Wilfred Frost
@WilfredFrost • 49,080 subscribers
Anchor of Mornings w @RidgeAndFrost @SkyNews; Contributor @CNBC @MSNowNews @NBCNews; CEO Paradine Productions; Host The Master Investor Podcast - subscribe now:
Videos
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 with Chairman of Interactive Brokers Thomas Peterffy: Worth over $100bn, he reveals the asset he is buying as the ultimate hedge - LAND. "If these things happen that I'm worried about, then I think land is the logical asset." AI RACE: "Slowing down? I mean, it's a very difficult thing because China is not going to slow down. So this is basically a competition between the two hemispheres and I'm not in favour of slowing down. I would like us to win." AI OPTIMISM: "Even if the frontier models would stop progressing at this moment, there are so many open source models all over the place and adapting them by all the other companies will result in huge increases in earnings and productivity. So I'm basically very optimistic." FED AND YIELDS: "Well, I think the Fed will probably raise rates, although as I said, I would not be in favour of that, but they will have to do it just to demonstrate that they are independent." HUGE PREDICTION MARKETS OPPORTUNITY: "These markets are going to become huge in my view. In the fullness of time, the majority of our earnings will be derived from prediction markets." OWN LAND: Revealing more of is thinking around buying land, he reflects on his upbringing in communist Hungary, when everyone's assets were seized. "So I think that the same thing may happen in America. And that is the reason that I am buying land so that after the democratic socialists take everything over and they ruin all the stuff, they will eventually find out that it doesn't work and they will have to go back to protecting people's private property and return the assets they can return. And the only assets they will be able to return will be rural land." Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:45 IBKR recent earnings 6:35 Interest rate exposure 9:10 Fed will hike…sadly 11:00 Optimistic about AI 13:10 But some AI overinvestment 14:45 US can’t slow down 17:10 Long path to prediction markets 22:30 HUGE opportunity of prediction markets 28:41 The risk from leverage 32:26 AI boosts IBKR 36:10 New bank trust charter 40:35 Buy Land – ultimate protection 45:08 Conclusion – have a plan
Wilfred Frost209,586 görüntüleme • 8 gün önce
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 Jeff Currie Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ pounds the table on owning hard assets - now & long term - in an incredibly convincing way. - Bessent intervention = financial repression - OWN GOLD - $10k target - Energy > tech - Global recession risks under-priced - watch diesel & ag Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:23 Yields rising 4:00 Bessent intervention is financial repression 7:36 OWN GOLD 13:08 Not worried about gold pullback 18:36 Energy over Tech 23:30 Watch Diesel 27:02 China buying crude again 29:23 Crude reserves low 30:19 Recession risk underpriced 34:53 “Munificent 7” 36:53 Ag commods exploding 41:22 Buy any commod pullback 44:20 Recession risk to commods? 47:00 History suggests still early for commods 49:10 Iran hugely boosts commods bull case 52:43 Bearish Bitcoin 55:28 Post Goldman - Real Macro 56:50 Conclusion - Own all commodities
Wilfred Frost203,399 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 60 minutes with JAMIE DIMON - wouldn't buy long bonds or SP500 here - "risks are bigger than people think" - "I want Andy Burnham to succeed", but Banks Levy is "wrong" - Leadership masterclass - breaking bureaucracy; overcoming insecurity; loneliness at top STOCK MARKET: "In general would I be a buyer at this price? No." BUYER OF LONG DATED BONDS? “Personally, no. I would not be a buyer and part of it is interest rates. I mean even if inflation was 2%, the 10-year bond should probably be at 4-4.5%. And the short rate should be at 3.25-3.5%. And they're almost there today. So I don't understand what the upside is, even if you think inflation going to go to 2%. But being an economic historian, I can't take out of my mind what happened after the great recession of 74. Deficits were less…And it climbed from 3.5% to 5% to 7% to 9% to 11%.” ECONOMY/MARKET RISKS: “Make a list of all those really complex long-term geopolitical tectonic plates things that affect the market or may not… I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think.” MARCH 2020 NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE: “So I knew at that point in time that there might be goodbye. Yeah.” And what stood out for you in the life that you'd led in that moment? “I remember I spoke to my wife and I told her to call their company and tell them exactly what's happening so they can do what they got to do. But the good news is I didn't have any great regrets. I would be leaving behind great children, great wife, great company. I did the best I can. Of course I made mistakes. But fortunately I recovered