Ariel Hernandez
@RealSimpleAriel • 52,510 subscribers
Day trader turned swing trader. Here to help others improve their trading! Join me for live streaming on Discord. https://t.co/RRhmvGkkh0
Videos
$SMH just hit 10x ATR from the 50sma today! The last time SMH was this extended from the 50sma was... Never That's right. Since inception it has NEVER been this stretched from the 50sma. We are now part of history! Make sure you share and tag those who bitched and moaned about the low volume on the way up
Ariel Hernandez156,547 次观看 • 1 个月前
6/3/2026 Daily Recap: Time for profit taking? - $SNDK $WDC $MU all close in positive territory but starting to speed up quite a bit. - $MRVL Could have very well seen it's highs for a while after trading 20x ATR from the 50sma last night. - Momentum in the optics quickly erased. $AAOI $LITE. $CIEN $GLW $COHR I thought acted much better but Ciena with earnings tomorrow. - Semiconductors still a leading group with $LRCX $KLAC $NVTS $RMBS $ON $SIMO and more all seeing new highs for the move. - Mega caps came under some pressure today $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $NVDA $AAPL all closing down 1-3% for the day. - $CRWD with earnings in the after hours session trading down about $70. Expected pause after the run up into earnings. - Software came under the most pressure b2b days after a very a very large move over the past month. $MSFT $PLTR $NOW $SNOW $MDB - Uranium names after showing big strength yesterday proceed to round trip most of the move as well. $CCJ $UEC $UUUU - With $XLK as extended as it still is, a multi week pause would really be helpful or else we could see some blow off moves which I view as a negative
Ariel Hernandez22,740 次观看 • 6 天前
5/16/2026 Daily Recap: Bulls ready for the Hamptons? - $QQQ $SPY small change in character recently with the deterioration in breadth under the surface. - Hit with a gap down on Friday and closed near the lows. - I personally think it's healthy for things to go sideways a few weeks here, but I've been getting lots of pushback on that idea as if "this time is different" - $XLE best group on Friday with many constructive names going into next week. - Hard to imagine I play anything $USO related just because of how new driven that group will be. Maybe it's the wrong idea but I will stay patient for the AI trade to just tighten back up. - Neo clouds and the space theme will still be two groups at the top of my list. $NBIS $CIFR $WULF $CORZ $RKLB $LUNR $PL - Semiconductors coming under the smallest bit of pressure and it seems completely reasonable to think that group could rest for a few more weeks $INTC $AMD $MRVL $ARM $MXL $NVDA $AVGO $TSM. - $CIBR $CRWD $PANW $FTNT $DDOG a group I will watch for any consolidation to see if I can hop abord what feels to be a frenzy of institution accumulation. - Solar names coming back to life in a big way recently. $ENPH $SEDG $NXT. It's always nice when we get another group to trade. - Gold $GLD Silver $SLV and Copper $COPX coming under some pressure on Friday. I don't love the positioning picture for copper. - I also don't love seeing the US Dollar come to life $DXY. Typically a strong dollar = bad for emerging markets. Emerging markets also include South Korea which is basically all SK HYNIX and Samsung. Not something I will panic over but will keep a close eye on that relationship if the dollar strengthens. - Still lots to be optimistic about but patience for new merchandise feels like the right move or smaller size.
Ariel Hernandez17,730 次观看 • 24 天前
1/23/2026 Daily Recap: Emerging markets lead. - $ARGT $EWZ $EWW $COLO and other emerging markets is where money is clearly going too. - Looking at $SPY/ $EEM and you can clearly see our markets breaking down versus the rest of the world. - $XLF with $WFC and $COF have been a real drag on the $SPY. $JPM $BAC $C are coming under pressure as well. - $MA $V also look like the start of stage 4 downtrends. - $SNDK rejected the $500 several times before finally deciding it was time to rest -6% - $XBI a possible failed breakout attempt - $KRE also a possible failed breakout attempt. - $IWM is bio and regional bank loaded which is why the Russell fell -1.85% today. - $INTC down -17% on earnings. And when looking at the $SMH I would ask anyone to show me WHICH semiconductors are setup in a clean base ready to push higher. - Rare earth stocks continued a nice trend today $USAR $CRML $UUUU - Nice push from the young data center related names. $APLD $HUT $IREN $CIFR. Lets see if we can get some follow through next week! - It's been choppy and buying U&Rs is likely the best way to play this market while chop persists. Thinking about holding for more than 2-3 sessions without a trim is a bit of a fools errand.
