Scott Redler
@RedDogT3 • 271,151 subscribers
Founder of Red Dawg Mindset / Chief Strategist T3Live/T3TradingGroup, frequent CNBC/Bloomberg/Fox Biz guest, 2xIronman, devoted Husband & Father.
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The Ultimate Guide to Moving Averages This is an ultra deep dive into my moving averages system, shot at a $7,500 in-person event a few years back. You can learn: -How to use moving averages to judge stocks and the broader market -How to use moving averages to adjust market exposure -Why I use EMAs -What most people get wrong -Lessons from the Pandemic, Presidential elections, Brexit, war scares, $NVDA $RBLX $SPX $PENN $DOCN and more After you finish watching, get my free newsletter 2X a week: 💰 And if this video helped you learn at least one valuable thing about trading and technical analysis, Retweet to spread the word.
Scott Redler311,448 次观看 • 8 个月前
Know what to do before the market forces you to decide. 1. Before the trade — Should I trade? Is it a proven setup from your playbook? Does the market environment fit? Does the reward justify the risk? Do you have a clear invalidation level and the correct position size? Are you following your system, or do you just want action? If these don't align, pass. 2. At entry — What am I risking? Know your entry, stop, position size, initial $ risk, % of capital at risk, and your target or exit method. The chart determines the stop. The stop determines the position size. 3. After entry — Has anything actually changed? Is the setup still valid? Has your predetermined exit been reached? Has price action materially changed? Are you reacting to the chart or to your P&L? If nothing important has changed, don't invent a new decision. 4. When losing — Exit or hold? Hold only while your thesis and predefined risk remain valid. Exit when the stop is triggered, the setup is invalidated, market behavior violates your entry reason, or your risk limit is reached. Never turn a planned trade into an unplanned investment. 5. When winning — Exit or hold? Has the target been reached? Has the trailing stop triggered? Has the trend or setup weakened? Is there actual evidence to exit, or are you afraid of giving back profit? Let your exit rules manage the winner, not your emotions. 6. After the trade — What did I learn? Record the setup, entry, exit, risk, result in R, rule adherence, mistakes, a screenshot, and one lesson. Then separate two questions: did the strategy work, and did you execute it correctly? A losing trade can still be good execution. A winning trade can still involve bad execution. Make your important trading decisions before money is influencing your emotions.
Scott Redler28,241 次观看 • 1 个月前
A Simple Trading Strategy, step by step. 1. Identify the trend (4H) Uptrend = higher highs and higher lows, only look to buy. Downtrend = lower highs and lower lows, only look to sell. 2. Mark key levels (4H) Support and resistance, previous highs and lows, liquidity zones. This is where price reacts. Know your levels before looking for an entry. 3. Move to the lower timeframe Wait for price to reach one of your key levels. Don't rush the entry. Let price come to your area instead of chasing it. 4. Wait for confirmation (CHoCH / BOS) CHoCH = Change of Character. BOS = Break of Structure. These signal that market structure is changing or continuing in the direction you want to trade. 5. Find your entry (Order Block / FVG) After confirmation, mark the order block or fair value gap. Wait for price to pull back into that zone before entering. 6. Set stop loss and take profit Stop below structure for a long, above structure for a short. Target the next liquidity area, previous high, or previous low. Know where you're wrong before you enter. 7. Manage your risk Risk 1–2% per trade. Don't overtrade. Be patient. Don't force setups that aren't there. Trend → Key level → Wait → Confirmation → Entry zone → Stop/Target → Manage risk
Scott Redler22,350 次观看 • 28 天前
The Art of the First Day - SpaceX Edition $SPCX comes public Friday in its record-setting $1.75 billion IPO. The question is how to trade it? The Art of the First Day answers by focusing on 2 things: -Where fear sets in -Where FOMO sets in You can argue all day about valuation and growth potential. But the the price action will show you where real demand and supply are. That's how we get paid. I've used the Art of the First Day in countless names over the years - everything from $CBRS to $COIN to $HOOD to $META and even oldies like $LNKD and $TWTR. And you can learn it here for free:
Scott Redler57,070 次观看 • 4 个月前
📺 IS MOMENTUM FINALLY BACK? A PAUSE TODAY WOULD BE HEALTHY + $META EXPLODED — IS $AMZN NEXT? + CAN $NVDA BREAK THE DOUBLE TOP? + $SPCX ANOTHER UNLOCK + $TSLA COILING Monday's rally was much bigger than most traders could have anticipated, but there were clues that something was changing beneath the surface. After the Fed, the market spent two days digesting near the upper end of its range instead of breaking down. Oil moved lower, semiconductors improved, the Mag 7 strengthened, and most importantly, $QQQ reclaimed its 8-day and 21-day moving averages. That was the signal to stop fighting the market and begin shifting from neutral/negative toward neutral/positive. Then came the explosion higher. * After such a huge candle, however, we don’t necessarily need another massive rally today. A pause or some sideways digestion would actually be healthy. That would give traders a chance to see which stocks hold up best and show the relative strength needed to lead the next move. * $QQQ is particularly important. It has spent roughly five months trading sideways, and now it’s attempting to finally leave that range behind. If momentum is truly returning, you want to identify the leaders early rather than chase them after they become extended. * The Mag 7 $MAGS gave us some of the clearest clues. $META reclaimed its moving averages, held above the 8-day and then exploded higher yesterday. That technical sequence gave traders time to adjust before the huge breakout candle. Now I am watching $AMZN. Amazon had several frustrating attempts to get going during the summer, but that happened during one of the worst momentum environments we’ve seen. The lesson: just because a setup failed in a bad environment doesn’t mean you abandon the stock when conditions improve. $AMZN is back above its moving averages, showing relative strength, and this move may only be getting started. * $NVDA is also repairing. After forming a double top around $234-$236 and pulling back toward the 100-day, it has reclaimed its moving averages and is once again within striking distance of those highs. Can $NVDA finally break the double top? * $SPCX has a different catalyst: another unlock on September 24. The big question is whether the market can absorb the additional supply. It quickly reclaimed last week’s false breakdown, but getting through the unlock while holding its structure could open the door to another move. I sold some puts around the $150 strike, based on my view that SPCX is unlikely to completely fall apart. * And $TSLA is quietly getting interesting again. #Tesla hasn’t had the same momentum as some other mega-cap names, but it’s rebuilding, working back toward key moving averages and tightening into an apex. That puts it near an important decision area. #TSLA still has to prove the robotaxi/autonomy narrative can create a new leg of sustained momentum, but technically it’s beginning to improve. * So, the bigger message today: market conditions change, and traders have to change with them. After months of chop, the signals are improving. But after yesterday’s explosive move, don’t be in a rush to chase. Let the market digest. Watch relative strength. And pay attention to the stocks that refuse to give much back. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Scott Redler12,372 次观看 • 1 个月前
📺 RATES ARE AT 2007 HIGHS — SO WHY AREN’T STOCKS BREAKING? + $NVDA HAS A NEW TRADE + $MU GAP-FILL SETUP + KEY LEVELS TO WATCH INTO THE FED The market is heading into the Fed decision with plenty of reasons to break lower — yet it keeps refusing to do it. $SPY continues to hold above last week’s lows around $756.64-$757 and remains around its 50-day despite an increasingly difficult macro backdrop. Rates are at their highest levels since 2007, $TLT remains under pressure, oil is near its summer highs, and AI sentiment has deteriorated. Yet traders who tried to aggressively press shorts yesterday weren’t rewarded. That resilience matters. The macro picture may look bearish, but price still hasn’t provided decisive downside confirmation. * Remember the last Fed day? $SPY broke the lows, everyone thought the 200-day was next, and traders piled into shorts. Then there was no downside follow-through. The market regrouped and produced a fast and furious move higher over the next two sessions. That’s the lesson heading into this Fed: don’t marry the first move. Let the market show you what it wants to do. * $NVDA is a good example of how quickly a trade can change in the current environment. The previous setup was a potential move toward new highs, but the break below $229.63 confirmed that the chart had changed. Now this isn’t an all-time-high trade — it’s potentially an oversold bounce/gap-fill trade. $NVDA is now around $212 and needs to get above and stay above $212.77. If it can, that could trigger a tactical gap trade toward the 50-day and potentially fill more of the overhead gap. The key is always adjusting your expectations: this is a cash-flow trade against support, not necessarily the beginning of another major leg higher. * $MU is setting up similarly. It’s bouncing and approaching an overhead gap, with roughly $931-$932 as the key trigger. Get above $932 and stay there, and there could be a quick trade toward $940 as shorts get squeezed and algorithms chase the gap. Get rejected at $932 and leave the gap open, and that tells you something about the underlying weakness. * I would watch $NVDA and $MU today together. If both begin reclaiming their gap levels, that would provide better confirmation for a tactical semiconductor/memory bounce. * $QQQ is another one to watch closely. It bounced from the $702.70 area, giving traders a clearly defined level against which to manage risk. Key levels into the Fed: – $SPY: $756.64-$757 support – $QQQ: $702.70 support * So, this is not the environment to force big predictions or oversized directional bets. Bring expectations down, trade the levels, protect your capital and don’t jump over your skis ahead of the Fed. If the first post-Fed move breaks down but gets no downside follow-through, be willing to readjust. If support genuinely fails and sellers finally take control, respect that too. Rates, oil and AI headlines say stocks should be under much more pressure. The fact that they aren’t is information in itself. Let price confirm the next move. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Scott Redler12,573 次观看 • 1 个月前
