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Tinky

@Tinky47flat • 4,278 subscribers

occasional uncommon insights into, and reflections on what was once the world's greatest game...

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Earth to Travis – Can You Hear Me? How could Travis Stone have possibly failed to make any comment on Baeza's poor break?! I mean, c'mon...

Earth to Travis – Can You Hear Me? How could Travis Stone have possibly failed to make any comment on Baeza's poor break?! I mean, c'mon...

51,620 Aufrufe

‡ Brant – Fast, Expensive, and Worrying In a recent 2yo MSW race at Santa Anita, Brant, a $3m OBS March sales purchase, made a winning debut for his high-profile connections. Sent off at odds of 4/5, he tracked the pace before taking command on the turn, and drew off to win by 5 1/4 lengths. He recorded a very fast raw time, and a 101 Beyer figure. His high auction price was due largely to his having breezed an eighth of a mile in :09 3/5 at OBS. In the wake of the bidding, Amr Zedan, who purchased the colt on the recommendation of his trainer, Bob Baffert, and bloodstock agent Donato Lanni, was quoted in TDN as saying: "These horses are difficult to come by. He ticked all the boxes. He was a very precocious Gun Runner with a great pedigree. And more importantly, if you have someone like Mr. [Bob] Baffert in your corner, that gives you the courage and the guts to just go after quality. And you'll know they are in the best hands to turn them into champions. This one is for the team: Donato and obviously Bob and his ability to turn them into champions. So if you have the great team, the great training, the rest is easy. Was he pricey? Yes. But quality dictates price. So I never hesitated.” The hyperbole, and boilerplate optimism, are understandable, as even owners with very deep pockets prefer not to dwell on their inevitably long lists of expensive failures. But Zedan and their team have also enjoyed a number of high-profile successes, including Taiba, another Gun Runner colt, which won the Santa Anita Derby and the Malibu, both Grade I, before being retired to stud. Lanni, who has signed for at least some of Zedan's other good horses, was quoted as saying: "This is what the boss [Baffert] wanted and what Amr wanted. Gun Runner is a tremendous stallion and he worked really good and galloped out good. He did everything you want one to do.” Again, boilerplate, and if one were to take the reactions of the owner and agent at face value, it would be easy to arrive at the conclusion that the horse had no faults. But that would be naïve. So, let's first take a look at Brant's pedigree. Gun Runner is a "top" sire, and well-capable of getting high-class runners. It's a bit too early to fully judge him as a source of durability, but excluding his current crop of 2yos, his runners are only averaging 10 career starts. That number will rise, but likely not enough to reach, let alone exceed the contemporary industry average of ~15. In other words, though he himself raced 19 times, and won his swan song (the Pegasus World Cup) at five, there is no evidence to suggest that he is likely to eventually prove to be a particular source of durability. Brant's dam, Tynan, raced 13 times, and he is her first registered foal. His second dam, Pappascat, has produced at least five foals to have raced, and while only one has reached 20 starts, four of the five raced at least 12 times, which by today's degraded standards, isn't so bad. The fact that the coat color inherited by Brant, and his dam, can be traced to a notably unsound influence, Unbridled's Song, may or may not be meaningful. But I wouldn't ignore it as a potentially worrying connection. Brant's dam-sire, Liam’s Map, was lightly raced himself, and both his sire (US) and dam have poor records in terms of durability. As a sire, he has thus far produced numbers similar to Gun Runner. So while Brant's first two dams promise more than many that I have come across in similar assessments, and his sire displayed durability on the track, his overall pedigree suggests average durability at best. And what about the word that Mr. Zedan used twice in the above quote – "quality"? Well, Curlin is a quality sire, but in terms of bottom-line production, it leaves a lot to be desired. That's not to say that there are no good runners to be found, in fact the closely related Pappacap, under Brant's second-dam, was a Gr. III winner, and twice Grade I placed. However, through Brant's first six dams at least, I believe there to be just a single Grade I winner, Al Qasr, a Champion stayer in Peru, which appears under his fourth-dam. That is not, by any reasonable definition, a strong bottom-line, although it is fair to say that Brant's first dam is unproven. *** What might be learned from Brant's debut race? Everyone can see that he ran fast, and was much the best of that field, but I would say that there were some nuanced aspects of his performance that were both interesting, and worrying. Those nuances relate to his action, as viewed both through the pan shot, and head-on. Watching the basic (pan) view, Brant appears to display some "knee action". It isn't extreme, but also isn't the type of action that ideally suits dirt runners, and I wouldn't say that the colt appears totally comfortable. Here's a brief, related post on knee action, for reference: Then, we have the (embedded) head-on view, in which Brant displays seriously distorted action in his near-fore (left front leg; right when viewed head-on). It's a fairly extreme example of what is called "winging", and for a number of reasons, does not bode well for durability. Such action is never desirable, and is typically related to certain foreleg conformation flaws, which may include an offset knee, and/or toeing in or out, etc. Note also that under typical American racing conditions (i.e. tightly turning, left-handed tracks), the left front leg is subjected to the greatest torque, which amplifies the potential for injury. It should go without saying that there are occasional anomalies, horses with poor action that remain sound despite such flaws. But they are the exceptions, and it is not uncommon to find abbreviated careers associated with such action. For further reference, here is a link to a closely related post that I wrote after a filly named Amor Fati broke her maiden in eye-catching style in February of 2024. She has made just one further start, and hasn't recorded a work over the past 15 months. What's interesting about Brant is that there are two separate issues relating to his action, and that the some obvious mitigating steps that could have been, or should be taken, in efforts to keep him sound, were not, and are unlikely to ever be taken. First, with regard to his knee action, keep in mind that it is a characteristic that is more typically associated with turf horses. And guess what? Brant's dam was a turf horse. His second-dam was also at her best on turf, and was Gr. II placed on that surface. Also, in some respects, he physically resembles that female line more than his sire. Of course no one who spends millions on a horse that breezed exceptionally fast at a 2yo sale would be thinking "turf", given that the commercial market, and stakes schedules greatly favor dirt runners. But at the same time, it would be a mistake to assume that a fast breeze at OBS necessarily indicates that a given horse will be best suited to dirt. I say that partly because the OBS track features an all-weather surface called "Safetrack", which is far from being identical to dirt racing surfaces. While countless horses have gone through those sales and excelled on dirt, it should never been taken for granted that it will be a preference. And to further flesh out the point, take a look at Brant's breeze video through this link (his pedigree page can also be seen): Despite being rushed to cover a furlong much faster than he ever will again, I would say that he looks smoother, and displays slightly less knee action than in his recent debut race. Why? Could it be, perhaps, because he would prove more comfortable on turf and/or synthetic tracks, than dirt surfaces? Given how he ran first out, this is purely an academic point, as there is virtually no chance that his connections would consider switching surfaces, unless his form on dirt were to deteriorate badly. The second, more important point, relates to Brant's distorted action. I can't find a head-on conformation photo of the colt, but would be very surprised if he does not display flaws in his near-fore. Even in the very unlikely event that the leg were to appear correct, such distorted action would have been on display at the sale, as well as in pre-training at Eddie Woods' farm. And it defies belief that experienced horsemen who were prepared to purchase an extremely expensive horse for an important client would not have covered that base. Which in turn begs two important questions. First, why recommend the purchase of a very expensive horse, no matter how fast, that has yet to race, and displays such distorted action? Secondly, why choose to give such a horse to a trainer whose style and history suggest that injury risk would likely be amplified, rather than mitigated? The answers to those questions help to illuminate why the breed-to-sell paradigm is so insidious. As long as breeders and stud farms are willing to overpay for stallion prospects, and turn blind eyes to conformation defects, distorted action, lack of durability, and modest female families, the connections of horses like Brant need only hope that they hold together long enough to win one or two big races, enabling them cash in. These are the number of career starts made by Zedan's previous best (and expensive) male runners: 9 Arabian Lion 6 Arabian Knight 9 Muth 10 Medina Spirit 11 Hejazi And as long as the AGSC (American Graded Stakes Committee) continues to enable the paradigm through its dishonest KY Derby "prep" Grade I designations, the ultimately damaging feedback loop will likely continue. The answer to the second question is closely entwined, and should be obvious. For all of his faults as a trainer, Baffert has long produced results in stakes races that lead to valuable stud careers, so owners who wish to play the breed-to-sell game consider him to be a logical choice. Of course Baffert and Zedan are hardly alone in supporting the dubious paradigm. But that a horse like Brant could bring millions at a sale, and be given to a trainer who trains very hard, and has compiled a very poor safety record, underscores the extreme degree to which the value of durability has been marginalized by the industry. One final note, and it's a genuine qualification that I always make when producing this type of post, I hope that Brant will enjoy a long, injury-free career. But if I were a betting man...

