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Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

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Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter read in +180 countries 👇🏼

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Ronald Reagan: "Tariffs increase inflation, reduce innovation and erode competitive edge of a country."

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Ronald Reagan: "Tariffs increase inflation, reduce innovation and erode competitive edge of a country."

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

504,231 views • 1 year ago

Apollo CEO Marc Rowan on the data center financing: “Hyperscalers are pretty safe; intermediaries that are taking up the debt and balance sheet risk not so much.” Neoclouds are leveraging themselves instead of hyperscalers, but they don’t have the cash flows from other businesses to pay their debt if something goes wrong. This is why I have been avoiding $CRWV for so long.

Apollo CEO Marc Rowan on the data center financing: “Hyperscalers are pretty safe; intermediaries that are taking up the debt and balance sheet risk not so much.” Neoclouds are leveraging themselves instead of hyperscalers, but they don’t have the cash flows from other businesses to pay their debt if something goes wrong. This is why I have been avoiding $CRWV for so long.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

182,883 views • 6 months ago

Ray Dalio: “Gold is the only asset you can have that’s not somebody else’s liability.” Fears about tariffs and other sanctions are eroding trust in the US. This is why central banks are moving away from US debt and buying gold; they want something they can't be denied.

Ray Dalio: “Gold is the only asset you can have that’s not somebody else’s liability.” Fears about tariffs and other sanctions are eroding trust in the US. This is why central banks are moving away from US debt and buying gold; they want something they can't be denied.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

139,184 views • 5 months ago

Ray Dalio: “Gold does well when other assets do poorly, it’s the perfect diversifier.” Trust in fiat is eroding, so investors are shifting from fiat-denominated assets to hard assets. Tariffs between allies and political tensions are only accelerating the erosion of trust.

Ray Dalio: “Gold does well when other assets do poorly, it’s the perfect diversifier.” Trust in fiat is eroding, so investors are shifting from fiat-denominated assets to hard assets. Tariffs between allies and political tensions are only accelerating the erosion of trust.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

110,793 views • 5 months ago

$NBIS and $CRWV growing like crazy shouldn't be surprising. Satya Nadella publicly explained 6 months ago on a podcast that $MSFT would be leasing a lot of capacity going forward rather than building all itself. Here is what I think is happening: These neo-cloud businesses, both $NBIS and $CRWV, exist solely because $NVDA wants them to exist. Nvidia has an equity stake in both companies, and they are both members of the Nvidia Partners Program. Nvidia grants early access to its chips to the partners. Nvidia does that because it knows all hyperscalers, especially $MSFT and $AMZN, are racing to develop their own cutting-edge GPUs, as this is their biggest cost in scaling cloud operations. Nvidia knows that if they are allowed to control the supply, it will prolong the upgrade cycles and reduce orders to gain time to develop its own chips. This is why it's providing early access to the neo-clouds that are 100% dependent on Nvidia chips. Hyperscalers know that if they delay orders for the fresh capacity, the demand will shift to the neo-clouds that can build capacity fast with the support of $NVDA. Thus, $NVDA corners hyperscalers and strategically compels them to put new orders and cripples their ability to focus on their own chips. $MSFT sees this and says, "If this is the case, I'll just lease the capacity from the neo-clouds." It's basically a strategic response to $NVDA. It leases the bulk of their capacity, making them dependent on it. So, if $MSFT backs down, they'll have a really hard time staying alive. There is a small window of opportunity here for neo-clouds. If they can scale beyond hyperscalers and form a fragmented customer base, they may keep thriving even if hyperscalers reduce leases. Currently, $NBIS has a better shot at it than $CRWV, as $MSFT already makes up 72% of its revenue. I am long $NBIS, and I have already made 4x of money in the stock. I'll remain long $NBIS and even grow my position, but I'll remain skeptical of $CRWV for its unfavorable strategic position, as I explained above.

$NBIS and $CRWV growing like crazy shouldn't be surprising. Satya Nadella publicly explained 6 months ago on a podcast that $MSFT would be leasing a lot of capacity going forward rather than building all itself. Here is what I think is happening: These neo-cloud businesses, both $NBIS and $CRWV, exist solely because $NVDA wants them to exist. Nvidia has an equity stake in both companies, and they are both members of the Nvidia Partners Program. Nvidia grants early access to its chips to the partners. Nvidia does that because it knows all hyperscalers, especially $MSFT and $AMZN, are racing to develop their own cutting-edge GPUs, as this is their biggest cost in scaling cloud operations. Nvidia knows that if they are allowed to control the supply, it will prolong the upgrade cycles and reduce orders to gain time to develop its own chips. This is why it's providing early access to the neo-clouds that are 100% dependent on Nvidia chips. Hyperscalers know that if they delay orders for the fresh capacity, the demand will shift to the neo-clouds that can build capacity fast with the support of $NVDA. Thus, $NVDA corners hyperscalers and strategically compels them to put new orders and cripples their ability to focus on their own chips. $MSFT sees this and says, "If this is the case, I'll just lease the capacity from the neo-clouds." It's basically a strategic response to $NVDA. It leases the bulk of their capacity, making them dependent on it. So, if $MSFT backs down, they'll have a really hard time staying alive. There is a small window of opportunity here for neo-clouds. If they can scale beyond hyperscalers and form a fragmented customer base, they may keep thriving even if hyperscalers reduce leases. Currently, $NBIS has a better shot at it than $CRWV, as $MSFT already makes up 72% of its revenue. I am long $NBIS, and I have already made 4x of money in the stock. I'll remain long $NBIS and even grow my position, but I'll remain skeptical of $CRWV for its unfavorable strategic position, as I explained above.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

176,521 views • 10 months ago

1/ Ray Dalio created the biggest hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates. He predicted: - Dotcom Bubble of 2000. - Great Recession of 2008. - Covid Bubble of 2021. He now sees that the US is going into a debt crisis at full speed:

1/ Ray Dalio created the biggest hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates. He predicted: - Dotcom Bubble of 2000. - Great Recession of 2008. - Covid Bubble of 2021. He now sees that the US is going into a debt crisis at full speed:

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

125,406 views • 10 months ago

Higgsfield AI CEO: “We found out that $AMD is outperforming $NVDA in video inference.” Meanwhile $AMD: - Data center revenue up 59% YoY. - Killing Intel in data center CPUs. - Insiders are loading up. And it’s trading at a lower P/E than $NVDA which is 17 times bigger.

Higgsfield AI CEO: “We found out that $AMD is outperforming $NVDA in video inference.” Meanwhile $AMD: - Data center revenue up 59% YoY. - Killing Intel in data center CPUs. - Insiders are loading up. And it’s trading at a lower P/E than $NVDA which is 17 times bigger.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

117,085 views • 1 year ago

$GOOG is finally integrating AI in its homepage. “AI Mode” button goes directly to Gemini. This is going to be a game changer. For reference, ChatGPT got 5.5 billion traffic last month while Gemini got 500 million. Google, on the other hand, got 85 billion. Even if it can redirect just 5% of this traffic to Gemini, it’ll catch ChatGPT in usage. Bullish on $GOOG.

$GOOG is finally integrating AI in its homepage. “AI Mode” button goes directly to Gemini. This is going to be a game changer. For reference, ChatGPT got 5.5 billion traffic last month while Gemini got 500 million. Google, on the other hand, got 85 billion. Even if it can redirect just 5% of this traffic to Gemini, it’ll catch ChatGPT in usage. Bullish on $GOOG.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

95,667 views • 1 year ago

Jensen Huang: "AI needs more energy, we have to invest more in energy." All other components required for AI factories, i.e., compute, cooling, networking equipment take months at most to source but power takes years. We need to expand generation capacity and upgrade the grid infrastructure as fast as possible. This means massive amounts of investment will flow to power producers, specialized infrastructure contractors and equipment providers. The whole sector will have strong tailwinds for the next decade. Long energy. $CEG $SEI $TLN $FLNC $DY $VST $BE

Jensen Huang: "AI needs more energy, we have to invest more in energy." All other components required for AI factories, i.e., compute, cooling, networking equipment take months at most to source but power takes years. We need to expand generation capacity and upgrade the grid infrastructure as fast as possible. This means massive amounts of investment will flow to power producers, specialized infrastructure contractors and equipment providers. The whole sector will have strong tailwinds for the next decade. Long energy. $CEG $SEI $TLN $FLNC $DY $VST $BE

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

25,683 views • 6 months ago

2. "Earnings growth is the most important thing." Over the long run, stock prices necessarily follow earnings. This is natural as stocks represent ownership interest in the company. Look for consistently growing earnings.

2. "Earnings growth is the most important thing." Over the long run, stock prices necessarily follow earnings. This is natural as stocks represent ownership interest in the company. Look for consistently growing earnings.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

19,890 views • 1 year ago

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