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Wild documentation of Iranian cluster munitions raining down on Kuwait

Wild documentation of Iranian cluster munitions raining down on Kuwait

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Iran to become the fourth center of world power Robert Pape is an American political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago. His military planning and war-gaming experience includes teaching air-power strategy at the U.S. Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies (1991–1994). He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military and air-war strategy. For over 20 years, he has run Iran-war simulations in his strategy courses, modeling bombing campaigns, escalation dynamics, and political outcomes to help the military and government understand how force translates into political results. On the Mario Nawfal show, Robert Pape argued that Iran is on a rapid path to become the fourth center of world power (alongside the U.S., China, and Russia) within roughly a year to 18 months if the current conflict dynamics continue. He explained that the ongoing war has trapped the U.S. in an “escalation trap” across three stages: failed regime-change bombing that hardened the Iranian regime, horizontal escalation (drones hitting regional targets and selective control of the Strait of Hormuz), and potential ground operations. Iran has already gained practical control of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—allowing it to disrupt supplies, impose tolls, or expand influence to the Red Sea choke point. This would make Iran an oil hegemon richer than the U.S. (which produces ~16% of world oil). Combined with near-certain operational nuclear weapons (he estimated >90% chance of a dozen working bombs within a year if the war stops), Iran would acquire nuclear deterrence like North Korea while wielding unmatched energy leverage. Pape stressed he is not saying Iran is already the fourth power today, but that the war itself has created a “propitious” future for Tehran: it strengthens the regime, weakens adversaries, and positions Iran as a nuclear-armed regional hegemon capable of toppling Gulf states and reshaping global energy politics. Prolonged conflict or U.S. withdrawal would hand Iran this status, turning a contained adversary into a new pole of world power. He based this on 21 years of Iran-war modeling.

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