back from the markets about how the economy is progressing, but I take more signal about how the economy is progressing from the data, from the stories I hear in the district."

43,461 views • 10 days ago

Bessent tells Kudlow he hopes the Fed will "keep an open mind" and that Warsh be more like the mid-1990s under Greenspan than the ECB that hiked into the oil shock of 2008. "We have a private sector demand shock that is being met with more supply because we deregulated."

Bessent tells Kudlow he hopes the Fed will "keep an open mind" and that Warsh be more like the mid-1990s under Greenspan than the ECB that hiked into the oil shock of 2008. "We have a private sector demand shock that is being met with more supply because we deregulated."

107,218 views • 25 days ago

What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account)

What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account)

477,352 views • 5 months ago

"Let's be a little careful." At the end of this Hoover Institution podcast, Austan Goolsbee says monetarism is having a bit of a resurgence that he doesn't think is earned by its record.

"Let's be a little careful." At the end of this Hoover Institution podcast, Austan Goolsbee says monetarism is having a bit of a resurgence that he doesn't think is earned by its record.

49,507 views • 25 days ago

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