‡ Brant – Fast, Expensive, and Worrying In a recent 2yo MSW race at Santa Anita, Brant, a $3m OBS March sales purchase, made a winning debut for his high-profile connections. Sent off at odds of 4/5, he tracked the pace before taking command on the turn, and drew off to win by 5 1/4 lengths. He recorded a very fast raw time, and a 101 Beyer figure. His high auction price was due largely to his having breezed an eighth of a mile in :09 3/5 at OBS. In the wake of the bidding, Amr Zedan, who purchased the colt on the recommendation of his trainer, Bob Baffert, and bloodstock agent Donato Lanni, was quoted in TDN as saying: "These horses are difficult to come by. He ticked all the boxes. He was a very precocious Gun Runner with a great pedigree. And more importantly, if you have someone like Mr. [Bob] Baffert in your corner, that gives you the courage and the guts to just go after quality. And you'll know they are in the best hands to turn them into champions. This one is for the team: Donato and obviously Bob and his ability to turn them into champions. So if you have the great team, the great training, the rest is easy. Was he pricey? Yes. But quality dictates price. So I never hesitated.” The hyperbole, and boilerplate optimism, are understandable, as even owners with very deep pockets prefer not to dwell on their inevitably long lists of expensive failures. But Zedan and their team have also enjoyed a number of high-profile successes, including Taiba, another Gun Runner colt, which won the Santa Anita Derby and the Malibu, both Grade I, before being retired to stud. Lanni, who has signed for at least some of Zedan's other good horses, was quoted as saying: "This is what the boss [Baffert] wanted and what Amr wanted. Gun Runner is a tremendous stallion and he worked really good and galloped out good. He did everything you want one to do.” Again, boilerplate, and if one were to take the reactions of the owner and agent at face value, it would be easy to arrive at the conclusion that the horse had no faults. But that would be naïve. So, let's first take a look at Brant's pedigree. Gun Runner is a "top" sire, and well-capable of getting high-class runners. It's a bit too early to fully judge him as a source of durability, but excluding his current crop of 2yos, his runners are only averaging 10 career starts. That number will rise, but likely not enough to reach, let alone exceed the contemporary industry average of ~15. In other words, though he himself raced 19 times, and won his swan song (the Pegasus World Cup) at five, there is no evidence to suggest that he is likely to eventually prove to be a particular source of durability. Brant's dam, Tynan, raced 13 times, and he is her first registered foal. His second dam, Pappascat, has produced at least five foals to have raced, and while only one has reached 20 starts, four of the five raced at least 12 times, which by today's degraded standards, isn't so bad. The fact that the coat color inherited by Brant, and his dam, can be traced to a notably unsound influence, Unbridled's Song, may or may not be meaningful. But I wouldn't ignore it as a potentially worrying connection. Brant's dam-sire, Liam’s Map, was lightly raced himself, and both his sire (US) and dam have poor records in terms of durability. As a sire, he has thus far produced numbers similar to Gun Runner. So while Brant's first two dams promise more than many that I have come across in similar assessments, and his sire displayed durability on the track, his overall pedigree suggests average durability at best. And what about the word that Mr. Zedan used twice in the above quote – "quality"? Well, Curlin is a quality sire, but in terms of bottom-line production, it leaves a lot to be desired. That's not to say that there are no good runners to be found, in fact the closely related Pappacap, under Brant's second-dam, was a Gr. III winner, and twice Grade I placed. However, through Brant's first six dams at least, I believe there to be just a single Grade I winner, Al Qasr, a Champion stayer in Peru, which appears under his fourth-dam. That is not, by any reasonable definition, a strong bottom-line, although it is fair to say that Brant's first dam is unproven. *** What might be learned from Brant's debut race? Everyone can see that he ran fast, and was much the best of that field, but I would say that there were some nuanced aspects of his performance that were both interesting, and worrying. Those nuances relate to his action, as viewed both through the pan shot, and head-on. Watching the basic (pan) view, Brant appears to display some "knee action". It isn't extreme, but also isn't the type of action that ideally suits dirt runners, and I wouldn't say that the colt appears totally comfortable. Here's a brief, related post on knee action, for reference: Then, we have the (embedded) head-on view, in which Brant displays seriously distorted action in his near-fore (left front leg; right when viewed head-on). It's a fairly extreme example of what is called "winging", and for a number of reasons, does not bode well for durability. Such action is never desirable, and is typically related to certain foreleg conformation flaws, which may include an offset knee, and/or toeing in or out, etc. Note also that under typical American racing conditions (i.e. tightly turning, left-handed tracks), the left front leg is subjected to the greatest torque, which amplifies the potential for injury. It should go without saying that there are occasional anomalies, horses with poor action that remain sound despite such flaws. But they are the exceptions, and it is not uncommon to find abbreviated careers associated with such action. For further reference, here is a link to a closely related post that I wrote after a filly named Amor Fati broke her maiden in eye-catching style in February of 2024. She has made just one further start, and hasn't recorded a work over the past 15 months. What's interesting about Brant is that there are two separate issues relating to his action, and that the some obvious mitigating steps that could have been, or should be taken, in efforts to keep him sound, were not, and are unlikely to ever be taken. First, with regard to his knee action, keep in mind that it is a characteristic that is more typically associated with turf horses. And guess what? Brant's dam was a turf horse. His second-dam was also at her best on turf, and was Gr. II placed on that surface. Also, in some respects, he physically resembles that female line more than his sire. Of course no one who spends millions on a horse that breezed exceptionally fast at a 2yo sale would be thinking "turf", given that the commercial market, and stakes schedules greatly favor dirt runners. But at the same time, it would be a mistake to assume that a fast breeze at OBS necessarily indicates that a given horse will be best suited to dirt. I say that partly because the OBS track features an all-weather surface called "Safetrack", which is far from being identical to dirt racing surfaces. While countless horses have gone through those sales and excelled on dirt, it should never been taken for granted that it will be a preference. And to further flesh out the point, take a look at Brant's breeze video through this link (his pedigree page can also be seen): Despite being rushed to cover a furlong much faster than he ever will again, I would say that he looks smoother, and displays slightly less knee action than in his recent debut race. Why? Could it be, perhaps, because he would prove more comfortable on turf and/or synthetic tracks, than dirt surfaces? Given how he ran first out, this is purely an academic point, as there is virtually no chance that his connections would consider switching surfaces, unless his form on dirt were to deteriorate badly. The second, more important point, relates to Brant's distorted action. I can't find a head-on conformation photo of the colt, but would be very surprised if he does not display flaws in his near-fore. Even in the very unlikely event that the leg were to appear correct, such distorted action would have been on display at the sale, as well as in pre-training at Eddie Woods' farm. And it defies belief that experienced horsemen who were prepared to purchase an extremely expensive horse for an important client would not have covered that base. Which in turn begs two important questions. First, why recommend the purchase of a very expensive horse, no matter how fast, that has yet to race, and displays such distorted action? Secondly, why choose to give such a horse to a trainer whose style and history suggest that injury risk would likely be amplified, rather than mitigated? The answers to those questions help to illuminate why the breed-to-sell paradigm is so insidious. As long as breeders and stud farms are willing to overpay for stallion prospects, and turn blind eyes to conformation defects, distorted action, lack of durability, and modest female families, the connections of horses like Brant need only hope that they hold together long enough to win one or two big races, enabling them cash in. These are the number of career starts made by Zedan's previous best (and expensive) male runners: 9 Arabian Lion 6 Arabian Knight 9 Muth 10 Medina Spirit 11 Hejazi And as long as the AGSC (American Graded Stakes Committee) continues to enable the paradigm through its dishonest KY Derby "prep" Grade I designations, the ultimately damaging feedback loop will likely continue. The answer to the second question is closely entwined, and should be obvious. For all of his faults as a trainer, Baffert has long produced results in stakes races that lead to valuable stud careers, so owners who wish to play the breed-to-sell game consider him to be a logical choice. Of course Baffert and Zedan are hardly alone in supporting the dubious paradigm. But that a horse like Brant could bring millions at a sale, and be given to a trainer who trains very hard, and has compiled a very poor safety record, underscores the extreme degree to which the value of durability has been marginalized by the industry. One final note, and it's a genuine qualification that I always make when producing this type of post, I hope that Brant will enjoy a long, injury-free career. But if I were a betting man...

94,067 Aufrufe

‡ The Puma in the Sam F. Davis Stakes A three-year-old colt named The Puma made his debut at Gulfstream in a 7f. MSW race on January 10th. He raced up on the pace and held well to finish 2nd behind the Mott-trained first-starter Chief Wallabee, while 9 lengths clear of the 3rd-place finisher. It was a promising performance, and the colt recorded an 86 Beyer figure. He was entered in an 8.5f. MSW at Gulfstream on Saturday, and was listed as the 7/5 favorite. However, his connections chose to scratch the colt, and instead contest the 8.5f. Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, against tougher company, and over a different track surface. Will it prove to have been the correct choice? Well, if providing short-term thrills for the owner(s) is the goal, then perhaps. But in terms of the development of the horse, I would say that the answer is probably not. It is possible that he will surprise me by running well, and improving further in subsequent races, without missing a beat. But I am partial to classical, old-school training methods, typically employed by the very best trainers, which include more gradual step-ups in class, and strong foundations, or "bottoms". To be fair, trainers these days are often under great pressure from their owners, especially with young colts, and they have much more limited options than those who trained back in the '70s and '80s. Charlie Whittingham raced Sunday Silence four times in MSW and Alw. races before placing his future HOF Champion into stakes company. The undefeated HOF filly Personal Ensign, undefeated through 13 starts, competed in just one stakes race through her first four starts for Shug McGaughey. Today, there are fewer options available, and particularly in the form of allowance races beyond sprint distances. This is partly due to the excessive number of restricted stakes races available to two and three-year-old runners, which has had the effect of displacing what were once more natural, less taxing, and ultimately beneficial developmental patterns. Of course there are horses that are able to overcome less than ideal development, but many others, often forgotten, fall by the wayside, either due to physical and/or mental setbacks that result from rushed programs. The breed-to-sell paradigm is a big catalyst, as is the fever that afflicts too many owners, namely KY Derby fever. *** In terms of stamina, The Puma's pedigree is encouraging, at least superficially, as his young sire, Essential Quality, was a Travers winner over 10f., and a Belmont winner over 12f., while his dam, Eve of War, won up to 9f. He is the first foal to race from his dam. But from what I can discern from the replays of of his race, and the available clips and images on the OBS site (he was a $150k purchase through last year's April sale), I'm not confident that he will ultimately stay much beyond a mile, and with just one race under his belt, the Sam F. Davis may prove to be a stiff challenge. My concerns revolve mainly around two characteristics, his action and body type. Though not as extreme as those which I have highlighted in previous posts, The Puma does display distorted action, as can be seen in the attached clip of the finish of his lone race. He is on the right (turquoise cap). There are distortions in both front legs, and such inefficient action can have the effect of limiting distance capabilities, especially with speed horses. The second characteristic is that he appears to be a strongly-made colt. If you watch the second clip, from his OBS walk video, you should be able to see that he appears to have a muscular shoulder, and a fairly wide chest. Taken together, The Puma's action and body type are more likely to be found in sprinters than "two-turn" horses, and as suggested above, I would be surprised if he were ultimately able to stay effectively over Classic distances. In terms of pedigree, The Puma should have no trouble with the 8.5f. distance of the Sam F. Davis. But given all of the above, and an honest pace, I'm of the opinion that he is unlikely to win. It will, in any case, be interesting to see how he fares, and how he develops over the coming months.

