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Triple Net Investor

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Breaking down markets, stocks & real estate. Conversations w/ top investors & business leaders. Equity investor | RE entrepreneur | ex–IB

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JUST IN: Chamath Palihapitiya makes a big claim that Warren Buffett’s insane pre 2000 returns may have benefited from access to information asymmetry not available to the public Here's what he had to say: "In 2000, we introduced the law called Reg FD. And what was the point of Reg FD? It was basically that if you're a CFO, you cannot talk to an individual stock manager and tell him something that you then don't tell everybody else. Essentially inside information. That used to be not illegal. I won't say that it was legal. I would just say that used to be not illegal. You call your CFO buddy, he says, "hey, how you doing?" He goes, man, "Quarter was a blockbuster." You would go and buy the stock. And starting in the 2000s, it became illegal. And there used to be these networks of information arbitrage that took advantage of this. Now, this is an example of Warren Buffett's returns, pre and post Reg FD. Now, what do you see? His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal. And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha. In fact, he probably on the margins lost a little bit. So this is the single best investor in the world. This is what happens when you have information symmetry. So it's just meant to explain that markets when there's asymmetry. Billions and billions of dollars will be made in asymmetry. The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, will look like the stock market pre-Reg FD."

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1,307,260 次观看 • 4 个月前

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Warren Buffett thoughtfully explains why investing in stocks/equities is better than real estate, during Berkshire's latest annual meeting: "In respect to real estate, it's so much harder than stocks in terms of negotiation of deals, time spent, the involvement of multiple parties in the ownership. Usually when real estate gets in trouble, you find out you're dealing with more than equity holder. But there have been times when large amounts of real estate... I've changed hands at bargain prices, but usually stocks were cheaper, but there were a lot easier to do. Charlie did more real estate. Charlie enjoyed real estate transactions, and he actually did a fair number of them in the last five years of his life. But he was playing a game that was an interesting game to him. But I think if you'd asked him to make a choice when he was 21, he'd either be in stocks exclusively the rest of his life or real estate the rest of his life. He would have chosen stocks in a second. There's just so much more opportunity, at least in the United States. There's so much more opportunity that presents itself in the security market than it does in real estate and in real estate. You're usually dealing with a single owner or a family that owns maybe a large property they've had a long time. Maybe they've borrowed too much money against them. Maybe the population trends are against them. But to them, it's an enormous... When you walk down to the New York Stock Exchange, you can do billions of dollars worth of business totally anonymous, and you can do it in five minutes. And the trades are complete when they're complete. In real estate, when you make a deal, a big deal with a distressed lender, when you sign the deal, then you go into another phase. Then people start negotiating more things and more things. It's a whole different game. And a different type of person, to some extent, enjoys the game. We did a few real estate deals that came our way in 2008 and 2009, but the amount of time that they would take us compared to doing something intelligent and probably better in securities, there was just no comparison. I mean, in a real estate deal, every sentence is important. In stocks, if somebody needs to sell 20,000 shares of Berkshire or something and they call us and the price is right, it's done in five seconds. And it closes all the time."

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1,038,253 次观看 • 1 年前

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Barry Sternlicht gives an insightful view about the challenges of real estate right now - and how to still make a lot of money in the current environment Here's what he said: "I think people, as they always do, tend to look in the rear view mirror and they look at a suboptimal performance of the real estate asset class across the last 3-4 years. Nvidia goes up a trillion dollars in four months. Like the hot kids on the block are everything AI, everything chatbot, etc... There are meme stocks that go from zero to $7 a share on a tweet. Crypto - there's worthless coins with $20+ billion dollar market caps. There's a coin called Useless. It's [literally] useless. It debuted in March 2025 and it went to a $700 million value. And the coin says "we are completely useless" In real estate people get rich but it's boring. You get rich holding on to it over long periods of time. It's not a day trading asset. The country right now is very impatient. So people want to play the hot thing. Real estate looks sort of sad in your portfolio right now. The only thing it beats is treasuries. And even then, it's not even beaten that. But you'll do well picking properties in the right cities... Everything is micro in real estate. For example, I built a building in South Beach. The first lease was $54. It's on the beach, and nobody built a new office building in 20+ years. We leased it up in the pandemic. It's 100% leased. A tenant actually needs to grow, and they called us last week. They're paying $125 and we'll re-lease it at $175. I mean, you can still make a lot of money if you get the micro market right."

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128,360 次观看 • 3 个月前

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Warren Buffett shares what he would do if he had to start investing again w/ just $1 million Here was his valuable/timeless advice: "With just a million dollars, you could earn 50% a year... I don't know what the equivalent of Moody's manuals or anything would be now, but I would try and know everything about everything small, and I would find [opportunities]. But you have to be in love with the subject. You can't just be in love with the money. You've really got to just find [the opportunity]. People find other things in other fields because they love looking for them. A biologist looks for something because they want to find something. I don't know how the human brain works that much. I don't think anybody understands too well how the human brain works. But there's different people that just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area. I've had the luck of meeting a lot of people that are unbelievably smart in their own arena and do some unbelievably dumb things in other areas. So all I know is the human brain is complicated. But it does its best when you find out what your brain is really suited for, and then you just pound the heII out of it from that point. And that's what I would be doing if I had a small amount of money and I wanted to make 50% a year. But I also wanted to just play the game. And you can't do it if you don't find the game interesting, whether it's bridge or chess or in this case, finding securities that are undervalued."

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285,541 次观看 • 1 年前

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From 2002-2012, John Arnold's fund compounded at a STAGGERING 100%+ annually In 06 alone, it famously made 300%+ In 07, at just 32, he became the youngest billionaire Here's how he did it: "At the time when Enron went down, Enron was the largest natural gas trader. I was the head trader at Enron. And so I had a very big reputation in the business. New York Times wrote a story in early 2002, talking about the amount of money that my trading book had made in 2001, which was in excess of $600 million. And so all of a sudden, it kind of validated me externally. And so I started getting a lot of calls from people saying, Enron went down. There must be a lot of opportunity in this space. Can we invest with you? And second quarter of 2002, there starts to be a new scandal hitting the papers on Enron almost every week including on the power trading side. And so that was a very different operation than what I was doing, but it was close enough to where all the potential investors kind of stopped calling me back. Because they don't know what's going on. They don't know if my track record was real or not. They don't know if I'm going to be tied up in court proceedings for years.... When I got started in the summer of 2002, I had $8 million from 3 investors one of which was me... From 2002 to 2012, we compounded over 10 years 100%+ a year on average. We had some years that were 300%, had one year that was pretty much flat, but on average. 100% a year..." Absolutely STUNNING

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82,544 次观看 • 4 个月前

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This is John Arnold, the best trader you've probably never heard of Starting w/ just $8M, he grew his fund to ~$5B before retiring at 38 From 2002 - 2012, his fund compounded 100%+ a year 🤯 In 06 alone, they famously made 300%+ In 07, he became the youngest billionaire at age 32 Here's his story: "At the time when Enron went down, Enron was the largest natural gas trader. I was the head trader at Enron. And so I had a very big reputation in the business. New York Times wrote a story in early 2002, talking about the amount of money that my trading book had made in 2001, which was in excess of $600 million. And so all of a sudden, it kind of validated me externally. And so I started getting a lot of calls from people saying, Enron went down. There must be a lot of opportunity in this space. Can we invest with you? And second quarter of 2002, there starts to be a new scandal hitting the papers on Enron almost every week including on the power trading side. And so that was a very different operation than what I was doing, but it was close enough to where all the potential investors kind of stopped calling me back. Because they don't know what's going on. They don't know if my track record was real or not. They don't know if I'm going to be tied up in court proceedings for years.... When I got started in the summer of 2002, I had $8 million from 3 investors one of which was me... From 2002 to 2012, we compounded over 10 years 100%+ a year on average. We had some years that were 300%, had one year that was pretty much flat, but on average. 100% a year..."

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184,457 次观看 • 1 年前

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Barry Sternlicht recently went on an EPIC rant about the Fed, predicting when they'll lower rates and the challenges the US is facing "Inflation will fall below 2% as soon as the rent component catches up to the data. The question is, when will the Fed lower rates? But here's where it gets really tricky... The economy is too strong. It's too strong because of public spending. It's not too strong because of private spending. Private spending is rolling over.... Everyone's laying workers off. But the federal government's hiring them.... They're spending enough money to keep these guys employed. So the Fed keeps using this really blunt, horrible instrument 5.5% interest rates with two huge victims, because we have a $34 trillion deficit, and the debt is going to roll over. A third of our debt rolls over this year. He can pay 5.3% on it, or he can pay 3% if he lowers rates. That's $200 billion. That's a quarter of the defense budget, which is the largest component of our budget. So he has a choice. Pay $300 billion on $13 trillion, or pay $500 billion on $13 trillion. It's up to you, right? So it's 3% or 5%. So that's one problem. Second problem is the regional banks. He's blown a hole through their balance sheets. There's $1.9 trillion of real estate loans in the regional banks... there's only $800 billion in the money center banks, and he blew their banks to garbage. These banks are out of business. They can't make money offering us 5.5% CD rates. So he's gonna have the next crisis if he doesn't lower rates. It's a serious mess in the capital markets and real estate and fixed income... anything that was yield related. Will he keep rates here? Yes, unfortunately. Why? He's up for, he's leaving in January. Powell's out. He's not going to be the guy who let inflation come back... I don't think we'll get the March cut. I think the data, as soon as inflation falls below 2%, there'll be a lot of pressure on him. That might be May. So I think June, you'll see cuts. It'll become very obvious that the private sector is struggling as the consumer runs out of money... And why has this economy kept going? Not only his spending, people have jobs. And b/c they have jobs and employment rates are good, so they're spending. But they're spending money they don't have. It's not in their savings account. It's all gone. And now they're on the credit cards. [And now] Americans are willing to live on Affirm. Now we have new ways to spend money we don't have."

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334,121 次观看 • 2 年前

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Barry Sternlicht recently gave a VERY insightful interview about tariffs and what it means for real estate prices - what he said is troubling: "The promotion of American manufacturing is a great idea, but we are not a manufacturing nation... We only have 13 million jobs of 160 million in manufacturing, and we're running a 4% unemployment rate. So I'm not sure who's going to work in all these factories. We're going to need some really quick efforts from Musk and Zuckerberg in robotics to actually build, have people work in these factories. Americans don't want to do that. That's not the jobs that they're interested in taking today... I think the tariffs are super complicated... I do think the focus should be on China. We run a $250 billion trade deficit with China... China is [the] second largest economy in the world with a fixed currency. And that alone is not right. That currency should go up and down with trade flows like every other major currency. So you start there. And I don't think the tariffs are tactical. And the if you put them in place, as [Trump] just did with steel tariffs, American companies will raise prices. So it is very inflationary. And for real estate, it's really bad. [For example] we need [Canada's] lumber. Or we can chop down our own trees but it's a bad thing. We run an equal trade deficit with Canada other than oil but we use their oil... if we don't buy it, they're going to ship it to Asia. For existing owners [of real estate], it's good because to build a new building will be more expensive. So the existing office stock, the existing apartment stock is going to be worth more. But it's bad because the numbers won't work to create new [buildings]. You won't be able to build anything. We already have a four to five million unit housing shortage... And you're seeing it in the sentiment of the builders that they're nervous. Everyone's a little nervous."

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177,816 次观看 • 1 年前