$SPY IS COILED FOR A BREAKOUT TO $800 + $NVDA TO $250? HERE’S THE SETUP + $IREN $50 COMES INTO PLAY + WHAT’S NEXT FOR $SPCX & $TSLA Get today's newsletter: The market continues to rotate aggressively from day to day and week to week, making stock selection and disciplined execution critical. There’s good money to be made, but the opportunities remain very specific. $SPY has spent the past eight days building a tight bull flag after reclaiming its major moving averages and powering higher. Now the question is whether PPI can provide the catalyst for the next breakout. Inflation number came in light, now watch $775 and then $776.85. A clean move through those levels could produce another new high and potentially put $800 into play. * $NVDA remains one of the cleanest setups on the radar. The stock has built its own eight-day bull flag, with the moving averages catching up underneath. Around $225 is the key trigger: clear that level and there isn’t much standing in the way of a move toward $230. But the bigger opportunity could come around earnings on August 26. A pre-earnings run followed by a strong reaction to the numbers could potentially open the door to $250. I am already long $NVDA stock and options and plan to add additional risk over the next month if the setup continues developing. * $IREN was one of my best trades yesterday after anticipating strength from $NBIS. September $45 calls were accumulated while $IREN was still trading tightly, and the move worked as $NBIS delivered. Now $42 becomes an important reference level for $IREN. If it can hold there, consolidate and eventually clear resistance, the stock would be back above all its major moving averages. The next objective is $50. Longer term, I believe $IREN could be a “stock of the future.” * $TSLA has been a completely different story. A lower-level tactical trade produced some gains for me over the past week and a half, but the stock reversed yesterday and stopped me out. Some options remain in case #TSLA suddenly wakes up, but for now the setup remains difficult. In hindsight, $SPCX was the much better place to be. The stock delivered a fast and furious move after earlier opportunities to sell $95 and $90 puts and buy shares around $110. But after the huge run, the risk/reward has changed. The $150–$155 area now looks like significant resistance, so this is not where I want to chase or add aggressively. * So, $SPY remains coiled near the highs with $775–$776.85 as the breakout zone and $800 potentially ahead. $NVDA could become a major driver of the next leg higher, with $225, $230 and potentially $250 in focus. $IREN is targeting $50 after the $NBIS catalyst, while $TSLA remains difficult and $SPCX is approaching a zone where traders should be careful about chasing. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Scott Redler12,328 次观看 • 2 个月前
📺 CPI DAY GAME PLAN + $MU & $SNDK READY TO BREAK OUT? + $AMZN STILL HAS MORE UPSIDE + $NBIS EARNINGS FUEL $IREN + CAN $TSLA REACH THE OVERHEAD GAP? I walk through my trading plan ahead of the CPI report, emphasizing disciplined risk management over predicting the data. I always trim winners into strength, stay flexible, and be prepared to increase exposure only if the market confirms the bullish setup after the inflation release. * The CPI report came in lighter-than-expected, helping fuel another leg higher for equities. Ahead of the open, $SPY is trading around $773.86 while $QQQ climbed to approximately $725.33, validating the constructive technical picture I outlined before the release. * One of my favorite setups remains Micron $MU. After weeks of tight, sluggish price action, I believe the stock is setting up for a potential "Day One" breakout. The first technical hurdle has already been cleared, and a move through the next key resistance level could open the door toward the low $90s. Although I trimmed part of the position before CPI to lock in gains, I made clear that I would become more aggressive if the market responded positively—and a lighter CPI supports that bullish scenario. * I also remain constructive on SanDisk $SNDK. I believe the company's earnings call demonstrated strong business visibility despite Wall Street's initial negative reaction. After consolidating tightly, #SNDK has begun to recover, reinforcing his view that the semiconductor trade still has room to run. Like #MU, I trimmed into strength while keeping meaningful upside exposure. * Meanwhile, Tesla $TSLA continues to repair its chart. While I still consider the longer-term structure damaged, I believe the recent price action has improved significantly. I remain long both shares and $340-strike calls, expecting #TSLA to continue advancing toward the overhead price gap, which represents the next major technical test for the stock. * Amazon $AMZN also remains one of my preferred swing trades. Despite moving more slowly than some other mega-cap technology names, the stock continues holding above both its 8-day moving average and its earnings gap. I think the broader bullish structure remains intact and that #Amazon simply needs more time before attempting fresh all-time highs. For new positions, I favor giving the trade additional time by using September-dated options. * The AI infrastructure theme received another major boost after Nebius $NBIS reported an outstanding quarter, sending the stock sharply higher. The strong earnings helped validate my bullish positioning in $IREN, which rallied nearly 9% in pre-market trading to approximately $43.29 after I accumulated multiple call option positions ahead of the report. The move reinforces my view that AI infrastructure remains one of the market's strongest long-term themes. * Finally, I highlight $QQQ, which continues building a constructive bull flag. With CPI coming in lighter than expected and $QQQ trading around $725.33 before the open, the Nasdaq remains well-positioned to extend its advance if buyers continue to support the move. * The biggest takeaway is that successful trading isn't about predicting economic data—it's about preparing for multiple outcomes, protecting profits, and having the flexibility to increase exposure once the market confirms your thesis. This CPI release offered a textbook example of why disciplined risk management and patience often outperform emotional trading around major macro events. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Scott Redler11,184 次观看 • 2 个月前
📺 IS $META STARTING A NEW NARRATIVE? + SEMIS WEAKNESS IS REAL + $AMZN THE NEXT ROTATION TRADE? One of the biggest questions right now: is $META latest AI announcement simply creating a short-term trading opportunity, or is it the beginning of an entirely new market narrative? Rather than focusing on headlines, watch price action. The initial reaction to the news is only the first step. What matters now is whether #Meta can hold key support, consolidate its gains, and begin a sustained bullish sequence. For swing traders, the $595 area is the key level that needs to hold. If #META continues to digest the move constructively, a breakout above $628 could signal the next leg higher. * While Meta has grabbed the spotlight, the bigger story may be the growing weakness across semis $SMH $SOXX. After leading the market for months, the leadership names are starting to show signs of fatigue. $MU lost momentum, broke important support, and closed near its lows. $SNDK appeared ready to break out before reversing sharply lower and triggering an active exit. These types of failed breakouts are often early signals that leadership within a sector may be changing. The 21-day moving average remains one of the most important technical levels to monitor. Throughout the rally since March, this moving average has consistently acted as support. Until leading stocks begin breaking and closing below it, the broader uptrend remains intact. A pullback toward the 50-day moving average can still be considered a normal correction rather than the start of a bear market. * Another important takeaway is the potential for sector rotation. If institutional money continues to leave semiconductors and AI infrastructure, it will likely seek opportunities elsewhere within large-cap technology. For example, $AMZN. Amazon is a value-oriented mega-cap technology stock that could benefit if investors rotate away from expensive AI winners. Despite a compelling long-term story and an attractive valuation relative to its history, Amazon has been frustrating to trade. Still, improving relative strength could attract fresh buying if this rotation continues. I purchased July 10 $250 call options, giving myself limited risk while allowing time for the rotation thesis to develop. * So, you should avoid making bold predictions during periods of uncertainty. Instead, define your risk, stay flexible, follow your trading rules, and let price action determine whether $META is launching a new AI narrative, whether semiconductor weakness deepens, and whether $AMZN becomes one of the next beneficiaries of market rotation. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Scott Redler13,656 次观看 • 3 个月前
📺 RED DOG REVERSALS & RED-TO-GREEN TRADES — CASH FLOW MODE Some short-term tactical trades inside choppy, range-bound markets: 1. $AMZN I had a profitable Red Dog Reversal trade from $197.28. The stock bounced and pushed toward the 8-day moving average. It wasn’t a massive breakout, but it was a tradable move. The key lesson: if you caught the reversal, you trim into strength near the 8-day. Then you look for an inside range setup to potentially extend gains. 2. $NVDA Nvidia remains stuck in an annoying range. Now it’s sitting around $187. If it holds $186.76 and tightens up, you could buy weakness for a “red-to-green” move. Again, this is range trading — not trend trading. 3. $SNDK SanDisk offered a massive intraday opportunity yesterday — down 15 to up 15. It’s now above the 8/21-day moving averages, showing relative strength. The sharp pullback was a gift if traded properly. It remains one of the stronger names (“best in breed”) and could continue sideways before another push. 4. $MU / $WDC Micron held $392, respected the wedge pattern, and pushed higher. Western Digital is also firm. Treat these memory stocks as a group — if they’re acting well together, that’s constructive. 5. $AAPL $262 is an area to watch, but it’s still range-bound. * This market is largely range-bound. Very few stocks are making decisive higher highs. Key takeaway: do the tactical cash-flow trading now.
Scott Redler18,090 次观看 • 8 个月前
