Sam Bowman
@s8mb • 68,164 subscribers
Editor at @WorksinProgMag and @StripePress.
Videos
Fertility is collapsing all around the world, not just in the developed West: - Mexico now has lower fertility than the US (even non-Hispanic whites!). - Arab-Israeli fertility is now lower than that of Jewish Israelis. - For first time in 200 years, rich people are having MORE kids than poor. Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (Jesús Fernández-Villaverde) sat down with me and Pieter Garicano to talk about the economics of the fertility collapse, why education can be such a curse for birth rates, why the collapse is happening almost as much in the Muslim and developing worlds as in the rich world, and why so many attempts to address it fail. We also discuss 'no regrets' policies that could help: clearer data for students about the value (or not) of college degrees; lotteries for admissions to the top universities; subsidies for third or fourth children; and, of course, bigger, nicer and more plentiful housing. Listen now. Links below. 0:07:48 Japan’s GDP output per worker vs. per capita 0:16:21 The debt paradox: Why are East Asian bonds still cheap despite demographic decline? 0:24:37 Fertility is falling faster in Mexico than the US 0:34:00 The rapid fall of TFRs across the Muslim world 0:42:11 Zero-to-one versus two-to-three children 0:51:00 A ‘no-regrets’ policy for fertility and welfare 0:55:48 The education trap 1:07:31 The grim returns on certain college degrees 1:11:46 Why policies must incentivize the third child, not the first.
Sam Bowman5,642,536 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten
Huge from the PM. Starmer accepts the Fingleton Review *and* pledges to extend it to other infrastructure: data centres, railways, tramways, towns, labs, and more. Massive, and a big shift from the Treasury's equivocation. Implementation will be a big battle, but we can win.
Sam Bowman635,696 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
Sculpture is what separates beautiful Victorian cast-iron drinking fountains from the cheap plastic ones built today, and what makes ornamented buildings of the past so enthralling. In a sense, a medieval cathedral IS a giant sculpture. And, more than any other art form,
Sam Bowman33,680 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen
My take on the budget: - More than twice as many people paying 42% income tax by 2029 as in 2020 thanks to fiscal drag - £96bn in extra spending commitments since last summer, most of it entirely unnecessary - Paralysis when it comes to doing any pro-growth reform Watch now!
Sam Bowman73,054 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
Dan Wang (Dan Wang) is the most insightful observer of China writing in English today. His new book, Breakneck, explains how China builds so much, and contrasts its ideology of engineering with the sclerotic legalism of the West. He sat down with me and Pieter Garicano to talk about how Chinese power politics really works, the surprising importance of science fiction to China's ideologues, why Europe is even worse off than America, and whether China can continue to innovate and grow under its authoritarian system. Plus: where to get the Suzhou soup noodles in London. Listen now on the Works in Progress Podcast. Links to listen and subscribe below. 00:00:00 – Why China is a "Leninist technocracy with grand opera characteristics" 00:10:18 – Why engineers keep ending up in charge 00:25:30 – How to become General Secretary of the CCP 00:31:00 – China gets the basics right 00:41:19 – Why Europe is so crippled 01:04:50 – The market undersupplies process knowledge 01:08:00 – Why we would worry more about China if the KMT was in charge
Sam Bowman97,285 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten
According to Anton Howes (Dr Anton Howes), we have Henry VIII to thank for the Industrial Revolution. Henry VIII might be England's worst king. He debased the currency, imposed devastating wealth taxes, and brought England into pointless and wasteful wars. By the time he died the country was on its knees. But a small group of reformers, including Thomas Gresham (of Gresham's Law fame), seized the moment and saved England. Their reforms led to England emerging a mercantile power, laying the foundations of the Elizabethan Golden Age and Britain's eventual rise as the world's industrial and capitalist powerhouse. Anton also talks about how Britain's road network got built, how the written word made economic reforms possible, and the circumstances that made mercantilism actually sensible. Listen and watch now on the Works in Progress Podcast. Links below to listen and subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Substack, and Youtube. 0:01:03 Why Britain led the Industrial Revolution. 0:04:02 By 1700 Britain already looks like an innovation hub. 0:08:58 Infrastructure as destiny: canals and turnpike roads. 0:09:55 England’s horsepower advantage. 0:15:52 England’s post‑plague recovery. 0:18:39 Was England's lead already obvious by the mid‑1500s? 0:25:12 Worst king ever: Henry VIII's wars and taxes. 0:39:55 Currency debasement, inflation, and why it was a turning point. 0:52:06 Why not adjust to higher prices? 0:55:43 A small coalition changes England's destiny. 1:01:45 Institutions vs people: patents, joint‑stock corporations and the idea of invention. 1:07:54 Why England rose while others stalled.
