Z
@ZeeContrarian1 • 45,033 subscribers
Former Wall Street professional. Special situations, awareness, logic, Buddhism.
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$STAA I would highly recommend watching Wedbush’s analysis of STAAR Surgical below. 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁 When it comes to your eyes, people are extremely conservative. Most people are not going to let a surgeon put a product in their eyes that has only been around for two or three years. They want something that has been tested on millions of patients and proven safe for 10 or 20 years. Building that level of trust takes decades and creates a very powerful moat. 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿 STAAR is the dominant player in implantable lenses for eyesight correction. In many markets it controls the vast majority of the industry, giving doctors and patients confidence that they are choosing the proven solution. 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗽 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 The stock is trading at roughly half its historical valuation because investors are focused on recent China problems rather than the long-term value of the business. 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 A competitor was willing to acquire the company for $30.75 per share near the bottom of the cycle. Shareholders rejected the offer because they believed the company was worth considerably more. 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗻 Since that offer was made, China sales have recovered significantly. The business is arguably in a stronger position today than when the offer was rejected. 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 More people around the world need eyesight correction every year, creating a long runway for growth. 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗹𝘆 Large shareholders have significant influence over the company and are focused on increasing shareholder value. 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 What happened in China appears to have been an inventory issue, not a demand issue. If demand remains healthy, growth should continue to recover. 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗣𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 As revenue grows, profits should grow even faster because many expenses do not increase at the same rate. 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 Growing awareness of the procedure and additional approvals continue to expand the potential customer base. 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 $𝟰𝟬 If the recovery continues, I believe $40 per share is a reasonable near-term target. 𝗣𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗼𝘂𝘁 Longer term, I would not be surprised to see the company acquired for $50 to $60 per share. A strategic buyer already tried to buy the company near the lows, and the business has improved since then. 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲 You have a market leader with a real moat, trading at a depressed valuation because of what appears to be a temporary problem. A competitor was willing to pay $30.75 per share near the bottom of the cycle. Since then, China sales have recovered significantly. If the recovery continues, $40 looks achievable. Longer term, a $50 to $60 acquisition would not be surprising.
Z25,492 views • 2 months ago
Sometimes in life, we should buy things not because we truly need them, but because someone else truly needs us to. I was riding my scooter to a paddle game when I saw an old man on the side of the road trying to sell handmade brooms. Cars kept passing. Nobody stopped. I turned around immediately. He wasn’t begging. He wasn’t asking for charity. He had prepared these brooms himself and was trying to sell them. When I stopped, he looked surprised. I bought a few brooms. I had no use for them, but later I gave them away as gifts. I do this often. Whenever I see someone trying to help themselves instead of begging, I try to support them. The world doesn’t need you to give away all your money or donate to big organizations. You can, and that’s great. But that’s not the point. The point is simple: open your heart to people around you, just do a little bit better. If each of us does a little bit better, the world becomes a better place.
Z24,426 views • 5 months ago
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