🚨 BREAKING THE FED SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE - ALMOST... CERTAIN OR NOT?! WARSH HAS MADE HIS PRIORITY CLEAR: "FIGHTING INFLATION IS MY JOB" - AND THE FED IS READY TO ACT. WITH THE NEXT FOMC MEETING ON SEPTEMBER 16, RATE HIKE ODDS HAVE PUMPED TO AROUND 52%. NOW THAT BASICALLY A COIN FLIP - BUT THESE ODDS COULD CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE DAY X DUE TO NEW DATA. MARKETS HATE ONE THING MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE - UNCERTAINTY!👀show more

🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 U.S. FED JUST LITERALLY CONFIRMED A... RATE HIKE IN 2026! INFLATION, CONSUMER DATA, AND OTHER KEY INDICATORS ARE GETTING WORSE... NEW FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH IS PREPARING MARKETS FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES. ODDS OF A RATE HIKE IMMEDIATELY PUMPED TO 69%. THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...show more

IMPORTANT: 🇺🇸FED could hike interest rates by 25 BPS... in September Odds for a rate hike have just pumped to 39.9% and keep pumping This is not good for markets...show more

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 FED is expected to hike interest... rates by 50-75 BPS this year Odds for a rate hike in September have pumped to 52.7% This is not good for the markets...show more

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE INTEREST... RATE BY 50BPS THIS YEAR ODDS HAVE PUMPED TO 34% AFTER THE INFALATION DATA RELEASE THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR MARKETS...show more

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED HAS ALMOST CONFIRMED TWO INTEREST... RATE HIKES IN 2026 ODDS OF A 50BPS RATE HIKE HAVE JUST PUMPED TO 33% FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...show more

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 THE FED COULD SHOCK MARKETS WITH... A 25 BPS RATE HIKE TODAY. ODDS JUST JUMPED TO 25%. A SURPRISE HIKE WOULD BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST FED SHOCKS IN YEARS. THIS IS SO BAD FOR MARKETS.show more

🩸 IMPORTANT: 🇺🇸 FED could hike interest rates by... 25 BPS in September Odds of a rate hike just jumped to 61.9% for the first time This is not good for markets...show more

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 FED Chair Kevin Warsh just said... he will support a rate hike if inflation comes in higher than expected The next core CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday August 12 Odds for a 25 bps interest rate hike have just risen above 56.9% This is not good for markets...show more

🚨 BREAKING THE FED WILL INJECT $2,122,000,000.00 INTO THE... MARKETS TOMORROW AT 9:00 AM ET, MINUTES BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPENS. KEVIN WARSH JUST ORDERED THE FED TO START PRINTING TO PREVENT A HUGE CRASH CAUSED BY THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE! THIS IS ONLY THE FIRST INJECTION - THE FULL PLAN WILL BE PUBLISHED BY THE NEW YORK FED. THIS ISN'T STANDARD POLICY - THIS IS A RESCUE OPERATION! THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR: THE FED IS ALREADY PREPARING FOR SERIOUS MARKET STRESS AROUND THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE!👀show more

🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 THE FED WILL INJECT $4,243,000,000.00 INTO... THE MARKETS TOMORROW AT 9:00 AM ET, MINUTES BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPENS. KEVIN WARSH JUST ORDERED THE FED TO START PRINTING TO PREVENT A HUGE CRASH CAUSED BY THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE! THIS ISN'T STANDARD POLICY - THIS IS A RESCUE OPERATION! THE FED KNOWS A SEPTEMBER HIKE WILL SEND SHOCKWAVES THROUGH GLOBAL MARKETS.👀show more

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸FED COULD HIKE INTEREST RATES BY 25... BPS IN JUST 2 DAYS ODDS HAVE PUMPED TO 37.9% FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER INFLATION DATA RELEASE THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...show more

🇺🇸 The worst possible welcome gift for a new... Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is already facing his first major inflation shock CPI jumps to 4.1%. Highest in 3 years Core CPI jumps to 2.8%. Highest in 9 months Trump wanted rate cuts Warsh wanted rate cuts Inflation just said: not happening Rate cut odds: below 1% Rate hike odds: above 70% If the Fed hikes to crush inflation Markets get crushed too I've been warning about this for weeksshow more

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounded hawkish... at Jackson Hole - Inflation is still too high - The 2% target remains the priority - The economy is still strong - Rates may not be restrictive enough - Rate cuts could be harder to come by Bottom line: September rate-cut hopes just took a hitshow more

BREAKING: The FOMC decision drops today at 2 PM... ET. Rates have been held at 3.50% to 3.75% since December. But this meeting is different. CME FedWatch just priced in a 37.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The highest odds seen all year. Oil above $100 a barrel. Gas up 38% since February. Kevin Warsh scrapped forward guidance entirely. No hints before the announcement. Just data. 62.1% still say hold. But markets haven't priced this much uncertainty into a "routine" meeting in years. A hold confirms the Fed sees inflation as temporary. A hike confirms it doesn't. 2 PM ET. Watch the statement, not the headlines.show more

