Patrick OShaughnessy
@patrick_oshag • 364,080 subscribers
building @psumvc @colossusmag hosting @investlikebest
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My conversation with Noah Shinn (Noah Shinn), founder of Instinct. Noah is building a personal AI assistant. It's still invite only, has spent nothing on marketing, and is growing roughly 10% A DAY. This is his first long conversation about the company. We discuss: - Why Instinct doesn't have an app - Buying compute months ahead of exponential demand - How users learn to trust it with a credit card - Safety and security - Agents coordinating with other people's agents - Instinct's business model - Apps built on consumer inertia - and more Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 4:11 What people are using AI agents for 15:07 Rethinking travel, reservations, and the internet 22:43 Trust, privacy, and personal data 27:50 The business model behind Instinct 38:04 How existing businesses will adapt 47:55 Designing a personal assistant people love 53:15 Growth, compute, and competing with Big Tech 1:11:44 What’s next for Instinct and personal AI
Patrick OShaughnessy1,821,676 次观看 • 26 天前
Neil Movva (Neil Movva) started his career at Nvidia, working on GPUs and kernels, and has an unusually deep understanding of inference, from software to chips to power. We spend a lot of time on each of those layers, how they connect, and where the important tradeoffs are. What makes this conversation special is how detailed it is (like a 401-level class), yet Neil makes it remarkably clear and easy to follow. Today he runs Sail Research, a company building infrastructure for agents to make tokens as cheap as possible. We discuss: - Latency versus throughput - Why there are no bad chips, only bad pricing - The end of kernel engineering - Buying chips and power no one else wants - New chip architectures - Nvidia lore + his contrarian view of the company - Open source and the frontier labs I learned a ton. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:38 Building a “Token Factory” 4:21 The Future of Background Agents 13:09 Nvidia and the GPU Stack 23:27 Chips, Memory, and Transformers 36:14 The Future of AI Training Data 44:32 Chip Scarcity and Compute Arbitrage 52:44 Reinventing the AI Data Center 59:01 Power and the “Scavenger Strategy” 1:10:10 Open vs. Closed AI
Patrick OShaughnessy4,660,440 次观看 • 2 个月前
My second conversation with Christina Cacioppo (Christina Cacioppo), Vanta's cofounder and CEO. Charlie Songhurst says the best returns come from companies that are highly boring and highly complex, because fewer founders want to build them. Vanta is one of those companies. When we first talked five years ago, Christina told me about building the first version of Vanta in Excel. Since then she has turned it into the category leader in security compliance. Now she is rebuilding it around AI. We discuss: - Why great software businesses got cheap - Why Vanta eats the cost of AI instead of marking it up - Why comp for top people is up 10X in five years - What is over/under hyped in AI - How AI attackers are changing security - Vanta marketing + billboards - Building trust in an era of low trust Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:17 Surviving the SaaSpocalypse 9:40 The AI Pricing Trap 16:17 Rebuilding Software for AI 22:43 Silicon Valley's Talent Wars 31:57 What's Overhyped in AI 38:39 Security at Machine Speed 47:16 Reinventing Software 55:37 The Billboard War 60:38 Rebuilding Trust in Technology
Patrick OShaughnessy219,224 次观看 • 4 天前
My conversation with Michael Moritz, one of the great venture investors of the last 40 years. Michael joined Sequoia in 1986 and co-led the firm with Doug Leone (doug leone) from 1995 to 2012. His investments include Google, Yahoo, PayPal, and Stripe. His new book, Ausländer, traces his parents' escape from Nazi Germany and helps explain his lifelong interest in what shapes exceptional people. We discuss: - The infamous Steve Jobs profile - Why Don Valentine hired him - The question he finds most revealing when interviewing people - Monomania and the cost of greatness - Why he has never felt good at anything - Writing, journalism and AI - What he learned about himself writing Ausländer I'd recommend watching this one if you can. Michael was incredibly thoughtful and reflective throughout, particularly when talking about his parents, childhood, and the more difficult parts of his personal story. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:53 Family History & Identity 7:03 Survival & Outsider Instinct 18:53 Studying Exceptional People 33:50 Self-Doubt & Success 41:17 Steve Jobs & Obsession 52:50 Joining Sequoia 1:03:22 Leadership & Alex Ferguson 1:08:25 Elon Musk & AI 1:17:12 Becoming Who You Are
Patrick OShaughnessy2,296,263 次观看 • 1 个月前
Christina Cacioppo on why Vanta is eating its token costs: "If you try to charge people based on tokens, they are very quick to say, 'Oh, you've just marked up a Claude token 4X. Are you 4X as good as Claude?' You actually put yourselves in a competitive position against the models that probably no application really wants to do. We're eating the token cost right now. We're taking lower margin. This is a usage phase and a deployment phase of this technology, and just go nail that, and you can figure out commercialization after."
