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Simon Bazelon

@simon_bazelon • 6,339 subscribers

Lead author, DECIDING TO WIN (link below). Prev: Future Forward, Blue Rose Research, Data for Progress.

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I think the anti-intellectual spirit here is absolutely correct. You should ignore all of the graphs in Deciding to Win. They are useless and unnecessary. Instead, just watch the ads run by candidates who actually win elections. Luckily, they show the exact same thing!

I think the anti-intellectual spirit here is absolutely correct. You should ignore all of the graphs in Deciding to Win. They are useless and unnecessary. Instead, just watch the ads run by candidates who actually win elections. Luckily, they show the exact same thing!

69,550 views

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I think a point of confusion for a lot of folks is that no one remembers what the "moderate" Democrats of 10-15 years ago were actually like. They were way more conservative than Jared Golden and MGP! Here's an ad from John Barrow, who ran 10% ahead of Obama in GA-12 in 2012. You might not like it, but *this* is what trying as hard as you can to win a Red district actually looks like. His old seat is now represented by Rick Allen, who won by 20% in 2024, and who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

I think a point of confusion for a lot of folks is that no one remembers what the "moderate" Democrats of 10-15 years ago were actually like. They were way more conservative than Jared Golden and MGP! Here's an ad from John Barrow, who ran 10% ahead of Obama in GA-12 in 2012. You might not like it, but this is what trying as hard as you can to win a Red district actually looks like. His old seat is now represented by Rick Allen, who won by 20% in 2024, and who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

1,122,971 views • 8 months ago

TN-07 was R+21 in 2024. The biggest special election flip by Democrats in the last 20 years was in an R+23 seat in rural Mississippi in the spring of 2008. Here's an ad from that race by Travis Childers, the Democrat who flipped the seat. Different tone from Aftyn Behn!

TN-07 was R+21 in 2024. The biggest special election flip by Democrats in the last 20 years was in an R+23 seat in rural Mississippi in the spring of 2008. Here's an ad from that race by Travis Childers, the Democrat who flipped the seat. Different tone from Aftyn Behn!

519,742 views • 7 months ago

Here's Heidi Heitkamp in 2012 on how she "supports a balanced budget amendment and stood up to President Obama on the Keystone pipeline and on cap and trade."

Here's Heidi Heitkamp in 2012 on how she "supports a balanced budget amendment and stood up to President Obama on the Keystone pipeline and on cap and trade."

165,331 views • 8 months ago

Had a great time talking to Jon Favreau about Deciding to Win. Full conversation below!

Had a great time talking to Jon Favreau about Deciding to Win. Full conversation below!

117,138 views • 7 months ago

Can't help but be reminded of my all time favorite political ad :)

Can't help but be reminded of my all time favorite political ad :)

76,979 views • 8 months ago

I think the anti-intellectual spirit here is absolutely correct. You should ignore all of the graphs in Deciding to Win. They are useless and unnecessary. Instead, just watch the ads run by candidates who actually win elections. Luckily, they show the exact same thing!

I think the anti-intellectual spirit here is absolutely correct. You should ignore all of the graphs in Deciding to Win. They are useless and unnecessary. Instead, just watch the ads run by candidates who actually win elections. Luckily, they show the exact same thing!

69,550 views • 8 months ago

You can read DECIDING TO WIN at We've surveyed 500,000+ people since the 2024 election, so the report covers a lot of ground. But it's about two main ideas: Prioritizing and Positioning. (2/14)

You can read DECIDING TO WIN at We've surveyed 500,000+ people since the 2024 election, so the report covers a lot of ground. But it's about two main ideas: Prioritizing and Positioning. (2/14)

69,077 views • 8 months ago

Here's Robert Byrd (D-WV Sen, 1959-2010) in a 2006 ad focused on how he's supporting a bill to allow for more prayer in schools.

Here's Robert Byrd (D-WV Sen, 1959-2010) in a 2006 ad focused on how he's supporting a bill to allow for more prayer in schools.

54,427 views • 8 months ago

Here's a 1996 ad from Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota), titled "Locate Parents That Abandon Families," in which he says: "If you have children, you have to support them. And if you walk away, we'll find you. Because taxpayers shouldn't have to pick up the tab." The past is a foreign country!

Here's a 1996 ad from Tim Johnson (D-South Dakota), titled "Locate Parents That Abandon Families," in which he says: "If you have children, you have to support them. And if you walk away, we'll find you. Because taxpayers shouldn't have to pick up the tab." The past is a foreign country!

48,131 views • 8 months ago

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