BREAKING: Fed hike odds for September are actually falling,... not rising. CME FedWatch: roughly 30% chance of a hike. Down from 44% in early August. Down from 67% in late July. Goldman Sachs's own read: a September hike has become "very unlikely." - Citing softer retail sales, a slowing labor market, cooling inflation prints. - July's jobs report was the real trigger. - Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000. Estimates called for 85,000 gained. Third-largest monthly job loss since the pandemic. Wage growth: 3.2% trailing 12 months. Below inflation at 3.5%. Kalshi: 53% betting the Fed doesn't hike at all in 2026. 47% betting yes. Three FOMC members still dissented in favor of a hike back in July. The most hawkish split in a decade. But the labor data since then has pulled the market the other direction. Not toward higher rates. Toward the Fed staying put.show more

🚨 THE MARKET IS NOT READY FOR TODAY’S CPI... REPORT August inflation data drops TODAY at 8:30 AM ET. Yesterday’s PPI showed producer prices rose 0.4% in August, up from 0.1% in July. Now, comes the consumer side: • Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM, +3.4% YoY • Core CPI: +0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY Hot PPI doesn’t guarantee hot CPI. But an upside surprise would mean back-to-back inflation warnings, with markets pricing a 51% chance of a Fed hike next week (market Hot CPI = yields and the dollar jump, while tech likely gets hit. Cool CPI = rate-hike fears fade, and risk assets get room to rally. Sticky core CPI = the market stays trapped between weak growth and persistent inflation. With the Fed meeting next week, one surprise could reshape expectations for September’s decision. Limitless traders currently see just a 10% chance CPI comes in above 0.4%: Market: Only a 10% chance of an upside surprise. How expensive would being wrong be?show more

🚨WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED! FED projected to... hike interest rates by 25 BPS in October. And if you think this has no impact on global markets... Just months ago, 2026 was supposed to be the year of RATE CUTS. Now the market is preparing for another HIKE. And somehow, stocks are still sitting near the ATH. Something doesn’t add up: - Oil is above $100. - Diesel prices are near record ATH. - Inflation is still sticky. - Rates are already restrictive. And now the market thinks the Fed could tighten AGAIN. So why hasn’t the market broken yet? Because one thing is still keeping it alive: THE AI BOOM. And this is where almost everyone is getting it wrong. AI isn’t just pushing stocks higher. IT IS GIVING THE FED ROOM TO STAY AGGRESSIVE. Massive AI spending keeps growth alive while a handful of mega-cap stocks continue carrying the indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has less reason to back off. That creates a dangerous setup: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → Fed keeps rates higher → another hike becomes possible. Now add: $100+ oil → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room for cuts. October or December doesn’t matter. The bigger picture does. Months ago: RATE CUTS. Now: NO CUTS → HIKE → POSSIBLY ANOTHER HIKE. The market can survive this while AI keeps carrying it. The real problem starts when AI stops. If those stocks finally crack while rates are still rising and inflation is still hot, the market loses the ONE thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it gets ugly fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins. And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. - Stocks. - Metals. - Bitcoin. That’s the part most people are not prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity appears. I’m not afraid of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. I’ve been trading markets for 15+ years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level actually worth buying, I’ll post it here like I always do. Turn notifications on. You’ll want this chart later.show more

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD JUST STARTED The Fed... is now projected to hike another 25 bps in October. Sit with that for a second. Months ago, 2026 was supposed to be the year of rate cuts. Now the market is bracing for another hike. And somehow stocks are still parked near all-time highs. None of this adds up: → Oil above $100. → Diesel near record highs. → Inflation still sticky. → Rates already restrictive. And now the Fed might tighten again. So why hasn't the market cracked yet? One thing is holding it up. The AI boom. And here's where almost everyone gets it wrong. AI isn't just pushing stocks higher. It's giving the Fed room to stay aggressive. Massive AI spending keeps growth alive while a handful of mega-caps carry the entire index. As long as that holds, the Fed has zero reason to back off. That's the trap: AI boom → growth stays strong → inflation stays sticky → Fed keeps rates high → another hike becomes possible. Now stack oil on top: $100+ crude → higher energy costs → more inflation pressure → even less room to cut. October or December, doesn't matter. The direction is what matters. Months ago it was cuts. Now it's no cuts, then a hike, then possibly another. The market survives all of this as long as AI keeps carrying it. The real problem starts when AI stops. If those names finally crack while rates are climbing and inflation is still hot, the market loses the one thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it moves fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity vanishes → forced selling starts. And once forced selling begins, funds don't sell what they want to sell. They sell what they can. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. Everything at once. That's the part nobody's prepared for. And that's exactly where the next real buying opportunity shows up. I'm not scared of the dump. I'm waiting for it. 15+ years trading, and the pattern never changes. When the liquidation hits and I see a level actually worth buying, I'll post it here like always. Turn notifications on. You'll want this chart later.show more

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump GOES OFF on the... Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, demanding the Fed lower them to 1% PERCENT — not RAISE them toward 4.00% 47 says he's DONE effectively subsidizing other nations: "Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR. Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment! If we stopped Trading with every country that we have a Deficit with, which is most of them, we would make, at least, 1.5 Trillion Dollars a year." "The word “Deficit” is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS. We are “carrying” almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer. LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!" 🇺🇸 Rates now went up to 3.75%-4.00%, a 25 basis point hike Sadly, this decision was UNANIMOUS. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh agreed with it Stop being terrified of growth causing inflation and listen to Trump. LOWER THE RATES!show more

I think the market is overpricing a Fed hike.... Going in with 50% of a new $5K predictions portfolio, and may increase sizing if the odds for a hike spike more on Friday's CPI print. I won't claim claim to have much differentiated alpha here or to have a high degree of certainty, but when I see genuinley attractive odds, I like to go for them. We're in a trap here. If Warsh hikes and the US government can't afford the interest on debt that's 120% of GDP, the long end goes higher. If Warsh is dovish and inflation stays hot, the long end goes higher. The only logical course of action is to step up long end buybacks more and more aggressively because both scenarios end the same way? The cheapest fix is getting the short rate down so Bessent can fund more buybacks with cheap bills and If that still doesn't hold the long end, the Fed steps in and buys it directly. Now may not be the time to cut, but it's certainly not the time to hike. Don't forget Bessent and Warsh both worked for Druck with the same macro worldview, and Bessent pushed him for the job. Why would they not be working towards the same strategy?show more

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Yesterday, the Fed... hiked rates by 25 bps for the first time in 3 years. Today, stocks are rallying like nothing happened. Something doesn't add up: 16 of 18 Fed policymakers expect at least ONE MORE HIKE this year. Just 9 months ago, markets were pricing in 3 RATE CUTS for 2026. Oil is above $100. Diesel prices just hit RECORD HIGHS. And the Fed now expects 3.7% inflation in 2026. But the market still hasn’t broken. WHY? Because one thing is keeping it alive: THE AI BOOM. And this is where almost everyone is getting it wrong. AI is not just holding the market up. IT IS GIVING THE FED ROOM TO KEEP HIKING. Massive AI spending is keeping growth alive while a handful of mega-cap stocks keep the indexes near the highs. As long as that continues, the Fed has less reason to back off. That creates a dangerous setup: AI boom → stronger growth → sticky inflation → higher rates for longer Now add: $100+ oil → record diesel → higher costs across the economy → even less room for cuts October or December doesn’t matter. Nine months ago: 3 CUTS. Today: HIKE → ANOTHER HIKE. The market can survive that while AI keeps carrying it. The problem starts when AI stops. If those stocks finally crack while rates are still rising and energy inflation is still hot, the market loses the one thing absorbing all that pressure. Then it gets ugly fast: AI cracks → indexes fall → liquidity disappears → forced selling begins And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they WANT. They sell what they CAN. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. That’s the part most people are not prepared for. And that’s exactly where the next real buying opportunity appears. I’m not afraid of the dump. I’M WAITING FOR IT. Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years. When the liquidation starts and I see the level worth buying, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.show more

🚨 WARNING: THE SITUATION JUST TOOK A VERY BAD... TURN The Fed is now expected to raise rates another 25 bps in October. Think about that for a moment. Just months ago, markets were expecting 2026 to be dominated by rate cuts. Now investors are preparing for another hike. Yet somehow, stocks are still hovering close to record highs. Something doesn’t quite add up: → Oil is above $100. → Diesel prices are near historical highs. → Inflation remains stubborn. → Rates are already restrictive. And now another Fed hike is back on the table. So what is keeping the market afloat? AI. But this is where most people are missing the bigger picture. The AI boom isn’t only lifting equities. It’s also giving the Fed more room to remain hawkish. Huge AI investments are keeping economic growth strong, while a small group of mega-cap companies continues to support the major indexes. As long as that continues, the Fed has little incentive to ease policy. That’s the real trap: AI boom → stronger growth → persistent inflation → rates stay elevated → another hike becomes possible. Now add oil to the equation: $100+ crude → rising energy costs → additional inflation pressure → even less room for rate cuts. Whether the next move comes in October or December isn’t the main issue. The direction is. A few months ago, the expectation was cuts. Now we’re talking about no cuts, followed by a hike, and potentially more tightening afterward. The market can absorb all of this as long as AI continues carrying it. The real danger begins when AI loses momentum. If those mega-cap names finally break down while rates are rising and inflation remains elevated, the market could lose the main force absorbing all that pressure. Then things can move very quickly: AI breaks → indexes drop → liquidity dries up → forced selling begins. And when forced selling hits, funds don’t necessarily sell what they want. They sell whatever they can. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. Everything. That’s the part most people aren’t prepared for. And ironically, that’s where the next major buying opportunity could appear. I’m not afraid of the selloff. I’m waiting for it. I’ve been trading for 15+ years, and the pattern remains the same. When liquidation arrives and I see a level that genuinely makes sense to buy, I’ll share it here just like I always do. Turn on notifications. You’ll want to see this chart later.show more

Paradis Macro Report [July 8]: US & Iran |... AI Trade | Macro Data | Hedges | Catalysts The US/Iran ceasefire has collapsed... Overnight, the US struck >80 Iranian targets e.g. air defences, coastal radar and small boats in response to Iranian attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, incl. an LNG carrier from Qatar. With Trump saying “it’s just a waste of time dealing with them.” at the NATO summit today. Trump has threatened more strikes tonight, while the Treasury has revoked its waiver on Iranian crude sales. As expected, Brent and WTI crude oil rose today due to 1/5 oil volumes passing via Hormuz. For now, this is a “wait and see what happens” situation rather than actively trading the news. It's all very volatile, as seen with semis names recently w/ ~$2.8T of market cap being wiped out across the ecosystem at the end of June alone. We all know that semis have been selling off aggressively for the past couple of weeks, which hasn't been helped by the broader macro landscape with the war. In my view, it's definitely a risk-off market for the time being with the hyperscaler earnings at the end of July being the next critical catalyst. Maybe good timing to get all this war nonsense out the way beforehand? Korea is certainly the epicenter of the issue here with KOSPI being down over 20% in just over two weeks. Samsung put up staggering earnings earlier in the week where they became the most profitable company globally ahead of the likes of $NVDA. But the stock has sold off over 12% since.... Clearly, nothing is fundamentally wrong with Samsung. They're booming. So when a historic earnings gets sold, that's most likely a combination of de-leveraging / profit taking. Well, tbh, it doesn't really matter what the issue is, fundamentally they're strong and will continue to be strong. Then shifting back to the US, you'll hopefully remember the rates backdrop that we're currently in from my previous reports. Ultimately, the Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% in June but there's a hawkish undertone with 9/18 participants projecting at least one hike in 2026. Today's FOMC minutes highlighted that the committee is split roughly 50/50, with a few officials seeing a case for a hike. The 10 Year Treasury Yield is currently at 4.571% at the time of writing this. And while the shocking June payrolls miss (just 57k jobs vs 115k expected) knocked Sep'26 hike odds from about 2/3 to roughly 1/2, oil's spike now revives the inflation case. Meaning that every high beta/multiple growth stock lots of us are invested in are caught between a hawkish Fed and a rising oil price. And looking at other data points such as: - VIX at 16.8 - High yield spreads at circa 2.75% - Gold falling nearly 1% Shows that the geopolitical premium that was build since ~Feb has already unwound significantly. In simple terms: we're in a valuation correction environment (as we know) in crowded AI names w/ a war premium bolted on top. Evidenced by the ongoing rotation into sectors like energy, defensives and large caps - away from smaller cap names such as those upstream AI supply chain bottlenecks. In terms of near-term events: - SK Hynix Nasdaq ADR (10 July) - June CPI (14 July) - $TSM earnings (16 July) So to summarise: I'm viewing the current macro picture as a 3 layered cake: 1. Geopolitical shock with US/Iran 2. AI positioning unwinds/deleveraging 3. Hawkish Fed rates environment And in terms of key data points to watch for: 1. VIX spiking above ~22 = more market turbulence 2. High-yield spreads through 3.25% 3. Brent beyond $90 All would mean something worse is going on rather than just a sector rotation that we're in now. Which I view as short term since AI fundamentals will superceed any short term noice. Until then, (NFA) hedges are cheap e.g. energy, defensives which are working right now. Also defensive tech as I like to call it i.e. software.show more

🚨IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS - MONDAY BLEEDS Jackson Hole... just pressed the "WE'RE F#KED" button That wasn't a calm speech the market wanted And what almost nobody is connecting: Is that these 3 things stacked up together might actually beat the shi out of the recent profit SP500 made heres why. ONE: the Fed just turned hawkish, right into decision season. Warsh said he's "committed to fighting inflation." Called it above target. September hike odds spiked off that ONE speech. another Fed president backed him same day. The market wanted clarity. it got clarity, and the clarity was hawkish. TWO: rising yields already broke this market once this month. A yield spike caused a real selloff just last week. a hawkish Fed pushing yields higher again is the exact mechanism that hits expensive AI/tech names first. THREE: the leadership is already cracking. Nvidia and Intel dragged the Nasdaq lower the same day as the hawkish pivot. And this is happening in a market where the top 10 stocks are the most concentrated ever recorded. When the few stocks holding up the whole index start wobbling, into a hawkish Fed, into rising yields, that's not 3 separate stories. Thats 1 story with 3 symptoms. im not calling monday a generational crash. But if yields keep climbing and semis keep bleeding, this is exactly the setup that turns a quiet monday into a violent one. Follow me if you want to actually survive in the current market.show more

The US Treasury bought yen on Friday and paid... for it in euros. Then it pointed Tokyo at a Federal Reserve facility that turns US Treasuries into dollars without selling them. The bond Washington feared Japan might dump is now the collateral for not dumping it. The Fed wrote that purpose down in 2020. Three dates. July 23rd. The Japanese yen hits 163.99 per American dollar, weakest since 1986. July 29th. The Fed holds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, three officials dissent for a hike, and the 30-year Treasury closes at 5.21 percent, highest since 2007. July 31st. The New York Fed sells euros and buys yen for the Treasury through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, per the Financial Times. A notepad in front of Scott Bessent at Camp David is photographed at 11.33 that morning reading buy Japanese yen 5 to 10 billion. First US operation to strengthen the yen since 1998. August 3rd. Tokyo confirms, and says it will tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility. Long yields fall. Paying in euros was the tell. Selling American dollars to buy Japanese Yen would have broadcast a weak dollar policy with US core inflation at 3.3 percent. Washington sold its own euro reserves instead and bought the yen support without the signal. The facility is the real story here folks! FIMA lets an approved foreign central bank hand Treasuries to the Fed for dollars, up to 60 billion outstanding per counterparty, on terms out to seven days, then take them back. When the Fed extended it in July 2020 it said in writing that the facility would support the Treasury market by supplying dollars "other than sales of securities in the open market." That machine was built 6 years ago for exactly this situation. Last week it was aimed for the first time. Follow the loop very carefully. A weak yen forces Tokyo to buy yen. Buying yen burns dollar reserves, and Japan's reserves have already fallen from 1.41 trillion in February to 1.31 trillion at the end of May, 77 billion of it in May alone. Rebuilding them by selling Treasuries lifts US yields. FIMA lends dollars against those same Treasuries instead, and the bonds never reach the market. One security, three roles. The asset at risk. The collateral the Fed accepts. The funding for the currency defense. Now the part that decides everything. FIMA is open to central banks and official institutions. It is closed to Japanese banks, insurers, pension funds, and every leveraged carry book on earth. The trillion plus of Treasuries attributed to Japan in US data is a country total covering all Japanese holders, not a government portfolio.... Washington has built a firewall around the official seller. There is none around the private one. The Bank of Japan held at 1%, 8 to 1, one member pushing 1.25%. Headline core inflation reads 1.6 percent while the bank forecasts core clearly above 2 percent in the second half of the fiscal year, citing wages, oil and the weak yen. September is live and nothing is promised. The Fed sits at 3.50 to 3.75. The gap runs 2.5 points at its narrowest. US jobs land Friday. Washington can repo away a government's need to sell. It cannot repo away everyone else's decision to.show more

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! The... U.S. just hit the panic button. The odds of a Fed rate hike in September have jumped to 70%. U.S. Treasury is launching a $1 TRILLION buyback program to prevent a market crash. 99% of people will lose everything next week. And it won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will crash. Metals will dump. Bitcoin will collapse even harder. Insiders already know what's coming. They are not “buying the dip.” They are raising cash, cutting risk, and positioning for a catastrophic market event. Meanwhile, alarm bells are ringing across the global financial system. China is dumping U.S. Treasuries at an alarming rate, with holdings dropping to the lowest levels since 2008. Japan's bond market volatility has forced the BOJ back into QE, but it's not enough to stem the tide. The odds of a Fed rate hike in September have jumped to 70%. In response, the U.S. Treasury is launching a $1 TRILLION buyback program to prevent a market crash. Kevin Warsh already sounds hawkish at the Jackson Hole conference. This means interest rates will stay higher for longer. And global liquidity is disappearing fast: → Japanese bond yields are surging → Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening → Global bond markets are under heavy pressure → Volatility is spreading across asset classes → Liquidity is tightening worldwide It's already spiraling out of control. When this accelerates, there will be no time left to react. Risk assets won't “dip.” They will DUMP HARD. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability, the entire framework changes. I have spent 10+ tracking macro and systemic market reactions like this. I will share my next move here publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it will be too late.show more

This could be one of the most volatile weeks... crypto has seen in a while. Senate first procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is expected on Tuesday. One day later, the Fed announces its interest-rate decision, with markets now pricing close to a 90% chance of a 25bps hike. Neither event leaves much room for traders to relax. ETH is already moving like the market knows what’s coming. Sharp wicks, quick reversals and no real commitment in either direction. A large part of the expected hike is probably already reflected in price by now. That doesn’t remove the risk of another sell-off when the decision arrives but it does raise the possibility of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction once the uncertainty is gone. ETF side is helping too. US spot Ethereum ETFs recently recorded around $218M in weekly net inflows, marking a third consecutive positive week. So while short-term traders are reducing risk ahead of the Fed, regulated capital is still adding exposure. Chart comes down to a few levels for me, • $2,405 - main demand and structural invalidation • $2,520 - short-term pivot • $2,600 - breakout confirmation • $2,750 - first expansion target Holding above $2,405 keeps consolidation intact. A clean reclaim of $2,520 would bring $2,600 back into play. If ETH gets through that area after the Fed and holds it, $2,750 becomes the next level I’m watching. This week is about surviving the volatility. Stronger move may begin once the vote, the Fed and the leverage around both events are finally behind us.show more

There was a time when a truck driver, factory... worker, roofer, mechanic, lineman, warehouse worker, or machine operator could support a family on one income. Not rich. Not luxury. Just a house, a car, kids, and stability. That world existed. Then America decided cheap labor mattered more than protecting the value of American work. Factories were outsourced. Borders were flooded. Visa programs expanded. Contract labor exploded. Corporations learned something dangerous. When labor becomes unlimited, wages stop rising. CEO's go from being millionaires to billionaires and politicians are relatively cheap. Younger generations see it clearly. When millions more workers flood the market, especially in middle and lower wage jobs, the bargaining power of American workers collapses. Employers no longer compete for labor. Labor competes for employers. Construction wages flatten. Entry-level jobs disappear. Young men work two or three jobs and still cannot get ahead. Marriage and family formation get delayed. Home ownership collapses for the next generation. We were told this would not hurt American workers. It has. Immigrants, legal and illegal, now make up roughly one-third of the construction trades workforce. In many areas the share is far higher. The wage suppression in the very jobs that once built the middle class is real and persistent. People try to say this is about hating immigrants. That is a hard conversation when the people making the accusation either benefit from the impact or are not affected by it at all. This is about a simple question. Why did America stop protecting the economic value of its own citizens?show more

🚨 THE U.S. TREASURY JUST HANDCUFFED THE FED TO... JAPAN: ONE HIKE AND THE TREASURY TRADE UNWINDS America’s biggest foreign creditor just became the FED’s problem. The Federal Reserve almost certainly cannot raise rates at the Sept 15–16 meeting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has boxed the new chair in with two coordinated market operations that only work if the Fed stays on hold. First: Bessent is buying long-term Treasuries to cap long-end yields. The United States is already sitting on roughly $40 trillion of debt and does not have spare cash for that program. So Treasury funds the buybacks by issuing more short-term bills. If the Fed hikes, those new bills immediately reprice higher. The government would be paying a steeper rate on fresh short-term paper just to finance the long-bond purchases that were supposed to keep debt-service costs contained. That loop only holds if policy rates stay put. Second: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, about $1.1 trillion. Japanese domestic yields have been rising, making JGBs more competitive with Treasuries. A disorderly yen slide raises the risk that Tokyo sells U.S. paper to defend its currency or reallocate. Bessent used Exchange Stabilization Fund euros to buy yen in a rare joint intervention with Japan… not to be generous, but to reduce the odds Japan dumps Treasuries and drives U.S. long yields higher. The calendar is the detonator. The Fed meets Sept 15–16. The Bank of Japan meets Sept 17–18. Bessent just met BOJ Governor Ueda and pressed for “decisive” monetary steps to correct yen undervaluation. If the Fed hikes two days before Japan’s meeting, the BOJ is under pressure to follow or the yen weakens again and the intervention is wasted. If both hike, the rate differential that Bessent tried to stabilize collapses, carry positions unwind, and the incentive for Japan to hold Treasuries deteriorates. That is the bind. Bessent’s long-bond buybacks require cheap short-term funding. His yen operation requires Japan not to sell Treasuries and not to be forced into a catch-up hike. A Fed increase in the next two weeks threatens both legs at once. The Fed’s next decision is no longer just a domestic inflation call. It is whether Bessent’s Treasury-Japan construction holds or whether the world’s two largest government-bond markets start pulling against each other.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ IF THE FED HIKES BEFORE JAPAN, BESSENT’S ENTIRE BOND STRATEGY COLLAPSESshow more

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Markets are pricing... in a Fed rate hike in September. At the same time, President Trump is demanding the “lowest interest rates in the world.” Something doesn’t add up: Higher rates mean: → Stocks dump → Metals sell off → Bitcoin gets hit even harder And the warning signs are already here: → China dumping U.S. Treasuries at the fastest pace since 2008 → Japanese bond yields surging → Foreign Treasury demand weakening → Kevin Warsh turning increasingly hawkish This is how the domino effect begins: Bond stress → liquidity disappears → forced selling → risk assets dump And once forced selling starts, funds don’t sell what they want. They sell what they can. Stocks. Metals. Bitcoin. That’s where most people get wiped out. And where people sitting on cash get the buying opportunity they’ve been waiting for. I’m not afraid of the dump. I’m waiting for it. Reminder: I’ve called all the major market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. When I start buying again, I’ll post every move here first. Turn notifications on.show more

Jerome Powell might go down as one of the... most hated Fed Chairs ever And ironically, one of the most successful Trump’s spent years harassing him with names like “moron” & “TOTAL LOSER” At the same time, the left blamed him for “crushing workers” with rate hikes Both sides roasted him nonstop But let’s look at the actual scoreboard: > Inflation peaked at 9.1% > Fell back near the Fed’s 2% target > Unemployment stayed historically low > No major recession > No financial crisis > Economy kept growing Most economists in 2022–2023 thought a hard landing was inevitable Instead Powell pulled off one of the rarest outcomes in macro: A soft landing People also forget the context: > COVID shutdowns > supply chain chaos > massive fiscal stimulus > war-driven commodity shocks > banking stress > tariff pressure Then Powell delivered the fastest hiking cycle in 40 years without breaking the system Was he perfect? No The “transitory inflation” call aged badly and hikes probably came later than they should have But outcomes matter And the outcome was far better than almost anyone expected That’s probably why the internet turned him into a meme AI songs Techno edits K-pop fan cams “Jerome Powell saves America” videos One of the weirdest arcs in modern finance The guy both political sides hated may have quietly pulled off one of the best Fed performances in decades Wish you would have cut rates a bit earlier but can't knock his game And a fun fact is, he hasn't retired He's still on the Fed's board of governors Just no longer is the Fed chairshow more

Ending 2025 Take On The U.S. Economy…And An Apology... From The Bottom Of My Heart For My Realistic Yet Pessimistic Takes On The State Of The Economy…. As 2025 ends, the U.S. economy still looks solid at the surface. Stocks are higher. GDP prints are strong. Unemployment remains low by historical standards. But once you step back and connect households, labor, credit, and real world activity, the picture becomes more fragile. This isn’t an economy in freefall. But it is one being carried by a shrinking set of supports while pressure builds underneath. Growth and Markets: Real Numbers, Narrow Support Real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the strongest in two years, driven mainly by consumer spending (+3.5%) and exports (+8.8%). On paper, that looks like acceleration. The issue is what kind of spending is doing the work. Roughly 70% of GDP is consumption, and an increasing share reflects non discretionary or imputed costs, not confidence. Healthcare alone accounts for 17% of PCE, running near $3.6T annualized. That lifts GDP, but it says more about rising mandatory expenses than broad consumer strength. Markets told a different story. The S&P 500 gained 17–19%, the Nasdaq 21%, and the Dow 11%, powered by AI optimism and expectations of easier Fed policy. Asset prices moved ahead. Household reality did not. Labor and Sentiment: Cooling Is Becoming Visible The labor market is no longer tightening. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.1% in January, with just 64,000 jobs added. Underemployment (U-6) climbed to 8.7%. Layoffs reached 1.17 million through November, up 54% year over year, concentrated in tech, healthcare, and industrials. Consumer sentiment reflects that shift. The University of Michigan index ended December at 52.9, nearly 30% lower YoY, while the Conference Board index fell to 89.1, its fifth straight monthly decline. Household Stress Is Broadening Debt pressure is spreading across categories… • Credit card delinquencies: 12.4%, exceeding 20% in lower income areas • Auto loans: 5.02%, a 15 year high • Student loans: 9.4%, rising sharply after repayment resumed • Mortgages: 3.76%, with FHA near 10.8% Bankruptcies are rising alongside it. Filings are up 8–10% YoY, with 717 large corporate cases, the highest since 2010. Individual filings rose 8%, with roughly 41,000 in November alone. CRE, Trade, and the Physical Economy Commercial real estate remains a pressure point. Office vacancy rates sit near 19%, well above long term norms. Industrial vacancies have edged higher, while retail remains comparatively tight. Trade policy added another layer of strain in 2025. Average tariffs moved above 15%, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 35% on Canadian goods complicating supply chains. Trucking: A Quiet Signal Freight continues to confirm the slowdown in goods demand. Truck tonnage rose just 0.2% in November, but remains down nearly 7% YoY. Spot rates are lower, and load postings are down 15–22%, pointing to soft volumes and ongoing capacity adjustment. Overall The U.S. economy is increasingly unbalanced. Growth is being padded by non discretionary spending, markets are running ahead of household fundamentals, labor is cooling, and credit stress is spreading. This is the late cycle phase where momentum fades quietly, long before the data forces a name onto it.show more

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS HAPPENING... Iran just... attacked THREE ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump already drew the line. Publicly, on the record. Any attack in the Strait violates the agreement. Those were his exact words. Not an interpretation. Not diplomatic language. A direct statement with a direct consequence. The consequence is now in motion. US-Iran insiders are saying US forces may respond anytime. Not tomorrow, not after another round of talks. ANYTIME. Which means the ceasefire that the market spent two weeks pricing in is functionally dead as of this morning. Every rally built on peace-deal optimism, every rotation back into risk assets. Every fund that reduced energy exposure, betting that the Strait stays open. Oil is already above $70. And that's before a single US response. If the deal officially collapses and the Strait becomes an active conflict zone... Oil may return to levels above $100. JUST IMAGINE. 100 DOLLARS. Because investors remember how it pumped after the beginning of the US-IRAN war. The damage is already showing up globally. China's stock market has lost over ¥1.1 TRILLION. South Korea is down over ₩300 TRILLION. U.S. market lost $200 BILLION at open. These aren't rounding errors; these are the first dominoes falling in real time while US markets are still figuring out what just happened. All of it just became the wrong trade simultaneously. Here's what the sequence looks like from here. US responds to the attack. Iran escalates. The Strait goes from contested to an active conflict zone. Oil doesn't reprice gradually; it gaps. Tanker insurance rates go vertical. Shipping costs spike. Every inflation number that was supposed to come down this quarter gets revised higher. The Fed was already hiking; now they hike into an oil shock. And the market that was sitting at all-time highs on eight stocks with no margin for error has to absorb all of this before the weekend. There is no version of today that ends well for risk assets. The deal was the last thing holding this together. It's gone. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Many will regret not following me earlier...show more