Sam Bowman94,467 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten
Nuclear power is back. After decades of stagnation, people are starting to wonder how we can build nuclear reactors as quickly and cheaply as we did in the 20th Century I sat down with Alex Chalmers and Ben Southwood to talk about why nuclear power can be so good, why it flopped, and how to get it back again. We discuss: • The astonishing energy density of uranium – 100g of it produces the same energy as 1.5 tons of coal – and why it matters • Why nearly every country in the world forgot how to do cheap nuclear at the same time • How the French state built 37 reactors in ten years • Why even solar power optimists should want a nuclear renaissance Plus: Why nuclear meltdowns aren't as scary as people think! Listen now. Links below! Spotify: Apple: Youtube:
Sam Bowman46,689 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
This Harry Potter Balenciaga thing is probably the most impressive thing I’ve seen done with AI yet
Sam Bowman249,404 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren
Should we BAN ugly buildings? A recent tweet by yours truly suggested that we should. I said that people ought to be able to require certain design standards in their neighbourhoods. While many supported me, some of my more libertarian followers – especially those "Down Under" – did not. I sat down with Samuel Hughes and Ben Southwood to talk about whether I was onto something, or if I've just gone statist in my middle age. We discuss whether beauty has to cost more, whether it's possible to have local control over design without it becoming a vehicle for obstructionism, the pro-beauty case against historical preservationism, and why locals having a financial stake in outcomes might be the solution. Apple Podcasts: Spotify: Youtube: 0:00:00 The "Bat Tunnel" theory of NIMBYism 0:04:47 Why were cities beautiful before the Great Downzoning? 0:07:53 Why YIMBYs should embrace beauty 0:15:45 Does beauty actually cost more? 0:21:18 Why current design reviews fail, like in Berkeley 0:26:53 Business Improvement Districts as emergent local government 0:33:51 Canada's ugly pattern book 0:41:20 The YIMBY Haredim of South Tottenham 0:47:00 Death to historic preservationism 1:00:22 Fixing incentives to beat the "vocal minority" 1:12:46 Do people stop caring about design when they have a financial stake?
Sam Bowman58,818 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
I sat down with Samuel Hughes and Ben Southwood to discuss THE GREAT DOWNZONING. Why did the world ban housebuilding in a matter of years in the 20th Century – and what can this tell us about changing course? Samuel (Samuel Hughes) explains why zoning was so popular in cities as diverse as Nuremburg, Paris, London and Boston, and how private zoning rules often existed before state rules were introduced. Plus: • Why zoning began in Imperial Germany and Austria-Hungary. • The surprising irrelevance of the motorcar. • What we can learn from Tokyo and other cities that escaped the Great Downzoning. • Why micro-democracy might be the key to getting a Great Upzoning. The new episode of the Works in Progress Podcast, with links to listen below. 00:00 What is the Great Downzoning? 00:55 The birth of private zoning in Germany & Austria-Hungary 06:50 The legal technology that froze suburbs in aspic 26:55 How WW1 rent controls stopped apartment building 38:28 Railways and trams: how mass transit shapes density 51:18 Beauty’s externality problem — why markets may underprovide beauty 1:04:33 Street votes, lessons from Tokyo & how to start a Great Upzoning
Sam Bowman87,637 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten
Ending Europe's stagnation might be the most important thing in the world right now. Capitalism and liberal democracy have their deepest roots in Europe, but its economic sclerosis is making it irrelevant. • Five US companies spend more on R&D annually than the entire public sector of every European country combined. • Europe's AI sector is worth less than one hundredth of America's. • It is five times more expensive to fire someone in Germany or France than in America. Staff turnover in the US is ten times higher than it is in Germany. • There is no shortage of European entrepreneurs – the problem is that many of them are moving away to set up their businesses. One in ten US startups has a European co-founder. • EU countries shut down 80 gigawatts' worth of coal-fired power plants during the 2010s, with most of the shortfall being made up by expensive, unreliable wind and solar power. • The EU charges about six times more per ton of carbon than China does, and about 50 percent more than California. Most US states don't price carbon emissions at all. On the Works in Progress Podcast, I sat down with Pieter Garicano and Aria Schrecker to talk about what's gone wrong and what Europeans can do to return to the growth and dynamism that once made Europe the world's preeminent civilization. Listen now! Spotify: Apple: Youtube: Substck:
Sam Bowman31,448 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
Only 2% of the public believes that a new development will improve their area. No wonder they fight them! Create Streets’s Nicholas Boys Smith (Nicholas Boys Smith) joined the Works in Progress Podcast to explain what planners and developers have been getting wrong, how to create places people like, and the createstreets tricks for winning over NIMBYs. Listen for Nicholas's views on urbanism and my (and Ben Southwood's) provocations. We debated 'giga density', cul-de-sacs, big roads, repetitive designs, and knocking down so-called historic streets. Links to listen and subscribe below. 00:00:00 - Gentle density 00:08:34 - Pattern books and design codes 00:17:18 - Why people don't like new buildings 00:25:28 - How to design a network of streets 00:34:08 - I defend tower blocks 00:43:40 - Historic preservation is a front 00:49:29 - Against 'traffic modernism' 01:01:46 - The politics of housing reform today 01:08:21 - Great streets around the world
Sam Bowman61,966 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten
Apply now for Invisible College, Works in Progress's summer seminar for 18–22 year olds.
