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War Scholar | Chair of War Studies Madison Policy Forum | Executive Director @urbanwarfareins | UWP podcast | Thoughts/Posts my own RT/Quote/Like ≠ Official Gov

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“They are killing enormous numbers of civilians…they are targeting one, two, three enemy combatants and in the process killing huge numbers of civilians. Piers Morgan Piers a few minutes later – “If you can’t say exactly how many civilians have been killed in Gaza, what you say about numbers is bull.” Dear Piers Morgan I tried to explain to you where numbers in the Gaza war (or any war) are going to come from "simply.” But let me type it out so you have a record of it instead of the interruptions and the tactic of just asking the same question over and over while I explain how the numbers work. The same numbers by the way that you used minutes before to criticize Israel and constantly repeat or have guests on that repeat, or more often state not even Hamas numbers but false numbers about xx civilians, xx women, xx children, xx percentages that go beyond Hamas's actual list of casualties. First, let me correct you again (like I did to start the segment) by providing you my actual quotes: 1 - "Israel and the IDF have implemented more measures (sometimes quoted as precautions) to prevent civilian harm in urban warfare than any military in history," That is testable against urban warfare history of any similar situation (mostly attack of defended urban terrain). Israel civilian harm mitigation measure have included advance notification (flyers, phone calls, text messages, voicemails, drones with speakers, tv, radio, social media), safe corridors to include improving roads used for safe corridors in the middle of the war, roof knocking (notifying all residents of a building in advance for evacuations and then using non-penetrating low-yield munitions on top of the building before then waiting to strike), over daily multi-hour pauses in fighting (over 400 days of the 800 days of fighting) to allow civilian evacuations and aid movement, establishing a one-star commanded civilian harm mitigation cell that created a real time civilian presence (using cell phone presence, drones, satellite images, etc.) software reflected on all combat operating systems, handing out their own military maps to the entire population (to include the enemy) and then communicating the location of IDF operations, areas to avoid or further evacuate, using major call outs of buildings and neighborhoods, restrictive rules of engagement based on likely civilian presence, rigorous fires processes and legal reviews that often ended in calling mission off out of civilian harm estimates. Many of these measures have never been attempted, by any military. 2 - "Israel has a lower civilian to combatant ratio than any similar context (war or battle) in the history of urban warfare.” After acknowledging the lack of comparative cases (size of enemy forces (which I asked you about, you don't know), tunnels, density, strategy, tactics, prevention of civilian evacuations) but still doing the simple analysis, in order to provide the evidence for this statement I use the same numbers you and your frequent guests push to condemn Israel. But here: Q: How do you estimate the number of civilians deaths? A: Take the number the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry reports (despite that it includes any death in Gaza for any reason or cause (Israel/Hamas/Other terrorists) and has been well documented with inaccuracies (even having to be updated by Hamas of natural deaths, incomplete entries, false entries) and subtract the Israel stated combatant deaths. The Hamas Gaza Health Ministry claims roughly 72,000 deaths in Gaza. The IDF