Zoomer 🧢
@zoomyzoomm • 40,793 subscribers
| AI Founder | Tech Nerd | VC Investor | Forbes 30u30 | AI Slop Maxxing | PhD in Gen Z Brainrot | Chief Shitposting Officer @ X
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Jeff Gundlach: "I believe at 6%, the Fed will announce QE (aka buying long term bonds) and when they do, you will have to be very quick, and buy as much as you possibly could, because it'll be just like when they announced buying corporate bonds during COVID... bonds ripped $TLT
Zoomer 🧢530,417 次观看 • 5 个月前
Stan Druckenmiller from 2018 is eerily similar to today. Macro Diagnosis (late 2018) > Coincident and lagging economic indicators still look very strong (GDP has a 3-handle, etc.) > Leading indicators he uses are not yet red but “definitely amber” and flashing warning signs > The single best economist he knows is “the inside of the stock market” > The S&P being down only ~13% at the time of the interview is a mirage Cyclical stocks are already in disaster territory: > Auto stocks down 30% > Building stocks down 35% > Banks down 25% > Russell 2000 down >20% > Retail equities down >20% > Defensives are up: utilities, staples, pharmaceuticals > This exact same rotation (cyclicals collapsing, defensives outperforming) has preceded every recession in his career > Yield curve is inverting > The Fed is still guiding 3–4 more hikes in 2019 while the curve is screaming the opposite > Credit markets are leading the economy lower:Corporate non-financial debt up from $6 trillion in 2010 to $9.6 trillion (60% increase) > Corporate earnings only up 27% in the same period > Almost all borrowed money went into buybacks and M&A, not capex > High-yield spreads blowing out > Credit is drying up fast > The fact that credit risk moved from banks to the shadow-banking/high-yield market does not make it safer for the economy > You would rather work out a bad loan with a bank than with a hedge fund or CLO manager > Global QT is peaking right now (Fed + ECB + BoJ) > Fed balance-sheet runoff of $50 billion/month is real tightening even if they don’t hike rates > M2 growth has collapsed from 7.5% to 4% in recent years — liquidity tightening rapidly > Commodity indexes (including oil) have collapsed in the last 4–5 months — will feed through to lower inflation readings What the Fed Is Doing Wrong Right Now > Looking primarily at lagging indicators, not coincident or leading ones > Looking at the S&P 500 level instead of what’s happening inside the market > Continuing to tighten into deteriorating financial conditions > Forward guidance is tying their own hands and has repeatedly damaged credibility more than abandoning it ever would > Examples of forward guidance failures:Yellen’s 2016 “four hikes” guidance → only hiked once (after Trump election) > Taper tantrum guidance that boxed them in > Hiking rates + shrinking balance sheet $50 bn/month when cyclical stocks are down 25–40% is not “sneaking one in under booming financial conditions” > We have never hiked into a stock-market meltdown like this since Volcker (and Volcker had 12% inflation to kill) > The Fed’s dual mandate (maximum employment + price stability) is not achieved via boom-bust cycles > Using unemployment as a real-time trigger is wrong — it’s a lagging indicator > Most recessions were preceded by very low unemployment (capacity constraint) What He Wants the Fed to Do > Pause rate hikes immediately — even skip the December 2018 hike > Does not want a cut yet, just a pause > Get completely out of the forward-guidance business > Become genuinely data-dependent on both rates and balance-sheet runoff > Explicitly tell the market: “We want to normalize over time, but timing matters, and we will adjust the pace of balance-sheet runoff as needed” > Let the air out of the bubble slowly rather than risk a rupture > Risk/reward is massively asymmetric:Cost of skipping one or two hikes and being wrong = tiny credibility hit > Cost of hiking into weakness and being wrong = 5–10× larger (forces much more extreme easing later) On Trump and Politics > It would be horrific if the Fed paused only because Trump is bullying them (lol this is the exact same thing happening in 2025) > It would be equally horrific if the Fed hikes only to prove they’re not being bullied by Trump > “A stopped clock is right twice a day” — Trump is a permanent low-rate guy (real-estate DNA), but that doesn’t automatically make pausing wrong > The Fed must take Trump completely out of the equation > Feels sorry for Powell — predecessors (especially QE3 and Yellen’s guidance) left him a terrible hand > Trump’s public attacks make Powell’s job much harder than it needed to be Market & Economic Outlook > We are already in a global bear market (most equities worldwide down for 9–12 months) > DAX and Chinese stocks peaked in January 2018 — their economic data has deteriorated exactly as the market predicted > S&P likely to return 0–5% annualized over the next 5 years > Highest probability is a multi-year sideways-to-down grind, not a quick new bull market > Does not rule out a recession (not base case yet, but enough warning signs) > Believes a “beautiful deleveraging” is nonsense — government debt exploding, corporate debt exploding > Trade wars (especially U.S.–China) were not on his radar screen in 2015 and are now a major negative for business confidence > Navarro blaming the entire stock-market selloff on the Fed is “really rich” Personal Positioning (as of early December 2018) > Went net short the market in July 2018 (too early, lost money in July/August) > Has de-risked significantly > Long Treasuries (2-year, 5-year, 10-year) — best risk/reward asset > Believes if Fed over-tightens, 2-year yields could go back to 50–60 bps within a couple of years > Long secular-growth / cloud stocks (Microsoft, ServiceNow, Workday, Salesforce, etc.) > Believes they are now attractive again after the October–November washout > In a 1–2% growth world they are structural winners and become relatively more attractive > Demand for cost-cutting (cloud migration) rises in a slowdown > Short financials (banks need rising rates to make money, but equities hate rising rates) > Short cyclicals and value areas in general > Short credit (but prefers long Treasuries as the cleaner expression) > Volatility without trend is a nightmare for discretionary macro > Algos and quant models have severely degraded traditional price-action signals > Price action vs. news used to be a huge part of his process — now much less reliable > Market signals over 8–9 months are still excellent; over 1–2 weeks now mostly noise > Passives and algos have made markets more efficient in some ways, much noisier in others > Hedge-fund industry has far too much money ($3 trillion) chasing alpha > Predicted 5–6 years ago that 9,000 hedge funds charging 2-and-20 couldn’t survive > Fundamental discretionary macro managers still have a future, but only the top 10–20 will justify fees > Politics (especially Trump’s short-term, tweet-driven style) plays a much bigger role than ever and is extremely hard to model
Zoomer 🧢96,685 次观看 • 6 个月前
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POV: A Day in the Life of a Gen Z Male > No girlfriend > Not dating > Reminisce about past relationships > Stalk ex girlfriends on social media > Stay home > Takeout dinner > Watch Netflix > Drink beer > No job > Smoke > Game > Youtube > Gamble > Porn Gen Z men are not okay.
Zoomer 🧢43,411 次观看 • 3 个月前
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