Wilfred Frost
@WilfredFrost • 47,941 subscribers
Anchor of Mornings w @RidgeAndFrost @SkyNews; Contributor @CNBC @MSNowNews @NBCNews; CEO Paradine Productions; Host The Master Investor Podcast - subscribe now:
Videos
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 60 minutes with JAMIE DIMON - wouldn't buy long bonds or SP500 here - "risks are bigger than people think" - "I want Andy Burnham to succeed", but Banks Levy is "wrong" - Leadership masterclass - breaking bureaucracy; overcoming insecurity; loneliness at top STOCK MARKET: "In general would I be a buyer at this price? No." BUYER OF LONG DATED BONDS? “Personally, no. I would not be a buyer and part of it is interest rates. I mean even if inflation was 2%, the 10-year bond should probably be at 4-4.5%. And the short rate should be at 3.25-3.5%. And they're almost there today. So I don't understand what the upside is, even if you think inflation going to go to 2%. But being an economic historian, I can't take out of my mind what happened after the great recession of 74. Deficits were less…And it climbed from 3.5% to 5% to 7% to 9% to 11%.” ECONOMY/MARKET RISKS: “Make a list of all those really complex long-term geopolitical tectonic plates things that affect the market or may not… I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think.” MARCH 2020 NEAR DEATH EXPERIENCE: “So I knew at that point in time that there might be goodbye. Yeah.” And what stood out for you in the life that you'd led in that moment? “I remember I spoke to my wife and I told her to call their company and tell them exactly what's happening so they can do what they got to do. But the good news is I didn't have any great regrets. I would be leaving behind great children, great wife, great company. I did the best I can. Of course I made mistakes. But fortunately I recovered from all that.” ON ANDY BURNHAM: “I want him to succeed. I want to see the UK thrive. I want London to succeed. But the UK, like everybody else and like my own country…you need a strong economy to do that. So the new Chancellor going to need good policies that actually cause growth. So I'm praying that they get policy right and government after government get it wrong.” ON BANKS LEVY: “I have always thought it was wrong. JP Morgan did not damage the UK and I called the Chancellor at the time. We're a great citizen there. We hire people there. We want to be bigger there. We train people there. We hire veterans there. All of our people get medical and all that stuff like that. And I just thought it was a lack of principle to punish a company that had nothing to do with the crisis. And it's still there seventeen years later. Is that fair to a shareholder? I mean, it may sound great, 'tax the banks', but it's $5 billion that my shareholder's paid on that extra tax. And I just think things like that have adverse consequences.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:14 As good as it gets environment 3:08 Risks bigger than people expect 4:28 Resilience despite Iran 9:21 Would not buy bonds here 12:50 AI risk & opportunity 15:16 Not buyer of SP500 here 16:02 SpaceX valuation 17:45 Lessons from Financial Crisis 19:09 Don’t expect success 21:00 Loneliness of leadership 23:25 Commitment to NYC Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani 25:03 I want Andy Burnham to succeed 26:40 UK Banks Levy is wrong 29:14 Fighting bureaucracy 33:20 Character most important trait 35:26 Insecurity ruins leaders 39:46 Success is not just your own 43:15 Politics is a very tough game 47:55 Dimon’s founder-like impact & succession 51:30 Near death experience 53:05 Family 56:34 Learn, learn, learn – from history & people J.P. Morgan Chase Chase UK J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Wilfred Frost730,857 次观看 • 17 天前
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 with Luke Gromen - founder of Forest For The Trees: - equities "extremely complacent" to sovereign debt risks - US, UK, Fr, Ger, Jap - "all going to break" - be un-levered, own gold, & be ready to buy the dip because... - Warsh WILL bend knee to Treasury mkt
Wilfred Frost72,284 次观看 • 4 天前
HOLD MORE CASH - says legendary tech investor Dan Niles in this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast, just six weeks after he correctly called for a more aggressive risk-on approach at the end of March, since when Nasdaq has surged 25%. SEMIS: “So in the short term, are semis at the most overbought they've been since 2000 or 1995 before they had horrific corrections? Absolutely.” IRAN WAR: “If it going to take a lot longer for this situation at the Strait of Hormuz to get sorted out, then you're going to see stock prices collapse to catch up with where bond yields & oil prices are. I don't think that's the case. But, I'm viewing things as you should be sitting with a lot of cash.” MEGA CAP WINNER: “It's obviously Google. They have the full stack & they're the ones you should bet on...they've got everything & they've got the massive cashflow to fund it.” However, the shift to Agentic AI should sustain earnings upgrades this year, making today more like 1998 than 99/00, but be prepared for 30-50% AI trade pull-back in early 2027. We also discussed what the shift to Agentic AI means for $NVDA (not ideal), Intel $INTC (great) and $AMD (good); why concerns over $META are NOT overdone; why $AAPL fortunes should improve; why $AMZN & $MSFT are struggling short term, & why $GOOGL shines bright. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:39 Why today feels like 1998, NOT 1999/2000 05:25 Agentic AI suggests more upside to bull market 07:52 But Iran War could derail things 11:18 Agentic AI means CPU’s over GPU’s 13:35 Semis are overbought 17:51 Is shift to CPUs bad for Nvidia? 19:13 Google the standout performer 21:15 Apple leadership transition 23:45 Meta concerns not overdone 25:37 Google best placed 27:36 30-50% AI crash by early 2027 30:01 Concerns about OpenAI 34:27 Upcoming IPOs, oil, bonds signal problems 36:16 Hold more cash 37:48 Kevin Warsh a positive, but watch bonds 45:44 Conclusion: 1998 or 1999?
Wilfred Frost293,343 次观看 • 2 个月前
![🚨NEW EP with Becky Quick: “Invest early, do it often, & let it ride, and don't worry about what's happening. To me, our job at CNBC is to educate people about what happens when you have the law of compound interest working for you.” What a joy to catch up with my dear friend Becky Quick on the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast – anchor of Squawk Box & a true titan of business journalism. We covered US-Iran peace deal; SpaceX IPO; lessons from Buffett; Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett; the beauty of the purity of markets; & her inspirational #CNBCCures. WHAT IS BUFFETT’S GENIUS?: “Patience. He & Charlie Munger have repeatedly said one of the things they're best at doing is nothing. There are a lot of people who feel like they have to act because the markets are going up & up & they have FOMO. Warren’s never had FOMO.” MUSK v BUFFETT: “Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet have both told me individually they might not buy the stock [SpaceX] but they would never bet against Elon Musk because it is a pretty risky proposition to do so.” TRUMP IRAN DEAL: “I don't know that he is nearly as focused on the midterms as most of the other elected officials in the Republican party…I think he's probably more focused on getting things done & I think he sees Iran as a particular issue that he would like to be able to say that he's brought peace there or at least cleared Iran from having the ability to have nuclear weapons. I think he probably takes that more seriously than winning the midterms.” CNBC CURES: “The idea that you're just trying to figure this out & nobody understands what you're going through. And you start to realise that if you can do something to help you should. And that was the genesis of CNBC Cures to figure out how do we connect some of these groups so that they can learn from each other and then use CNBC's platform to make sure we're getting in front of the legislators, the regulators and the investors.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 US-Iran peace deal 5:57 Iran over Mid-Terms for Trump 8:09 Buffett - don’t bet against Elon Musk 9:45 Déjà vu of late 1990s? 12:40 CNBC’s role – financial education 16:50 21 Years of Squawk Box 20:07 Purity of the markets 22:16 Lessons from Warren Buffett 26:05 Buffett’s secret – patience 30:07 CNBC Cures 40:20 Loneliness of rare disease 44:48 Investing, career and life advice](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2066899825103155458/amplify_video_thumb/2066894757599522816/img/GYcSghooNgXZS6Ch.jpg)
🚨NEW EP with Becky Quick: “Invest early, do it often, & let it ride, and don't worry about what's happening. To me, our job at CNBC is to educate people about what happens when you have the law of compound interest working for you.” What a joy to catch up with my dear friend Becky Quick on the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast – anchor of Squawk Box & a true titan of business journalism. We covered US-Iran peace deal; SpaceX IPO; lessons from Buffett; Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett; the beauty of the purity of markets; & her inspirational #CNBCCures. WHAT IS BUFFETT’S GENIUS?: “Patience. He & Charlie Munger have repeatedly said one of the things they're best at doing is nothing. There are a lot of people who feel like they have to act because the markets are going up & up & they have FOMO. Warren’s never had FOMO.” MUSK v BUFFETT: “Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet have both told me individually they might not buy the stock [SpaceX] but they would never bet against Elon Musk because it is a pretty risky proposition to do so.” TRUMP IRAN DEAL: “I don't know that he is nearly as focused on the midterms as most of the other elected officials in the Republican party…I think he's probably more focused on getting things done & I think he sees Iran as a particular issue that he would like to be able to say that he's brought peace there or at least cleared Iran from having the ability to have nuclear weapons. I think he probably takes that more seriously than winning the midterms.” CNBC CURES: “The idea that you're just trying to figure this out & nobody understands what you're going through. And you start to realise that if you can do something to help you should. And that was the genesis of CNBC Cures to figure out how do we connect some of these groups so that they can learn from each other and then use CNBC's platform to make sure we're getting in front of the legislators, the regulators and the investors.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 US-Iran peace deal 5:57 Iran over Mid-Terms for Trump 8:09 Buffett - don’t bet against Elon Musk 9:45 Déjà vu of late 1990s? 12:40 CNBC’s role – financial education 16:50 21 Years of Squawk Box 20:07 Purity of the markets 22:16 Lessons from Warren Buffett 26:05 Buffett’s secret – patience 30:07 CNBC Cures 40:20 Loneliness of rare disease 44:48 Investing, career and life advice
Wilfred Frost142,528 次观看 • 1 个月前
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 with Anthony Anthony Scaramucci: “Expect failure. If you're taking exogenous risk expect that your ass is going to get kicked. And don't be a baby about it & play the victim. When they fired me from the White House, I got torched by everybody. Did I care? No, I faced the music & never played the victim. So you got to have that mentality if you're going to take risk, if you're not comfortable with that, then don't do it.” An absolutely action packed hour with Anthony Scaramucci of career & investment advice on The Master Investor Podcast this week. We covered his more punchy early trading days taking huge short term risks; his evolution to a more careful long term investor focusing on mega trends; why he is a major believer in blockchain & specifically Bitcoin; why he owns & will hold SpaceX for the long term; his belief we will face deflation not inflation in a few years; his tips for young investors; & compelling career advice from someone who has taken big risks, had major lows, & now bigger highs. KNOW YOURSELF: “So first thing I would say to your viewers & listeners is self-awareness. Know who you are & know if you have the ability to take on the pain & the uncertainty of entrepreneurship because entrepreneurs jump off the cliff & they're trying to build the plane as they're descending to earth. You have to be able to do that.” PAY YOURSELF: “What I've been doing since the age of 17 is I've been buying stocks every month. And it could be the SP500, it could be Berkshire Hathaway, it could be Amazon. If you just take that discipline & you buy every month irrespective of where markets are & you sit back and wait five or 10 years, I think you'll be rewarded.” SPACEX & ELON MUSK: “When I have a win like SpaceX, my attitude is I'm not going to bet against Elon Musk. It's almost as if Thomas Edison got together with Henry Ford & John Rockefeller & made Elon Musk in a laboratory. He's got vision, execution skills, he's an engineer, & he's just not somebody I want to bet against. So SpaceX, I get it, I understand how expensive it is, I understand the revenues versus the market capitalization, but I believe this guy could catch up.” BITCOIN: “If you're an investor, you can't just flip off Bitcoin, you have to do the homework. And I submit to people that do the homework, nine out of 10 of them will probably own a little bit of Bitcoin. I've done the homework & I'm a believer in it. I do believe that it could trade to half of the market cap of gold, which is sort of a 10x from here over the next decade.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:35 Servant Leadership 6:30 Focus on very long term 12:37 Fear deflation more than inflation 15:57 SpaceX – long term holder 20:28 The case for blockchain & $BTC 28:12 $BTC still under-owned 31:46 Inflation vs innovation 37:31 Wall St vs Washington 40:31 Lessons from President Trump 45:26 UK too hard on itself 47:59 Take risk, expect failure
Wilfred Frost78,040 次观看 • 1 个月前
🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 WHY BUY GOLD & SILVER? “This is about being short the behaviour of your government. If you think they're going to be disciplined & they're going to raise rates above inflation & give you a real return on your cash, then don't do it.” This week on The Master Investor Podcast I am joined by Ned Naylor Leyland – Manager of $3bn Jupiter Gold & Silver Fund, & recently crowned Investment Week Fund Manager Of The Year. “You can ask yourself – the Treasury Secretary & the Fed Chair, are they politicians? I mean in my view, absolutely. I mean the idea of independence in my view is rather fanciful – these people say one thing & do another. The idea that there'll be a genuine pullback in the scale of central bank balance sheets is in my view unlikely.” GOLD MINERS: “The producers have never been cheaper than they are today. Ever. So these are the most profitable companies in the world - 50% free cashflow margin is probably double & in some cases triple the free cashflow that tech is making.” SILVER: "Silver is like gold in that you are short politicians, but you're also long the future. So your long green tech, tech, the military, everything really that's running the modern economy, but you're also short politicians. So silver has a nice dual feel to it.” IF TECH SELLS OFF? “It's very likely that if the equity market does go lower, then that creates a more dovish background, which is the fuel for the space I invest in. So you see a very big decoupling then of performance between the wider equity market & this particular part of it.” BITCOIN: "My personal investment style is I want to be early & I don't want to be there for the last two months of the pregnancy. I'd rather be there right at the beginning & then once I reach the point where other people are starting to get excited & jump in & there's a kind of critical mass feel, that doesn't make me feel comfortable. This is a genuine contrarian thing where I don't want to be there." GOLD vs BITCOIN: "You own gold & silver because you are thinking about this over the long term, whereas you might want to trade Bitcoin as a way to fund your holiday." WHERE IS THE GOLD: “Should these bars be audited? They should also be checked for encumbrances, which is really the more important point, presuming they're all there, who owns them? How many times over have they been leased, loaned, swapped into the system? There's one thing that is there. The other thing is how many post-it notes on each bar?" Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:05 Long term case for gold 6:14 Long term case for silver 7:06 Why no other metals? 9:54 What drove 2025 surge in gold & silver 13:06 Did Gold peak in January? 15:20 Is debasement priced in? 17:15 Central banks are NOT independent 22:00 Gold not risk-on or risk-off – its risk-free 23:15 Gold vs Bitcoin 27:14 Physical commodity + producers + development assets 29:52 Miners cheaper than ever 33:10 Portfolio construction 34:56 Gold & Silver not normal commodities 37:25 Where Is The Gold? 42:26 Physical gold vs his fund? 43:40 Revaluation of US gold reserves? 50:13 Why buy gold & silver NOW? 51:47 Could governments behave? 54:37 Conclusion
Wilfred Frost80,971 次观看 • 1 个月前