says it has killed about 25,000-26,000 combatants, a number also reported by President Trump in October 2025. If you subtract 25,000 from 72,000, even using Hamas’s number at face value, you get roughly 47,000 non-combatant deaths, or a bit less than a 2:1 ratio. If you were modest to adjust for natural deaths and Hamas-caused deaths, is likely closer to 35,000–40,000 non-combatant deaths versus 25,000 combatants killed, which puts the ratio closer to 1.5:1. If you compare 2:1 or 1.5:1 to any numbers we have (in many cases we don’t have) for wars, urban centric wars, contested urban battles they will be some of the lowest ratios (in some cases lowest by far) ever seen despite none of those wars or battles had the context of Gaza. For example: World War II – 70 million civilians, 20 million combatants, 3.5:1 Korean War – 2.5 million civilians, 90,000 combatants, 27:1 Iraq War – 280-300,000 civilians, 150-200,000 combatants, 1.4:1 to 2:1 But wait, the Gaza numbers are usually aggregated numbers for the entire war, any death ever reported in Gaza. But if you disaggregate the numbers to specific battles like Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gaza City 2025 for comparison you get different numbers. Based on modest numbers from the Battle of Rafah, the civilian to combatant ratio would be more like 1:100 due to multiple operational variables like the success of civilian evacuations. Major urban battles (modest comparison of battles with any like variables). Mosul – 10,000 civilians. Combatant unknown but total estimate in battle 5,000 – 2:1 Manila – 100,000 civilians. Combatants 17,000 – 6:1 Seoul – Unknown/no record of civilian but very likely high ratio based on histories Mariupol – Unknown/mass graves, estimate 20-22,000 civilians, 3-8,000 combatants - 2.5:1 to 7.3:1 I actually use this discussion about numbers or quote about ratio sparingly despite how many times it has been attribute to me because I know the complexity of casualty counting especially in urban centric wars with combatants that violate the law of war and do not distinguish themselves (uniforms/marking) making determining a body found (if there is a body) or a name reported (such as methods in Gaza) and then classifying that person as was participating in the hostilities (combatant) or not (noncombatant) is beyond just difficult and should always be viewed as questionable. In Mosul, a year after the battle there was not only no agreed upon casualty number, but the Mayor of the city also said there were 40,000 civilian deaths. These numbers are always messy, political, susceptible to manipulation by the different organizations involved. My point has always been that numbers of casualty reporting in Gaza doesn’t paint the story people routinely push. Actually, the opposite. Urban warfare is inherently and historically costly against civilians and the infrastructure. All wars involve noncombatant death. The moral, legal requirement is to do proportionality assessments and take feasible steps to prevent excessive civilian harm. So, using your logic Piers, if you can’t state how many combatants were killed (by Israel, Hamas, terrorist rockets, other terrorists in power struggles) … you can’t say (or allow your guests to say) Israel has killed a “large number of civilians” or “killed a disproportionate number of civilians” like you did in this very interveiw. You can't spend years saying Israel is killing enormous numbers of civilians and then tell me nobody can estimate civilian deaths so ratios aren't valid. Those two positions can't both be true. If casualty estimates are reliable enough to accuse Israel, then they're also reliable enough to examine civilian-to-combatant ratios. If they aren't, then they shouldn't be used selectively only when they support one conclusion.

“They are killing enormous numbers of civilians…they are targeting one, two, three enemy combatants and in the process killing huge numbers of civilians. Piers Morgan Piers a few minutes later – “If you can’t say exactly how many civilians have been killed in Gaza, what you say about numbers is bull.” Dear Piers Morgan I tried to explain to you where numbers in the Gaza war (or any war) are going to come from "simply.” But let me type it out so you have a record of it instead of the interruptions and the tactic of just asking the same question over and over while I explain how the numbers work. The same numbers by the way that you used minutes before to criticize Israel and constantly repeat or have guests on that repeat, or more often state not even Hamas numbers but false numbers about xx civilians, xx women, xx children, xx percentages that go beyond Hamas's actual list of casualties. First, let me correct you again (like I did to start the segment) by providing you my actual quotes: 1 - "Israel and the IDF have implemented more measures (sometimes quoted as precautions) to prevent civilian harm in urban warfare than any military in history," That is testable against urban warfare history of any similar situation (mostly attack of defended urban terrain). Israel civilian harm mitigation measure have included advance notification (flyers, phone calls, text messages, voicemails, drones with speakers, tv, radio, social media), safe corridors to include improving roads used for safe corridors in the middle of the war, roof knocking (notifying all residents of a building in advance for evacuations and then using non-penetrating low-yield munitions on top of the building before then waiting to strike), over daily multi-hour pauses in fighting (over 400 days of the 800 days of fighting) to allow civilian evacuations and aid movement, establishing a one-star commanded civilian harm mitigation cell that created a real time civilian presence (using cell phone presence, drones, satellite images, etc.) software reflected on all combat operating systems, handing out their own military maps to the entire population (to include the enemy) and then communicating the location of IDF operations, areas to avoid or further evacuate, using major call outs of buildings and neighborhoods, restrictive rules of engagement based on likely civilian presence, rigorous fires processes and legal reviews that often ended in calling mission off out of civilian harm estimates. Many of these measures have never been attempted, by any military. 2 - "Israel has a lower civilian to combatant ratio than any similar context (war or battle) in the history of urban warfare.” After acknowledging the lack of comparative cases (size of enemy forces (which I asked you about, you don't know), tunnels, density, strategy, tactics, prevention of civilian evacuations) but still doing the simple analysis, in order to provide the evidence for this statement I use the same numbers you and your frequent guests push to condemn Israel. But here: Q: How do you estimate the number of civilians deaths? A: Take the number the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry reports (despite that it includes any death in Gaza for any reason or cause (Israel/Hamas/Other terrorists) and has been well documented with inaccuracies (even having to be updated by Hamas of natural deaths, incomplete entries, false entries) and subtract the Israel stated combatant deaths. The Hamas Gaza Health Ministry claims roughly 72,000 deaths in Gaza. The IDF says it has killed about 25,000-26,000 combatants, a number also reported by President Trump in October 2025. If you subtract 25,000 from 72,000, even using Hamas’s number at face value, you get roughly 47,000 non-combatant deaths, or a bit less than a 2:1 ratio. If you were modest to adjust for natural deaths and Hamas-caused deaths, is likely closer to 35,000–40,000 non-combatant deaths versus 25,000 combatants killed, which puts the ratio closer to 1.5:1. If you compare 2:1 or 1.5:1 to any numbers we have (in many cases we don’t have) for wars, urban centric wars, contested urban battles they will be some of the lowest ratios (in some cases lowest by far) ever seen despite none of those wars or battles had the context of Gaza. For example: World War II – 70 million civilians, 20 million combatants, 3.5:1 Korean War – 2.5 million civilians, 90,000 combatants, 27:1 Iraq War – 280-300,000 civilians, 150-200,000 combatants, 1.4:1 to 2:1 But wait, the Gaza numbers are usually aggregated numbers for the entire war, any death ever reported in Gaza. But if you disaggregate the numbers to specific battles like Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gaza City 2025 for comparison you get different numbers. Based on modest numbers from the Battle of Rafah, the civilian to combatant ratio would be more like 1:100 due to multiple operational variables like the success of civilian evacuations. Major urban battles (modest comparison of battles with any like variables). Mosul – 10,000 civilians. Combatant unknown but total estimate in battle 5,000 – 2:1 Manila – 100,000 civilians. Combatants 17,000 – 6:1 Seoul – Unknown/no record of civilian but very likely high ratio based on histories Mariupol – Unknown/mass graves, estimate 20-22,000 civilians, 3-8,000 combatants - 2.5:1 to 7.3:1 I actually use this discussion about numbers or quote about ratio sparingly despite how many times it has been attribute to me because I know the complexity of casualty counting especially in urban centric wars with combatants that violate the law of war and do not distinguish themselves (uniforms/marking) making determining a body found (if there is a body) or a name reported (such as methods in Gaza) and then classifying that person as was participating in the hostilities (combatant) or not (noncombatant) is beyond just difficult and should always be viewed as questionable. In Mosul, a year after the battle there was not only no agreed upon casualty number, but the Mayor of the city also said there were 40,000 civilian deaths. These numbers are always messy, political, susceptible to manipulation by the different organizations involved. My point has always been that numbers of casualty reporting in Gaza doesn’t paint the story people routinely push. Actually, the opposite. Urban warfare is inherently and historically costly against civilians and the infrastructure. All wars involve noncombatant death. The moral, legal requirement is to do proportionality assessments and take feasible steps to prevent excessive civilian harm. So, using your logic Piers, if you can’t state how many combatants were killed (by Israel, Hamas, terrorist rockets, other terrorists in power struggles) … you can’t say (or allow your guests to say) Israel has killed a “large number of civilians” or “killed a disproportionate number of civilians” like you did in this very interveiw. You can't spend years saying Israel is killing enormous numbers of civilians and then tell me nobody can estimate civilian deaths so ratios aren't valid. Those two positions can't both be true. If casualty estimates are reliable enough to accuse Israel, then they're also reliable enough to examine civilian-to-combatant ratios. If they aren't, then they shouldn't be used selectively only when they support one conclusion.

641,391 次观看 • 21 天前

Fact: “The ratio of civilian to fighters killed in the Gaza War is better than most other comparable situations.” Gad Saad That precision of the statement is key. Civilian (noncombatant) fighter (combatant participating in the hostilities). Actually one of the lowest of urban warfare history against anything comparable. Lower than any comparable battle/war (very few even close to the situation but those like battles of Manila, Seoul, Mosul or Iraq/Korean War). Yes 1:1. Yes, Hamas (and other fighters participating in the war) had over 35,000 militants. Joe Rogan Joe Roganhq I’m more than happy to discuss where the numbers come from, any comparable situation, why all the destruction in Gaza, what else could have been done, no genocide, and more based on a decade of research and now 7 (about to be 8) trips into Gaza to directly observe the IDF during their operations against Hamas.

Fact: “The ratio of civilian to fighters killed in the Gaza War is better than most other comparable situations.” Gad Saad That precision of the statement is key. Civilian (noncombatant) fighter (combatant participating in the hostilities). Actually one of the lowest of urban warfare history against anything comparable. Lower than any comparable battle/war (very few even close to the situation but those like battles of Manila, Seoul, Mosul or Iraq/Korean War). Yes 1:1. Yes, Hamas (and other fighters participating in the war) had over 35,000 militants. Joe Rogan Joe Roganhq I’m more than happy to discuss where the numbers come from, any comparable situation, why all the destruction in Gaza, what else could have been done, no genocide, and more based on a decade of research and now 7 (about to be 8) trips into Gaza to directly observe the IDF during their operations against Hamas.

302,651 次观看 • 2 个月前

100% there is no genocide in Gaza. No eradication project. People confused about what the word means is culturally appalling and dangerous for the future of western society. The confusion has indeed been engineered by people know what they are doing. No genocide does not mean simply too much death and destruction in war. It is about intent and action to destroy a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group, in whole or in part. Sam Harris Making Sense Podcast is spot on.

100% there is no genocide in Gaza. No eradication project. People confused about what the word means is culturally appalling and dangerous for the future of western society. The confusion has indeed been engineered by people know what they are doing. No genocide does not mean simply too much death and destruction in war. It is about intent and action to destroy a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group, in whole or in part. Sam Harris Making Sense Podcast is spot on.

263,292 次观看 • 1 个月前

“I am changed forever more [after watching the Oct 7th video], there is your context madam presidents…this is not about a territorial dispute, it’s not about oppressors and the oppressed, it’s not about religion or ideology. Any agenda that was on the table before October 6 is forever gone, conversation is over. How dare you…what is wrong with you people, you know better…who do you answer to?...If Hamas behavior does not cross the line, then you don’t have one…light always prevails over darkness & good over evil.” powerful words from Dr. Phil

“I am changed forever more [after watching the Oct 7th video], there is your context madam presidents…this is not about a territorial dispute, it’s not about oppressors and the oppressed, it’s not about religion or ideology. Any agenda that was on the table before October 6 is forever gone, conversation is over. How dare you…what is wrong with you people, you know better…who do you answer to?...If Hamas behavior does not cross the line, then you don’t have one…light always prevails over darkness & good over evil.” powerful words from Dr. Phil

2,356,906 次观看 • 2 年前

"Because we didn't want to, quote "provoke Vladimir Putin," By showing weakness we provoked Vladimir Putin...I was deeply disappointed in the United States of America when they (Ukraine) begged us for defensive weapons." I miss John McCain. He screamed to #ArmUkraineNow