Sam Bowman19,859 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten
Mike Bird is obsessed with land. It is, he says, the hidden driver of credit cycles, revolutions, and economic development. You cannot understand the 20th Century, let alone the present day, without it. Ben (Ben Southwood) and I sat down with him (Mike Bird) to hear all about his ideas and his new book. We talked about everything from the legacy of colonialism in cities like Singapore and Hong Kong, to the Chinese communist revolution, to the gigantic influence of Henry George, to how the rise of Yakuza looks a lot like the rise of a property developer. Listen now on the Works in Progress Podcast. Links to listen and subscribe below. 00:00 - What is "The Land Trap"? 03:20 - Singapore & Hong Kong's colonial legacies 08:03 - What gives land value? 14:20 - How Chinese local governments fund themselves with land sales 18:30 - Asia's extreme house price-to-income ratios 24:15 - Hong Kong's housing shortage (95% unbuilt!) 30:20 - Post-war land reforms in Japan, Korea & Taiwan 35:40 - Land readjustment: The German system that rebuilt Japan 44:40 - The forgotten ideas of Henry George 59:40 - Why banks love lending against property 1:06:40 - How shopping malls pay for railways Enjoy listening!
Sam Bowman60,946 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten
Congressman Jake Auchincloss (Jake Auchincloss) wants to find a cure for America's cost disease. High costs in sectors with low productivity growth and labour intensity should, he says, be the centre of the Democratic Party's economic agenda: making sectors like housing, healthcare, education and utilities more efficient, more automated, and more affordable. He joined the Works in Progress podcast to talk about this agenda, and to make the case for building new cities, and not just expanding existing ones. Plus: We talk 19th Century American history and hear why the 1830s and 1840s, not the Gilded Age, may be the best map for America's politics today – and what non-Americans can learn from American history. Listen now, links below.
Sam Bowman32,560 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten
I was joined by Stian Westlake to talk about the intangible economy, govt funding for social science, why restaurants can't scale, and why it is that cities like San Francisco have become such powerful magnets for economic activity. Plus: • Why London dominates Britain's economy, but Berlin doesn't dominate Germany's. • What the social sciences can do to support better economic policy. • Whether the rise of intangible capital explains why housing constraints seem to have become especially bad since the 2000s. All on the new episode of the Works in Progress Podcast, with links to listen below.
Sam Bowman30,360 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten
Alice Evans (Alice Evans) wants to understand why the whole world has become more gender equal, but some societies have become so much more equal than others. Why have gender norms evolved so differently in, for example, South Korea and Sweden? Understanding this Great Gender Divergence, as Alice calls it, could also help us understand how culture mediates the effects of industrialisation and economic growth. Alice joined me and Aria Babu on the Works in Progress Podcast to discuss some of this. Plus: the global fall in fertility, and the role of friendship and love between men and women in driving gender equality. And is joint tax filing for married couples a subsidy, or does it actually remove an economically costly distortion? Listen now on the Works in Progress Podcast. Links to listen and subscribe below. 00:00:00 Why some societies have become far more gender equal than others 00:10:11 Men's attitudes to feminism in Asia 00:14:30 How cities changed everything 00:18:34 Dating markets in crisis 00:31:15 Industrialisation and the empowerment of women 00:42:25 Can any policy boost birth rates? 00:53:10 Can change be forced from the top? 01:00:18 Gender relations and the workplace
Sam Bowman18,182 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten
Why today's Nuclear Taskforce report matters so much and why the government needs to adopt it in *full*.
Sam Bowman11,619 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten