Ryan Chern
@ryanchern • 2,034 subscribers
@vistadex | podcast: https://t.co/l7DgfAYfJD
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On June 13, Polymarket removed the taker delay for all World Cup matches. Here's what a goal looks like without it for the ARG win market at the 85' mark: - 13,848 shares were resting within 5¢ of the ask when the ball crossed - 90% of all cancels occurred within 65ms of each other - First post-goal taker order lands 63ms behind the cancels and picks off less than $800 - Total sniped on a 3x book move: <$1,000 (600+ total active maker addresses, 11 adversely filled)
Ryan Chern386,321 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
Messi's final World Cup moment: the perfect cross off his right foot triggered an explosion of buy orders for Argentina. More than 1,000 traders bought over $650,000 of Argentina, eating through the sell wall posted by 127 market makers. Within 4 seconds of the goal, every offer priced at 80c or below had been filled. Over the next few seconds, buyers cleared the 80-92c wall across 819 trades, resetting the best offer 407 times until a single $50k order finally broke through. During this time, market makers adjusted 8.2 million shares across roughly 9,000 order additions and cancellations. A couple of market makers in particular appear to be running questionable strategies and seem to be very insistent on being continuously run over.
Ryan Chern70,059 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
1/ Four key moments from the ARG-ESP World Cup finals, starting with Spain's goal at the 106' mark: Argentina-win book (crashed from 40% --> 12%) - 25k shares resting within 5c when the ball crossed the line - First cancel occurred 70ms before the ball crossed, removing liquidity at the point of foot contact - 80% of all cancels landed within 262ms of each other, 95% of size removed from the book before takers landed Spain-win book (ran from 60% --> 88%) - 15k shares resting within 5c when the ball crossed the line - Only 15% of cancels landed in time - A 10k limit order from one maker failed to remove in time and was executed at 60.3c, accounting for the majority of the Spain-book losses associated with the goal
Ryan Chern35,567 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
In less than 4 seconds, 44 unique makers on Polymarket lost $19k to 6 takers. First trade: 1.44 seconds after LeBron's tweet Crossed 50¢: 2.26 seconds Reached 99¢: 3.98 seconds First-come, first-served markets create zero-sum latency races that degrade long-term liquidity. This market structure is inherently taker-favored: makers must remove stale quotes before anyone else in the world can take them. Because they can be picked off during every major repricing event, they are forced to quote wider and provide less depth. Exchanges want volume and to lead price discovery. But knowing LeBron chose Philadelphia four seconds earlier provides zero value to most users and imposes negative externalities on the traders creating the prices that observers consume. Different market structures (batch auctions, maker-prioritized cancels) trade off marginally slower re-pricing during rare news events with deeper liquidity throughout the rest of the market.
Ryan Chern17,010 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
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