‡ The Puma in the Sam F. Davis Stakes A three-year-old colt named The Puma made his debut at Gulfstream in a 7f. MSW race on January 10th. He raced up on the pace and held well to finish 2nd behind the Mott-trained first-starter Chief Wallabee, while 9 lengths clear of the 3rd-place finisher. It was a promising performance, and the colt recorded an 86 Beyer figure. He was entered in an 8.5f. MSW at Gulfstream on Saturday, and was listed as the 7/5 favorite. However, his connections chose to scratch the colt, and instead contest the 8.5f. Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, against tougher company, and over a different track surface. Will it prove to have been the correct choice? Well, if providing short-term thrills for the owner(s) is the goal, then perhaps. But in terms of the development of the horse, I would say that the answer is probably not. It is possible that he will surprise me by running well, and improving further in subsequent races, without missing a beat. But I am partial to classical, old-school training methods, typically employed by the very best trainers, which include more gradual step-ups in class, and strong foundations, or "bottoms". To be fair, trainers these days are often under great pressure from their owners, especially with young colts, and they have much more limited options than those who trained back in the '70s and '80s. Charlie Whittingham raced Sunday Silence four times in MSW and Alw. races before placing his future HOF Champion into stakes company. The undefeated HOF filly Personal Ensign, undefeated through 13 starts, competed in just one stakes race through her first four starts for Shug McGaughey. Today, there are fewer options available, and particularly in the form of allowance races beyond sprint distances. This is partly due to the excessive number of restricted stakes races available to two and three-year-old runners, which has had the effect of displacing what were once more natural, less taxing, and ultimately beneficial developmental patterns. Of course there are horses that are able to overcome less than ideal development, but many others, often forgotten, fall by the wayside, either due to physical and/or mental setbacks that result from rushed programs. The breed-to-sell paradigm is a big catalyst, as is the fever that afflicts too many owners, namely KY Derby fever. *** In terms of stamina, The Puma's pedigree is encouraging, at least superficially, as his young sire, Essential Quality, was a Travers winner over 10f., and a Belmont winner over 12f., while his dam, Eve of War, won up to 9f. He is the first foal to race from his dam. But from what I can discern from the replays of of his race, and the available clips and images on the OBS site (he was a $150k purchase through last year's April sale), I'm not confident that he will ultimately stay much beyond a mile, and with just one race under his belt, the Sam F. Davis may prove to be a stiff challenge. My concerns revolve mainly around two characteristics, his action and body type. Though not as extreme as those which I have highlighted in previous posts, The Puma does display distorted action, as can be seen in the attached clip of the finish of his lone race. He is on the right (turquoise cap). There are distortions in both front legs, and such inefficient action can have the effect of limiting distance capabilities, especially with speed horses. The second characteristic is that he appears to be a strongly-made colt. If you watch the second clip, from his OBS walk video, you should be able to see that he appears to have a muscular shoulder, and a fairly wide chest. Taken together, The Puma's action and body type are more likely to be found in sprinters than "two-turn" horses, and as suggested above, I would be surprised if he were ultimately able to stay effectively over Classic distances. In terms of pedigree, The Puma should have no trouble with the 8.5f. distance of the Sam F. Davis. But given all of the above, and an honest pace, I'm of the opinion that he is unlikely to win. It will, in any case, be interesting to see how he fares, and how he develops over the coming months.

13,182 Aufrufe

‡ Judging Firm Ground Turf Action Friday's 8th race is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. I've chosen this race not because it will necessarily present a good betting opportunity, but rather a good illustration of how I go about predicting whether horses which haven't yet raced on firm turf are likely to handle it well. In the U.S., handicappers typically look through the lens from the other side, meaning that as the vast majority of turf races are contested over firm (or hard) courses, predicting which horses may handle the odd soft ground race is the challenge. But when horses travel from Europe to the U.S., relatively few have shown form over anything like the firm ground typically found in the States, and not all of them adapt equally well. There are four European runners in the race. Balantina was beaten just a nose in a Group III race in France over a course rated firm, and her action appears consistent with a horse that should handle even firmer going. Precise, the 6/5 program favorite, has also won over relatively firm surfaces, and shows a good action. She'll need to overcome a very bad draw, but is clearly the best horse in the race on form. This brings us to the two fillies that I'll use to illustrate contrasting action. Broadly speaking, horses that are well-suited to firm surfaces show a fluid, lower-to-the-ground action, while those which often prove best on softer surfaces display a rounder, or what is sometimes referred to as "knee" action. Pacific Mission has run only three times. Her two races on turf were contested over ground that was much softer than what she will face at Del Mar. But her third race was at Kempton, over an all-weather surface, and the attached clip (below, on the left), was taken from that race. She is the one in front, with the rider wearing the iconic pink, white and green Juddmonte silks. As you should be able to see, Pacific Mission shows a good, fluid action, which implies that she is likely to adapt well to the Del Mar turf. Whether she, and her rider, Colin Keane, will be able to overcome the 12 post, and prove good enough to win or place, are different matters. Queen of Hawaii, trained by Aidan O'Brien's son Joseph, will break from post 2. She also has three starts to date, but unlike Pacific Mission, has yet to race over anything like firm ground. While all three of her races were over ground rated "good", that rating in Ireland is typically, I would say, equivalent to what would be labeled a "yielding" course in the U.S. That each of her last two races, both over a mile, were run no faster than 1:41 4/5, helps to illustrate the point. The clip of her most recent run (below, on the right), was taken from her Group III win at The Curragh in August. She is the horse tracking three wide (#5), in dark blue silks. Note how she picks up her knees, as that it the type of action that is more often associated with horses that prefer give in the ground. To be clear, some horse that display such action do "act" on firmer surfaces, as well, and presumably her trainer is optimistic that Queen of Hawaii will adapt. But the contrast between her action, and that of Pacific Mission, provides a good illustration of the basic differences. And setting aside all other handicapping variables, horses with fluid action are more likely to excel over firm surfaces than those with a pronounced knee action.

‡ Judging Firm Ground Turf Action Friday's 8th race is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. I've chosen this race not because it will necessarily present a good betting opportunity, but rather a good illustration of how I go about predicting whether horses which haven't yet raced on firm turf are likely to handle it well. In the U.S., handicappers typically look through the lens from the other side, meaning that as the vast majority of turf races are contested over firm (or hard) courses, predicting which horses may handle the odd soft ground race is the challenge. But when horses travel from Europe to the U.S., relatively few have shown form over anything like the firm ground typically found in the States, and not all of them adapt equally well. There are four European runners in the race. Balantina was beaten just a nose in a Group III race in France over a course rated firm, and her action appears consistent with a horse that should handle even firmer going. Precise, the 6/5 program favorite, has also won over relatively firm surfaces, and shows a good action. She'll need to overcome a very bad draw, but is clearly the best horse in the race on form. This brings us to the two fillies that I'll use to illustrate contrasting action. Broadly speaking, horses that are well-suited to firm surfaces show a fluid, lower-to-the-ground action, while those which often prove best on softer surfaces display a rounder, or what is sometimes referred to as "knee" action. Pacific Mission has run only three times. Her two races on turf were contested over ground that was much softer than what she will face at Del Mar. But her third race was at Kempton, over an all-weather surface, and the attached clip (below, on the left), was taken from that race. She is the one in front, with the rider wearing the iconic pink, white and green Juddmonte silks. As you should be able to see, Pacific Mission shows a good, fluid action, which implies that she is likely to adapt well to the Del Mar turf. Whether she, and her rider, Colin Keane, will be able to overcome the 12 post, and prove good enough to win or place, are different matters. Queen of Hawaii, trained by Aidan O'Brien's son Joseph, will break from post 2. She also has three starts to date, but unlike Pacific Mission, has yet to race over anything like firm ground. While all three of her races were over ground rated "good", that rating in Ireland is typically, I would say, equivalent to what would be labeled a "yielding" course in the U.S. That each of her last two races, both over a mile, were run no faster than 1:41 4/5, helps to illustrate the point. The clip of her most recent run (below, on the right), was taken from her Group III win at The Curragh in August. She is the horse tracking three wide (#5), in dark blue silks. Note how she picks up her knees, as that it the type of action that is more often associated with horses that prefer give in the ground. To be clear, some horse that display such action do "act" on firmer surfaces, as well, and presumably her trainer is optimistic that Queen of Hawaii will adapt. But the contrast between her action, and that of Pacific Mission, provides a good illustration of the basic differences. And setting aside all other handicapping variables, horses with fluid action are more likely to excel over firm surfaces than those with a pronounced knee action.

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‡ The Dishonest Disruptor Confirms My Points Mike Repole Stable belatedly responded to this recent post of mine: As is typically the case, he failed to respond to any of the clearly articulated, fact-based criticisms that I provided, which serves as clear confirmation of one of the chief criticisms that I described in the post, namely that he has been, at least in our exchanges, consistently unwilling, or unable to admit having made mistakes. He also continued to display exactly the type of dishonesty that I have repeatedly argued reflects poorly on him, and degrades his efforts to affect change in the industry. The ad hominems – his stock and trade when he is unable to argue the substance of an issue – are par for the course. But this warrants a specific mention: "There’s real vision. Real strategy. Real solutions. "I’m sorry I didn’t run them by you first. "Maybe go back and watch the podcast we did together, the one where I laid out actual answers to fix this industry and you sat there stunned." Hmmm...does the combination of vitriol, childish insults, and the vague threats of lawsuits, constitute a "real" strategy? If he were to actually succeed in blowing up the organizations that he has been targeting, what would come next? Has he ever explained publicly how he imagines them to be replaced? And the podcast reference? Well, that's a doozy, and it's not the first or second time that Mike has dishonestly asserted, or implied that I never offer solutions. I've embedded a clip from the podcast to which he refers. Note that I provided a couple of minutes worth of ideas for solutions to various industry problems, some of which are uncommon, and have never been among those floated by Mike. And remember, he accused me (above) of sitting in stunned silence, while he laid out solutions! 😂 (An amusing pedantic note: he attempted to correct me when I mentioned that there are four identical Grade I Derby preps that are run within the span of one week, by interjecting that there are "only three". He was wrong: Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Bluegrass, SA Derby) *** To his credit, Mike occasionally shows the ability to be self-deprecating in public. Numerous times he has said "Am I an a**hole? Yes.", as a way of owning up to his, at times, abrasive personality. My suggestion is that he should update that line in order to more accurately reflect his weaknesses: Am I an a**hole, who has difficulty admitting mistakes, and tends to be dishonest when I am unable to argue the substance of serious criticism? Yes. As a final note, some apparently have the impression that Mike and i somehow are on different sides. That is false, as we agree on many of the broad strokes of major issues, including the industry's need for radical reform. I have also spoken publicly on problems in the industry for decades. My criticisms of Mike (and others) are not, in essence, a "defense" of the organizations that he attacks, but rather a reminder that the facts, and honest argumentation, matter.
2:56
Tinky47flat's profile picture

‡ The Dishonest Disruptor Confirms My Points Mike Repole Stable belatedly responded to this recent post of mine: As is typically the case, he failed to respond to any of the clearly articulated, fact-based criticisms that I provided, which serves as clear confirmation of one of the chief criticisms that I described in the post, namely that he has been, at least in our exchanges, consistently unwilling, or unable to admit having made mistakes. He also continued to display exactly the type of dishonesty that I have repeatedly argued reflects poorly on him, and degrades his efforts to affect change in the industry. The ad hominems – his stock and trade when he is unable to argue the substance of an issue – are par for the course. But this warrants a specific mention: "There’s real vision. Real strategy. Real solutions. "I’m sorry I didn’t run them by you first. "Maybe go back and watch the podcast we did together, the one where I laid out actual answers to fix this industry and you sat there stunned." Hmmm...does the combination of vitriol, childish insults, and the vague threats of lawsuits, constitute a "real" strategy? If he were to actually succeed in blowing up the organizations that he has been targeting, what would come next? Has he ever explained publicly how he imagines them to be replaced? And the podcast reference? Well, that's a doozy, and it's not the first or second time that Mike has dishonestly asserted, or implied that I never offer solutions. I've embedded a clip from the podcast to which he refers. Note that I provided a couple of minutes worth of ideas for solutions to various industry problems, some of which are uncommon, and have never been among those floated by Mike. And remember, he accused me (above) of sitting in stunned silence, while he laid out solutions! 😂 (An amusing pedantic note: he attempted to correct me when I mentioned that there are four identical Grade I Derby preps that are run within the span of one week, by interjecting that there are "only three". He was wrong: Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Bluegrass, SA Derby) *** To his credit, Mike occasionally shows the ability to be self-deprecating in public. Numerous times he has said "Am I an a**hole? Yes.", as a way of owning up to his, at times, abrasive personality. My suggestion is that he should update that line in order to more accurately reflect his weaknesses: Am I an a**hole, who has difficulty admitting mistakes, and tends to be dishonest when I am unable to argue the substance of serious criticism? Yes. As a final note, some apparently have the impression that Mike and i somehow are on different sides. That is false, as we agree on many of the broad strokes of major issues, including the industry's need for radical reform. I have also spoken publicly on problems in the industry for decades. My criticisms of Mike (and others) are not, in essence, a "defense" of the organizations that he attacks, but rather a reminder that the facts, and honest argumentation, matter.

