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Two PhD degrees, extensive market knowledge, not only charting - but but also option flows, macro-economy, bonds and politics. I love posting political memes.

Shorts

It was the most bearish day accompanied by the most persistent call buying I've seen in the last three years. Market makers were hedging for a sharp downside move toward 7,450–7,400. Gamma was negative at virtually every level between 7,500 and 7,375. The gamma exposure was large enough that a single meaningful downward move could have triggered tens of points of additional selling. That's why we had those temporary dumps in the market! At the same time, there was relentless call buying throughout the entire session (see the video), pushing the market higher towards the previous day's high. The scale of this $SPY call buying was among the largest I've ever seen. Roughly $500 million in call premium traded in a single day-something that doesn't happen even on the most bullish days. Even when Trump canceled tariffs after liberation days, there was less calls bought!

It was the most bearish day accompanied by the most persistent call buying I've seen in the last three years. Market makers were hedging for a sharp downside move toward 7,450–7,400. Gamma was negative at virtually every level between 7,500 and 7,375. The gamma exposure was large enough that a single meaningful downward move could have triggered tens of points of additional selling. That's why we had those temporary dumps in the market! At the same time, there was relentless call buying throughout the entire session (see the video), pushing the market higher towards the previous day's high. The scale of this $SPY call buying was among the largest I've ever seen. Roughly $500 million in call premium traded in a single day-something that doesn't happen even on the most bullish days. Even when Trump canceled tariffs after liberation days, there was less calls bought!

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Okay, so we barely hit 7,450 today... But the VIX crush was achieved. It's not a great sign when the VIX drops significantly, yet the market still doesn't want to move higher. That usually means one of two things: either there are too many calls being sold into, creating selling pressure, or there's simply underlying share-selling pressure in the market.

Okay, so we barely hit 7,450 today... But the VIX crush was achieved. It's not a great sign when the VIX drops significantly, yet the market still doesn't want to move higher. That usually means one of two things: either there are too many calls being sold into, creating selling pressure, or there's simply underlying share-selling pressure in the market.

96,531 次观看

Okay I think it's time for the Green Monday! This is a post for people who don't sleep (assuming investors even sleep) during the GLOBEX session PS. You must see the image in the comment! Friday was ugly. S&P 500 dumped 2.64% to 7,383.74, worst day since October, VIX up nearly 40% as the hedging machine kicked in. Everyone's asking the same thing into Sunday's open: fade it or buy it? I'm buying it - just not at 6pm ET like the dip can't get deeper. It all keys off 7350, where futures settled in GLOBEX. Two ways we open. The likely one: we gap up. Don't chase the first candle - after a 40% VIX pop you get a squeeze (S&P 500 goes up like crazy 2pm ET GLOBEX open), then a dip. Let the squeeze run, buy the first real pullback between 8pm and 3am ET. The other: we leak toward 7300 on lingering VIX hedging. Don't catch the knife - wait for it to base, a clean hold of 7300 or clear 5-minute support, then buy the rebound that usually shows late GLOBEX or 3-4am pre-market. Same plan either way: I buy the dip, not the rip. If you are bull, be smart bull. Where I want the close: 7400 is the floor, 7450 my base case, and 7500 is very much in play (though less probable than 7450) - about 2% off the GLOBEX pivot, with the Nasdaq roughly 2.5% higher (If S&P 500 hits 7500) on a chip snapback. Friday was a volatility event, those almost always make the whole market rebound a day or two after.

Okay I think it's time for the Green Monday! This is a post for people who don't sleep (assuming investors even sleep) during the GLOBEX session PS. You must see the image in the comment! Friday was ugly. S&P 500 dumped 2.64% to 7,383.74, worst day since October, VIX up nearly 40% as the hedging machine kicked in. Everyone's asking the same thing into Sunday's open: fade it or buy it? I'm buying it - just not at 6pm ET like the dip can't get deeper. It all keys off 7350, where futures settled in GLOBEX. Two ways we open. The likely one: we gap up. Don't chase the first candle - after a 40% VIX pop you get a squeeze (S&P 500 goes up like crazy 2pm ET GLOBEX open), then a dip. Let the squeeze run, buy the first real pullback between 8pm and 3am ET. The other: we leak toward 7300 on lingering VIX hedging. Don't catch the knife - wait for it to base, a clean hold of 7300 or clear 5-minute support, then buy the rebound that usually shows late GLOBEX or 3-4am pre-market. Same plan either way: I buy the dip, not the rip. If you are bull, be smart bull. Where I want the close: 7400 is the floor, 7450 my base case, and 7500 is very much in play (though less probable than 7450) - about 2% off the GLOBEX pivot, with the Nasdaq roughly 2.5% higher (If S&P 500 hits 7500) on a chip snapback. Friday was a volatility event, those almost always make the whole market rebound a day or two after.

66,734 次观看

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