Ryan Chern
@ryanchern • 2,041 subscribers
information frontier @vistadex | @capitola_xyz | podcast: https://t.co/l7DgfAXHU5
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On June 13, Polymarket removed the taker delay for all World Cup matches. Here's what a goal looks like without it for the ARG win market at the 85' mark: - 13,848 shares were resting within 5¢ of the ask when the ball crossed - 90% of all cancels occurred within 65ms of each other - First post-goal taker order lands 63ms behind the cancels and picks off less than $800 - Total sniped on a 3x book move: <$1,000 (600+ total active maker addresses, 11 adversely filled)
Ryan Chern385,767 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Messi's final World Cup moment: the perfect cross off his right foot triggered an explosion of buy orders for Argentina. More than 1,000 traders bought over $650,000 of Argentina, eating through the sell wall posted by 127 market makers. Within 4 seconds of the goal, every offer priced at 80c or below had been filled. Over the next few seconds, buyers cleared the 80-92c wall across 819 trades, resetting the best offer 407 times until a single $50k order finally broke through. During this time, market makers adjusted 8.2 million shares across roughly 9,000 order additions and cancellations. A couple of market makers in particular appear to be running questionable strategies and seem to be very insistent on being continuously run over.
Ryan Chern70,059 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
1/ Four key moments from the ARG-ESP World Cup finals, starting with Spain's goal at the 106' mark: Argentina-win book (crashed from 40% --> 12%) - 25k shares resting within 5c when the ball crossed the line - First cancel occurred 70ms before the ball crossed, removing liquidity at the point of foot contact - 80% of all cancels landed within 262ms of each other, 95% of size removed from the book before takers landed Spain-win book (ran from 60% --> 88%) - 15k shares resting within 5c when the ball crossed the line - Only 15% of cancels landed in time - A 10k limit order from one maker failed to remove in time and was executed at 60.3c, accounting for the majority of the Spain-book losses associated with the goal
Ryan Chern34,908 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Daha fazla içerik yok.