Tinky

14,648 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

‡ The Pacific Classic Result It was unfortunate that Nysos was scratched, but the result was interesting, with Fierceness, the 1.6/1 second-favorite, comfortably handling Journalism, the (overbet) 2/5 choice. That the odds of the remaining five runners ranged between 22/1 and 72/1, underscored the yawning gap in quality between the top pair and the rest. So it was clearly no surprise that the "also-rans" toiled in their wake. What was surprising, at least at first glance, was how well Fierceness appeared to handle less than ideal conditions. But on closer inspection, his trip was actually far less challenging than the vast majority of post-race takes have suggested. His having ducked in soon after the start, almost making contact with the temporary extension rail, could have been a disaster, but it wasn't, and its importance has arguably been overblown. I say that because it was not similar to the trouble that he had encountered early in some of his previous races, in that he was in his own space, and was neither bumped, constricted, nor otherwise intimidated by other runners. This is an important distinction, because the mental weakness that he had previously displayed was related to close encounters with other horses, and his ducking-in after the break did not fall into that category. Inexperienced horses may suffer from that type of self-inflicted event, but given a mature, experienced runner, they are almost always forgotten quickly, which was clearly the case here. The fact that it was a long race also helped to mitigate the event, as there was no need for the rider to panic, or feel pressure to make up ground immediately. It is even possible that the early ground loss actually helped Fierceness, as had he been drawn closer to the pace early, it could have rendered him vulnerable in the late stages of the race. At the same time, due to the inside post, and how the race unfolded, Johnny Velasquez, who has done such a brilliant job keeping Fierceness outside and clear of his rivals in his previous wins, was forced to make the best of racing inside of horses. I understand why some are tempted to argue that Fierceness displayed a new dimension, as there were no obvious signs of him having been intimidated, despite the inside trip. But while I am willing to consider the possibility that he has gained confidence, I remain skeptical of any significant change, in part because it would be highly unusual for a horse to overcome that type of mental weakness midway through its four-year-old season, and/or in its 13th start. I also remain unconvinced for more subtle reasons. First, Fierceness was never bounced around, and with the possible exception of the first turn, he was never forced to race in especially tight quarters. Secondly, the rhythm of the race, after the initial duck-in, was actually smooth, and therefore beneficial to him. To understand why the above points are important, consider that Fierceness was never, so to speak, allergic to racing inside, but was more likely to face contact, be squeezed into a tight space, or have his rhythm thrown off when breaking from an inside post. In contrast, when breaking from an outside post, JV has invariably been able to place him clear of the pack, and in a comfortable, stalking rhythm. Fierceness is also essentially a free-runner, with a "light" mouth, and as such performs best when his rider allows him to dictate his own rhythm and pace. That is why, for example, Johnny V was not at all responsible for his loss in the Breeders' Cup Classic, as he is not the type of horse that a rider can take a strong hold of in order to restrain him further off of the pace, as that would discourage him. And to the great credit of both JV and Todd Pletcher, they picked up on this early on, and have done a superb job mitigating the colt's limitations, and maximizing his potential. In the Pacific Classic, despite racing on the inside, Johnny V remained cool and calm, and gave Fierceness another masterful ride. He and the colt's connections did benefit though, as none of his rivals, either intentionally or not, tightened things up significantly, or otherwise disrupted his rhythm. In fact, quite the opposite. Having tracked comfortably through much of the race, and with space around him, Fierceness displayed his trademark spurt on the final turn. And while the pan shot may suggest that he slipped though a tight opening, it was more like the red sea parting, as the embedded head-on view illustrates. If you are able to view the full head-on replay, you will find that despite racing inside, Fierceness actually enjoyed quite a comfortable trip, after the eventful few strides. A more subtle indication that we were watching the same horse as in his previous races comes :12-14 seconds into the embedded clip. When he was about to take the lead, he cocked his head to the right, as if he may have been worried about the horse outside of him. He was able to draw away from that one so quickly that it was ultimately of no practical consequence, but I would say that it implies that he hasn't suddenly developed the heart of a lion. *** Two qualities that have been crucial to Fierceness' success are his tactical speed, coupled with the separation that he produces on the final turn of his (two-turn) races. His ability to take command at that crucial stage has served him very well, particularly in his narrow win over Thorpedo Anna, and it was again on display in the Pacific Classic. A big part of the reason why that move has been such an important part of his arsenal is that it typically allows his him to take a "breather", before digging deep in an effort to fend off any late dangers. I encourage you to watch the (pan) replay of the Pacific Classic, and focus on Johnny V from around the 3/8th pole to the head of the stretch, as he was sitting like the proverbial statue. So for at least a furlong and a half, Fierceness was on cruise control, while Journalism, his only danger, was under pressure to make up ground, in an attempt to simply reach striking distance. But with all due credit to Fierceness and his rider for having produced fine efforts in the Pacific Classic, was this really an exceptionally outstanding performance, or was it at least partly a reflection of his only serious rival failing to run his best? I'm inclined to argue the latter. Despite Journalism having produced an unusually good 3yo campaign, capped by three Gr. I wins, including a Classic success in the Preakness, and never finishing worse than second, there have been some lingering questions. One of them is whether he is actually as well-suited to 10f. as he is to 8-9f. races. Yes, he was beaten in his two previous tries over 10f. by Sovereignty, a better horse. But in each race he was able to gain first-run on that one, an advantage that is typically difficult to overcome, yet lost ground late to the winner both times, and to Baeza as well, in the KY Derby. Some have suggested that he may have a tendency to loaf when in front, but I haven't seen any compelling evidence of that. And such horses typically dig in when passed, in efforts to re-engage, which we haven't seen, at least overtly, from Journalism. He also drew away from his rivals late in his first three wins. Alex Evers made this interesting comment about the kickback in the Pacific Classic: "I've photographed racing for 20 years, I've never seen kick back knock a jockeys goggles off like this." Here is a link to his supporting photos, which are typically excellent: Could that have discouraged Journalism? I suppose that it could have been an impediment, but he is such a tough and honest horse, that I would be surprised to learn that it was a meaningful factor. By contemporary standards, Journalism has also had a busy campaign, having raced a touch over once per month since March, all but one of which in Grade I events, and four times well away from his home base. So it is possible that he is beginning to feel the effects of those races, and travels. I have also noted that from a Beyer figure standpoint, he hasn't really moved forward, and it's worth noting that in contrast to Sovereignty and Baeza, both of which were late (May) foals, Journalism was a February foal, and may not have had quite as much room to improve. I don't know why he lagged so far behind in the early stages of the Pacific Classic, or if there was any tactical intention behind it. I had previously suggested that it might make sense to ride him more patiently, a tactic that is sometimes adopted when there are questions about a horse staying a trip. But I didn't notice any improved late kick, so it's difficult to interpret the performance. Fierceness earned a 107 Beyer figure for his victory, slower than his best three races last year, and merely equivalent to his comeback victory in the Gr. II Alysheba at Churchill Downs, in May. That doesn't suggest that it was a particularly outstanding performance. Journalism was given a 102, which implies that the return to his home court did not catalyze any notable forward move. *** I would say that there is one relevant pattern that has emerged, namely that Fierceness has an apparent affinity for the faster, high energy return track surfaces in California. He has now contested three races in CA (Beyer): 1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile (105) 2nd Breeders' Cup Classic (111) 1st Pacific Classic (107) It's also interesting to compare the colt's first and last half-mile fractions in his effort in last year's BCC, and the PC, both contested at Del Mar over 10f.: BCC – :45 1/5 • :51 3/5 PC – :46 1/5 • :50 2/5 Predictably, he finished better in the PC, thanks to more manageable early fractions. But would a repeat of that effort be nearly sufficient to win this year's Classic? Given the various points noted above, coupled with Sovereignty's continued improvement, and seemingly bottomless stamina, I would be inclined to say no. And that's before even factoring Sierra Leone, Mindframe, Forever Young, et al, into the conversation. But setting aside all of the fine parsing, I'm happy to congratulate Repole Stable, and Fierceness' other connections, for having shipped to California, and for being rewarded with an exciting, winning effort. Assuming that the colt makes it to the Breeders' Cup Classic in good order, he should minimally add spice to the race, and who knows, perhaps even provide a serious challenge to knock Sovereignty off of his current throne.
0:24
Tinky47flat's profile picture