Ariel Hernandez55,508 次观看 • 4 个月前
5/14/2026 Daily Recap: Hindenburg omen strikes again. - $QQQ $SPY closed up on the day one again reaching 10x ATR extension from he 50sma. - We saw a healthy pause in the Memory and optic sector which had been running a little hot $AAOI $LITE $MU $SNDK $WDC $STX - $BE new all time closing high trying to come out of a high tight flag. - $CRCL stuck in neutral after the senate banking committee passes the clarity act. - $IGV appears to be seeing more participation today from an already beaten up cohort of software stocks. Either degrossing of shorts or accumulation of beaten up names is yet to be seen, but plenty of names catching a bid off the bottom. - $USO continues to hold up incredibly well but we seem to be looking past the idea of higher gas prices for now. $XLE constructive chart. - $NVDA market leader running away but starting to get a touched stretched in its own right. - $CBRS new IPO opens today oversubscribed. Halts into $385 and that marks the top. I am of the opinion that these richly valued IPOs are a money grab here and a multiweek fade will sour the mood for other equally rich valued IPOs down the pipeline. - Neo Clouds continue to act like one of the better young groups in the market. $NBIS $IREN $HUT $WULF $CIFR. - New positions are still fine but just be mindful of your position sizing and tight leash on new merchandise. - Let your leaders work if you own them!
Ariel Hernandez13,419 次观看 • 26 天前
2/19/2026 Daily Recap: Lightest volume of the year! - $ITA $UFO two groups which continue to see money flowing in. $GE $NOC $LMT $PL $RKLB $KTOS $HWM - $DE and industrials holding up very well on the back of a positive Deere reaction. $CAT $AGCO - $MSOS quietly closed as the highest group(pun intended) - Optic stocks remain a growth leader. $LITE $CIEN $AAOI $COHR - Memory names lead by $SNDK, $MU looking tight for tomorrow. $WDC $STX just consolidating. - $OIH still the leading group in the market, but it's also gotten to the point where i think a multiweek consolidation would be healthy. - $IGV $BTC finally tightening up well here and maybe have a chance to see an oversold bounce. - $QQQ $SPY continue to chop around but with the destruction in some of the biggest names, if we can just start to bounce I would suspect the Qs can find themself 2-3% from an ATH in a hurry.
Ariel Hernandez29,343 次观看 • 3 个月前
3/18/2026 Daily Recap: Time to rip the band aid off? - PPI came in above expectations .7% v .3% and that sent the market tumbling before the opening bell. - Jerome Powell than spoke in the afternoon and the market proceeds to roll over some more into the close. - $QQQ -1.4% aided by $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $NVDA $AMZN all closing lower. - $ARKK looks like a bear flag about ready to breakdown. Cathy's holdings are just acting like absolute garbage. - $USO $XLE $XOP continue its tear higher. $COP $FANG $DVN $OXY $VLO $MPC $APA all higher - $MU reported incredible earnings after the close today and down a modest 1%. Not a group we want to lose here or we start running out of bull cases on this market. $SNDK $WDC - $RKLB $ASTS $KTOS all rejected their 50sma today just after it looked like a renewed trend was possible - $BTC $ETH lead the markets on the down move today but is this just some digestion before trying to resume higher? - $XLV already losing ground quickly on the back $LLY - $XLP a defensive sector also taken down quickly. - $XLF also no real signs of life which is hard to imagine we kick into a real bullish trend without financials. - $MAGS look like they need life support soon starting to establish themselves below the 200sma. - Traction remains hard to come by and for me it's been a better environment shorting into supply
Ariel Hernandez13,345 次观看 • 2 个月前
10/13/2025 Thoughts for tomorrow: Charts are not tight and there is a 0% chance I am buying 3-5% gap ups as a chase long. There were no clean entries to buy for a weekend hold. More tomorrow morning during premarket prep. $BTC $ETH $PLTR $NVDA $TSLA $ARKK $SQQQ $RKLB $BABA
Ariel Hernandez29,319 次观看 • 8 个月前
2/12/2026 Daily Recap: Rip off the band aid please! - $XLF the big story in my eyes. Decisively losing the 200sma with the help of $SCHW $JPM $C $WFC $MS - $XLP continues to scream risk off. Even though it's possible we digest there for a few weeks soon. - $IYT hit hard but still in a fresh uptrend. no help from $RXO $ODFL $XPO - $SLV biggest loser for the day. $GLD not too far behind. I still think metals have topped for now and can easily revisit October highs - $AMAT $ANET nice gap on earnings in after hours today. Need to see these names gap and hold if we are going to EVER see the $QQQ rebound and eventually break higher. - $IGV still the largest lagging group right next to $BTC - $MAGS looks like a stage 3 top as well. Losing $NVDA below $175-170 and the 200sma would likely put a nail in the coffin. $AAPL latest victim after looking like a safe haven for the last few weeks during market volatility. $META $AMZN $NFLX $MSFT broken. $GOOGL $AAPL $TSLA below their respective 50sma. $NVDA last general standing. - Memory and Optic names need the market generals to bounce back if they are gonna have their blow off moves. Otherwise they will have a hard time continuing the upstream swing $SNDK $MU $STX $WDC $LITE $GLW $CIEN
Ariel Hernandez15,267 次观看 • 3 个月前
2/9/2026 Daily Recap: Software on the rise - $IGV +3% seeing the long awaited bounce $MSFT $ORCL $PLTR $CRWD all +3% or more on the day. - $XOP continues to act as if a much bigger move is on the horizon over the coming months. $XOM $CVX $XLO $RIG $VAL $TDW - Semis continue to be lead higher by $TSM. $NVDA nice bounce back the past two sessions up 12% and $CRDO releases prelim earnings up 15% in the after hours session. - $ITA with a little more work ahead but nice action from $HWM $PL $RKLB today - $AA with what looks to be a bull flag breakout. Commodities with the metals still acting well. $FCX $SCCO $NEM $AEM. Optic names one of the strongest momentum themes currently. $GLW $LITE $CIEN $AAOI - $WGMI names put on a nice show the last two days. $WULF $APLD best of the bunch. $IREN $CIFR right on the underside of the 50sma. More info tomorrow. - After a strong 2 day rally do we just get a little bit of a market pause?
