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@seelffff7,016 subscribers

AI/ML engineer | @Polymarket believer DM is open/long-term cooperation

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i made $83,000 by looking at one number not the price not the volume the spread α = Δ / (V_h − μ) α is the fraction of traders in the market who already know the correct answer spread 0.05 → α = 5% safe to enter spread 0.15 → α = 15% be careful spread 0.25 → α = 20% one in five knows more than you before this i entered markets with wide spreads i thought illiquid, inefficient, that's where the money is turns out a wide spread means smart money is already there and i was paying their bill every single time once i started filtering markets by this formula stopped entering anything where α > 12% $83,000 in the next two months same polymarket same markets i just stopped being someone else's α i track these markets in real time through a bot it calculates α for every market automatically and only alerts when the entry is clean did you know the spread tells you exactly who else is in the game?

i made $83,000 by looking at one number not the price not the volume the spread α = Δ / (V_h − μ) α is the fraction of traders in the market who already know the correct answer spread 0.05 → α = 5% safe to enter spread 0.15 → α = 15% be careful spread 0.25 → α = 20% one in five knows more than you before this i entered markets with wide spreads i thought illiquid, inefficient, that's where the money is turns out a wide spread means smart money is already there and i was paying their bill every single time once i started filtering markets by this formula stopped entering anything where α > 12% $83,000 in the next two months same polymarket same markets i just stopped being someone else's α i track these markets in real time through a bot it calculates α for every market automatically and only alerts when the entry is clean did you know the spread tells you exactly who else is in the game?

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i cancelled $2,000/month in trading subscriptions replaced every single one with open-source repos here's the full stack: 1. TradingView Pro ($30/mo) → lightweight-charts 14K stars. by TradingView themselves. 45KB. free 2. Bloomberg Terminal ($2,000/mo) → fredapi + Claude every macro dataset the Fed publishes. free API 3. backtest platform ($100/mo) → prediction-market-backtesting NautilusTrader fork with Polymarket + Kalshi adapters 4. real-time dashboard → polyrec terminal UI: Chainlink oracle, Binance feed, orderbook depth 70+ indicators. auto CSV logging. strategy backtester 5. bot framework (7 strategies) → Polymarket-Trading-Bot 53K lines TypeScript. arbitrage, momentum, market making, AI forecast, whale copy-trade, convergence 6. strategy reverse engineering → polybot execution + market data infrastructure. paper trading Kafka, ClickHouse, Grafana. full analytics pipeline 7. paper trading for AI agents → polymarket-paper-trader real order books. exact fee model. slippage tracking your Claude agent gets $10K paper money and trades 8. token savings → rtk CLI proxy. cuts Claude Code tokens by 60-90% Rust. single binary. 10 AI tools supported 9. Claude Code itself ($200/mo) → goose 35K stars. by Block (Jack Dorsey). Rust works with any LLM. full agent loop. free 10. wallet tracking + copy trading → Kreo track top Polymarket wallets. auto copy trades the only tool on this list i actually pay for because it makes more than it costs total before: ~$2,600/month total now: $0 + Kreo bookmark this. you'll need it

self.dll

792,538 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

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10 repos blowing up on GitHub this week that replace $1,500/month in AI tools 1. andrej-karpathy-skills → replaces paid Claude Code courses one CLAUDE.md file from Karpathy's LLM coding observations 48,965 stars. 7,939 stars TODAY 2. claude-mem → replaces paid context/memory tools auto-captures everything Claude does across sessions compresses with AI and injects into future sessions 59,373 stars. 1,907 stars today 3. voicebox → replaces ElevenLabs ($22/mo) open-source voice synthesis studio 18,963 stars. 887 stars today 4. open-agents → replaces paid agent platforms ($200/mo) open-source template for building cloud agents. by Vercel 3,105 stars. 735 stars today 5. cognee → replaces paid knowledge bases ($50/mo) AI agent memory engine in 6 lines of code 15,733 stars 6. magika → replaces paid file detection tools AI file content type detection. by Google 14,603 stars 7. GenericAgent → replaces paid agent infra ($100/mo) self-evolving agent. grows skill tree from 3.3K-line seed 6x less token consumption than standard agents 2,661 stars. 883 stars today 8. omi → replaces Rewind AI ($25/mo) AI that sees your screen + listens to conversations tells you what to do next 8,952 stars. 488 stars today 9. evolver → replaces manual agent optimization self-evolution engine for AI agents genome evolution protocol 3,074 stars. 866 stars today 10. wallet tracking + copy trading → Kreo tracks top Polymarket wallets. auto copies trades the only tool on this list i actually pay for because it makes more than it costs → total before: ~$1,500/month in AI subscriptions total now: $0 + Kreo like + bookmark you'll need this

self.dll

356,867 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

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my 16 year old brother read this article on a tuesday night wednesday morning he opened checked the NOAA forecast for NYC: 43 degrees checked polymarket: "40-45 range" priced at $0.15 NOAA accuracy: 93%. market says 15%. somebody is very wrong he bought 200 shares at $0.15 next day temperature: 43 degrees shares resolved at $1.00 $0.15 to $1.00. 567% return. one trade. one weather forecast he didn't stop day 1: NYC weather. $170 profit day 3: London temperature. $94 day 5: Chicago high. $210 day 8: Seoul forecast. $147 day 12: back to NYC. $320 he built a routine: 7:00 AM check NOAA 7:02 AM compare with polymarket 7:03 AM buy if divergence > 30% go to school by week 6: starting capital: $400 - birthday money balance: $8,740 trades: 312 win rate: 87.4% avg profit per trade: $26.70 time per day: 3 minutes before school NOAA updates forecasts 9-15 minutes before polymarket adjusts $6 billion government supercomputer vs teenagers checking weather between tiktoks he has made more in 6 weeks than his teacher makes in 2 months the data is free. NOAA is a government website. public. updated hourly the formula is 5th grade math: EV = (0.93 x $1.00) - $0.15 = $0.78 78 cents per share on the best setups my brother doesn't know what LMSR is doesn't know what softmax is doesn't know what a neural network is he knows one thing: NOAA is right 93% of the time and polymarket hasn't figured that out yet i spent 3 months writing 4,000 lines of Rust he checks for 3 minutes and goes to school 16 years old. $8,740. 3 minutes a day. one government website what free public data source are you not checking?

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400,329 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

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