Shahryar Pasandideh
@shahpas • 6,230 subscribers
Military and technology analyst. Fellow @BGCCIH. PhD from @GWtweets. Previously @BelferCenter, @UofT. Press inquiries: send a DM and include your email
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The footage Russia released in December 2024 of a 3M22 Zircon launch in the Eastern Mediterranean should have made clear that we were not dealing with an air-breathing design. So much of the hype- and ignorance-fuelled commentary about "hypersonics" in the second half of the 2010s misunderstood and mischaracterized what was going on, especially in Russia, which was taking some "shortcuts." Note that this did not prevent American officials from warning that "the U.S. is behind its adversaries in hypersonics." This was and remains true with respect to China in terms of deployed "hypersonics," but not in a meaningful sense with respect to Russia, which has yet to unveil a scramjet-powered "hypersonic" cruise missile or a conventionally-armed unpowered boost-glide vehicle (BGV, also known as a hypersonic glide vehic;e/HGV). More generally, there is an important and tiring dynamic by which Ukraine keeps feeding us very limited disclosures in regular "droplet-sized" doses. I imagine the PR people are running the show and want a constant stream of headlines to generate headlines, but this really amounts to a terrible way to conduct analysis and, I think, results in distorted public perceptions.
Shahryar Pasandideh75,219 次观看 • 22 天前
🇨🇳🇮🇷🇴🇲🇹🇼 This may be the first documented attack against the type of large gantry crane used to load and unload shipping containers from container ships. I draw attention to this development with reference to China and Taiwan because some self-described experts will run Monte Carlo simulations on the potential effectiveness of Chinese ballistic missile attacks against Taiwan's port cranes instead of putting a "problem-solving hat" on to identify more practical ways of taking port cranes out of operation in the manner that Iran appears to have done.
Shahryar Pasandideh124,014 次观看 • 5 个月前
🇮🇷🇮🇶🇭🇺🇺🇸 This video shows Fath-360 (i.e., BM-120) short-range ballistic missile launches against reported targets in the Erbil area. The audio is very interesting, given how someone asks whether they are to launch one missile at a time or a full salvo of four (the launcher in question, carrying four such missiles, is the specimen in image 4). Note that this is likely an IRGC Ground Force unit.
Shahryar Pasandideh34,586 次观看 • 6 个月前
A new video of IRGC strike drone and ~cruise missile launches. Included are the Hadid-110 associated with the IRGC Ground Force (not the IRGC Aerospace Force), Shahed-136, and, notably, some of the first documentation of Shahed-107 use in this war. Note large-scale Hadid launches
Shahryar Pasandideh24,282 次观看 • 6 个月前
🇮🇷🇮🇱🇱🇧🇺🇸 I can't speak to the veracity or timing of this video, but scenes like this—the mass launch of apparent Tamir/Iron Dome interceptors against rockets reportedly launched from Lebanon—are what Iran and Hizballah likely want to see and induce. Tamir stocks are not infinite, and Iran benefits from having Iron Dome batteries "pinned" in northern Israel, with the ELM-2084 radars facing north—not ~northeast. When tied up intercepting inexpensive and plentiful unguided artillery rockets launched from Lebanon—and Hizballah's strike drones—Iron Dome batteries cannot be positioned to undertake low-probability, short-range, and rather desperate/last-ditch interception attempts against long-range Iranian ballistic missiles in other parts of Israel.
Shahryar Pasandideh21,340 次观看 • 5 个月前
🇮🇷 This video offers what may be the first glimpse into Qaem-118 launch operations. The Qaem-118 (image 1) is a turbojet-powered surface-to-air missile that, to put it mildly, heavily emulates the American Coyote Block 2 (image 2). This is one of several Iranian anti-aircraft interceptors optimized for use against uncrewed aircraft of various types, including higher-flying designs such as the American MQ-9 Reaper. The Qaem-118 was, IIRC, first unveiled in February 2025 at the same exhibition covered in the quoted post. 1/
Shahryar Pasandideh21,337 次观看 • 6 个月前
🇮🇷🇰🇼🇺🇸 A diverse array of Iranian strike munitions can be seen in this video, which reportedly shows IRGC forces attacking American forces in Kuwait. Included: - Paveh family cruise missiles - A (to my knowledge) previously unseen Iranian strike drone in a tractor configuration with a cruciform/X-tail. The IRGC did, however, present a tractor configuration strike drone with a V-tail last year. TBD. - Guided heavy artillery rockets/~short-range ballistic missiles - Arash family strike drones, which have notably been associated with the Artesh, not the IRGC, thus far. TBD.
Shahryar Pasandideh13,827 次观看 • 6 个月前
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