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Polykinder

@polykinder • 2,233 subscribers

Tracking sharp money on Polymarket, perps & on-chain. Wallets, odds, probability - over news hype. Real edges, not punditry.

Shorts

A whale down $1.8M this month just dropped $2.6M on France NOT winning tonight. Meet DEEDDIT. 17 career bets, a $3.8M biggest win, and a brutal month - off nearly two million dollars. So what does he do? He doubles down. His entire book is now stacked against France: ⚽ France to win - No, $1.44M 🇪🇸 Spain to advance - $1.16M The market has France at 62%. This guy just bet $2.6M they're wrong. Even Yamal's already trolling France, posted an old Spain win on his story 2h ago. The kid's not nervous. Down big, swinging bigger. And funny enough - that's the exact side I'm on. Spain tonight. 🇪🇸

A whale down $1.8M this month just dropped $2.6M on France NOT winning tonight. Meet DEEDDIT. 17 career bets, a $3.8M biggest win, and a brutal month - off nearly two million dollars. So what does he do? He doubles down. His entire book is now stacked against France: ⚽ France to win - No, $1.44M 🇪🇸 Spain to advance - $1.16M The market has France at 62%. This guy just bet $2.6M they're wrong. Even Yamal's already trolling France, posted an old Spain win on his story 2h ago. The kid's not nervous. Down big, swinging bigger. And funny enough - that's the exact side I'm on. Spain tonight. 🇪🇸

1,030,978 görüntüleme

A wallet called yamal19 - created TODAY - just dropped $1.6M on Spain to win the World Cup. one bet. no hedge. 🇪🇸 Spain to win it all - $1.6M @ 59¢ fresh account. hours old. exactly ONE prediction in its history - 2.7M shares on Spain lifting the trophy tonight. a fan? almost certainly. but you spin up a wallet the day of the final, name it yamal19, and send $1.6M on Spain with zero hedge... the timeline's going to run with that 👀 whoever's behind it isn't here to hedge. they're here to watch Spain win 🇪🇸

A wallet called yamal19 - created TODAY - just dropped $1.6M on Spain to win the World Cup. one bet. no hedge. 🇪🇸 Spain to win it all - $1.6M @ 59¢ fresh account. hours old. exactly ONE prediction in its history - 2.7M shares on Spain lifting the trophy tonight. a fan? almost certainly. but you spin up a wallet the day of the final, name it yamal19, and send $1.6M on Spain with zero hedge... the timeline's going to run with that 👀 whoever's behind it isn't here to hedge. they're here to watch Spain win 🇪🇸

650,913 görüntüleme

$9.79M profit in a single month. And the guy just quietly bet against France. swisstony is a Polymarket legend - 140K predictions, $1.2M biggest win, one of the sharpest bots on the platform. When he moves size, I pay attention. Today he's loaded $1.35M across 3 positions on the semifinal - every single one fading France: 🇫🇷 France to win - No 58.8¢, $671K 🇪🇸 Exact score 2-1 France - No 90¢, $392K ⚽ Exact score 3-3 - No 98.6¢, $288K The whole market has France as the machine of this tournament. The legend is quietly betting the other way. Funny thing - that's exactly the side I'm on. Spain to walk off that pitch with the win. Let's see who's right. 🇪🇸

$9.79M profit in a single month. And the guy just quietly bet against France. swisstony is a Polymarket legend - 140K predictions, $1.2M biggest win, one of the sharpest bots on the platform. When he moves size, I pay attention. Today he's loaded $1.35M across 3 positions on the semifinal - every single one fading France: 🇫🇷 France to win - No 58.8¢, $671K 🇪🇸 Exact score 2-1 France - No 90¢, $392K ⚽ Exact score 3-3 - No 98.6¢, $288K The whole market has France as the machine of this tournament. The legend is quietly betting the other way. Funny thing - that's exactly the side I'm on. Spain to walk off that pitch with the win. Let's see who's right. 🇪🇸

361,628 görüntüleme

This wallet has a crown, $2.4M all-time, and just made $514K in the past month alone. And it's not betting the US Open main draw - it's loading up on the QUALIFIERS nobody's watching. 49,206 predictions deep. Here's where the $105K is parked right now - all US Open qualifying: [+] Linda Fruhvirtova at 34¢ → $3,816 (+16%) [+] Fiona Ferro at 60¢ → $4,102 [+] Daniel Rincon at 17¢ → $3,738 (21,359 shares) [+] Federico Gomez at 46¢ → $2,013 Biggest single win to date: $417K. The tell: nobody prices qualifying rounds carefully. The crowd is glued to the main draw. So a whale who does the homework on unseeded players finds soft lines here - Rincon at 17¢ is a lottery ticket he's holding 21K of. Would you bet a US Open qualifier you've never heard of?

This wallet has a crown, $2.4M all-time, and just made $514K in the past month alone. And it's not betting the US Open main draw - it's loading up on the QUALIFIERS nobody's watching. 49,206 predictions deep. Here's where the $105K is parked right now - all US Open qualifying: [+] Linda Fruhvirtova at 34¢ → $3,816 (+16%) [+] Fiona Ferro at 60¢ → $4,102 [+] Daniel Rincon at 17¢ → $3,738 (21,359 shares) [+] Federico Gomez at 46¢ → $2,013 Biggest single win to date: $417K. The tell: nobody prices qualifying rounds carefully. The crowd is glued to the main draw. So a whale who does the homework on unseeded players finds soft lines here - Rincon at 17¢ is a lottery ticket he's holding 21K of. Would you bet a US Open qualifier you've never heard of?

76,590 görüntüleme

A wallet up $5.3 million just parked $489,000 on a tennis match that got stopped by rain. beachboy4 barely trades. 195 bets in his entire history. But when he moves, he moves huge - his biggest single win is $3.5M. Right now he's holding: → 607,888 shares on Jessica Pegula to win the DC Open final → Entry: 62¢ · Now: 80¢ → Already up $111,000 (+29%) Then the sky opened. The final got suspended mid-second-set. It resumes today at noon. So half a million dollars is sitting frozen on a rain delay - waiting for Pegula to close it out against Alexandra Eala, the 21-year-old who's been the story of the whole tournament. A sniper with a 195-bet record almost never loads up on a single match like this. When he does, I stop scrolling. Pegula or Eala - who takes it?

A wallet up $5.3 million just parked $489,000 on a tennis match that got stopped by rain. beachboy4 barely trades. 195 bets in his entire history. But when he moves, he moves huge - his biggest single win is $3.5M. Right now he's holding: → 607,888 shares on Jessica Pegula to win the DC Open final → Entry: 62¢ · Now: 80¢ → Already up $111,000 (+29%) Then the sky opened. The final got suspended mid-second-set. It resumes today at noon. So half a million dollars is sitting frozen on a rain delay - waiting for Pegula to close it out against Alexandra Eala, the 21-year-old who's been the story of the whole tournament. A sniper with a 195-bet record almost never loads up on a single match like this. When he does, I stop scrolling. Pegula or Eala - who takes it?

162,065 görüntüleme

An account with a perfect record just put $79k on one man at the Cincinnati Open. TennisLove is 6-for-6. +$237k all-time, a $112.7k biggest win, and a bio that literally reads "Accuracy 100%. Only safe predictions." Now the whole clean sheet rides on Daniil Medvedev at 56¢ vs Brandon Nakashima - 139,855 shares, $79k on the line. The tell: for a wallet that calls itself "only safe predictions," 56¢ is barely a favorite. This is a near coinflip, and he's staking a spotless record on it. Win and it's 7-for-7. Lose and the "100% accuracy" bio dies live. Track record: $112.7k biggest win, 6 predictions, +$237k all-time. Does the perfect record survive Medvedev?

An account with a perfect record just put $79k on one man at the Cincinnati Open. TennisLove is 6-for-6. +$237k all-time, a $112.7k biggest win, and a bio that literally reads "Accuracy 100%. Only safe predictions." Now the whole clean sheet rides on Daniil Medvedev at 56¢ vs Brandon Nakashima - 139,855 shares, $79k on the line. The tell: for a wallet that calls itself "only safe predictions," 56¢ is barely a favorite. This is a near coinflip, and he's staking a spotless record on it. Win and it's 7-for-7. Lose and the "100% accuracy" bio dies live. Track record: $112.7k biggest win, 6 predictions, +$237k all-time. Does the perfect record survive Medvedev?

68,230 görüntüleme

$3.2M profit this month. And this whale is betting England DON'T win tonight - but DO win the entire World Cup. Meet Allezpapa. 153 bets, a $743K biggest win, and one of the sharpest reads on the board right now. Sounds like a contradiction. It isn't. Look closer: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England to win the semifinal tonight - No, $155K 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs Argentina to end in a draw - Yes 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England to win the whole thing - Yes, and it's already up +103% The way I read it: he's betting on a grinding stalemate in 90 minutes, England surviving the shootout, then lifting the trophy. He's not fading England. He's fading the easy win. Smart money doesn't bet teams. It bets scenarios.

$3.2M profit this month. And this whale is betting England DON'T win tonight - but DO win the entire World Cup. Meet Allezpapa. 153 bets, a $743K biggest win, and one of the sharpest reads on the board right now. Sounds like a contradiction. It isn't. Look closer: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England to win the semifinal tonight - No, $155K 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England vs Argentina to end in a draw - Yes 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England to win the whole thing - Yes, and it's already up +103% The way I read it: he's betting on a grinding stalemate in 90 minutes, England surviving the shootout, then lifting the trophy. He's not fading England. He's fading the easy win. Smart money doesn't bet teams. It bets scenarios.

115,818 görüntüleme

The wallet called yamal19 I posted about yesterday? it just made $1.3M in 120 minutes. created the account yesterday. one bet. Spain to win the World Cup at 59¢. 90 minutes of football + extra time = +$1,347,506. a fan? almost certainly. but that's the most disciplined single bet I've seen all tournament - full conviction, one market, in and out before the trophy was lifted. no diversification. no hedging. just called it and got paid.

The wallet called yamal19 I posted about yesterday? it just made $1.3M in 120 minutes. created the account yesterday. one bet. Spain to win the World Cup at 59¢. 90 minutes of football + extra time = +$1,347,506. a fan? almost certainly. but that's the most disciplined single bet I've seen all tournament - full conviction, one market, in and out before the trophy was lifted. no diversification. no hedging. just called it and got paid.

78,047 görüntüleme

A wallet up $1,034,819 in the last 30 days just loaded $12,000 on one tennis match tonight. ferrariChampions2026 isn't a sniper. It's the opposite - 39,440 bets and counting. A machine that never stops firing. Biggest single win: $417,000. Right now it's holding: → 16,106 shares on Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova → Entry: 74¢ → Position live, match hasn't started When a wallet that banked over a million dollars in a single month picks a side before the first serve, I don't scroll past it. Samsonova's dangerous on a fast court. But this thing has been right all month. Rybakina or the upset - who takes it?

A wallet up $1,034,819 in the last 30 days just loaded $12,000 on one tennis match tonight. ferrariChampions2026 isn't a sniper. It's the opposite - 39,440 bets and counting. A machine that never stops firing. Biggest single win: $417,000. Right now it's holding: → 16,106 shares on Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova → Entry: 74¢ → Position live, match hasn't started When a wallet that banked over a million dollars in a single month picks a side before the first serve, I don't scroll past it. Samsonova's dangerous on a fast court. But this thing has been right all month. Rybakina or the upset - who takes it?

34,948 görüntüleme

The #1 trader on Polymarket isn't even human - it's a bot sitting on $23.6M. And a real person just declared war on it. swisstony built that $23.6M all-time off 203,391 predictions. No human clicks that many bets. It's a machine, running around the clock, parked at the top of the leaderboard. Now a real guy is coming for the crown. Djdjdjekekek - joined in June, already $5.9M, from zero to that in 8 weeks - fired a public shot: "Swisstony been camping top-1 for a lil too long. Keep an eye on my next bet, lil bro." Man vs machine, live on the leaderboard. The bot never sleeps and never tilts. The human has to actually read the board and size up with nerve. The throne's been quiet for a while. For the first time, it actually looks contested.

The #1 trader on Polymarket isn't even human - it's a bot sitting on $23.6M. And a real person just declared war on it. swisstony built that $23.6M all-time off 203,391 predictions. No human clicks that many bets. It's a machine, running around the clock, parked at the top of the leaderboard. Now a real guy is coming for the crown. Djdjdjekekek - joined in June, already $5.9M, from zero to that in 8 weeks - fired a public shot: "Swisstony been camping top-1 for a lil too long. Keep an eye on my next bet, lil bro." Man vs machine, live on the leaderboard. The bot never sleeps and never tilts. The human has to actually read the board and size up with nerve. The throne's been quiet for a while. For the first time, it actually looks contested.

12,193 görüntüleme

This wallet already locked a win on the World Cup final - worth up to $2.68M - and the game hasn't even kicked off. Allezpapa didn't pick a side. He bought BOTH finalists when nobody was watching: Spain at 15.6¢ → now $1.57M (+273%) Argentina at 8.6¢ → now $322K (+377%) Whoever lifts the trophy, he cashes. Spain win = $2.68M. Argentina win = $784K. Against ~$486K in. He cannot lose this final. That's not gambling. That's a guy who treated a World Cup final like a trading desk - and booked profit before anyone touched the ball.

This wallet already locked a win on the World Cup final - worth up to $2.68M - and the game hasn't even kicked off. Allezpapa didn't pick a side. He bought BOTH finalists when nobody was watching: Spain at 15.6¢ → now $1.57M (+273%) Argentina at 8.6¢ → now $322K (+377%) Whoever lifts the trophy, he cashes. Spain win = $2.68M. Argentina win = $784K. Against ~$486K in. He cannot lose this final. That's not gambling. That's a guy who treated a World Cup final like a trading desk - and booked profit before anyone touched the ball.

30,961 görüntüleme