BUY CHINA – that’s the message from this week’s guest on The Master Investor Podcast – Louis Gave Louis-Vincent Gave, the Founding Partner and CEO of Gavekal, one of the most unique and insightful market research firms in the world. IRAN WAR: “China comes into this crisis better prepared than pretty much anybody out there… & has more oil and storage than the rest of the world combined.” LONG TERM: “China has the lowest cost of capital, the lowest cost labour, the lowest cost of electricity, and has the world's cheapest currency and it's not even close… And that makes for a very powerful combination.” WARNING: UK, France and US bond markets are vulnerable. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:28 Iran War – likely path 05:34 Iran War – inflation coming 08:04 Iran War – who is most exposed 13:37 UK, France, US bond markets vulnerable 15:55 Bearish on defence stocks 20:38 China well prepared for Iran shock 28:20 China screaming buy long term 34:56 Constructive rest of Asia 36:12 US overvalued? 41:33 Know your strengths
Wilfred Frost107,117 次观看 • 3 个月前
SOFTWARE IS DEAD: "The software companies frankly got fat & happy. I think what will happen over time is ChatGPT & Claude will end up sitting on top of basically the entire enterprise software stack & almost everything else will end up being a dumb data pipe into those two." Fascinating conversation this week with Dominic Rizzo, who manages the $8.7bn Global Technology Fund at T. Rowe Price, which has returned 44% PER YEAR since he took over Dec 2022. He has been super bullish AI & has the performance to match, & explains why he is confident the AI capex cycle continues, not least following $GOOG capital raise last week. BULLISH: "Electricity added roughly 1% to global GDP growth every year for 32 years. I think AI is already smashing that. And the question people always ask me, have we overspent yet? I don't think we've overspent yet." COMPUTE WINS: "We've learned time & time again - compute equals revenue. I'm going to say it again it's so important. Compute equals revenue. Compute equals revenue." NVIDIA KING: "So is $NVDA still the king? Yes, is the answer pretty unequivocally. Jensen's really brilliant and he knows how to bring the symphony together of all the different pieces." Also very bullish on $AMD & $INTC. Memory NOT commoditised $MU #Samsung #SKHynix Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 Great performance & good timing 6:29 AI - we haven’t overspent yet 09:28 Impact of agentic computing 11:47 Four part framework for picking stocks 14:34 Software companies got fat & happy 17:01 Can $MSFT $CRM adapt? No. 22:05 Why $NVDA is still the King. $AMD $INTC too. 27:59 $ARM figured out low power CPU processing 30:56 Memory is the hardest “commodity” in world to make 35:00 Technical market factors – ETFs & IPOs 36:30 $GOOGL capital raise signals capex boom continues 38:40 Compute equals revenue 41:43 Why leading intelligence beats cheap 45:13 Is $AAPL vulnerable? 47:22 Upcoming mega IPOs 52:11 Pressure on broader mkts from insanely large IPOs 54:12 Valuations overall 56:00 Concluding investment advice
Wilfred Frost64,633 次观看 • 2 个月前
![WARNING: “We haven’t had problem in 15 years or more…at some point there will be forced reckoning.” A few weeks ago Fmr Goldman Sachs Chairman & CEO Lloyd Blankfein – a true titan of finance – joined The Master Investor Podcast and shared lessons from his life, including the American Dream, actionable career advice, what makes a great trader & lessons from the 2008 financial crisis with some worrying warnings for today. LESSONS FROM 2008: “If I was still managing the risk of a big institution today I'd be very, very concerned about something that could trigger [a blaze] and I think this is a good time to look for the spark. Could the spark be private equity? Could it be private credit? Could it be the price of oil suddenly doubling? It could be any of those things & the world might absorb that at any other time except we haven't had a problem in 15 years or more. At some point there'll be a forced reckoning.” ART OF GREAT TRADE: “Traders are a lot like good poker players. Over your life, statistically you're going to get the same amount of good hands & bad hands that anybody else will get but somehow the good poker player always wins and the poor poker player always loses. Why is that? One will play the cards better…get out of a bad position quicker and let his opportunity run in a good position. The future is very hard to identify, but I noticed the people who are very good traders are the people who react the quickest to changes.” CAREER ADVICE: “In order to do a good job, you need the enthusiastic support of the people who are your subordinates. I didn't always make myself so friendly to the people around me. If I'd known I was going to grow so senior in the firm, I would've been a lot nicer to people on the way up because then I would've had to spend much less of my time apologising to them. Once I got to those positions, I needed their support as I moved up the letterhead.