‡ The Pacific Classic Result It was unfortunate that Nysos was scratched, but the result was interesting, with Fierceness, the 1.6/1 second-favorite, comfortably handling Journalism, the (overbet) 2/5 choice. That the odds of the remaining five runners ranged between 22/1 and 72/1, underscored the yawning gap in quality between the top pair and the rest. So it was clearly no surprise that the "also-rans" toiled in their wake. What was surprising, at least at first glance, was how well Fierceness appeared to handle less than ideal conditions. But on closer inspection, his trip was actually far less challenging than the vast majority of post-race takes have suggested. His having ducked in soon after the start, almost making contact with the temporary extension rail, could have been a disaster, but it wasn't, and its importance has arguably been overblown. I say that because it was not similar to the trouble that he had encountered early in some of his previous races, in that he was in his own space, and was neither bumped, constricted, nor otherwise intimidated by other runners. This is an important distinction, because the mental weakness that he had previously displayed was related to close encounters with other horses, and his ducking-in after the break did not fall into that category. Inexperienced horses may suffer from that type of self-inflicted event, but given a mature, experienced runner, they are almost always forgotten quickly, which was clearly the case here. The fact that it was a long race also helped to mitigate the event, as there was no need for the rider to panic, or feel pressure to make up ground immediately. It is even possible that the early ground loss actually helped Fierceness, as had he been drawn closer to the pace early, it could have rendered him vulnerable in the late stages of the race. At the same time, due to the inside post, and how the race unfolded, Johnny Velasquez, who has done such a brilliant job keeping Fierceness outside and clear of his rivals in his previous wins, was forced to make the best of racing inside of horses. I understand why some are tempted to argue that Fierceness displayed a new dimension, as there were no obvious signs of him having been intimidated, despite the inside trip. But while I am willing to consider the possibility that he has gained confidence, I remain skeptical of any significant change, in part because it would be highly unusual for a horse to overcome that type of mental weakness midway through its four-year-old season, and/or in its 13th start. I also remain unconvinced for more subtle reasons. First, Fierceness was never bounced around, and with the possible exception of the first turn, he was never forced to race in especially tight quarters. Secondly, the rhythm of the race, after the initial duck-in, was actually smooth, and therefore beneficial to him. To understand why the above points are important, consider that Fierceness was never, so to speak, allergic to racing inside, but was more likely to face contact, be squeezed into a tight space, or have his rhythm thrown off when breaking from an inside post. In contrast, when breaking from an outside post, JV has invariably been able to place him clear of the pack, and in a comfortable, stalking rhythm. Fierceness is also essentially a free-runner, with a "light" mouth, and as such performs best when his rider allows him to dictate his own rhythm and pace. That is why, for example, Johnny V was not at all responsible for his loss in the Breeders' Cup Classic, as he is not the type of horse that a rider can take a strong hold of in order to restrain him further off of the pace, as that would discourage him. And to the great credit of both JV and Todd Pletcher, they picked up on this early on, and have done a superb job mitigating the colt's limitations, and maximizing his potential. In the Pacific Classic, despite racing on the inside, Johnny V remained cool and calm, and gave Fierceness another masterful ride. He and the colt's connections did benefit though, as none of his rivals, either intentionally or not, tightened things up significantly, or otherwise disrupted his rhythm. In fact, quite the opposite. Having tracked comfortably through much of the race, and with space around him, Fierceness displayed his trademark spurt on the final turn. And while the pan shot may suggest that he slipped though a tight opening, it was more like the red sea parting, as the embedded head-on view illustrates. If you are able to view the full head-on replay, you will find that despite racing inside, Fierceness actually enjoyed quite a comfortable trip, after the eventful few strides. A more subtle indication that we were watching the same horse as in his previous races comes :12-14 seconds into the embedded clip. When he was about to take the lead, he cocked his head to the right, as if he may have been worried about the horse outside of him. He was able to draw away from that one so quickly that it was ultimately of no practical consequence, but I would say that it implies that he hasn't suddenly developed the heart of a lion. *** Two qualities that have been crucial to Fierceness' success are his tactical speed, coupled with the separation that he produces on the final turn of his (two-turn) races. His ability to take command at that crucial stage has served him very well, particularly in his narrow win over Thorpedo Anna, and it was again on display in the Pacific Classic. A big part of the reason why that move has been such an important part of his arsenal is that it typically allows his him to take a "breather", before digging deep in an effort to fend off any late dangers. I encourage you to watch the (pan) replay of the Pacific Classic, and focus on Johnny V from around the 3/8th pole to the head of the stretch, as he was sitting like the proverbial statue. So for at least a furlong and a half, Fierceness was on cruise control, while Journalism, his only danger, was under pressure to make up ground, in an attempt to simply reach striking distance. But with all due credit to Fierceness and his rider for having produced fine efforts in the Pacific Classic, was this really an exceptionally outstanding performance, or was it at least partly a reflection of his only serious rival failing to run his best? I'm inclined to argue the latter. Despite Journalism having produced an unusually good 3yo campaign, capped by three Gr. I wins, including a Classic success in the Preakness, and never finishing worse than second, there have been some lingering questions. One of them is whether he is actually as well-suited to 10f. as he is to 8-9f. races. Yes, he was beaten in his two previous tries over 10f. by Sovereignty, a better horse. But in each race he was able to gain first-run on that one, an advantage that is typically difficult to overcome, yet lost ground late to the winner both times, and to Baeza as well, in the KY Derby. Some have suggested that he may have a tendency to loaf when in front, but I haven't seen any compelling evidence of that. And such horses typically dig in when passed, in efforts to re-engage, which we haven't seen, at least overtly, from Journalism. He also drew away from his rivals late in his first three wins. Alex Evers made this interesting comment about the kickback in the Pacific Classic: "I've photographed racing for 20 years, I've never seen kick back knock a jockeys goggles off like this." Here is a link to his supporting photos, which are typically excellent: Could that have discouraged Journalism? I suppose that it could have been an impediment, but he is such a tough and honest horse, that I would be surprised to learn that it was a meaningful factor. By contemporary standards, Journalism has also had a busy campaign, having raced a touch over once per month since March, all but one of which in Grade I events, and four times well away from his home base. So it is possible that he is beginning to feel the effects of those races, and travels. I have also noted that from a Beyer figure standpoint, he hasn't really moved forward, and it's worth noting that in contrast to Sovereignty and Baeza, both of which were late (May) foals, Journalism was a February foal, and may not have had quite as much room to improve. I don't know why he lagged so far behind in the early stages of the Pacific Classic, or if there was any tactical intention behind it. I had previously suggested that it might make sense to ride him more patiently, a tactic that is sometimes adopted when there are questions about a horse staying a trip. But I didn't notice any improved late kick, so it's difficult to interpret the performance. Fierceness earned a 107 Beyer figure for his victory, slower than his best three races last year, and merely equivalent to his comeback victory in the Gr. II Alysheba at Churchill Downs, in May. That doesn't suggest that it was a particularly outstanding performance. Journalism was given a 102, which implies that the return to his home court did not catalyze any notable forward move. *** I would say that there is one relevant pattern that has emerged, namely that Fierceness has an apparent affinity for the faster, high energy return track surfaces in California. He has now contested three races in CA (Beyer): 1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile (105) 2nd Breeders' Cup Classic (111) 1st Pacific Classic (107) It's also interesting to compare the colt's first and last half-mile fractions in his effort in last year's BCC, and the PC, both contested at Del Mar over 10f.: BCC – :45 1/5 • :51 3/5 PC – :46 1/5 • :50 2/5 Predictably, he finished better in the PC, thanks to more manageable early fractions. But would a repeat of that effort be nearly sufficient to win this year's Classic? Given the various points noted above, coupled with Sovereignty's continued improvement, and seemingly bottomless stamina, I would be inclined to say no. And that's before even factoring Sierra Leone, Mindframe, Forever Young, et al, into the conversation. But setting aside all of the fine parsing, I'm happy to congratulate Repole Stable, and Fierceness' other connections, for having shipped to California, and for being rewarded with an exciting, winning effort. Assuming that the colt makes it to the Breeders' Cup Classic in good order, he should minimally add spice to the race, and who knows, perhaps even provide a serious challenge to knock Sovereignty off of his current throne.

Tinky

10,516 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

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