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Prediction Market Trader | $500k+ Profit | Kalshi Partner | Ref Link → https://t.co/hquBkUuDA0

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Today's White House Press Briefing had a 98% chance of running over 65 minutes - until Karoline Leavitt abruptly ended it with seconds to spare. Traders on the NO side made 50x in seconds.

Today's White House Press Briefing had a 98% chance of running over 65 minutes - until Karoline Leavitt abruptly ended it with seconds to spare. Traders on the NO side made 50x in seconds.

22,489,834 Aufrufe

INSANE Kalshi Mention Market Edge Before Trump’s Rose Garden speech, the WH stream caught him flipping his transcript - revealing the words “Chuck Schumer.” "Chuck Schumer" was trading around 60% odds to be mentioned. The first traders who noticed made thousands within minutes.

INSANE Kalshi Mention Market Edge Before Trump’s Rose Garden speech, the WH stream caught him flipping his transcript - revealing the words “Chuck Schumer.” "Chuck Schumer" was trading around 60% odds to be mentioned. The first traders who noticed made thousands within minutes.

250,878 Aufrufe

NEW WORLD RECORD TIME ACHIEVED Making $100 on Kalshi in 6.3 seconds

NEW WORLD RECORD TIME ACHIEVED Making $100 on Kalshi in 6.3 seconds

185,581 Aufrufe

During Trump’s speech today, “Affordable” ripped to 99% after he said “Unaffordable” three times. But “Unaffordable” ≠ “Affordable.” Azuul quickly bought thousands of NO shares at 1¢ and walked away with $6,000 (73x)

During Trump’s speech today, “Affordable” ripped to 99% after he said “Unaffordable” three times. But “Unaffordable” ≠ “Affordable.” Azuul quickly bought thousands of NO shares at 1¢ and walked away with $6,000 (73x)

127,570 Aufrufe

On Powell’s final question, he mispronounced “revolution” as “renovation.” “Renovation” was trading at just 1%. BipBop sniped 31,062 shares at 1.3¢ and made ~$30K

On Powell’s final question, he mispronounced “revolution” as “renovation.” “Renovation” was trading at just 1%. BipBop sniped 31,062 shares at 1.3¢ and made ~$30K

50,790 Aufrufe

We’ve officially crossed $50,000 total profit on Kalshi! 🥂 Halfway to the $100K goal Here is a long post on what I've learned to succeed on Prediction Markets 1. Find a niche category of markets to focus in If you truly want to have an edge, you need to be an expert in your category. Don’t spread yourself too thin by trying to stay on top of too many markets. 2. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is When you find a market that you think is wildly mispriced after just reading the title, take a pause, pull up the full market contract with resolution criteria and try to understand what you could be missing. While acting quickly can be profitable in reacting to new developments, it can also lead to some big losses if you’re not careful to confirm you fully understand the contract. 3. News trading is still one of the best strategies These markets are always open and operating 24/7. If you are dialed in to new developments in your niche, you can frequently interpret how they impact certain markets and react fast enough before probabilities shift. The reverse of this is also true where sometimes people overreact to news and you can take the other side at often really good prices. 4. Start small if you are new There are a lot of intricacies to trading on prediction markets that you may not realize as a new user. It is a rite of passage that you will make plenty of mistakes so starting small while you learn the ropes is the best way to proceed. I’d even recommend starting with no cash in the beginning and just watching markets and seeing how their odds fluctuate in response to new developments. 5. If you’re size does not move the market odds, you are probably in the wrong market The higher the volume and deeper the liquidity, the more efficient a market will be since there is more incentive for larger players to price them correctly (ie. You can make more money if you’re right). There are now thousands of markets everyday on these platforms, many of which are illiquid. There is not much incentive for sharp market participants to want to focus on these illiquid markets. If you’re a new user with a small bankroll, I’d recommend scouring through illiquid markets to try to find edge. You would be shocked how many already resolvable markets you will find that will still have standing orders up (but make sure to also consider #2 above before buying). 6. Whenever possible, use limit orders instead of market orders This one’s pretty self-explanatory - With limit orders you’ll earn liquidity rewards (on eligible markets), get in at a better price, and won’t run the risk of dealing with high slippage in illiquid markets. One of the top complaints I hear from new users is not understanding why they are getting filled at a bad price and I have even heard some horror stories of new users market selling their already won positions at 1 cent because the order book was empty. If you’re new, spend some time to understand how order books work. 7. Talk to other people in the community! Kalshi has built a really great discord and there are also a ton of other great prediction market focused discords with knowledgeable traders that are open to sharing their thoughts and providing guidance. Overall, I think the prediction market community is extremely positive and welcoming to new users. Most OG prediction market traders just want to see more volume and liquidity in their markets so they will spend the time interacting and helping new users. I will shoutout Foster, Gaeten Dugas and as just some examples (there are many more!) of people I think are really great in the community and help new users understand these markets. In conclusion, there is so much more I could write about but these are just a few topics I wanted to cover. I absolutely love prediction markets and it has been the most exciting past month seeing how mainstream they are getting with volumes skyrocketing.

