Nicholas Mugalli
@RealNickMugalli • 12,278 subscribers
Institutional TMT research, made public | daily Pre market brief + closing brief, trade alerts, earnings. Economics | Data, AI, semis & macro alpha |policy play
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Jensen: I'll buy everybody, let me be 1st World's No. 1 CEO Jensen Huang at a Taiwan night market, too lazy to wait in line, pays to skip ahead The female citizen involved: I originally thought, just like that, I'd say hi through his bodyguard... Didn't expect him to walk right up to me, buy fast pass with a thousand yuan bill... and then, happily score a grilled corn cob😂
Nicholas Mugalli3,693,080 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Yesterday everyone sold optics because "CPO is delayed to 2027." Today I'm looking at this video of an $NVDA CPO switch running in production at Lambda, wired into GB300 clusters. Both headlines are true. CPO at the SWITCH is shipping now, 144 ports of 800G, liquid cooled, roughly 70% less power per port than pluggable optics. CPO at the GPU, the version that kills the module makers, that's the 2027-28 story, and it always was. Why does the switch get light first? Because the back end fabric is 86% of networking power in these clusters. At GB300 scale the network isn't plumbing anymore, it's part of the compute. Every watt you don't burn moving bits is a watt that generates tokens. Tokens per watt is the metric now. And the detail nobody will talk about again is even inside NVIDIA's most advanced CPO switch, the lasers sit OUTSIDE the package. 18 swappable lightsource modules. Field serviceable, because lasers fail. Pluggable, near package, copackaged, doesn't matter. Every road still runs through the laser makers…
Nicholas Mugalli108,542 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
AppLovin CEO is trying to counter Anthropic’s CEO claims that SaaS is DEAD and never coming back. $APP is not an ad network. It is not a gaming company. It is an arbitrage engine with 400 engineers, $1.3 billion in cash flow per quarter, and a capital allocation track record that belongs in a business school curriculum. Start with the gaming studios. From 2018 to 2023, AppLovin acquired over 15 mobile gaming studios and 1,500 people. Nobody understood why. The answer was data. Third party advertisers would not share their conversion and ROAS data with AppLovin's model. So AppLovin became a first party advertiser — running its own games, generating its own behavioral data, feeding that data into Axon, its deep learning ad model. The studios were not a business. They were a training set. The moment Axon 2.0 launched in April 2023 and proved so effective that the entire gaming industry had to plug in and share their data to access the returns, the studios had served their purpose. AppLovin sold the entire portfolio to Tripledot and moved on. They used the asset to build the moat and immediately dumped the asset. That is not a pivot. That is a premeditated extraction. The 2022 buyback is the capital allocation move that defined the company's trajectory. The market had pushed AppLovin's market cap to $3.8 billion. The business was printing over $1 billion in EBITDA. Instead of open market repurchases, management identified that private equity backers and early insiders controlled nearly 50% of the float and needed liquidity. They bypassed the public market entirely, negotiated directly with those institutional holders, and executed a $6 billion leveraged buyback at the floor. Foroughi estimates that single decision generated $50 to $60 billion in retained value for remaining shareholders as the stock recovered. One negotiation. One decision. $50 billion created. The operating model is the part that should make every other tech CEO uncomfortable. AppLovin fired 40% of its workforce while growing revenue nearly 100% year over year. The C suite is four people—CEO, CFO, CTO, General Counsel. No CRO. No COO. No salesforce. Over 80% of the codebase is now written by AI, multiplying the output of their best engineers by up to 100x. The product does not need to be sold. Advertisers plug in, set a performance goal, and if the ROAS is positive they scale spend infinitely. The platform turns advertisers into blind arbitrageurs — they do not need to understand how it works, they just need to see the return. The TAM expansion is the next leg. Axon perfected gaming monetization. It is now being pointed at ecommerce and local SMBs — markets orders of magnitude larger than mobile gaming. The model does not need a sales team to penetrate them. It needs inventory and intent signals. It is acquiring both. The company has internal compensation triggers tied to a $1 trillion market cap. They went from $3.8 billion in 2022 to $154 billion today. The people running this business have done everything they said they would do, faster than anyone expected, with fewer people than anyone thought possible. That track record is the most important input in any forward model. Betting against a team that turned a $3.8 billion floor into $154 billion in three years, with 400 people, no salesforce, and an AI model that the entire industry has to use — requires a very specific and defensible thesis. Most of the people making that bet do not have one…stock is still being beaten to death…still not compelled. AI companies are just too good and getting better but interesting to see him come publicly to try to pump his stock
Nicholas Mugalli100,854 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
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