Professor Axolotl
@prof.axolotl • 4,500 subscribers
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Nvidia is its own best customer. That's not a joke — it's the business model Wall Street just panicked over. It's called circular financing, and here's how the loop works. Step one: Nvidia sells GPUs to a cloud company called CoreWeave. Step two: Nvidia buys an 11% ownership stake in CoreWeave. Step three: CoreWeave turns around and sells $6.3 billion of computing power back to Nvidia. Same two companies. Nvidia is the supplier, the investor, and the customer — all at once. The money goes out, buys Nvidia's own products, and comes back as revenue. Now scale that up across the entire AI industry. Nvidia announced plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI — its biggest chip customer. That deal later stalled over these exact circularity concerns, and Nvidia put in $30 billion instead as part of a $122 billion funding round. Nvidia also put up to $10 billion into Anthropic, another $2 billion into CoreWeave, and guaranteed the lease on an Ohio data center that OpenAI will fill with — you guessed it — Nvidia chips. One central bank analysis found that 55% of all investment into AI companies comes from other AI companies. The industry is funding itself. Here's the thing: this isn't automatically a scam. Vendor financing built the railroads and the telecom networks — suppliers funding customers to bootstrap a real market. The bull case is that end demand is genuine: enterprises and consumers are actually paying for AI, and this money is building infrastructure the world will use. Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang calls the circularity criticism, quote, "ridiculous." But here's why the market just freaked out — chip stocks fell seven straight days this week. We've seen this movie. In the dot-com era, telecom giants like Lucent and Nortel lent money to customers so those customers could buy their equipment. Revenue looked amazing — until the customers couldn't pay, and the vendors collapsed with them. The receivables were fiction. Look at the balance sheets now. OpenAI is reportedly on track to lose $14 billion this year. CoreWeave has $25 billion in debt against $2 billion in quarterly revenue. The hyperscalers are guiding $750 billion in spending this year. If real demand shows up, this all looks genius. If it doesn't, everyone owes everyone, and the circle becomes a noose. So the trillion-dollar question isn't whether the loop exists — it does, and it's documented. The question is whether there's enough real demand outside the loop to justify it. That's what Wall Street is voting on right now. #stocks #stocktrading #nvidia #cooked #finance
Professor Axolotl12,000 次观看 • 29 天前
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