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:49 The advantage of low expectations 5:10 Feeling insignificant 6:52 The American Dream 8:15 J. Aron vs Goldman Sachs 11:16 The art of being a great trader 13:21 Traders vs Investment Bankers 16:25 Memories of 2008 Financial Crisis 20:28 “You can’t recover from being dead” 22:26 Déjà vu today from 2008? 26:13 A reckoning is coming 28:28 US government debt risks 30:00 US economy has strong culture 34:10 London as a financial centre 36:22 I started life as a gold trader but it didn’t make me a gold bug 37:52 I am mostly in equities 39:10 You need support of subordinates not grudging cooperation 42:45 Suck it up and stick it out 45:27 Don’t get deluded by your own self importance 47:53 Worrier not a warrior 51:55 Optimism is generally justified](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2057806675512266808/amplify_video_thumb/2057791045677486080/img/LEgYmT60mXiOVBcv.jpg)
WARNING: “We haven’t had problem in 15 years or more…at some point there will be forced reckoning.” A few weeks ago Fmr Goldman Sachs Chairman & CEO Lloyd Blankfein – a true titan of finance – joined The Master Investor Podcast and shared lessons from his life, including the American Dream, actionable career advice, what makes a great trader & lessons from the 2008 financial crisis with some worrying warnings for today. LESSONS FROM 2008: “If I was still managing the risk of a big institution today I'd be very, very concerned about something that could trigger [a blaze] and I think this is a good time to look for the spark. Could the spark be private equity? Could it be private credit? Could it be the price of oil suddenly doubling? It could be any of those things & the world might absorb that at any other time except we haven't had a problem in 15 years or more. At some point there'll be a forced reckoning.” ART OF GREAT TRADE: “Traders are a lot like good poker players. Over your life, statistically you're going to get the same amount of good hands & bad hands that anybody else will get but somehow the good poker player always wins and the poor poker player always loses. Why is that? One will play the cards better…get out of a bad position quicker and let his opportunity run in a good position. The future is very hard to identify, but I noticed the people who are very good traders are the people who react the quickest to changes.” CAREER ADVICE: “In order to do a good job, you need the enthusiastic support of the people who are your subordinates. I didn't always make myself so friendly to the people around me. If I'd known I was going to grow so senior in the firm, I would've been a lot nicer to people on the way up because then I would've had to spend much less of my time apologising to them. Once I got to those positions, I needed their support as I moved up the letterhead.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:49 The advantage of low expectations 5:10 Feeling insignificant 6:52 The American Dream 8:15 J. Aron vs Goldman Sachs 11:16 The art of being a great trader 13:21 Traders vs Investment Bankers 16:25 Memories of 2008 Financial Crisis 20:28 “You can’t recover from being dead” 22:26 Déjà vu today from 2008? 26:13 A reckoning is coming 28:28 US government debt risks 30:00 US economy has strong culture 34:10 London as a financial centre 36:22 I started life as a gold trader but it didn’t make me a gold bug 37:52 I am mostly in equities 39:10 You need support of subordinates not grudging cooperation 42:45 Suck it up and stick it out 45:27 Don’t get deluded by your own self importance 47:53 Worrier not a warrior 51:55 Optimism is generally justified
Wilfred Frost57,901 次观看 • 2 个月前
🚨 SPACEx IPO 🚨 BULL v BEAR debate - with: - Morgan Brennan CNBC - setting it all up - Dan Ives Wedbush - BULL case - Nicolas Owens Morningstar, Inc. - BEAR case - Larry McDonald The Bear Traps Report - impact on wider mkt Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:14 Morgan Brennan sets it up 17:00 Dan Ives - BULL case 28:43 Nicolas Owens - BEAR case 42:39 Larry McDonald - impact on wider market Lawrence McDonald Morgan Brennan Dan Ives
Wilfred Frost26,042 次观看 • 1 个月前