We’ve officially crossed $50,000 total profit on Kalshi! 🥂 Halfway to the $100K goal Here is a long post on what I've learned to succeed on Prediction Markets 1. Find a niche category of markets to focus in If you truly want to have an edge, you need to be an expert in your category. Don’t spread yourself too thin by trying to stay on top of too many markets. 2. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is When you find a market that you think is wildly mispriced after just reading the title, take a pause, pull up the full market contract with resolution criteria and try to understand what you could be missing. While acting quickly can be profitable in reacting to new developments, it can also lead to some big losses if you’re not careful to confirm you fully understand the contract. 3. News trading is still one of the best strategies These markets are always open and operating 24/7. If you are dialed in to new developments in your niche, you can frequently interpret how they impact certain markets and react fast enough before probabilities shift. The reverse of this is also true where sometimes people overreact to news and you can take the other side at often really good prices. 4. Start small if you are new There are a lot of intricacies to trading on prediction markets that you may not realize as a new user. It is a rite of passage that you will make plenty of mistakes so starting small while you learn the ropes is the best way to proceed. I’d even recommend starting with no cash in the beginning and just watching markets and seeing how their odds fluctuate in response to new developments. 5. If you’re size does not move the market odds, you are probably in the wrong market The higher the volume and deeper the liquidity, the more efficient a market will be since there is more incentive for larger players to price them correctly (ie. You can make more money if you’re right). There are now thousands of markets everyday on these platforms, many of which are illiquid. There is not much incentive for sharp market participants to want to focus on these illiquid markets. If you’re a new user with a small bankroll, I’d recommend scouring through illiquid markets to try to find edge. You would be shocked how many already resolvable markets you will find that will still have standing orders up (but make sure to also consider #2 above before buying). 6. Whenever possible, use limit orders instead of market orders This one’s pretty self-explanatory - With limit orders you’ll earn liquidity rewards (on eligible markets), get in at a better price, and won’t run the risk of dealing with high slippage in illiquid markets. One of the top complaints I hear from new users is not understanding why they are getting filled at a bad price and I have even heard some horror stories of new users market selling their already won positions at 1 cent because the order book was empty. If you’re new, spend some time to understand how order books work. 7. Talk to other people in the community! Kalshi has built a really great discord and there are also a ton of other great prediction market focused discords with knowledgeable traders that are open to sharing their thoughts and providing guidance. Overall, I think the prediction market community is extremely positive and welcoming to new users. Most OG prediction market traders just want to see more volume and liquidity in their markets so they will spend the time interacting and helping new users. I will shoutout Foster, Gaeten Dugas and as just some examples (there are many more!) of people I think are really great in the community and help new users understand these markets. In conclusion, there is so much more I could write about but these are just a few topics I wanted to cover. I absolutely love prediction markets and it has been the most exciting past month seeing how mainstream they are getting with volumes skyrocketing.

54,178 Aufrufe

Be careful bonding mention markets Pete Hegseth said “Obliterate” and someone lost $25K bonding YES on “obliterated/obliteration” Doesn’t count Textbook mis-mog

Be careful bonding mention markets Pete Hegseth said “Obliterate” and someone lost $25K bonding YES on “obliterated/obliteration” Doesn’t count Textbook mis-mog

28,474 Aufrufe

Watch the Kalshi odds adjust in real time to Trump's first word at the Champion of Coal event

Watch the Kalshi odds adjust in real time to Trump's first word at the Champion of Coal event

21,025 Aufrufe

When trading mention markets, you have to understand EVERY context a word can appear in. Watch us get rinsed on "ICE/National Guard" NO when Mamdani decides to bring up ice cream

When trading mention markets, you have to understand EVERY context a word can appear in. Watch us get rinsed on "ICE/National Guard" NO when Mamdani decides to bring up ice cream

17,456 Aufrufe

There is an active debate going on over whether Trump said "Third Term" or "Third Ter" in this clip with thousands of dollars at stake Welcome to the world of mention markets

There is an active debate going on over whether Trump said "Third Term" or "Third Ter" in this clip with thousands of dollars at stake Welcome to the world of mention markets

12,152 Aufrufe

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My favorite question from today's fed meeting "The market priced in a 90% chance of a rate hike today... was this a market led rate hike?"

My favorite question from today's fed meeting "The market priced in a 90% chance of a rate hike today... was this a market led rate hike?"

PredictionMarketTrader

134,327 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

When you have $400 on Trump not saying "Bones" and they give an hour long presentation on the health benefits of milk

When you have $400 on Trump not saying "Bones" and they give an hour long presentation on the health benefits of milk

PredictionMarketTrader

502,093 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Trump announced a surprise $1,776 dividend to be paid to over 1 million active service members before Christmas. Immediately after the announcement, odds on Tariff checks distributed before EOY surged from 1% → 50% The first trader to react bought 50,000+ shares at just $0.03 Since then, odds have fallen back to ~20% as traders debate whether the checks will actually be distributed, and more importantly, whether they’ll be directly attributable to tariff revenue, as required by the market.

Trump announced a surprise $1,776 dividend to be paid to over 1 million active service members before Christmas. Immediately after the announcement, odds on Tariff checks distributed before EOY surged from 1% → 50% The first trader to react bought 50,000+ shares at just $0.03 Since then, odds have fallen back to ~20% as traders debate whether the checks will actually be distributed, and more importantly, whether they’ll be directly attributable to tariff revenue, as required by the market.

PredictionMarketTrader

437,107 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

After a mention market speech ends, the fastest traders scoop up NO shares on words that weren’t said, locking in risk-free profits. Watch us grab nearly $100 instantly on Kalshi after the White House Press Secretary speech ends.

After a mention market speech ends, the fastest traders scoop up NO shares on words that weren’t said, locking in risk-free profits. Watch us grab nearly $100 instantly on Kalshi after the White House Press Secretary speech ends.

PredictionMarketTrader

183,530 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

On Kalshi mention markets, automated trading bots instantly buy the word after it’s said. If you want to beat the bots, you have to buy based on context of where the conversation is headed. Watch us make $275 buying "Oil" YES right as Trump says "Venezuela" and "Barrels"

On Kalshi mention markets, automated trading bots instantly buy the word after it’s said. If you want to beat the bots, you have to buy based on context of where the conversation is headed. Watch us make $275 buying "Oil" YES right as Trump says "Venezuela" and "Barrels"

PredictionMarketTrader

113,592 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Road to $100K on Kalshi - Final Recap Total P/L: +$101,394 This Week (2 days): +$7,887 Week 16: +$7,368 Week 15: +$3,858 Week 14: +$2,234 Week 13: +$5,995 Week 12: +$1,452 Week 11: +$2,698 Week 10: +$2,495 Week 9: +$6,680 Week 8: +$1,591 Week 7: +$2,759 Week 6: +$2,687 Week 5: +$2,841 Week 4: +$2,235 Week 3: +$2,937 Week 2: +$250 Week 1: +$70 Starting Profit: +$45,357

Road to $100K on Kalshi - Final Recap Total P/L: +$101,394 This Week (2 days): +$7,887 Week 16: +$7,368 Week 15: +$3,858 Week 14: +$2,234 Week 13: +$5,995 Week 12: +$1,452 Week 11: +$2,698 Week 10: +$2,495 Week 9: +$6,680 Week 8: +$1,591 Week 7: +$2,759 Week 6: +$2,687 Week 5: +$2,841 Week 4: +$2,235 Week 3: +$2,937 Week 2: +$250 Week 1: +$70 Starting Profit: +$45,357

PredictionMarketTrader

95,678 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Top-Down sports CLICKERS discuss why they have never attempted to originate or provide actual value to sports markets

Top-Down sports CLICKERS discuss why they have never attempted to originate or provide actual value to sports markets

PredictionMarketTrader

23,809 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Brian Armstrong addresses the Coinbase earnings call mention market incident

Brian Armstrong addresses the Coinbase earnings call mention market incident

PredictionMarketTrader

69,032 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Trump’s Wednesday address was our biggest mention market ever - over $60K on the line It also turned into our biggest win ever Full stream highlights

Trump’s Wednesday address was our biggest mention market ever - over $60K on the line It also turned into our biggest win ever Full stream highlights

PredictionMarketTrader

45,153 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

User tooeasy27 just turned $1,200 into $72,039 on a NATO Secretary General Kalshi mention market. >Everyone thought the interview was over >NO shares were getting bonded at 99¢ >Fox News aired one final clip >“Security” was said One word. 60x.

User tooeasy27 just turned $1,200 into $72,039 on a NATO Secretary General Kalshi mention market. >Everyone thought the interview was over >NO shares were getting bonded at 99¢ >Fox News aired one final clip >“Security” was said One word. 60x.

PredictionMarketTrader

37,885 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

BREAKING: Trump mentions "Bitcoin/Crypto" at the World Economic Forum Odds got as low as 6% during the speech The NO Crypto/Bitcoin bond has officially defaulted

BREAKING: Trump mentions "Bitcoin/Crypto" at the World Economic Forum Odds got as low as 6% during the speech The NO Crypto/Bitcoin bond has officially defaulted

PredictionMarketTrader

36,855 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

🚨🚨🚨THE Esoteric Catboy INTERVIEW🚨🚨🚨 TONIGHT - 5PM ET THE MOST REQUESTED INTERVIEW OF ALL TIME THE #1 MENTION MARKET TRADER IN THE WORLD OVER $1.2M IN PROFITS POTENTIAL FACE REVEAL???

🚨🚨🚨THE Esoteric Catboy INTERVIEW🚨🚨🚨 TONIGHT - 5PM ET THE MOST REQUESTED INTERVIEW OF ALL TIME THE #1 MENTION MARKET TRADER IN THE WORLD OVER $1.2M IN PROFITS POTENTIAL FACE REVEAL???

PredictionMarketTrader

20,917 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Trump spoke for less than 3 minutes during the US-China bilateral meeting Every mention strike went NO Stream highlights

Trump spoke for less than 3 minutes during the US-China bilateral meeting Every mention strike went NO Stream highlights

PredictionMarketTrader

11,365 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

MENTION MARKETS GO MAINSTREAM

MENTION MARKETS GO MAINSTREAM

PredictionMarketTrader

18,409 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

If you are a new user getting into prediction markets, "sizing" is one of the last things you should be worried about. Instead, just start extremely small and first see if you are even able to be profitable over a couple weeks. Things like "Kelly Criterion" operate under the assumption that you can accurately give a fair value of something - which you likely can't in the beginning (and maybe never will). I still make mistakes/misclicks where I delete $1k or $2k in an instant - you will likely make even more mistakes as a new user so its much better for this to be $1 or $5. Once you have proven to yourself that you can consistently be profitable and built a small bankroll, then you can start to worry or think more strategically about sizing etc.

If you are a new user getting into prediction markets, "sizing" is one of the last things you should be worried about. Instead, just start extremely small and first see if you are even able to be profitable over a couple weeks. Things like "Kelly Criterion" operate under the assumption that you can accurately give a fair value of something - which you likely can't in the beginning (and maybe never will). I still make mistakes/misclicks where I delete $1k or $2k in an instant - you will likely make even more mistakes as a new user so its much better for this to be $1 or $5. Once you have proven to yourself that you can consistently be profitable and built a small bankroll, then you can start to worry or think more strategically about sizing etc.

PredictionMarketTrader

14,913 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Live example of a mention market edge from Palantir earnings: >‘Revenue guidance’ was priced at ~30% YES >It was a Q4 call >They haven’t said the term on any Q4 call in 5 years >Market anchored to Q1–Q3 behavior

Live example of a mention market edge from Palantir earnings: >‘Revenue guidance’ was priced at ~30% YES >It was a Q4 call >They haven’t said the term on any Q4 call in 5 years >Market anchored to Q1–Q3 behavior

PredictionMarketTrader

11,256 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

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