from all that.” ON ANDY BURNHAM: “I want him to succeed. I want to see the UK thrive. I want London to succeed. But the UK, like everybody else and like my own country…you need a strong economy to do that. So the new Chancellor going to need good policies that actually cause growth. So I'm praying that they get policy right and government after government get it wrong.” ON BANKS LEVY: “I have always thought it was wrong. JP Morgan did not damage the UK and I called the Chancellor at the time. We're a great citizen there. We hire people there. We want to be bigger there. We train people there. We hire veterans there. All of our people get medical and all that stuff like that. And I just thought it was a lack of principle to punish a company that had nothing to do with the crisis. And it's still there seventeen years later. Is that fair to a shareholder? I mean, it may sound great, 'tax the banks', but it's $5 billion that my shareholder's paid on that extra tax. And I just think things like that have adverse consequences.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:14 As good as it gets environment 3:08 Risks bigger than people expect 4:28 Resilience despite Iran 9:21 Would not buy bonds here 12:50 AI risk & opportunity 15:16 Not buyer of SP500 here 16:02 SpaceX valuation 17:45 Lessons from Financial Crisis 19:09 Don’t expect success 21:00 Loneliness of leadership 23:25 Commitment to NYC Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani 25:03 I want Andy Burnham to succeed 26:40 UK Banks Levy is wrong 29:14 Fighting bureaucracy 33:20 Character most important trait 35:26 Insecurity ruins leaders 39:46 Success is not just your own 43:15 Politics is a very tough game 47:55 Dimon’s founder-like impact & succession 51:30 Near death experience 53:05 Family 56:34 Learn, learn, learn – from history & people J.P. Morgan Chase Chase UK J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Wilfred Frost745,120 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
🚨NEW EP🚨with Ed Conway "Our degree of integration is so much greater now than ever before in history. If we were to have a breakdown in global trading system, God forbid, it would make the financial crisis look like a walk in the park because this is everything." Fantastic hour with my Sky News colleague and friend Ed Conway - where we explore his brilliant new book - TRADE WORLD - which could not be more timely. Highly recommend it. We cover: - the scale of risk the world economy & market faces if trade worsens - out current fragility & the key chokepoints on which we rely - but the resilience and ingenuity of trade middlemen who have prevented oil prices rising more - why established industries so often push back against innovation - why cotton was even more impressive than AI - why global bond yields have reached multi decade highs WW3: “You've got two serious kinetic wars happening in the Gulf and in Ukraine. And in a sense they're bleeding into each other in various different ways. It's not implausible that if things go south from here, people will look back and say this was the foothills for another world war. The thing that I'd say which is different this time around…you didn't have supply chains that genuinely bestrewed the globe back in 1914. Our degree of integration is so much greater now than ever before in history. If we were to have a kind of breakdown in global trading system, God forbid, it would make the financial crisis look like a walk in the park because this is everything. All of which is why I think and I hope that world leaders would be conscious of that as Trump and Xi are going to have their meetings. But the stakes are seriously high.” FRAGILITY: “I think we underappreciate the fragility and the dependence that we have on these systems. And you just have to look at a map. 90% of the world's products are traded and almost all of them have to pass through one or other of these choke points. It might be Malacca, it might be the Bab al-Mandab Strait that takes you into the Suez Canal, it might be the Panama Canal. A lot of the choke points are kind of in play in a way that they've never been before.” WOOL: “You think about semiconductors being the most advanced manufactured product of the day. To some extent you could say that about wool back in the kind of 13th, 14th centuries. These days when it comes to semiconductors everyone's obsessed about how many nanometres you're talking about for the different semiconductors that you're making. Back in 13th, 14th century England, the obsession was about how fine you could make wool because if you looked at European GDP at that point, the largest sector was wool and clothing manufacturing. You had food and you had wool. England was kind of totally dominant in the same way that China is these days for rare earths. Actually to the extent that in the same way that China is using rare earths as a kind of tool for negotiating trade deals as part of their economic weaponry, England was using wool as part of its economic weaponry, using it as a kind of banning different countries from getting the exports in order to try and get their way. So in some senses, what I love about that is it's reminding you that there are certain things, certain echoes that are very familiar throughout history.” COTTON: “It was probably a greater economic exponential rise than almost anything that's happened since. And there were so many consequences to this. So in the UK, I guess people would say the benign consequence in the UK was that's kind of why Britain became this free trading nation.” RESILIENCE: “But I think the other thing that I've been struck by when you're just looking at the nuts and bolts of how things get around the world is actually the resilience of this system. Think about the Strait Of Hormuz, obviously oil prices are high, but they didn't go quite as high as a lot of people had expected them to go. And to me that's the interesting thing. Partly that's because you've got pipelines that the Saudis were able to use. But partly also it's because you have this whole phenomenon now of ship to ship transfers, basically tankers going under dark of night, that has meant that actually a lot more oil has been getting out than you would have seen from the official figures. It's hard not to see it being kind of a bit inflationary, but it's still kind of reassuring. Trade doesn't just stop when a trade barrier is put in place. It adapts and it evolves – it's like water – it's very difficult to stop it from finding a level.” PROTECTIONISM NOT NEW: “Even for Adam Smith, the godfather of modern economics as he's seen, he was in favour of tariffs when it came to food security. What matters more, being able to have lots of access to cheap things, whether it's cheap cars or cheap batteries or cheap rare earths or the motors that go into drones or being able to make them yourself. And that is exactly what people were debating back in the 1800s. I think it is what people are debating these days and Donald Trump does it in a particular way, but I think the debate is mainstream now and it's a reasonable debate. And I think Europe will have to engage in it far more in the next kind of decade.” OPTIMISM: “We’ve got this amazing thing – how many generations get to live through an industrial revolution like back in the era of the Victorians. We are living through that right now. You could say we're living through two. You've got the AI revolution at the same time as the energy transition. So I think there's kind of exciting things going on which make it quite confounding when you're trying to think of the overall forecast.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:21 Why high bond yields? 8:08 QT arrives in UK 13:55 TRADE WORLD 20:03 Wool & Cotton – AI of their day 24:25 Opposition to innovation 30:56 Cotton – greater exponential growth than AI 37:10 Russia biggest exporter of grains 40:00 Protectionism not new 46:39 Fragile or Resilient global economy? 51:48 Recession chances 54:06 Foothills of WW3? 59:30 Wonders of world trade #EdConway
Wilfred Frost27,857 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce
HOLD MORE CASH - says legendary tech investor Dan Niles in this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast, just six weeks after he correctly called for a more aggressive risk-on approach at the end of March, since when Nasdaq has surged 25%. SEMIS: “So in the short term, are semis at the most overbought they've been since 2000 or 1995 before they had horrific corrections? Absolutely.” IRAN WAR: “If it going to take a lot longer for this situation at the Strait of Hormuz to get sorted out, then you're going to see stock prices collapse to catch up with where bond yields & oil prices are. I don't think that's the case. But, I'm viewing things as you should be sitting with a lot of cash.” MEGA CAP WINNER: “It's obviously Google. They have the full stack & they're the ones you should bet on...they've got everything & they've got the massive cashflow to fund it.” However, the shift to Agentic AI should sustain earnings upgrades this year, making today more like 1998 than 99/00, but be prepared for 30-50% AI trade pull-back in early 2027. We also discussed what the shift to Agentic AI means for $NVDA (not ideal), Intel $INTC (great) and $AMD (good); why concerns over $META are NOT overdone; why $AAPL fortunes should improve; why $AMZN & $MSFT are struggling short term, & why $GOOGL shines bright. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:39 Why today feels like 1998, NOT 1999/2000 05:25 Agentic AI suggests more upside to bull market 07:52 But Iran War could derail things 11:18 Agentic AI means CPU’s over GPU’s 13:35 Semis are overbought 17:51 Is shift to CPUs bad for Nvidia? 19:13 Google the standout performer 21:15 Apple leadership transition 23:45 Meta concerns not overdone 25:37 Google best placed 27:36 30-50% AI crash by early 2027 30:01 Concerns about OpenAI 34:27 Upcoming IPOs, oil, bonds signal problems 36:16 Hold more cash 37:48 Kevin Warsh a positive, but watch bonds 45:44 Conclusion: 1998 or 1999?
Wilfred Frost294,510 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 with Luke Gromen - founder of Forest For The Trees: - equities "extremely complacent" to sovereign debt risks - US, UK, Fr, Ger, Jap - "all going to break" - be un-levered, own gold, & be ready to buy the dip because... - Warsh WILL bend knee to Treasury mkt
Wilfred Frost80,285 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
![🚨NEW EP with Becky Quick: “Invest early, do it often, & let it ride, and don't worry about what's happening. To me, our job at CNBC is to educate people about what happens when you have the law of compound interest working for you.” What a joy to catch up with my dear friend Becky Quick on the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast – anchor of Squawk Box & a true titan of business journalism. We covered US-Iran peace deal; SpaceX IPO; lessons from Buffett; Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett; the beauty of the purity of markets; & her inspirational #CNBCCures. WHAT IS BUFFETT’S GENIUS?: “Patience. He & Charlie Munger have repeatedly said one of the things they're best at doing is nothing. There are a lot of people who feel like they have to act because the markets are going up & up & they have FOMO. Warren’s never had FOMO.” MUSK v BUFFETT: “Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet have both told me individually they might not buy the stock [SpaceX] but they would never bet against Elon Musk because it is a pretty risky proposition to do so.” TRUMP IRAN DEAL: “I don't know that he is nearly as focused on the midterms as most of the other elected officials in the Republican party…I think he's probably more focused on getting things done & I think he sees Iran as a particular issue that he would like to be able to say that he's brought peace there or at least cleared Iran from having the ability to have nuclear weapons. I think he probably takes that more seriously than winning the midterms.” CNBC CURES: “The idea that you're just trying to figure this out & nobody understands what you're going through. And you start to realise that if you can do something to help you should. And that was the genesis of CNBC Cures to figure out how do we connect some of these groups so that they can learn from each other and then use CNBC's platform to make sure we're getting in front of the legislators, the regulators and the investors.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 US-Iran peace deal 5:57 Iran over Mid-Terms for Trump 8:09 Buffett - don’t bet against Elon Musk 9:45 Déjà vu of late 1990s? 12:40 CNBC’s role – financial education 16:50 21 Years of Squawk Box 20:07 Purity of the markets 22:16 Lessons from Warren Buffett 26:05 Buffett’s secret – patience 30:07 CNBC Cures 40:20 Loneliness of rare disease 44:48 Investing, career and life advice](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2066899825103155458/amplify_video_thumb/2066894757599522816/img/GYcSghooNgXZS6Ch.jpg)
🚨NEW EP with Becky Quick: “Invest early, do it often, & let it ride, and don't worry about what's happening. To me, our job at CNBC is to educate people about what happens when you have the law of compound interest working for you.” What a joy to catch up with my dear friend Becky Quick on the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast – anchor of Squawk Box & a true titan of business journalism. We covered US-Iran peace deal; SpaceX IPO; lessons from Buffett; Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett; the beauty of the purity of markets; & her inspirational #CNBCCures. WHAT IS BUFFETT’S GENIUS?: “Patience. He & Charlie Munger have repeatedly said one of the things they're best at doing is nothing. There are a lot of people who feel like they have to act because the markets are going up & up & they have FOMO. Warren’s never had FOMO.” MUSK v BUFFETT: “Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet have both told me individually they might not buy the stock [SpaceX] but they would never bet against Elon Musk because it is a pretty risky proposition to do so.” TRUMP IRAN DEAL: “I don't know that he is nearly as focused on the midterms as most of the other elected officials in the Republican party…I think he's probably more focused on getting things done & I think he sees Iran as a particular issue that he would like to be able to say that he's brought peace there or at least cleared Iran from having the ability to have nuclear weapons. I think he probably takes that more seriously than winning the midterms.” CNBC CURES: “The idea that you're just trying to figure this out & nobody understands what you're going through. And you start to realise that if you can do something to help you should. And that was the genesis of CNBC Cures to figure out how do we connect some of these groups so that they can learn from each other and then use CNBC's platform to make sure we're getting in front of the legislators, the regulators and the investors.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 US-Iran peace deal 5:57 Iran over Mid-Terms for Trump 8:09 Buffett - don’t bet against Elon Musk 9:45 Déjà vu of late 1990s? 12:40 CNBC’s role – financial education 16:50 21 Years of Squawk Box 20:07 Purity of the markets 22:16 Lessons from Warren Buffett 26:05 Buffett’s secret – patience 30:07 CNBC Cures 40:20 Loneliness of rare disease 44:48 Investing, career and life advice
Wilfred Frost142,786 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
.Cathie Wood explains why she disagrees - in a friendly way - with Tom Lee Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com & favours Bitcoin over Ethereum, but is increasingly warming up to Ether & buying Bitmine. Full bonus crypto episode with Cathie here:
Wilfred Frost346,140 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 with Anthony Anthony Scaramucci: “Expect failure. If you're taking exogenous risk expect that your ass is going to get kicked. And don't be a baby about it & play the victim. When they fired me from the White House, I got torched by everybody. Did I care? No, I faced the music & never played the victim. So you got to have that mentality if you're going to take risk, if you're not comfortable with that, then don't do it.” An absolutely action packed hour with Anthony Scaramucci of career & investment advice on The Master Investor Podcast this week. We covered his more punchy early trading days taking huge short term risks; his evolution to a more careful long term investor focusing on mega trends; why he is a major believer in blockchain & specifically Bitcoin; why he owns & will hold SpaceX for the long term; his belief we will face deflation not inflation in a few years; his tips for young investors; & compelling career advice from someone who has taken big risks, had major lows, & now bigger highs. KNOW YOURSELF: “So first thing I would say to your viewers & listeners is self-awareness. Know who you are & know if you have the ability to take on the pain & the uncertainty of entrepreneurship because entrepreneurs jump off the cliff & they're trying to build the plane as they're descending to earth. You have to be able to do that.” PAY YOURSELF: “What I've been doing since the age of 17 is I've been buying stocks every month. And it could be the SP500, it could be Berkshire Hathaway, it could be Amazon. If you just take that discipline & you buy every month irrespective of where markets are & you sit back and wait five or 10 years, I think you'll be rewarded.” SPACEX & ELON MUSK: “When I have a win like SpaceX, my attitude is I'm not going to bet against Elon Musk. It's almost as if Thomas Edison got together with Henry Ford & John Rockefeller & made Elon Musk in a laboratory. He's got vision, execution skills, he's an engineer, & he's just not somebody I want to bet against. So SpaceX, I get it, I understand how expensive it is, I understand the revenues versus the market capitalization, but I believe this guy could catch up.” BITCOIN: “If you're an investor, you can't just flip off Bitcoin, you have to do the homework. And I submit to people that do the homework, nine out of 10 of them will probably own a little bit of Bitcoin. I've done the homework & I'm a believer in it. I do believe that it could trade to half of the market cap of gold, which is sort of a 10x from here over the next decade.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:35 Servant Leadership 6:30 Focus on very long term 12:37 Fear deflation more than inflation 15:57 SpaceX – long term holder 20:28 The case for blockchain & $BTC 28:12 $BTC still under-owned 31:46 Inflation vs innovation 37:31 Wall St vs Washington 40:31 Lessons from President Trump 45:26 UK too hard on itself 47:59 Take risk, expect failure
Wilfred Frost78,040 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨with Charles Schwab Corp Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders - yield chaos on equities - position for AI earnings growth peaking - earnings concentration & wealth effect risks - Hawk Warsh will hike & overpower dove Bessent - But still constructive equities...more rotation to come Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:20 Rising yields on stocks 5:45 Speed of rise key 7:32 Stock v Bond correlations 11:40 Fed beats Treasury 17:20 Warsh will hike 22:05 Growth is key & a risk 26:58 AI earnings growth peaking? 31:32 Mag7 earnings concentration 35:15 SP500 valuations 37:50 Mag7 already underperforming 41:20 More rotation to come 44:00 Mid terms on markets 46:30 Wealth effect impact 50:01 Still constructive equities LT
Wilfred Frost23,917 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 WHY BUY GOLD & SILVER? “This is about being short the behaviour of your government. If you think they're going to be disciplined & they're going to raise rates above inflation & give you a real return on your cash, then don't do it.” This week on The Master Investor Podcast I am joined by Ned Naylor Leyland – Manager of $3bn Jupiter Gold & Silver Fund, & recently crowned Investment Week Fund Manager Of The Year. “You can ask yourself – the Treasury Secretary & the Fed Chair, are they politicians? I mean in my view, absolutely. I mean the idea of independence in my view is rather fanciful – these people say one thing & do another. The idea that there'll be a genuine pullback in the scale of central bank balance sheets is in my view unlikely.” GOLD MINERS: “The producers have never been cheaper than they are today. Ever. So these are the most profitable companies in the world - 50% free cashflow margin is probably double & in some cases triple the free cashflow that tech is making.” SILVER: "Silver is like gold in that you are short politicians, but you're also long the future. So your long green tech, tech, the military, everything really that's running the modern economy, but you're also short politicians. So silver has a nice dual feel to it.” IF TECH SELLS OFF? “It's very likely that if the equity market does go lower, then that creates a more dovish background, which is the fuel for the space I invest in. So you see a very big decoupling then of performance between the wider equity market & this particular part of it.” BITCOIN: "My personal investment style is I want to be early & I don't want to be there for the last two months of the pregnancy. I'd rather be there right at the beginning & then once I reach the point where other people are starting to get excited & jump in & there's a kind of critical mass feel, that doesn't make me feel comfortable. This is a genuine contrarian thing where I don't want to be there." GOLD vs BITCOIN: "You own gold & silver because you are thinking about this over the long term, whereas you might want to trade Bitcoin as a way to fund your holiday." WHERE IS THE GOLD: “Should these bars be audited? They should also be checked for encumbrances, which is really the more important point, presuming they're all there, who owns them? How many times over have they been leased, loaned, swapped into the system? There's one thing that is there. The other thing is how many post-it notes on each bar?" Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:05 Long term case for gold 6:14 Long term case for silver 7:06 Why no other metals? 9:54 What drove 2025 surge in gold & silver 13:06 Did Gold peak in January? 15:20 Is debasement priced in? 17:15 Central banks are NOT independent 22:00 Gold not risk-on or risk-off – its risk-free 23:15 Gold vs Bitcoin 27:14 Physical commodity + producers + development assets 29:52 Miners cheaper than ever 33:10 Portfolio construction 34:56 Gold & Silver not normal commodities 37:25 Where Is The Gold? 42:26 Physical gold vs his fund? 43:40 Revaluation of US gold reserves? 50:13 Why buy gold & silver NOW? 51:47 Could governments behave? 54:37 Conclusion
Wilfred Frost80,971 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
BUY CHINA – that’s the message from this week’s guest on The Master Investor Podcast – Louis Gave Louis-Vincent Gave, the Founding Partner and CEO of Gavekal, one of the most unique and insightful market research firms in the world. IRAN WAR: “China comes into this crisis better prepared than pretty much anybody out there… & has more oil and storage than the rest of the world combined.” LONG TERM: “China has the lowest cost of capital, the lowest cost labour, the lowest cost of electricity, and has the world's cheapest currency and it's not even close… And that makes for a very powerful combination.” WARNING: UK, France and US bond markets are vulnerable. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:28 Iran War – likely path 05:34 Iran War – inflation coming 08:04 Iran War – who is most exposed 13:37 UK, France, US bond markets vulnerable 15:55 Bearish on defence stocks 20:38 China well prepared for Iran shock 28:20 China screaming buy long term 34:56 Constructive rest of Asia 36:12 US overvalued? 41:33 Know your strengths
Wilfred Frost107,207 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨with JIM MELLON - US mkt at a tipping point - "Just wait it out - there'll be opportunity to buy much cheaper" - SpaceX biggest short of all time - Fading energy longs, but bullish UK North Sea Ithaca Energy - Bullish UK small cap; Yen; gold miners (not metal) CAUTION: “If you think that you can lay down your portfolio for the next 20 years and you'll be fine, then I think you're making a big mistake because the rapid change in technology, the rapid change in almost everything in society means that you've got to be well-read and got to have good sources of advice. And if you feel hesitant about the markets, just don't go into them. Don't feel that you have to be involved at all times. Just wait it out. There'll be an opportunity to buy much cheaper.” TIPPING POINT: “I think it's a sort of a general tipping point in markets. You have seen that the US market has not done well this year actually compared to other markets around the world. Although the US market has done well over the last five years, it's been highly concentrated in what it's done. Now it's really looking pretty bad. And I think the main signal for that was the SpaceX IPO, which was the biggest short of all time.” YEN: “I've got that timing completely wrong… but I have my cash reserves, a lot of them, in Japanese Yen. I would say that we could see 110 to 120 on the Japanese Yen against the US dollar” MINERS: “I'm not in gold and silver at the moment, except for the miners” UK SMALL CAP: “I would say UK smaller companies are extremely attractive. You can see UK companies being picked off one by one, three or four a week, which is tragic, but hopefully there'll be other companies that come along and replace them, which is why I'm quite bullish on the UK. But we're talking there about PE ratios between 10 and 11, free cash flow yields of about 9%, dividend yields of four to 5%. It's extraordinarily attractive.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:25 US tech at tipping point 7:10 Strait of Hormuz less important than feared 9:27 Long UK North Sea plays 11:38 Fading most oil & gas longs 12:39 Debt LT problem not ST 15:28 US not the only risky bond mkt 17:41 Bullish on Yen still 23:22 Gold miners over gold/silver metal 26:07 Bullish UK small caps 29:46 The case for psychedelics 32:23 Novel proteins 39:12 Broad mkts trading heavy 41:49 Cheaper entry point ahead
Wilfred Frost41,296 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
SOFTWARE IS DEAD: "The software companies frankly got fat & happy. I think what will happen over time is ChatGPT & Claude will end up sitting on top of basically the entire enterprise software stack & almost everything else will end up being a dumb data pipe into those two." Fascinating conversation this week with Dominic Rizzo, who manages the $8.7bn Global Technology Fund at T. Rowe Price, which has returned 44% PER YEAR since he took over Dec 2022. He has been super bullish AI & has the performance to match, & explains why he is confident the AI capex cycle continues, not least following $GOOG capital raise last week. BULLISH: "Electricity added roughly 1% to global GDP growth every year for 32 years. I think AI is already smashing that. And the question people always ask me, have we overspent yet? I don't think we've overspent yet." COMPUTE WINS: "We've learned time & time again - compute equals revenue. I'm going to say it again it's so important. Compute equals revenue. Compute equals revenue." NVIDIA KING: "So is $NVDA still the king? Yes, is the answer pretty unequivocally. Jensen's really brilliant and he knows how to bring the symphony together of all the different pieces." Also very bullish on $AMD & $INTC. Memory NOT commoditised $MU #Samsung #SKHynix Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 Great performance & good timing 6:29 AI - we haven’t overspent yet 09:28 Impact of agentic computing 11:47 Four part framework for picking stocks 14:34 Software companies got fat & happy 17:01 Can $MSFT $CRM adapt? No. 22:05 Why $NVDA is still the King. $AMD $INTC too. 27:59 $ARM figured out low power CPU processing 30:56 Memory is the hardest “commodity” in world to make 35:00 Technical market factors – ETFs & IPOs 36:30 $GOOGL capital raise signals capex boom continues 38:40 Compute equals revenue 41:43 Why leading intelligence beats cheap 45:13 Is $AAPL vulnerable? 47:22 Upcoming mega IPOs 52:11 Pressure on broader mkts from insanely large IPOs 54:12 Valuations overall 56:00 Concluding investment advice
Wilfred Frost65,105 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Tremendously excited to announce that the first 3 episodes of #DavidFrostVs drop on @SkyTV NOW on 23 February. Join Dad's front row seat to the moments that made history. Second 3 eps in May, & coming to US in April. Can't wait for everyone to see it.
Wilfred Frost273,037 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Niall Ferguson: "In lots of ways we're in a very 1890s America. I keep asking myself, is there an 1893 moment, a kind of panic when suddenly mkts decide maybe there isn't going to be the pot of gold at the end of Sam Altman's rainbow". Niall Ferguson Full ep:
Wilfred Frost148,120 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce