Trevor Rose
@trevor_rose_ • 4,333 subscribers
Long form energy & finance host 2x/month: https://t.co/GTFmNjB3T9
Videos
Straight of Hormuz: "If the US loses the Straits of Hormuz, this is a game-changer on epic proportions." "It's not only the end of globalization, it's the end of Bretton Woods." "You lose the exorbitant privilege. The cost of funding in the United States is gonna go up." "And so if the US now breaks that grand bargain - the dollar is no longer dominant, and this starts to raise the cost of funding to the Americans." • Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (Jeff Currie) - Special Advisor, Carlyle
Trevor Rose85,679 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Oil Price Cycles: "...In the 1970s oil prices surged from $2.50 to $30, and natural gas prices jumped from $.30 cents to $15..." "...When the commodity boom busted in 1981 - I had a fairly leveraged balance sheet..." "...It taught me cyclicality in resources... When operating margins in extractive activities across the board are 50% - you gotta start being a seller...." "...And the other side of that is when commodities that are necessary to the material wellbeing of humankind - are priced at a level where the industry selling price is below the industry average cost of production...you gotta be a buyer..."
Trevor Rose87,746 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Portfolio at $100 Oil: "We own 11 names. Our main fund is $1.82 billion as of right now" "What you wanna own at $80 is the same as what you wanna own at $90, $100, $110" "We wanna own companies with long-dated reserves 'cause if you have an inventory problem, you can't use your free cash flow for buybacks" "We want oil over gas. We generally want Canada over the United States" "We want management teams that agree with our philosophy, where share buybacks remain the path to continue to re-rate valuations" •Ninepoint PM Eric Nuttall
Trevor Rose69,174 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
$200 Oil: "Even if the Strait fully opened up tomorrow, because of voyage time, and SPR releases" "We're gonna have all-time low oil inventories" "The only way to fix the imbalance, because it's the biggest imbalance by several orders of magnitude, is you've got to tremendously reduce demand" "So do we do it at $100 WTI, $110 Brent?" "No, we do not. We we need a meaningfully higher oil price" •Ninepoint PM Eric Nuttall
Trevor Rose55,455 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
$80-$100 Oil Floor: "We think a $70-$80 base floor is reasonable now" "Plus you need to add on a political risk premium of $10-$20" "So we think $80-$100 for the next couple of years is pretty reasonable" "It's gonna take a lot of time to repair the damage that is being done in real time" •Ninepoint PM Eric Nuttall
Trevor Rose54,973 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
Europe's Jet Fuel Crisis: "I have a trip with my family booked to Italy in June, and I told my wife a month ago. I said, look we're 50/50" "You've seen now IATA which is the travel authority in Europe say, look we've got 6 weeks of jet fuel left" "You've got 2 markets for oil - the physical and the financial" "The ratio a couple years ago would've been about 30 to 1. Then it got to 50, about 2 years ago" "As of right now it's 83 to 1" •Ninepoint PM Eric Nuttall
Trevor Rose39,876 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
$83 Crack Spreads: "Take the gross product value of a 3-2-1 crack spread: 1/3 diesel, 2/3 gasoline. They're sitting near all-time highs right now. "There was a day or 2 a week or 2 ago we were $83 on that crack spread. It's more than the price of crude." "That tells you there's not enough refineries out there." "There's no strategic reserves for a lot of these commodities that are being hit right now." • Jeff Currie Special Advisor, Carlyle Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ *Full episode out tomorrow*
Trevor Rose13,387 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
20,000 Bbl/d Yemen Wells: "Here's a quick funny story on Yemen as an example. We were drilling vertical wells. Think about today's technology — having to drill 4,000 or 5,000 meter laterals just to get 1,000 barrels a day out of a well." "In Yemen, if we didn't get 15 to 20,000 barrels a day of light oil production out of a vertical well, we saw that as a miss. When we hit 20,000 barrels a day in a new well, it was steak dinner night in the field." "It just gives you perspective on the scale. We had a 250,000 barrel a day operation going there, and at the time our project alone was 40% of the country's GDP." •Outwest Energy CEO Mike Backus
Trevor Rose28,627 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
Oilsands 5.9x Cash Flow: "We would own 2 Canadian oilsand companies where they're trading at 5.9x cashflow" "12-13% free cashflow yields, unbelievably strong debt. One of them could be debt free by the end of this year" "We've got one position in the Clearwater...the stock's gone on from $3-$12" "The primary wells were paying out in a month and a half" •Ninepoint PM Eric Nuttall
Trevor Rose28,036 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
10M Barrels Off Market: "10 million barrels a day is still a huge number that's cut off from the market. We're absorbing it with oil on water, drawing down commercial inventories, and pulling from SPR inventories." "We can do that for another month or two, but at some point the gears start to grind on each other. We're gonna hit tank bottoms or the effective tank bottoms." "All of those different routes for crude export are buying you some time. It's just not clear to me how much time it's buying you." "If we got to shut down a bunch of demand, that's a dramatically high price — $125, $150, I don't know what the number is — but it isn't $89, which is where we're sitting today." •PEP CIO Dan Pickering
Trevor Rose18,768 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
“…When we started in this - we had 2000 rigs running in this country..." “…Over 1000 rigs drilling for gas - now that's closer to 120..." "...We had 2000 rigs running and we were producing - maybe 1/3 of the energy we're producing today as a country…” "...Now we're at record amounts of oil and gas production - and we're doing all that with 600 rigs..." "...In this industry what we've shown since 2010 till today - is a 21-fold increase in the productivity per rig..."
Trevor Rose32,251 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Permian Hits 6M Bbl/d: "That world's largest uneconomic oil field now became the world's largest economic oil field in 15 short years" "The history of the shale revolution will be studied for a long time" "Just think where we'd be in this geopolitical conflict if the Permian Basin wasn't producing 6 million barrels a day" "And the US wasn't producing 13.5 million barrels a day" "I think those pioneers should be very proud of what they've done for this business, and this country" •$FANG CEO Kaes Van't Hof
Trevor Rose19,218 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
$CVE.TO Cheap at 1.6x: "Cenovus trades at around 1.6 times their capital base" "The company was generating about 35% free cash flow yield relative to its capital base." "A business producing a sustainable 35% return on capital doesn’t trade at just 2 times capital long-term." "It typically commands multiples of 4-6 times capital or higher, making the current valuation look attractive." •Cole Smead - CEO, Smead Capital Management
Trevor Rose13,450 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
$FANG: "...At $60 oil Diamondback still generates almost $5 billion of free cash flow a year..." "...We can use that free cash to buy back shares, pay down debt and get through this. Whereas in the past - when oil prices cycled down - you had companies either issue equity - or have to cut a bunch of Capex to be able to pay down debt..." "...Well you know here we are trying to buy back shares through whatever trough this is..." "...I think we can try to take some volatility out of the business by being able to repurchase shares through the lows - and I think that gets rewarded long term..."
Trevor Rose31,409 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
$FANG Drill Speeds: "When I was running the Bison Drilling company - drilling a vertical well in 15 days was a win" "Today we're drilling that same vertical - plus 10,000 feet of horizontal in 4 days" "I can't wait to see the first 1 day well" "It's pretty impressive the amount of efficiencies, and the amount of costs the team has been able to drive out of the business" •FANG CEO Kaes Van't Hof
Trevor Rose18,367 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
Trump Jawboning Delays Oil Spike: "I think you're getting distortions in the market. You're getting jawboning by Donald Trump" "It's suppressing the price, and it's very dangerous because the market needs a price signal to start rationing demand" "And because we're not getting that price signal" "It means that the spike that is coming is much higher than what we would've had" •Ninepoint PM Eric Nuttall
Trevor Rose13,846 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
Building TMX: "We had 153 conditions we had to meet" "We micro-tunneled. We brought in special equipment from Europe that we would build pits and then micro-tunnel to another location and then progressively go through that plateau to eliminate the risk of any disturbance" "We originally projected to do 40 - 50 trenchless crossings, and we ended up doing hundreds and hundreds of them" "Protection of salmon habitat, and fishing habitat led us to trench under more streams and rivers by a wide margin - than we originally envisioned"
Trevor Rose16,276 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад
Canadian Energy Surplus: "Canada's an energy surplus country." "We have so much opportunity here, and we've squandered it for a decade, and we now have a big opportunity in front of us." "And that's what makes me excited about the future for our portfolio." "So it's not just we've owned it, and we've done well, and that's it." "I think there's much more to come." •Newhaven Asset Management CEO Ryan Bushell
Trevor Rose12,452 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
$WCP "...The 3 pillars of sustainability I call it is #1 your decline rate, #2 your cash flow netback - how much cash you're getting out of the resources you're developing - and then #3 your capital efficiencies - how much capital it takes to develop more resources..." "...So if you put in all that mix - somewhere in the neighborhood of maybe between 18% - 22%, or 24% of your cash flow can go back to your shareholders..." "...Giving it back to your shareholders in the form of a dividend - obviously you're gonna reduce your growth rate because you're not putting that capital back in the ground - but I think that works in an overall basis..." "...And that's how we've been running the company - not only when we started - but back to the Catch group of companies..."
Trevor Rose15,571 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад