A week ago Polymarket declared war on algorithms. They... introduced a draconian 3.15% commission on 15-minute markets called Taker Fee. The goal was clear: kill latency arbitrageurs who take money faster than the site UI updates. The math is simple: if your glitch gives a 2% edge and the platform takes 3.15% commission you're bankrupt. 90% of bots shut down that same night. But this bot didn't just stay. It increased its deposit. Profile hidden from everyone: Yesterday it closed the day with $27K profit. I looked at its logs to understand how it bypasses expected value. The old method is dead Previously bots simply compared BTC price on Binance and Polymarket. Saw the difference bought waited 30 seconds. This gave small profit that is now eaten by commission. New mechanics This bot stopped looking at price. It looks at pain. It is connected to the Liquidation Stream of Bybit and OKX exchanges. Price moves linearly. Liquidations are explosive. When a cascade of liquidations triggers on futures with margin calls of $50M+ per second the BTC price makes an impulse move that lasts 3-4 seconds before pulling back. This movement exceeds 1-2%. The essence The bot sees stop triggers on derivatives -> calculates impulse strength -> if Impulse > 3.15% Commission -> Enters the trade. While other bots filter market noise this script eats the corpses of margin traders from external exchanges. It doesn't care about direction. It cares about the amplitude of market pain. Result $205K net per month While you complain about commissions and unfair conditions the code adapted in 48 hours. No predictions. No AI. Just parasitizing on volatility of other people's mistakes. Right now this is the only working vector on 15-minute markets. A 3% commission is not scary if you take a 6% move. The nickname is a set of symbols. No avatar. It doesn't need fame it needs liquidity.show more

The only strategy on Polymarket that does not care... if BTC goes to $200K or $0. Just $116,000 in February. Here is how it works. All of crypto Twitter is arguing where BTC is headed. Bulls, bears, charts, signals. Meanwhile the most profitable strategy on Polymarket right now does not even answer that question. A bot trades 15-minute markets on BTC, ETH and SOL. Does not predict direction. It watches the spot price on Binance and places bets on Polymarket before the oracle updates. Pure speed. Making its developer $8,000 - $10,000 a day. His profile: The price on Binance updates faster than the Polymarket oracle. The difference is seconds. But on 15-minute markets seconds = guaranteed profit. The bot does not predict the future, it trades the present that Polymarket has not seen yet. While everyone argues about direction someone is taking money from both sides.show more

🚨Holy shit... This guy turned $100 into $207K on... Polymarket No leverage. No signals. No charts. Just a bot running the same calculation hundreds of times per hour. Everyone thinks he's trading Bitcoin. He's not. He's not predicting price direction. He's finding where the market is wrong about its own probabilities and taking the other side. To copytrade this guy - Here's the gap he exploits: Polymarket prices 5-minute BTC Up at 46%. Real probability based on volatility and momentum: 55%. That's 9 cents mispriced on a binary outcome. Bot sees it. Bot buys it. Market resolves in 5 minutes. Edge locked. Then it does it again. And again. Hundreds of times a week. The math isn't complicated. Small edge × high frequency = the account you're looking at. Look at the pattern in the trades: 5-minute markets only Consistent sizing every entry Dozens of executions per day Win rate that doesn't drift That's not gambling. That's a probability engine running on a market built for humans to trade manually. $100 became $207,176 because the bot doesn't sleep doesn't hesitate doesn't second-guess.show more

polymarket just dropped a 3.15% taker fee on 5... min crypto markets 10 days later, a brand new trader made $124k account "vague-sourdough" registered in feb 2026 he already banked $124,835 with an insane win rate on btc and sol "up or down" markets his strategy? everyone thought the new taxes would destroy latency arbitrage bots, they were wrong probably the bot didn't change its core logic, it just updated its math, instead of spamming small gaps, the script only snipes absolute certainties where the latency spread is wider than the 3.15% platform fee it eats the tax as a business expense and still clears a profit his profile to track: drop a follow if you want to see more unique wallets high fees don't kill the bots, they just filter out the slow onesshow more

Polymarket robbery. Another Polymarket Trader exploiting bots and platform... mechanics. This lets him make $100K per month. Not clickbait. Not a joke. This is the new reality of trading. The strategy is exactly the same one I described in my article. This Polymarket Trader simply understood the game. Just like everyone else, he trades 15 minute BTC markets using a bot. Even with a 56% win rate, which is actually huge for this kind of strategy, he is making very large money. Study his profile carefully. Look into the bots I talked about before and start doing the same. According to his profile: > Accept the rules of the game already.show more

Polymarket planning to ban automated trading? 400,000% ROI and... $3.8M in profit. Is this even legal? Polymarket Trader who uses a trading bot is currently the strongest trader on the platform. He follows a few simple steps that allow him to achieve such unreal results: He’s not picking winners. He’s trading price. > Focuses only on spreads (NFL / NBA) — the most liquid markets > Buys the underdog at ≤50¢ when the crowd overvalues the favorite > Anchors to the Vegas line, not gut feeling > Holds through volatility while the market corrects itself > Profits from price movement, not necessarily the final outcome In short: sports as a market, him as a hedge fund. According to his profile: > Track this wallet and copy trade it. This service is perfect for that: > Of course Polymarket won’t ban automated trading. There’s no reason to. This guy isn’t breaking any platform rules and is making serious money. Respect to him. What do you think about this strategy? Is it possible to copy it?show more

I launched a weather trading bot on Polymarket with... $100 -> $8,000 here is how it works and how to copy it most people on polymarket price weather markets randomly based on vibes or a phone app but there is NOAA - a government agency that publishes free forecasts with 94%+ accuracy the result? you regularly see something like this: > NOAA gives a 94% probability that NYC will reach 74°F on Saturday > polymarket prices it at 11¢ the bot buys at 11¢ sells when the market corrects to 45¢ that is 4x on an almost guaranteed outcome how to launch it in 5 steps: > install OpenClaw on your pc > connect it to ChatGPT Plus + a telegram bot > create an agent on simmer markets deposit $100 > install the weather trading skill with: clawhub install simmer-weather > send the config to the bot and it starts trading the bot scans 6 cities every 2 minutes non-stop example of a real trader: profile: +$75,055 just from weather markets zero emotions. fully automated the window is still open but not forevershow more

Last night I asked Claude Code to build me... a simple script: pull on-chain data from Polymarket and sort wallets by win rate Nothing ambitious. Just wanted to see who is actually making money on 15-minute BTC markets The terminal finished in about 20 minutes. Hundreds of addresses, columns of numbers, nothing interesting And then 1 wallet caught my eye 200+ trades per day, consistent profit every week, almost surgical timing precision. I reread the line 3 times. A real person does not trade like this I fed the address back into Claude Code and asked it to break down the pattern. Half an hour later I had a full strategy reconstruction on my screen The bot (and it is definitely a bot) pings Binance and Bybit every 100ms monitoring volatility compression on BTC. When it drops below 0.08% it enters Up and Down contracts simultaneously at 25 to 35 cents each. A pure straddle. 1 side burns, the other flies to a dollar. At a 30-cent entry that is 3 to 4x per position And so it goes in circles. Dozens of times a day I sat there staring at it for about 10 minutes $13K to $25K in daily profit from a single wallet. Not a trader with intuition, not an insider with information. An algorithm that found a hole in market mechanics and methodically milks it You can check the trade history yourself: After that I went looking for whether anyone else is tracking this wallet. Turns out yes. Found a Telegram bot that tracks wallets like this and copies their trades automatically I connected it to the same address just to see if the entries would match what my terminal was showing. Matched perfectly Still testing on minimum amounts for now: But the fact that you can stand next to an algorithm like this in real time is something that simply did not exist a year agoshow more

Polymarket introduced new fees to kill bots on 15-minute... markets. Result? They just eliminated competition for the two apex predators. These wallets did not just survive. They mutated. While the platform tried to "fix" the system, these two made $918,357 in pure profit in one month. On the fees that were supposed to bankrupt them. Someone on Twitter was complaining his stops get blown at the exact same second every time. Said he was up against HFT bots with direct exchange connections. In the comments someone dropped two profiles. Said here are your "manipulators". Just code. $522,439 profit in one month. $65 million volume. First place on crypto leaderboard. This is not a person. This is PurpleThunderBicycleMountain. His profile: The second profile looked like it could not top the first. 0x8dxd. Second place. $395,918 in the same month. But here is what breaks the brain completely. In December 2025 this wallet had $313. Three hundred thirteen dollars. Now his all-time profit exceeds $658,000. The numbers do not lie. $313 turned into a fortune in six weeks. See for yourself: The mechanics are uncomfortably simple. Both trade the same thing. 15-minute crypto markets. Bitcoin up or down. ETH above or below. Every 15 minutes a new contract. Here is the trick. You look at Polymarket and see 50/50 odds. For you this is a fair coin flip. But these two do not look at Polymarket. They look at Binance. When BTC makes a move on the exchange Polymarket does not know yet. Price already moved. Direction already determined. But odds on the platform still show yesterday. The window lasts 30 seconds. Sometimes 90. It is like playing poker against someone with a mirror behind your back. He already sees your cards. You still think you are bluffing. During this time the bot enters at old prices. Buys YES at 25 cents when real probability is already 80%. Or NO at 1.5 cents when the market already crashed. Then the window closes. Odds catch up to reality. Bot gets $1 for every 25 cents. This is not forecasting. This is harvesting from people staring at a stale screen. One trade stands out. ETH dumped on spot. PurpleThunderBicycleMountain loaded NO at 1.5 cents. Kept buying as price rose to 15 cents. Window closed down. Every share paid $1. 785% in fifteen minutes. On one trade. The craziest part is 0x8dxd stats. Win rate 98%. Out of 6,615 trades. Almost perfect. A human cannot trade like this. A human has shaky hands. A human doubts. A human sleeps. The bot does not sleep. The bot does not doubt. The bot just waits for Binance and Polymarket to diverge for 30 seconds. And takes the difference. Their profit curves both grow without a single pullback. No crashes. No nervous breakdowns. Methodical. Mechanical. Relentless. Polymarket introduced fees to stop this. Result? Small bots died. These two took their market share. A 1.5% fee means nothing when your average return is 300%. Here is what kills. Anyone can spend months learning Python. Rent a server near the exchange. Write an algorithm. Test. Debug. Lose money on mistakes. Or just open their profiles and see what they are buying. The blockchain stores everything. Every position. Every timing. Full history in the open. They spend thousands on infrastructure. Write code for months. Optimize milliseconds. Anyone can just watch where they enter. $918,357 in one month between them. First and second place on the leaderboard. This is not theory. This is a working machine. Right now somewhere BTC is making a move. Polymarket still shows old odds. These two are already entering a position. Only one question remains: Will you be the one selling to them at stale prices? Or the one entering alongside them? In 15 minutes a new contract opens. 14 minutes left.show more

i found a pattern in 5-minute bitcoin markets it's... literally a way to make x100 in one trade no bots needed, no technical analysis just timing the last 1-2 seconds let me explain how it works the market is nearing completion price fluctuates slightly, needs only $20-40 to hit the target level in the last 10 seconds, shares price starts dropping sharply everyone assumes the outcome is decided one side trades down to a few cents here's where it gets interesting watching these markets, i noticed a pattern in the final second there's a violent price spike in the direction nobody expected the outcome that was trading at 1c suddenly wins looks like whale manipulation since the market is so new but we don't care about why right now we're being handed free money by buying the "dead" outcome at 1c in the final seconds you risk losing $1 to make $100 the math is completely in your favor probability theory says if this happens even 2% of the time you're profitable and it's happening way more than 2% just try it yourself before it gets fixed yet 5-min market:show more

A bot made $669,264 in a month betting on... Bitcoin Up or Down right now it's one of the most profitable bots on Polymarket It profits off panic buying/selling by crypto investors by basically acting as a market maker for the up/down markets Here's how its algorithm works: based on the last 10 trades it determines the fair value -> accumulates YES if the price is above fair value (otherwise accumulates NO) -> earns from the spread if you want alerts + copy trade his actions: Examples of its wins: - $60,941 on Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET at 28 cents - $43,671 on Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET at 36 cents - $38,793 on Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET at 26 cents This bot is a clear proof that Bitcoin up or down markets are some of the best to trade, because they're simple and profitable In my recent article I also covered other best markets to trade on Polymarket 👇show more

Fresh Bot Turned $300 Into $109,781 This Week I... think I just found the cleanest arbitrage bot on Polymarket. It made $109,781 in the past 7 days, almost entirely from exploiting the XRP “Up or Down” micro-markets. His profile: The strategy is quite simple: It instantly scans every new XRP window, and whenever the combined price of YES + NO slips below $1, it buys both sides at a discount. Then, as soon as the market corrects, it exits for a guaranteed profit. This bot made +36,494% gain in seven days, making it one of the most optimized and terrifyingly efficient bots in the entire game. Feel free to copytrade this wallet here: > What’s stopping you from building bot like this one?show more

Free ClawdBot is printing money on Polymarket The script... made about $460,000 - pretty crazy result It auto-trades BTC and ETH, focusing on 15-minute up and down moves and catching small delays and inefficiencies on centralized exchanges. No insider tools Just a smart automated script Profile: Copytrade: How it works Short-term moves The bot focuses on very short time frames - mostly 15-minute price direction on major coins. This is not long-term investing, it’s fast micro-trading. Exchange inefficiencies It watches centralized exchanges for tiny price gaps or delays and reacts instantly when an opportunity appears. Scale and frequency 500+ trades per week. Each trade aims for a very small profit, but over time those small gains add up and compound. The surprising part Most of the logic was created by prompting AI to generate the code - no developer degree needed. Bottom line High frequency Small edges Strong compounding Automation over emotionshow more

Polymarket just got owned by this trader He trades... only Bitcoin and turned $1,000 into $600,000. Hard to believe? It’s true. This is not guessing prices He’s not friends with Trump or Elon He doesn’t work at BlackRock It all comes down to a simple, well-thought-out strategy coded in a script Profile: The strategy in short: The bot trades 15-minute BTC markets. When Bitcoin makes a sharp move on Binance, Polymarket prices lag by 30–90 seconds. The bot spots this momentum and enters positions before prices update, essentially betting on a move that’s already happening. Full strategy: 1. Bets are placed not on event outcomes, but on price inefficiencies. 2. Thousands of fast trades accumulate into massive total profit. 3. In calm markets, risk stays low, while strong trends allow profits to grow rapidly. 4. Most traders can’t react fast enough, but the bot turns market delays into money.show more

Yesterday at 3 AM Claude Code called me I... woke up, picked up the phone, and on the screen was a message: "Wallet entered BTC Up at 11 cents. Open Polymarket?" I said yes and went back to sleep Claude Code unlocked my 2nd phone on its own, opened Polymarket, found the right market, entered the amount, and hit Buy. I could see all of it in real time through the web interface on my laptop. Screenshots from the phone updating every second. By morning the position closed in profit Let me tell you how I got here A week ago I asked Claude Code to write a script that pulls on-chain data from Polymarket and ranks wallets by win rate on 15-minute BTC markets In 20 minutes I had a table with hundreds of addresses, and 1 of them stood apart from the rest. More than 200 trades per day, surgical entry precision, and a profit curve going straight up I fed that address back into Claude Code and asked it to break down the strategy. Turns out the wallet monitors BTC volatility on Binance and Bybit every 100 milliseconds, and when it drops below 0.08% it enters Up and Down simultaneously at 25 to 35 cents A pure straddle: 1 side burns and the other flies to a dollar, giving 3 to 4x per position. Dozens of times a day I wanted to follow it but signals came at any hour, and waking up every 15 minutes for a notification was simply impossible. So I built something else Took an old Android phone and installed an agent running on the Qwen3-VL visual model. It sees what is happening on the screen and mimics human actions through ADB: taps, swipes, text input. Then I connected it to Claude Code as the executor Now the chain works like this: Claude Code monitors the wallet, sees a new position, calls me. And if I say "yes" or just do not pick up within 30 seconds, the agent on the phone opens Polymarket on its own and copies the entry Essentially I built myself an autopilot out of 2 AI systems: 1 thinks and the other presses buttons. I just sleep and occasionally pick up the phone → Here is the wallet the whole thing is tracking: For those who do not want to build a setup like this there is a Telegram bot that handles the 1st part: tracks this wallet and sends a signal on every new entry: AI calls me at 3 AM to ask permission to spend my money A year ago this would have sounded like schizophrenia. Now it is just Tuesdayshow more

Mechanical arbitrage. The best Polymarket strategy. In one month,... using this strategy, a Polymarket trader turned $300 into $300K. A human, without gambling, wouldn’t even come close to repeating that result. So what’s the point? The account I’m going to talk about below — it’s a bot. No human intervention at all. It trades only BTC on 15-minute Up/Down windows. It enters only after a confirmed impulse on Binance and Coinbase, while Polymarket’s price hasn’t “caught up” yet. That’s the trick the platform still hasn’t fixed. Losses are almost negligible because the wins cover everything. The price at entry is already “wrong” from the market’s perspective, and the bot catches this short-lived gap. According to his profile: > Polycule helps me copy his trades: > Bug or feature? What do you think?show more

CHINESE ENGINEERS JUST WROTE CLAUDE SCRIPT AND TURNED $6.02... INTO $3.3 MILLION ON POLYMARKET Nobody tells you about them and you still think this is a person placing bets manually I guess. Let me disappoint you, this is a fully automated script built by Chinese engineers 100%. This is true. They called it PHANTOM X. It runs completely through Claude. Their account here: Result: $6.02 -> $3,354,000. Win rate 71%. Biggest win: $179,000 (single bet). I’m copying their trades here: (Just added their wallet to TG bot 0xee613b3fc183ee44f9da9c05f53e2da107e3debf, it's so easy) How the bot works: -> It simultaneously tracks thousands of sports markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. -> Finds discrepancies between the platforms. -> Enters positions faster than any human could imo. Just three strategies in one: -- Pairs Trading: the bot sees YES on the Rockets at $0.62 while NO is at $0.41. Total = $1.03 instead of $1.00. That’s a 3% risk-free profit. It enters automatically within milliseconds. -- Sentiment AI: scans Twitter (X) and news in real time. If something big breaks, it recalculates the probability in 2 seconds before the market reacts. -- Calendar + Volatility: 15–20 minutes before the game, volatility spikes. The bot takes positions early and closes after the first major move. Why sports is perfect? Sports O/U markets have clear paired contracts that should total exactly $1.00, but constant deviations create reliable arbitrage. This is exactly how [sovereign2013] built $3.35M. > A human physically cannot monitor 50+ markets at once, react in milliseconds, stay awake 24/7, avoid emotions after losses, and run Z-scores on 60 bars of data. > The bot does all of this in parallel without breaks. Manual trading is dying. The automation era has arrived. Start learning Claude now. If you’re interested in writing your own bot on Polymarket: Comment the word "BOT" Like and repost this post Follow me (so I can message you easly) And within 24 hours I will send you a full manual on how to build a bot that can earn $2,900+/month. Also SAVE this info and article.show more

Polymarket introduced fees 3% to crush automated trading. A... week ago in a Discord with developers we spent an hour doing the math: is it even possible to squeeze $250 a day on 15-minute markets with the new fees? The consensus: margin is dead. One developer didn't let that stop him from quietly making $98K a week. He automated the full pipeline: data parsing, entry calculation, trade execution. While everyone was counting fees, he was collecting money. Second place on the Polymarket leaderboard. I stared at his chart and couldn't figure it out: either I'm missing something, or the entire Discord was wrong. I found him by accident. Scrolling through top wallets and stumbled on numbers that didn't compute. $313 to start. Now $912K. Two months. I recalculated three times: $12-24K per day, and these aren't peak days, this is every day. The profit curve looks like someone drew it with a ruler. Not a single serious drawdown. Not one. For three weeks I watched this wallet. Entry timing. Position sizes. Which markets. What time of day. Looking for what separates him from hundreds of other automated traders. Then I noticed a pattern that made me uncomfortable. There's a 30-second window. Thirty seconds where Polymarket and reality don't match. BTC moves on Binance. The price already changed. But Polymarket odds are still frozen. Old numbers. Outdated prices. The world already shifted, but the prediction market is still asleep. Imagine an auction. You're standing in the room and hear the hammer drop. The lot sold for $50,000. But the other bidders are sitting in the next room watching a delayed broadcast. For them the bidding is still going. They're still raising their paddles trying to outbid. You know the lot already sold. They don't. This wallet is the one standing in the room. Every 15 minutes. Entry while odds are frozen. Wait. Window closes. Pays 30 cents, takes a dollar. No manual intervention. The developer automated the entire process and now just watches. The system only enters after a confirmed impulse on Binance and Coinbase, when Polymarket hasn't caught up to reality yet. The mechanics are laughably simple: Calculates fair value based on the last 10 trades. Price above FV, accumulate YES. Below, accumulate NO. No magic. Just basic math that takes money from people trading on emotions. And here's what got me. When Polymarket introduced fees, everyone wrote: end of automation. Now it'll be a fair game. Know what actually happened? Small players died. The ones with thin margins. The ones who couldn't afford to pay fees on every trade. And this titan? He just knocked off competitors. Less competition in the queue, more liquidity for him. Fees? Just a cost of doing business. At $98K a week it's a rounding error. Polymarket thought they were crushing freeloaders. In reality they cleared the field for one predator. $889K profit. Largest single win $28K. 723 thousand profile views. Profit curve goes straight up without a single serious drop. A human without automation can't even come close to this result. We blink. Think. Hesitate. While your finger reaches for the mouse, his system already closed the position. A week ago I decided to test it. Not analyze. Not build theories. Just copy. He entered a position, I followed. BTC market, 15-minute window. Nothing complicated. I didn't even understand what was happening, just copied. Four hours later I closed. +$247. It didn't change my life. But it changed how I see money working on this market. I spent three years drawing lines in TradingView. Reading analysis. Watching streams. $247 in 4 hours copying someone else's trade blindly. Know what I felt? Not joy. Anger. At myself. For all those years trying to be smarter than the market instead of just standing behind someone who already is. Here he is: Most traders try to predict the future. This one just watches the present arrive 30 seconds early. Right now somewhere BTC is moving on Binance. Polymarket is still asleep. You have 30 seconds. Will you be the one selling to him at old prices? Or the one standing beside him?show more

$1,500 → $33,000 on 5min BTC markets in 2... days This is the new reality. It stops being gambling the moment you define an exact algorithm. Here are the recommendations on how to create the same trading bot: → Write your code in Rust – it offers C++ level speed, and there’s an official polymarket-client-sdk available. → Minimize Latency – your trading bot must be deployed in the same data center as Polymarket: AWS eu-west-2 (London). This ensures the lowest possible execution lag. → Price Discovery – Polymarket pulls prices from Chainlink, but Chainlink doesn’t "create" the price; it simply aggregates and broadcasts it. Use Binance – as the largest spot exchange, it is the primary source of price discovery. → Apply the Black-Scholes Model for binary options – this is exactly what will help you identify +EV opportunities by calculating all necessary Greeks and variables. → Don’t turn it into a casino – use the Kelly Criterion. It acts as your risk manager, calculating the optimal % of your bankroll for every single position. If you want to earn like trading bot devs – you need to think like them.show more

🚨 BREAKING: An American teenager just used the new... Qwen 3.6 Plus model to unlock an infinite money glitch on Polymarket. While Qwen 3.6 is currently smoking Claude, this kid used it to build a psychopathic trading bot dedicated entirely to 5-minute Bitcoin candles. Operating under the username nickwwwo, this script isn't analyzing macro trends or fed rates. It's predicting the literal next 300 seconds of BTC price action while the rest of the world sleeps. The stats are genuinely terrifying: ///> Total PnL: +$30,800 ///> Win Rate: 61.7% (on 5-minute binary options, this is basically time travel) ///> Total Gains: $55,018 --- Just look at the receipts: At 2:35 AM, the bot placed a $120 bet that BTC would drop. Exactly five minutes later, it cashed out $5,773. That is a 4,686% ROI in the time it takes to brush your teeth. Right now, half the timeline is trying to manually track his wallet to catch his entries. But on a 5-minute timeframe, if you're trading by hand, you're already exit liquidity. The play isn't to beat the bot, it's to clone it. 🧬 You can fully automate this and copytrade his exact moves using the ARES. The millisecond the nickwwwo algorithm enters a position, Ares mirrors it for your account. Try copying this wallet with ares: Stop fighting the machines, and let them print for you.show more

Math quant bot on Polymarket made over $457K PnL... in 20 days - he turned $7,387 → $457k profit it uses Markov Chains to find "mispriced" windows on BTC and ETH up/down markets - made 14,200+ predictions, with ~$22,850 avg. daily profit by exploiting gaps humans miss at 3AM strategy: a 1h BTC/ETH up/down market is a binary contract it pays $1 if event happens → $0 if not Markov Chains give you the probability of the next market state based on: > current state of the market (up / down / flat) > transition matrix built from live price data > diagonal persistence value - how stable the current state is formula: p̂ − market_price ≥ 0.05 AND P(j*, j*) ≥ 0.87 bot profile: - read article below to understand how Markov Chains are used to extract edge from prediction marketsshow more