"Because we didn't want to, quote "provoke Vladimir Putin," By showing weakness we provoked Vladimir Putin...I was deeply disappointed in the United States of America when they (Ukraine) begged us for defensive weapons." I miss John McCain. He screamed to #ArmUkraineNow

1,370,442 次观看 • 3 年前

"Historic..Imagine killing Hitler, his successor, every one of his Field Marshals before the first boots touch the beaches of Normandy. That's the neurological strike that we saw in the first 24 hours." my talk with Jesse Watters on Fox News tonight.

"Historic..Imagine killing Hitler, his successor, every one of his Field Marshals before the first boots touch the beaches of Normandy. That's the neurological strike that we saw in the first 24 hours." my talk with Jesse Watters on Fox News tonight.

176,913 次观看 • 4 个月前

"History only remembers the victors, only the strong and the brave." President Zelensky in Bakhmut. No script, no teleprompter, only pure leadership! Historic leadership!

"History only remembers the victors, only the strong and the brave." President Zelensky in Bakhmut. No script, no teleprompter, only pure leadership! Historic leadership!

1,293,107 次观看 • 3 年前

“people have lost their minds on who are terrorists, who are actually defending their civilians, who are trying to get their civilians killed, people trying to rewrite borders, call people resistance fighters.” “I think the whole narrative of now we have a ‘two front war,’ ‘Israel is now doing this.’ The headline should be Israel is defending itself in a 7 front war, that there has been 8,000 Hezbollah rockets attacking Israel for a year…80 to 100,000 Israelis homeless…it won’t be another Gaza, the objective are completely different…any other country in this situation these wouldn’t be the questions we would be asking.”

“people have lost their minds on who are terrorists, who are actually defending their civilians, who are trying to get their civilians killed, people trying to rewrite borders, call people resistance fighters.” “I think the whole narrative of now we have a ‘two front war,’ ‘Israel is now doing this.’ The headline should be Israel is defending itself in a 7 front war, that there has been 8,000 Hezbollah rockets attacking Israel for a year…80 to 100,000 Israelis homeless…it won’t be another Gaza, the objective are completely different…any other country in this situation these wouldn’t be the questions we would be asking.”

625,197 次观看 • 1 年前

“John Spencer is head of urban warfare studies at West Point. He’s studied every major urban conflict...in history. Israel, he said, has implemented more precautions to prevent civilian harm than any military in history and beyond what international law requires.” Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו

“John Spencer is head of urban warfare studies at West Point. He’s studied every major urban conflict...in history. Israel, he said, has implemented more precautions to prevent civilian harm than any military in history and beyond what international law requires.” Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו

653,141 次观看 • 2 年前

"But the price of not supporting them [Ukraine] will be much higher...you should care about your own security interest...step up and provide support, full stop." Europe must do more! #ArmUkraineNow #RussiaIsCollapsing #russiaisateroriststate #russia #ukraine #PutinsWar

"But the price of not supporting them [Ukraine] will be much higher...you should care about your own security interest...step up and provide support, full stop." Europe must do more! #ArmUkraineNow #RussiaIsCollapsing #russiaisateroriststate #russia #ukraine #PutinsWar

898,153 次观看 • 3 年前

"China is the biggest loser in all of this [U.S./Israel-Iran War]...the reason we are having this conversation. Iran's nuclear progress like centrifuge manufacturing - China...ballistic missiles production - China." my talk tonight with Polo Sandoval CNN

"China is the biggest loser in all of this [U.S./Israel-Iran War]...the reason we are having this conversation. Iran's nuclear progress like centrifuge manufacturing - China...ballistic missiles production - China." my talk tonight with Polo Sandoval CNN

87,257 次观看 • 4 个月前

Get your facts straight. A quick video on Israel’s hostage rescue operation and reports of Palestinian civilian casualties.

Get your facts straight. A quick video on Israel’s hostage rescue operation and reports of Palestinian civilian casualties.

294,378 次观看 • 2 年前

"It is preemptive because there is intelligence." I was on with my friend Christopher C. Cuomo tonight at the beginning of the launch of Israel's preemptive strike against Iran. NewsNation

"It is preemptive because there is intelligence." I was on with my friend Christopher C. Cuomo tonight at the beginning of the launch of Israel's preemptive strike against Iran. NewsNation

163,170 次观看 • 1 年前

"I am encouraged that this plan, for the first time, has a clause that if Hamas does not accept, it immediately moves forward...People have forgotten what war looks like...this is what peace looks like...Israel is continuing operation, closing with and destorying terrorists..." My talk w/ Christopher C. Cuomo NewsNation

"I am encouraged that this plan, for the first time, has a clause that if Hamas does not accept, it immediately moves forward...People have forgotten what war looks like...this is what peace looks like...Israel is continuing operation, closing with and destorying terrorists..." My talk w/ Christopher C. Cuomo NewsNation

94,209 次观看 • 9 个月前

Yes, it is right to be cautiously optimistic that Hamas says they will release all hostages for what the Trump plan says. Yes, Hamas is irreconcilable. But the 19 other parts to the Trump plan are the recipe for peace. We'll see. NewsNation Christopher C. Cuomo with Moshe Emilio Lavi

Yes, it is right to be cautiously optimistic that Hamas says they will release all hostages for what the Trump plan says. Yes, Hamas is irreconcilable. But the 19 other parts to the Trump plan are the recipe for peace. We'll see. NewsNation Christopher C. Cuomo with Moshe Emilio Lavi

85,055 次观看 • 9 个月前

“We are attacking every center of gravity right now…it is a system that’s been attacked, every capability that Iran has has been dismantled not just for today, but for tomorrow…attacking not only their capability but their will.”My talk tonight with Jesse Watters Fox News

“We are attacking every center of gravity right now…it is a system that’s been attacked, every capability that Iran has has been dismantled not just for today, but for tomorrow…attacking not only their capability but their will.”My talk tonight with Jesse Watters Fox News

37,374 次观看 • 3 个月前

"The role of the U.S. military is to give the President options...strategy isn't a plan that you start on Day 1 and check off a list, it evolves in the uncertainty of what the enemy is doing..." Discussing U.S.-Israel war in Iran on CNN with Bianna Golodryga

"The role of the U.S. military is to give the President options...strategy isn't a plan that you start on Day 1 and check off a list, it evolves in the uncertainty of what the enemy is doing..." Discussing U.S.-Israel war in Iran on CNN with Bianna Golodryga

38,881 次观看 • 3 个月前

“Not only is the devil in the details, this is a deal with the devil, but Israel is willing to do that… Hamas took a 9 month old baby and Israel is willing to exchange hundreds of convicted terrorists who are serving life sentence for the body, hopefully a living, of a baby…we are not talking about what is Hamas saying about the deal, the billionaire negotiator, the head of Hamas’s political wing in Qatar did a press conference after the deal…and said not only do we celebrate October 7th, we’re going to do it again…the biggest obstacle to peace is Hamas…Israelis, the entire Biden administration, the incoming Trump administration, says Hamas will have no role in Gaza after the peace deal.” my comments this morning MSNBC

“Not only is the devil in the details, this is a deal with the devil, but Israel is willing to do that… Hamas took a 9 month old baby and Israel is willing to exchange hundreds of convicted terrorists who are serving life sentence for the body, hopefully a living, of a baby…we are not talking about what is Hamas saying about the deal, the billionaire negotiator, the head of Hamas’s political wing in Qatar did a press conference after the deal…and said not only do we celebrate October 7th, we’re going to do it again…the biggest obstacle to peace is Hamas…Israelis, the entire Biden administration, the incoming Trump administration, says Hamas will have no role in Gaza after the peace deal.” my comments this morning MSNBC

131,920 次观看 • 1 年前