Ariel Hernandez15,104 次观看 • 4 个月前
1/5/2025 Daily Recap: Where is money going? - Space stocks continue to be one of the strongest themes on my screens. $RKLB $ASTS $PL $KTOS $HWM $UFO $ITA - $AAPL loses the 50sma today and $MSFT below the 200sma but no affect on the market - Financials also starting to accelerate higher $JPM $MS $GS $SCHW $BAC $WFC $XLF - Semiconductors is a group of have versus have not. $TSM $AMSL $KLAC $LRCX $NVMI vs $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $ALAB $CRDO - $XLE $OIH related names have a massive day on the back of the Venezuela news. $XOM $SLB $CVX $HAL - $AA $CENX for aluminum $FCX $SCCO for copper have steady trends but no good here for new buys. - $CIEN $LITE $AAOI big reversals today in some of the optic names. - $BABA $PDD $BIDU $FUTU Chinese equities are really taking shape here - $BTC $ETH nice multiday rally. $HUT best of the bunch. $COIN one I am keeping an eye on.
Ariel Hernandez17,964 次观看 • 5 个月前
2/4 Recap & Watchlist video: Toilet Paper versus Tech - There might have been 30 stocks on my radar down 10-20% today ranging from $AMD $RDDT $ASTS $RKLB to $ONDS $PLTR $KTOS and $BE. Carnage everywhere! - $IYT transports are seeing massive accumulation lead by $XPO $ODFL - $XLP lead by $WMY $PG $KO $PM and $PEP are seeing very strong rotation - $XLI another leading group with $DE $CMI in steady trends. - Software and Semis continue to get hammered but it was finally a day when $IGV outperformed $SMH. I actually think that's a good pair trade going forward. Long $IGV vs short $SMH even though not something I think I would participate in. - $XLE sitting at decade highs. $XOM $CVX $VLO $HAL $SLB I think will continue to be big winners all year. - $BTC $ETH hitting new lows once again and all on a day when $MCD is hitting new highs. The market has one funny sense of humor! - Stay nimble and don't be stubborn. The market is showing you clear as day where money is going and where money is leaving.
Ariel Hernandez13,918 次观看 • 4 个月前
2/11/2026 Daily Recap: Another day of chop - $IGV met with more selling on the back of $INTU $MSFT $U $ORCL and friends. - $IYT sees some profit taking -.8% - $XLE starting to get a bit short term stretched. $XOM 10x ATR from the 50sma and likely needs a cool down period. - Memory stocks bounce back sharply today up double digits on $MU $SNDK. Micron with a $450 upgrade from Morgan Stanley. $XLF continued weakness and into the 200sma is not what we want to see. $JPM $SCHW $C $WFC. Need to stay in an uptrend if we want to remain in a market risk on environment. $XLP (toilet paper) continues higher. Signaling that even if you get laid off due to #AI you still need to wipe your ass. - $DE $CAT $GEV leading the way for industrials. An very powerful trend. - $RSP another new all time closing high which is bullish yet a choppy $SPY and $QQQ. - Hopefully everyone is trading well and staying out of trouble!
Ariel Hernandez12,632 次观看 • 3 个月前
2/18/2026 Daily Recap: It's all about energy! - $OIH $XLE continue to be the leading groups in the market by a mile in 2026 and there doesn't seem to be a reason for that to stop. $XOM $VLO $FANG $OXY $COP $HAL $SLB - $XLV still building out a clean base. over $159 could see some follow through. - $QQQ $SPY continue to chop around but there are already groups trying to lift and show renewed life. - $UFO finally woke up a bit today on the back of $PL $RKLB $KTOS - $ITA the other A&D group holding up well on the back of $GE $NOC $RTX. - $IGV closes 1.2% positive despite the 5th largest holding $PANW closed down 7%. - Earnings continues to be hit or miss. $CVNA 15% implosion on its report. - $IYT digesting its recent gains almost looks ready to continue higher. - $XLP another group still resting while $XLF has been on a recent 3 day bounce. Would love to see financials reclaim the 200sma. - Chop continues but individual names are starting to show up. One day at a time!
Ariel Hernandez12,017 次观看 • 3 个月前
