Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford • 128,583 subscribers
Political Editor, The Times
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This week's episode of our podcast The State of It: * David Miliband is coming back, possibly as foreign secretary, but is there really room for two Milibands in great offices of state? As one Cabinet minister put it to my colleague Oliver Wright “You cannot have more Milibands than women in the top jobs. That kind of thing matters." * Relations between the two brothers have improved markedly since Ed killed David's hopes of being Labour leader. Patrick Maguire reveals that it was Ed who was one of the first people to suggest David for a Cabinet role to Burnham, saying that he had much to offer * Allies of David say he wants to comeback to frontline politics and would 'definitely' be interested in returning as foreign secretary. There is political logic to it too - Burnham wants to be a domestic-focused prime minister, meaning he needs a heavyweight foreign secretary * One source who knows both brothers said we could end up with the ultimate irony - David thwarting Ed in his ambition to become the chancellor if Burnham chooses him as foreign secretary' * “Ed would welcome him back — provided it doesn’t impact on what Ed wants to do,” they said. “If it did then that would be a different matter altogether. You can see a world where Burnham has to choose between Ed and David and he chooses David and suddenly he’s not a fan of it any more.” * One former cabinet minister who served alongside both men in cabinet said: “It would be nice to see David back in cabinet, but can you really have both Milibands? Neither are loved by the public and both are pretty high-handed towards colleagues. It seems odd.”
Steven Swinford89,368 просмотров • 13 дней назад
The latest episode of The State of It with Patrick Maguire * Andy Burnham said to have been taken aback by overt pitches from ministers for jobs. People are being very direct. He is giving nothing away - this is his point of maximum power and he knows it * Burnham remains genuinely undecided about what he will do. It's fuelling paranoia. Ed Miliband allies started worrying that Lou Haigh could become his chancellor. Miliband himself does not know his fate * Patrick Maguire on 'Burnham magnanimity syndrome' - at the moment everyone is rowing in behind him. But there are only so many jobs to go round. There will be lots of losers. Keeping this coalition of MPs happy is going to be hugely challenging * 'One day soon this period of maximum leverage and maximum sycophancy will be over and there will be losers from the choices that Burnham makes' * There are concerns about the old boys network from the Brown era dominating once again. Burnham, Purnell, Miliband, Miliband, Balls... Women's PLP watching closely. Brown appointed what was then the youngest cabinet in history, and it means many of them have unfinished business * Allies of Burnham point to the fact he has an almost entirely female team around him - Lou Haigh, Anneliese Midgley, his putative No 10 operation. They say this will be a balanced cabinet on every level * The briefings against David Miliband as foreign secretary have begun - people pointing to strong endorsement of international aid at a time it is being cut to fund defence. Argue it makes him less suited for the role
Steven Swinford56,183 просмотров • 11 дней назад
A deeply personal exchange between Victoria Atkins, the shadow environment secretary, and Robert Jenrick, Reform's economic spokesman Atkins once backed Jenrick for the leadership She reveals that they have not spoken since his defection to Reform and says his departure is a 'great personal loss for me as well as a professional one' She argues that Jenrick's behaviour suggests he can't be trusted Jenrick says that he won't personalise things. He says that it is the Consevative Party cannot be trusted because 'it did not do what it said it was going to do' in office on migration
Steven Swinford222,893 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
The police response to Morgan McSweeney having his phone stolen in October last year seems bizarre As phones go his was about as sensitive as it gets. The number of every cabinet minister and the prime minister. Messages with all of them. Emails, text messages. You name it If you were a hostile state looking for an insight into what was going on in government at that time/ kompromat it's probably about as good as it gets And yet they treated him in the same way as tens of thousands of people are treated every year when their phones are stolen They gave him a crime reference number. Officers didn't speak to him. They didn't conduct an investigation. They just closed the case Now that's not to say they could have tracked down the thief - he was on an e-bike and wearing a balaclava for one. It's just the lack of any further investigation seems odd, although I'm sure it will be familiar to many of the 70,000+ people who reported their mobiles stolen last year More on our podcast The State of It
Steven Swinford238,143 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
This week’s episode of our podcast The State of It: * Nigel Farage’s 8am broadcast on Henry Novak - warning of 2 tier culture - aimed to dominate the agenda. ‘Makerfield will buy into what Nigel Farage has said,’ is how one ally put it. * Reform thinks it can squeeze Restore vote in Makerfield. The big figure both Labour and Reform are focusing efforts on is 17% - the proportion of undecided voters * Lara Spirit on the striking gender divide in Makerfield. Polling suggests Burnham has a 21 point lead among women, Kenton has a 15 point lead among men * Burnham is trying to reach as many undecided voters as possible. While not addressing Farage directly he is trying to counter his criticisms on grooming gangs, clean air zones. He’s fighting the issues rather than the man * Team Burnham don’t want Cabinet visit. Ministers are going up to Makerfield in secret without special advisers. They don’t want photos. They don’t want the association. Ministers say it is surreal * Big announcements on a potential Burnham premiership are coming from his spokespeople rather than Burnham directly. No change to fiscal rules, no early election. * Burnham’s operation making key decisions in a social club on a suburban backstreet in Wigan. A tiny group of people determining Burnham’s campaign and Labour’s future * Patrick Maguire on what Lord Mandelson described as ‘Patrick Maguire syndrome’: “If saying the prime minister doesn’t stand for anything and doesn’t have a political project is a pathology the I accept the diagnosis and have manfully chosen to live without treatment and battle this my own way.”
Steven Swinford29,964 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
EXCLUSIVE: Rachel Reeves has proposed increasing defence spending by less than £10 billion over the next four years despite stark warnings that Britain’s “national security and safety is in peril” The chancellor has outlined plans with the prime minister for a “limited” increase amid concern about the impact of the Iran war on the public finances The armed forces have warned that they are facing a funding gap of around £28 billion over the next four years on their existing plans However a government source said that Reeves has proposed an increase in funding of less than £10 billion during her discussions with Sir Keir Starmer, fearing a bigger increase would be unaffordable The Iran war has pushed up the cost of government borrowing and households face higher energy bills, petrol costs and prices in shops The chancellor is drawing up plans for a targeted energy bill bailout for low-income households this winter and is also expected to shelve plans to begin increasing fuel duty by 5p a litre from September at a cost of about £2.6 billion. Both measures will add to pressure on the public finances The State of It political podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times has been told that Reeves is unwilling to break her fiscal rules or increase taxes to boost defence spending John Healey, the defence secretary, is pressing for a bigger increase as there are concerns that £10 billion will not be enough, given the increasing likelihood that British forces will be deployed to Ukraine and the Middle East
Steven Swinford42,545 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
A new episode of The State of It on another day of extraordinary psychodrama in Westminster with Lara Spirit * Starmer appears fatally wounded. The pressure from Cabinet ministers on him tonight to set out a timeline for his departure is immense * Andy Burnham's return has effectively given Starmer a stay of execution. His hand is already weakened - there is no way he can block him this time * Lara Spirit reveals that she nearly collided with Wes Streeting and his aide as she wheeled her bike into Parliament this afternoon. She says he looked remarkably chipper for a man who has just climbed down from a leadership challenge
Steven Swinford28,779 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
This week's episode of our podcast The State of It with the brilliant Lara Spirit * Inside the bitter Cabinet splits over the defence investment plan - why nobody is happy * Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce a £13.5billion increase in defence spending - far less than previously considered * John Healey, the defence secretary, has warned that this will not be enough and that it risks undermining our credibility in Nato. Defence chiefs had originally asked for £28billion * The Treasury is also said to be pushing for a "planning assumption" that Britain will only meet its target of spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence up from current levels of 2.3 per cent in 2034/35. Healey is concerned that this is not soon enough, given the scale of the threat Britain faces, and has so far refused to sign it off * Talks are going down to the wire. The launch of the Defence Investment Plan was planned for Friday but it could easily be delayed yet again * The defence chiefs are deeply unhappy. They are concerned that the money on the table will not be enough to fund key projects. There's a feeling they have largely been kept in the dark * Reeves is deeply frustrated by the process - the fact she is having to effectively reopen the spending review process to find the money. Her intervention at an investor conference yesterday - warning of need for tax rises to fund defence - was particularly significant * Then there's the bigger political picture - what if Burnham wins Makerfield, becomes PM and takes a different view? By that stage you could have a new PM, a new chancellor and a new defence secretary. Worth remembering that there are significant cuts to DfT capital budgets and net zero projects to help fund the DIP * Latest from Makerfield: Burnham allies are increasingly confident he will win the by-election. They think Restore UK is a factor that will divide the vote on the right. Restore is targeting female voters in particular * The big question - if Burnham wins Makerfield when does he make his move? Allies suggesting he is likely to go sooner than later * The prospect of an orderly transition appears unlikely - Starmer said to think Burnham's manoeuvres are 'unforgivable' - there is mutual enmity between the two men which goes back for years * Will Starmer stand and fight? He insists he will. But we have seen this before with Boris Johnson and even Liz Truss insisting they would fight on and then going. But Starmer is a different character * If there is a leadership contest where does that leave Labour? It means we will have weeks of internal arguments and a 'battle of ideas' in the run-up to a hugely challenging cost of living crisis this winter...
Steven Swinford16,238 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Amid the chaos engulfing Sir Keir Starmer's Premiership we've taken the brave decision to record a live edition of The State of It at the Fleet Street Quarter festival tomorrow morning With the brilliant Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund You can join us for the for the recording at Temple Church in London at 11.30, or listen tomorrow evening on Youtube or wherever you get your podcasts Tickets available here:
Steven Swinford22,722 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
This week's episode of The State of It on a tectonic week in British politics as Thursday's elections approach With the brilliant Lara Spirit • Keir Starmer is up for the fight. One ally says he will need to be dragged out of No 10. Another talked about how it would look to launch a putsch when we're on the cusp of rationing jet fuel • Starmer lining up speech. There's talk of a 'big offer' but what does it look like? Genuine discussion around moving on manifesto red lines - ie manifesto outdated for times we are now in - but Starmer thought to be v wary. It carries huge risks in and of itself. • Strong pushback on claims that the NEC will now side with Andy Burnham and allow him to make a comeback to Westminster as an MP. Starmer believes it is still on his side, and he is ready to block Burnham's comeback once again. • Most of the action in the wake of the local elections will be on Friday afternoon/ evening, when there is a wave of key results. It means that if anyone is to move - and that is a big if - it's likely to be over the weekend. • All eyes on Angela Rayner - will she go to it? Her people are divided between those who think she should seize the moment, and those who think she is better off waiting * The Labour left is divided. Some believe that Burnham should be their candidate and is worth waiting for. She may be liked by party members but is unpopular with the public * Wes Streeting said to have the numbers but he has said publicly and privately that he doesn't think now is the time for a contest. That's not to say that he isn't ready to go, that he doesn't have a team in place, that he doesn't have a policy platform ready. He just doesn't think that now is the time * Nigel Farage £5million 'gift' from Christopher Harborne, a British crypto billionaire based in Thailand, remains an issue. Farage insists it is his money and he can spend it as he wishes. But the Tories have referred it to the standards commissioner and the electoral commission. *This could have a long tail, particularly over claims it is a conflict of interest given Farage's promotion of cryptocurrency. This is categorically denied by Reform UK * Is some of the sheen coming off Zack Polanski? Thursday will be a breakthrough night for them, but polling suggests that he has dropped 14 points in favourability in the space of a week since row over Golders Green suspect. He's still far more popular than the PM, but it is a significant move
Steven Swinford23,462 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Inside the Mandelson vetting scandal - a bonus edition of our podcast The State of It • Open warfare between Number 10 and Sir Olly Robbins, who was sacked as perm sec of the foreign office this week • Cat Little, the perm sec at the cabinet office, asked the foreign office for the vetting file weeks ago. Starmer allies claim that Robbins blocked its release • She was eventually given the file on March 25 but felt unable to share it with Starmer because of legal issues. She took extensive advice, both on data protection issues and more broadly issues of whether it would undermine the entire vetting system, which relies on confidentiality and is supposed to be insulated from ministers • She went to Starmer on Tuesday, nearly a month later. He was incandescent and ordered an investigation. Robbins was sacked on Thursday • Extraordinary as it sounds, nobody is now disputing Starmer's claim that Robbins failed to tell ministers. Robbins kept it to himself. • But Robbins' allies are fighting back. They insist he did nothing wrong and say he has been scapegoated. • They argue that the PM put Robbins in an invidious position by announcing Mandelson's appointment before he had even undergone security vetting. • They say he would have been in breach of his obligations as a civil servant if he had informed the PM that Mandelson had failed his initial security vetting. • Will Starmer survive? Labour MPs seem to think he will for now. But it adds yet more fuel to the anger about Starmer's original, catastrophic misjudgement in appointing Mandelson. • Next week will be a blockbuster, with both Starmer and Robbins making public appearances With Patrick Maguire and Lara Spirit
Steven Swinford24,595 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
The latest episode of our podcast The State of It: • Exclusive from Patrick Maguire : Sir Keir Starmer's allies say he could remain in Downing Street until early next year. They say he has no plans to step down before Labour conference in September and is unlikely to relinquish office before Christmas • Inside yesterday's surreal Cabinet on 'delivery': Ed Miliband said to be unable to look at Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister, as he spoke. He 'almost performatively turned away' • There is bad blood on all sides. Starmer is furious with senior members of his Cabinet; he feels betrayed. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, and Miliband are the subject of his opprobrium. As obviously is Wes Streeting • But it goes both ways. Even some loyalists have had enough and are sympathetic to the withering critique Wes Streeting set out in his resignation letter • The last of the Starmer loyalists: Steve Reed, Anna Turley, Richard Hermer and Heidi Alexander were in the bunker last week along with Chris Ward and Jenny Chapman • How radical will Andy Burnham be? He has now ruled out pushing for a second referendum. He has adopted the government's fiscal rules in full. It will limit his room for manoeuvre unless he raises taxes significantly With Patrick Maguire and Lara Spirit
Steven Swinford14,471 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
This week's scoop-packed episode of our podcast The State of It: IRAN * Britain is unlikely to deploy the navy to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for two reasons - lack of naval assets and risk to servicemen and women. Support focused on mine-clearance and logistics instead * Cost of living support on energy bills likely to be modelled on warm homes discount, focused on those on benefits and pensions credit LEADERSHIP * Some Angela Rayner allies suggest she is willing to go over the top and mount a direct challenge to Starmer if results are as bad as expected in May * Other Cabinet ministers also said to fancy their chances. Patrick Maguire: 'There are lots of people in the Cabinet who fancy this themselves who say 'Jesus, what, you really, you are going to be the next PM?' MCSWEENEY'S STOLEN PHONE * What happened when Morgan McSweeney's phone was stolen? It was reported to police but they didn't investigate because they were too busy * The phone was stolen just over a month after Mandelson was sacked over his links to Epstein * The next tranche of Mandelson files is now with the Intelligence and Security Committee. They want to release as much as possible and will not withhold material just because it is 'embarrassing to the government' With Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund
Steven Swinford20,111 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
This week's episode of our podcast The State of It: * Exclusive on Reform’s election slogan: 'Vote Reform. Get Starmer Out' Nigel Farage wants to make the local elections a referendum on Starmer and his Premiership. The slogan will be launched later this week with a full campaign of attack ads, poster trucks and social media coverage * Local election carnage Cabinet fears about London, the post-mortem is already beginning. @laraspirit on how David Lammy thinks Labour should be making much more noise about reapprochment with the EU * The five-way brawl London is effectively a five-way brawl, with threats to Labour on all fronts. From the Greens in areas like Camden, islington and Hackney, the Tories in areas like Westminster and Wandsworth, the Lib Dems in places like Merton and Reform in the outer ring * Historic losses, historic gains Analysis suggests Reform could make 2000+ gains while Labour could end up losing 1,900 seats, leaving it holding just 13% of the seats it is contesting. Tories on course for very bad night - 1,000+ seats lost - while Greens could be other winner with 450+ gains * It's bad for the Tories too Don't underestimate how bad it is for the Tories. Yes, Kemi Badenoch is now outperforming other party leaders but she's still on -9, and there are no signs of her improved standing feeding through to the party brand With the brilliant Gabriel Pogrund and Lara Spirit
Steven Swinford17,653 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
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