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@TradingVCs1,578 subscribers

a very bad 💩podcast about #VC #secondaries broken unicorns ❤️‍🩹🦄 & busted carry 📉🙈| @davemcclure @amanverjee @practicalVC

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🚀 SpaceX just filed its confidential IPO prospectus — and prediction markets say it will be June 3rd, Elon Musk's birthday, during a rare 6-planet alignment. Anthropic is on a generational heater — Opus 4.6, Cowork, enterprise momentum — while OpenAI cuts Sora and kills the Disney deal trying to find focus. Prediction markets now say Anthropic IPOs first, 60/40 chance. In Episode 29 of Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee reshuffle the Private Mag7 – Anthropic jumps, OpenAI slides. Shield AI breaks into the conversation after closing at a $12.7B valuation Jeff Bezos announces a $100B AI manufacturing fund — and Dave says it's 100% getting raised, probably oversubscribed. A breakdown of the Meta/YouTube social media addiction verdict that spooked the entire tech sector. Plus a deep dive with Shri, COO of Sydecar, on how SPVs are becoming a permanent part of every investor's toolkit — and why layered SPVs aren't always the villain people think they are. Timestamps: 00:00 — cold open 00:49 — [ tech and vc news ] 00:49 — #7 of private Mag7 02:21 — Iran war end when 03:35 — Why June for SpaceX IPO 05:34 — First to go public: Anthropic or OpenAI 10:23 — Bezos seeks $100B 14:02 — Meta & YouTube found liable 19:12 — Ex-Kalshi launch 5cc 21:27 — [ intvw: Shri Bhashyam @ Sydecar] 21:52 — Forge ➡️ EquityZen 24:22 — SPV secondaries vs primaries 29:04 — Trajectory to $4B AUA 41:40 — SPV fee structure warning 51:05 — DEAL act to set privates free 54:50 — [ valuation corner: Shield AI @ $12.7B ] 55:59 — Shield AI marvel story 56:40 — What Shield AI does 57:41 — Anduril Industries playbook 1:01:04 — Future of defense tech 1:02:02 — second takes

trading places

16,473 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Episode 18 of the @TradingPlacesPod featuring James Riney from Coral Capital is out now! This week: Dave McClure and Aman Verjee kick off 2026 with their macroeconomic predictions (GDP growth, Fed rate cuts, and tax refunds), break down the IPO market outlook (SpaceX at $1.6T?!, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks), and dive deep into the secondary market dynamics for companies that won't go public in 2026. Plus, we explore the private Mag 7 vs. public Mag 7 in our [valuation corner] to answer the big question: where would you rather be—public or private markets? Then, Dave sits down with James Riney🐠Coral Capital, founder and managing partner of Coral Capital in Tokyo, Japan. James shares how he went from J.P. Morgan to founding one of Japan's largest crypto exchanges (Coin Check) to launching 500 Startups Japan (now Coral Capital) at age 26. They discuss Japan's explosive VC growth (from $700M to $7-10B annually), the rise of "hidden unicorns" (companies that IPO'd before hitting $1B), why secondaries weren't a thing in Japan until recently, and Coral's massive $100M secondary sale in SmartHR—the largest secondary exit ever in Japan that returned 6X on their fund while still holding half their stake. [ timestamps ] 00:00 – cold open 01:07 – [ tech & vc news ] 01:29 – macro growth picture 🖼️ 07:40 – 2026 IPO predictions 🔮 10:24 – 2ndry market game plan 🏈 16:43 – NVIDIA gives Groq Inc $20B 💰 22:00 – SoftBank buys DigitalBridge $4B 🌉 23:01 – Google acquires Intersect $4.75B 💸 25:42 – Meta hands Manus $2B 👋 27:25 – hot IPO Market in China 31:35 – [ intvw: James Riney / Coral Capital ] 31:46 – $100M 2ndry sale of SmartHR 🧠 34:44 – Japanese founding story 🏯 36:15 – Japan startup scene 🇯🇵 41:35 – Coral Capital strategy 🪸 43:54 – China vs Japan vs USA 🌏 1:13:59 – [ val corner: mag7 public vs private ] 1:13:59 – public mag7 analysis 🔔 1:18:38 – Tesla Elon Musk magic 🪄 1:22:00 – private mag7 deep dive 🕵️ 1:27:10 – 2026 2ndry strategy 🧐 1:30:51 – second takes Pod highlights this week: -2026 macro setup is strong: 4% GDP growth, Fed quantitative easing starting, and the biggest tax refunds ever hitting Q1 (tips, social security, overtime exemptions) -IPO predictions: SpaceX targeting $1.6T valuation, OpenAI and Anthropic likely to go public, plus Databricks, Stripe, Canva, Kraken in the mix -Private market reality check: top 10 AI companies getting all the attention, but the real secondary opportunities are in the next 200-300 companies trading at discounts -Nvidia's shopping spree: $20B for Groq (talent + inference tech), $100B in annual free cash flow to deploy—expect more acquisitions -Japan VC market exploded: from $700M (2015) to $7-10B today, with companies IPO'ing at series B/C stage instead of staying private for 12 years -SmartHR secondary: Coral Capital's $100M sale to General Atlantic = largest secondary in Japan history, 6X return on fund, still holding half their stake for the IPO -Hidden unicorns in Japan: 42+ companies hit $1B valuation within 12 years but were already public—so they don't count in "unicorn" stats (definition = private company) -Why secondaries are new in Japan: companies used to IPO at $60M revenue (series B/C stage), so no need for secondary liquidity—but now top companies raising $100M+ private rounds and staying private longer -Valuation corner showdown: Public Mag 7 trading at 7-10X revenue with profits; Private Mag 7 top tier (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) at 20-30X revenue with no profits—priced for perfection -Dave's take: avoid the froth at the top (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX), hunt for value in second-tier private companies (Canva at 7X revenue, Databricks at 20X revenue) trading at discounts outside organized tender windows -James Riney's journey: from 26-year-old startup founder to launching 500 Startups Japan (now Coral Capital) to closing the largest secondary in Japanese VC history -US-Japan partnership thesis: Japan is the largest foreign investor in the US ($500B+), critical manufacturing ally in the China pullback, and Coral Capital now investing in US companies that can win Japan

trading places

23,748 次观看 • 4 个月前

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Episode 11 of the [trading places] podcast featuring Daniel Blake from UI Charitable is out now! This week: the IRS as your secret secondary buyer, donor-advised fund (DAF) strategies that turn illiquid assets into tax savings, and the wild world of prediction markets—where Polymarket and Kalshi are coming for DraftKings' and FanDuel's lunch money. Timestamps: - Intro - Tech VC secondary news - Big tech selloff? - OpenAI / Amazon deal - Anthropic leaks revenue numbers - Charles Schwab Corp acquires Forge - IPOs: Beta Technologies, BillionToOne - Ripple raises $500M @ $40B valuation - Metropolis raises $1.6B - David Sacks a16z interview - Interview: Daniel Blake, UI Charitable - UI Charitable = tax-efficient impact philanthropy - What is a Donor Advised Fund (DAF)? - Founder journey / acquisition - Donating illiquid assets (startups, VC funds) - Fair Market Value (FMV) and tax deductions - Donating crypto / bitcoin / digital assets - Val Corner: Prediction Markets - PVC SPV: Helm.ai Highlights: • Daniel Blake explains why donating appreciated stock beats cash—and how you can reset your cost basis while earning tax deductions. • The IRS as your secondary buyer: fair market value appraisals on 2021-era valuations can generate 30–50¢ on the dollar in tax savings. • Charitable UI accepts everything: S-corps, carried interest, crypto, even your hobby farm greenhouse. • Schwab pays a 75% premium for Forge Global at $660M—the third major secondary platform acquisition after Goldman/Industry Ventures and Morgan Stanley/EquityZen. • Aman Verjee on how Polymarket ($9B) and Kalshi ($5B) are positioning to eat DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s $45B+ sports-betting duopoly. • Dave McClure's hot take: donate your worst illiquid assets (2020–21 vintage anyone?) before values drop further—capture the tax savings now. • PVC SPV: Co-invest with Practical Venture Capital in Helm.ai —the AI autonomous driving software democratizing Full Self-Driving (FSD) for every automaker not named Tesla or Waymo. DISCLAIMER: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed should be construed as investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

trading places

11,936 次观看 • 6 个月前

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🎙️ Episode 10 of [trading places] featuring Rick Baker from Blackbird Ventures is out now. This week on trading places, hosts Dave McClure and Aman Verjee cover the latest tech news, including OpenAI's path to a trillion-dollar IPO, Big Tech's massive AI spending spree, and Tether's $500 billion valuation. Plus, we sit down with Rick Baker, Managing Partner at Blackbird Venture Capital, to discuss the incredible Canva story, secondary transactions, and building Australia's venture ecosystem from the ground up. 📰 THIS WEEK'S NEWS 🤖 OpenAI's IPO Plans -Potential $1 trillion IPO target -Microsoft ownership restructure (49% → 27%) -California AG blesses for-profit transition -Sam Altman hints at revenue north of $100B 💰 Big Tech AI Spending -Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta spending $125B/quarter on AI infrastructure -Meta raises $30B in corporate bonds -Oracle raises $38B for data center expansion -Power constraints emerging as key bottleneck 📈 Secondary Market Consolidation -Morgan Stanley acquires EquityZen -Goldman Sachs acquired Industry Ventures -Signals expansion of secondary market opportunities 🚀 IPO & Funding News -Navan's challenging IPO (down 20% on day one) -Mer raises $350M Series C at $10B valuation (5x step-up) -Securitize going public via SPAC at $1.2B valuation 🪙 Stablecoin Market - considering $500B valuation round -Coinbase 🛡️ reportedly pursuing $2B acquisition of BVNK -Stablecoin revenue growing 300M+ per quarter 🎙️ FEATURED GUEST: RICK BAKER, MANAGING PARTNER @ BLACKBIRD VENTURES The Canva Story -Rick shares the incredible journey of Blackbird's investment in Canva—from a $250K seed investment to a company now valued at $40B. -GP-Led Secondary Transactions -Rick walks through Blackbird's 2019 secondary sale: -Sold ~$120M (1/3 of Fund I) at 93% of NAV -Returned 3.5x to LPs while maintaining 9.5x exposure -Used Lazard to run a competitive process -StepStone + Australian super fund won the bid Managing Concentration Risk -Owned 15% of Canva at peak, now ~11% -Balance between maximizing returns and managing risk -LP perspectives range from "sell everything" to "hold forever" -Strategic sales during primary rounds to unlock growth capital Australian VC Ecosystem -Superannuation system: 12% of salary mandated into pension funds -$4T AUD pool of long-term capital -Reset after GFC: Blackbird, Square Peg, Airtree, Main Sequence -Circle of life: Atlassian/Canva alumni starting next wave 💎 VALUATION CORNER: TETHER @ $500 BILLION -Deep Dive on Tether -Aman analyzes whether the world's largest stablecoin issuer is worth a $500B valuation: -$13B+ in annual profit (2x BlackRock's profitability) -75% market share vs. Circle's 20% -36x P/E ratio vs. Circle at 240x -Medium transparency, aggressive reserve policy -Regulatory uncertainty in U.S. market 0:00 - Intro 01:12 -[ tech & vc news ] 01:21 - OpenAI Restructuring | $1T IPO? 08:24 - Big Tech Hyperscalers' Earnings and $125 Billion in Quarterly AI Spending 10:47 - Why This AI Boom is Different 15:58 - Morgan Stanley Acquires EquityZen 17:39 - Navan's Public Offering Performance 21:05 - Mercor Raises at a $10 Billion Valuation 22:23 - Securitize Going Public via SPAC ($1.25B) 24:37 - Tether's $500B Valuation Rumor 28:05 - [ interview: blackbird vc / rick baker ] 28:49 - Rick Baker's Background and Founding the MLC Venture Program 35:56 - The Canva Story 45:06 - The Australian Venture Capital Market 01:07:44 - How the Secondary Market Solves the Liquidity Problem 01:15:48 - [ valuation corner: tether] 01:13:30 - Tether's Aggressive vs. $CIRC’s Conservative Reserve Policy 01:16:32 - Calculating Tether's Valuation Based on P/E 01:24:00 - The Regulatory Uncertainty for Stablecoins 01:31:30 - Final Thoughts on Tether's $500B Valuation & Stablecoin Market DISCLAIMER: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed should be construed as investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

trading places

11,519 次观看 • 7 个月前

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