True North
@TNorth • 31,459 subscribers
True North is a team of investors and analysts exploring the outer edges of Bitcoin, digital credit, finance and macro economics.
Videos
The Berkshires of Bitcoin | True North Podcast | Ep. 80 Featuring Jeff Walton, Joe Burnett, MSBA, and Adam Livingston. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:27 Episode Overview: Market close, balance sheets, Berkshire, derivatives 05:47 Meet the Crew: Adam Livingston joins Strive 11:29 Strategy $MSTR Balance Sheet: $BTC holdings, cash, converts, $STRC buybacks 15:23 Strive Balance Sheet: $ASST $SATA, dividend coverage, warrants, amplification 26:13 Risk Management and Volatility: Four-year cycle, drawdowns, credit flows 29:09 Traditional Credit vs. Digital Credit: Probability of outcomes, tail risk 40:35 Berkshire Hathaway Parallels: Capital, insurance float, risk taking 51:39 Strategy vs. Berkshire: Float growth, digital credit engine 58:55 Derivatives Market: ASST warrants, options open interest 1:04:26 MSTR and $IBIT Options: Open interest, hedging, liquidity 1:08:02 STRC Options Market: Puts, strikes, yield enhancement 1:15:01 Final Thoughts
True North75,919 просмотров • 2 дней назад
He warns that many Bitcoiners aren’t mentally equipped for what’s coming next. BRITISH HODL joins Joe Burnett, MSBA on The Income Show to discuss why Bitcoin became "boring", ETF investors becoming the real diamond hands, BlackRock’s $BTC strategy, self-custody, digital credit, Bitcoin-backed savings accounts, and borrowing against Bitcoin without selling. Timestamps 0:00 - Intro 1:19 - From Real Estate and Gold to Bitcoin 5:03 - Bitcoin as the Investment Hurdle Rate 7:07 - What Holds Back Bitcoin Adoption? 9:55 - Interest Rates, Debt and Global Liquidity 14:49 - Does the ISM PMI Still Matter for Bitcoin? 17:19 - Gold, AI and Why Bitcoin Became Boring 24:20 - BlackRock, IBIT and In-Kind Conversions 34:50 - Self-Custody vs. Bitcoin ETFs 38:35 - Plugging Bitcoin Into Global Finance 42:05 - Digital Credit, $SATA and $STRC 44:42 - Could Bitcoin Power High-Yield Savings Accounts? 50:22 - Bitcoin Purists, Borrowing and Generational Wealth 58:15 - Closing Thoughts
True North48,862 просмотров • 9 дней назад
What happens to Strategy if someone shorts $10 billion of STRC at 100? Michael Saylor was asked whether the company should squeeze the shorts instead. He ran the arithmetic the other way. "So we're not trying to discourage short selling." "If someone wants to short $10 billion of this thing when it hits 100, then we will have $10 billion of credit and someone else will be paying 12% interest on their 10 billion." "And so you can see someone else will be paying $1.2 billion of dividends to make STRC a $20 billion AUM instrument." "And we're not going to worry about how someone might view it if they're a short seller one way or the other." Take apart the last step if you can: does $10 billion of shorts really carry through to a $20 billion instrument, or does it break before it gets there? $MSTR $STRC
True North57,273 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
A viewer asked when $MSTR goes back to its peak price. Jeff Walton does not give a date. However a scenario. If 1 million Bitcoin ever sits on that balance sheet at $500,000 a coin, that's $500 billion, and the portion at risk is small next to what banks and Berkshire carry. Once that much Bitcoin is on Strategy's balance sheet, no company can buy its way past it. That's the moat. bitcoin:native $STRC
True North31,078 просмотров • 22 дней назад
Strategy x True North Interview: A cutting-edge conversation about the future of Strategy with the CEO, Phong Le. 00:21 – Welcome 03:24 – Bitcoin-backed credit: reinventing capital markets 06:13 – Robinhood listing prefs 10:00 – Scaling prefs to a $30–300B market 15:33 – Cultural movement around Strategy 20:20 – Bitcoin opens doors 25:57 – Strategy’s software business 30:39 – The 2030 vision 36:22 – Bitcoin treasury ecosystem 40:25 – Bitcoin in traditional banks 47:08 – Buying Bitcoin with your bank 50:59 – Why Strategy 54:07 – Closing thoughts
True North357,826 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад
Lyn Alden made her call on $STRC the day it was announced. She was on Strategy's $MSTR earnings call, front row, and posted her take right after: this would be their most successful preferred. "It ended up being, so far, the most successful preferred in the world in terms of market cap and investor demand." - Lyn Alden
True North25,683 просмотров • 25 дней назад
The Income Show | Ep. 17 ft. Lyn Alden Our host Joe Burnett, MSBA sits down with Lyn Alden to discuss Treasury buybacks and yield curve control, the path toward financial repression, Bitcoin’s role as money and a protocol of value, why gold has recently outperformed bitcoin:native, the valuation and leverage risks of digital credit, and whether AI-driven abundance could eliminate the need for money.
True North25,514 просмотров • 26 дней назад
55 years ago today, Nixon “temporarily” suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, the Nixon Shock. Since then: M2 Supply: $685B → $23.2T U.S. debt: ~$400B → ~$39.8T Nothing is more permanent than a government measure labeled “temporary.” 38 years later, Bitcoin arrived. 21 million. No more.
True North36,254 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Strive $ASST has roughly $718 million of warrants outstanding at a $27 exercise price. If exercised, that capital comes directly onto Strive’s balance sheet and creates another opportunity to acquire Bitcoin. At roughly $80,000-$85,000 per Bitcoin, full exercise could translate to more than 8,000 additional $BTC. The tradeoff is amplification: more common shares are issued, but Strive receives hundreds of millions in new capital to put to work. The “warrant wall” could become a major source of capital for the next stage of Strive’s Bitcoin strategy.
True North14,507 просмотров • 15 дней назад
Strategy can never sell its Bitcoin, so the $55 billion is worth nothing, so the dividends fail, so the credit is zero, so the equity is zero. Michael Saylor walked through that argument on Diary of a CEO and then took it apart. His math on the show: Bitcoin trades about $20 billion a day, and meeting all of Strategy's obligations would be 0.01% of that market. Then Strategy sold some anyway. "We sold some Bitcoin a few weeks ago because there was a narrative that we could never sell." "No one believed us. If you want people to believe that you can do a thing, you have to do the thing." His close: "We're commercializing the market in digital credit." $MSTR bitcoin:native
True North37,014 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Bitcoin’s 4-year CAGR was roughly 41% as of September 8. Jeff breaks down what different growth rates could imply by Sept. 2030: - 41% CAGR: ~$308,000 - 30% CAGR: ~$222,000 - 20% CAGR: ~$161,000 Even the 20% scenario puts $BTC only about 27% above its previous all-time high. His view is that if you’re underwriting Bitcoin to a high long-term CAGR, periods near the 200-week moving average are where you want the most exposure your risk framework allows. “You would want to be maximally long, maximally amplified to the extent that the market allowed.” - Jeff Walton
True North11,289 просмотров • 14 дней назад
Heading to Bitcoin 2026 in Vegas? Join us for the True North Networking Event on Tues, April 28 at the Gatsby Cocktail Lounge inside Resorts World. Connect with founders, investors, and builders during one of the biggest weeks in Bitcoin. Get tickets here:
True North58,697 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Dear $MSTR Haters, Watch this clip. Best, Adam Livingston Jeff Walton
True North37,961 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
The Income Show | Ep. 8 ft. Jesse Myers Our host Joe Burnett, MSBA sits down with Jesse Myers on the recent shakeout in digital credit, where bitcoin:native sentiment and the 4 year cycle stand today, and why he sees Bitcoin accelerating toward becoming the world's dominant form of long term capital.
True North29,928 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
The Income Show | Ep. 16 ft. Jessy Gilger, CFP Our host Joe Burnett, MSBA sits down with Jessy to discuss navigating Bitcoin drawdowns, whether the four-year cycle still matters, self-custody vs. ETFs, why cash flow should come before buying $BTC, perpetual preferred equity $STRC, and why Bitcoin can win while $MSTR could still fail.
True North12,481 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
What is $100 million of GPUs worth 6 years from now? Scrap metal. Grain of Salt Jeff Walton The debt raised against them still comes due as a balloon payment at the end, on an agreed amount and a growth rate. Now reverse it. 8% fixed, $15 billion of Bitcoin, and ask whether it is worth more or less in 6 or 8 years. All Bitcoiners answer that the same way. Same structure. Opposite collateral. Then Italy. Cheese producers borrowed against the cheese, a heat wave hit on Monday, and the collateral started melting in professional storage. "Jeff, do you model heat waves in Italy from melting cheese when you're writing an insurance policy?" bitcoin:native $MSTR $STRC
True North15,135 просмотров • 1 месяц назад