Patrick OShaughnessy182,712 次观看 • 4 天前
My conversation with Gabe Stengel (Gabriel Stengel), founder and CEO of Rogo. For years, Gabe and I have talked about how much of an investor's job AI will eventually do and how he is building Rogo toward that future. Today, Rogo helps some of the world's largest financial institutions research companies, run diligence and execute M&A. But Gabe's ambition is much bigger. He is building toward investing superintelligence, where Rogo does much of the work inside investment banks and firms and becomes the venue where they do their deals. It's a fascinating business and has been so fun watching Gabe build it. We discuss: - 10,000 agents searching for one great investment idea - Which investing skills will still matter - Why Anthropic/OpenAI won't win finance - "Chewing glass" - Why the harness around the models matters so much - Getting rejected by 40+ investors - Building an AI native Bloomberg - Becoming a black hole for talent Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 2:38 Building Rogo 6:12 10,000 AI Agents 12:02 Skills That Still Matter 17:31 Beating OpenAI and Anthropic 28:35 Bloomberg of the AI Era 37:37 Rogo’s Company Brain 44:19 Chewing Glass 53:34 AI-Native Finance 59:21 What Humans Still Do Better
Patrick OShaughnessy1,007,371 次观看 • 1 个月前
Christina Cacioppo on why French software companies have stopped building on American models: "I was very surprised to learn a lot of the French software companies are using Chinese models predominantly. I was with our customers in France...and someone said, 'We all switched to Chinese models when Trump closed Fable off to non-Americans. We just realized there's a huge business continuity risk. We can't trust that if we build a business on one of these American models, it'll always be available, so we stopped doing that.'"
Patrick OShaughnessy111,016 次观看 • 4 天前
Andrew Huberman on why Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all going to become biotech companies. "Dario came up through neuroscience. Sam, I've spoken to, is extremely smart about the neuroscience, as is Zuck. The technologists who used to just engineer stuff, they're becoming neuroscientists...and I think most people don't realize that. They will all tell you, 'Okay, here's the goal. The goal is to be able to read and write from your brain non-invasively.' Even just for things like drive and motivation, a non-invasive device where you could literally crank up your level of motivation by stimulating the nucleus accumbens and related pathways while engaging in a particular learning task or in hard work, and then turning it off so that you can capture more energy. That's coming, and those companies are all about that. That's what the real arms race of AI is about."
Patrick OShaughnessy422,870 次观看 • 18 天前
My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (Paul Tudor Jones), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
Patrick OShaughnessy5,638,431 次观看 • 5 个月前
My conversation with Andrew Huberman (Andrew D. Huberman, Ph.D.). I didn't expect us to spend so much time on the frontier of neurotechnology, and how we'll soon be able to precisely measure and change our brain states, both awake and asleep. It was fascinating. Also discuss: - Building and keeping energy - How to downshift and fall asleep quickly - Neuralink and BCI - The state of health media - Following your curiosity This was a fun one. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 Building Energy for High Performance 7:00 How to Fall Asleep 18:10 What’s Gone Wrong With Health Optimization 24:10 AI Companies Could Become Biotech Companies 30:45 Implantable Devices 33:45 Memory 42:50 Controlling Your Brain 59:00 Genetic Engineering 1:11:05 The Key to Meaningful Success
Patrick OShaughnessy393,877 次观看 • 18 天前
My conversation with Ben Thompson. Ben has been writing Stratechery for over a decade and remains one of my favorite business thinkers. We covered a lot. Every important company in the industry and the forces acting on all of them. - Why he thinks it would be problematic for the US to win the AI race - Will we run out of money to fund AI - Google becoming Berkshire Hathaway - Why ads are amazing - TSMC, Intel, and Samsung - Nvidia's invisible price cuts + biggest competitors - Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta I love talking to Ben about everything happening in markets and technology. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:59 America and the AI Race 8:26 AI’s Funding Problem 15:31 AI’s Capabilities and Limits 20:30 Aggregation Theory, AI, and Ads 31:10 Compute, TSMC, and Intel 47:31 Amazon and Apple’s AI Moats 54:43 The Frontier AI Players 74:07 Nvidia and Commoditized Intelligence 82:52 What Survives an AI Bubble?
Patrick OShaughnessy1,603,535 次观看 • 2 个月前
My conversation with Sam Altman (Sam Altman), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons
Patrick OShaughnessy2,013,926 次观看 • 2 个月前
My seventh conversation with Gavin Baker. It's about the gap between what the market is doing and what companies are seeing. It's been a tough month or so for public AI names, but there's no sign of a slowdown on the ground in Silicon Valley. We discuss: - Why old GPUs are getting more expensive - Open source vs the frontier - Claude as Wall Street's Walter Cronkite - Whether the buildout gets funded out of cash flow or debt - SpaceX as a data center company - And more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:17 AI Selloff vs. Fundamentals 10:20 Financing the AI Buildout 18:18 GPU Prices Keep Rising 24:23 Claude Moves Markets 29:01 What Could Break the Thesis 36:59 The Memory Supply War 42:08 Nvidia’s New Playbook 50:14 China and Open Source 61:51 Data Centers and Regulation 71:11 SpaceX and Orbital Compute
Patrick OShaughnessy1,831,600 次观看 • 2 个月前
"The most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space. In every way, data centers in space, from a first principles perspective, are superior to data centers on earth. In space, you can keep a satellite in the sun 24 hours a day. The sun is 30% more intense, which results in six times more irradiance than on Earth. So you don't need a battery. The cooling in these data centers is incredibly complicated. Space cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite. The only thing faster than a laser going through a fiber optic cable is a laser going through absolute vacuum. Link satellites with lasers, and you have a faster and more coherent network than any data center on Earth."
Patrick OShaughnessy8,217,357 次观看 • 10 个月前
Krishna Rao is the CFO of Anthropic, and this is his first podcast appearance. He joined the company two years ago when run-rate revenue was about $250M. Today it is $30B. He has helped raise ~$75B and is responsible for the procurement and allocation of compute. I feel lucky we get to hear what it is like to sit inside a company this consequential at a moment this pivotal. We discuss: - The cone of uncertainty - How he allocates compute across Trainium, TPUs, and GPUs - What investors misunderstand about model companies - Why the returns to frontier intelligence keep rising - Platform vs application and where Anthropic builds its own products - How Anthropic uses Claude internally I have asked my closing question about the kindest thing more than 500 times. Krishna's answer is one I have never heard before. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:38 The Compute Canvas 6:51 The "Cone of Uncertainty" 11:58 Why the Returns to Frontier Intelligence Are So High 16:45 Recursive Self-Improvement 20:20 Scaling Laws 23:30 Sourcing $100 Billion in Compute 28:05 Platform vs. Application Strategy 32:52 Pricing Dynamics 38:48 How Anthropic’s Finance Team Uses Claude 43:24 Raising Capital & Overcoming Investor Skepticism 52:32 Public Perception, Risks, and Government Regulation 57:25 Mythos Release 1:12:33 What Could Derail the AI Revolution? 1:13:47 Biotech and Healthcare 1:15:31 The Kindest Thing
Patrick OShaughnessy3,309,846 次观看 • 5 个月前
My conversation with David Vélez (David Velez), founder and CEO of Nubank. The last time we did this was five years ago, and Nubank had 35 million customers. Today it has over 140 million, and it has just announced it's coming to the US. David now talks about expanding to 100 countries and reaching a billion customers. We discuss: - State and future of global banking - Agents as a customer segment - Going from one direct report to 20 - How he's rebuilding the company with AI - Where fintech opportunities remain - The end of cash - Founder v CEO, great leadership, and finding the right mission Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:25 Banking's $10 Trillion Disruption 5:54 AI's Impact on Banking 14:40 Building Moats in the AI Era 23:29 The Future of Money 36:01 Nubank's Global Expansion 48:24 Reinventing Nubank with AI 59:47 Founder Mindset and Leadership 1:13:18 Nubank's Future and Entrepreneurship
Patrick OShaughnessy167,684 次观看 • 11 天前
Matthew Smith has spent the last 18 months modeling every well, pipeline, storage facility, and power plant in the American natural gas system. His conclusion is that the US is heading toward a natural gas shortage with no precedent, beginning in 2028. By 2030, he believes we could exhaust our working natural gas storage entirely. The fuel everyone in AI is counting on, and that everyone assumes is abundant, is not there. And because gas sets the price of electricity in most of the country, he argues Americans will pay for the shortage in their power bills. Matthew has worked in energy markets for over 20 years and is the CIO of Chronometer Partners. This is his second time on the show, and he's one of my favorite people to talk to about energy. We discuss: - Why the bottleneck is moving from power to fuel - Why we can't just shut off exports - 2028 as the inflection point - Large-scale nuclear v. SMRs - Who wins, who loses, and what can still be done Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:30 What Drives the Deficit 11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up 20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis 25:05 Winners and Losers 29:00 Nuclear and Solar 33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill 37:20 AI’s Next Shortage 45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes 51:15 The Coming Gas Knife Fight
Patrick OShaughnessy1,644,863 次观看 • 3 个月前
My conversation with Walter Russell Mead (Walter Russell Mead). Walter has spent decades studying how America came to dominate the world and whether it can keep doing it in an era of AI, robotics and what he calls personal politics. He's a columnist at the Wall Street Journal and the author of Special Providence and God and Gold, two of the best books on American power. We discuss: - The five point plan for global dominance - How Trump turned fame into power - The four schools of American foreign policy - What worries Xi/China - Ukraine, Iran, and the erosion of deterrence Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:01 America, Trump and World Order 9:23 Why America Keeps Winning 20:40 China’s Structural Weakness 26:39 Technology and American Power 36:51 Four Foreign Policy Traditions 53:59 The Future of Warfare 1:00:52 Taiwan and Asian Power 1:08:39 Middle East and Deterrence 1:15:04 America’s Next 20 Years
Patrick OShaughnessy703,721 次观看 • 1 个月前
My second conversation with Jeremy Giffon. His first episode became one of the most popular we've ever done. Since then he's become a friend I talk to every day, so this is a taste of one of those conversations. We discuss: - The billion dollar PDF - Why billionaires have become subservient to the "poaster" class - The philosophers who secretly shaped Silicon Valley - Lessons from the last 18 months in private markets - East v. West coast finance - Buffett + beating the market - and much more Enjoy! 0:00 Intro 5:50 The Billion Dollar PDF 11:31 Algorithms and Power Laws 20:28 Peak Guy 31:19 Opting Out of the Timeline 36:14 AI and White-Collar Jobs 43:31 The Next Era of Finance 53:56 The New Economics of Software 1:03:22 Underwriting Emerging Managers 1:18:17 Silicon Valley’s Hidden Philosophy
Patrick OShaughnessy1,671,252 次观看 • 3 个月前
My guest today is Brian Chesky (Brian Chesky), founder and CEO of Airbnb and one of the great consumer founders of the last 20 years. Paul Graham coined "founder mode" based on Brian's experience running Airbnb. This conversation is about what comes after it, what he calls AI founder mode, and how it will force founders to focus even more on the details. We talk about his eleven-star exercise for finding product market fit, why your first hire should be a recruiter, and why Airbnb's $100B IPO became one of the saddest days of his life. Brian still comes across like the 17 year-old at the Rhode Island School of Design (RISD) who picked to study industrial design. His heroes are all artists. Da Vinci, Van Gogh, Walt Disney, and Steve Jobs, all of whom were working the week they died because they loved what they did. Rick Rubin taught him that an artist is only an artist when they make things for themselves. Now Brian believes AI is the opportunity for all of us to do the same. Enjoy! Timestamps: 1:00 Studying Industrial Design 11:33 AI Founder Mode 17:02 Lack of Consumer AI Companies 22:10 Small Teams and Focused Problems 30:52 The Evolution from Founder to CEO 38:13 The 11-Star Experience 41:07 AI as a Canvas for Creativity 48:17 Detaching from Success 53:12 Founder-Led Moats 58:34 The Next Chapter of Airbnb 1:03:08 What Endures in the Age of AI 1:06:43 Lessons from Bodybuilding 1:10:20 The CEO's No. 1 Job 1:17:01 Activating Talent 1:20:39 The Kindest Thing
Patrick OShaughnessy2,680,387 次观看 • 5 个月前