🚨FED’S WALLER SAYS CURRENT FED RATES MAY BE ENOUGH!... Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he sees early signs of disinflation and, if that holds in the next two weeks of data, he would back keeping the funds rate where it is at the Sept. 15-16 meeting. He said there is no rush to cut until more progress shows, and that waiting one meeting is cheap. Hot inflation could still push him toward a hike.show more

I think the market is overpricing a Fed hike.... Going in with 50% of a new $5K predictions portfolio, and may increase sizing if the odds for a hike spike more on Friday's CPI print. I won't claim claim to have much differentiated alpha here or to have a high degree of certainty, but when I see genuinley attractive odds, I like to go for them. We're in a trap here. If Warsh hikes and the US government can't afford the interest on debt that's 120% of GDP, the long end goes higher. If Warsh is dovish and inflation stays hot, the long end goes higher. The only logical course of action is to step up long end buybacks more and more aggressively because both scenarios end the same way? The cheapest fix is getting the short rate down so Bessent can fund more buybacks with cheap bills and If that still doesn't hold the long end, the Fed steps in and buys it directly. Now may not be the time to cut, but it's certainly not the time to hike. Don't forget Bessent and Warsh both worked for Druck with the same macro worldview, and Bessent pushed him for the job. Why would they not be working towards the same strategy?show more

🚨 THE U.S. TREASURY JUST HANDCUFFED THE FED TO... JAPAN: ONE HIKE AND THE TREASURY TRADE UNWINDS America’s biggest foreign creditor just became the FED’s problem. The Federal Reserve almost certainly cannot raise rates at the Sept 15–16 meeting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has boxed the new chair in with two coordinated market operations that only work if the Fed stays on hold. First: Bessent is buying long-term Treasuries to cap long-end yields. The United States is already sitting on roughly $40 trillion of debt and does not have spare cash for that program. So Treasury funds the buybacks by issuing more short-term bills. If the Fed hikes, those new bills immediately reprice higher. The government would be paying a steeper rate on fresh short-term paper just to finance the long-bond purchases that were supposed to keep debt-service costs contained. That loop only holds if policy rates stay put. Second: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, about $1.1 trillion. Japanese domestic yields have been rising, making JGBs more competitive with Treasuries. A disorderly yen slide raises the risk that Tokyo sells U.S. paper to defend its currency or reallocate. Bessent used Exchange Stabilization Fund euros to buy yen in a rare joint intervention with Japan… not to be generous, but to reduce the odds Japan dumps Treasuries and drives U.S. long yields higher. The calendar is the detonator. The Fed meets Sept 15–16. The Bank of Japan meets Sept 17–18. Bessent just met BOJ Governor Ueda and pressed for “decisive” monetary steps to correct yen undervaluation. If the Fed hikes two days before Japan’s meeting, the BOJ is under pressure to follow or the yen weakens again and the intervention is wasted. If both hike, the rate differential that Bessent tried to stabilize collapses, carry positions unwind, and the incentive for Japan to hold Treasuries deteriorates. That is the bind. Bessent’s long-bond buybacks require cheap short-term funding. His yen operation requires Japan not to sell Treasuries and not to be forced into a catch-up hike. A Fed increase in the next two weeks threatens both legs at once. The Fed’s next decision is no longer just a domestic inflation call. It is whether Bessent’s Treasury-Japan construction holds or whether the world’s two largest government-bond markets start pulling against each other.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ IF THE FED HIKES BEFORE JAPAN, BESSENT’S ENTIRE BOND STRATEGY COLLAPSESshow more

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! The... U.S. just hit the panic button. The odds of a Fed rate hike in September have jumped to 70%. U.S. Treasury is launching a $1 TRILLION buyback program to prevent a market crash. 99% of people will lose everything next week. And it won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will crash. Metals will dump. Bitcoin will collapse even harder. Insiders already know what's coming. They are not “buying the dip.” They are raising cash, cutting risk, and positioning for a catastrophic market event. Meanwhile, alarm bells are ringing across the global financial system. China is dumping U.S. Treasuries at an alarming rate, with holdings dropping to the lowest levels since 2008. Japan's bond market volatility has forced the BOJ back into QE, but it's not enough to stem the tide. The odds of a Fed rate hike in September have jumped to 70%. In response, the U.S. Treasury is launching a $1 TRILLION buyback program to prevent a market crash. Kevin Warsh already sounds hawkish at the Jackson Hole conference. This means interest rates will stay higher for longer. And global liquidity is disappearing fast: → Japanese bond yields are surging → Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening → Global bond markets are under heavy pressure → Volatility is spreading across asset classes → Liquidity is tightening worldwide It's already spiraling out of control. When this accelerates, there will be no time left to react. Risk assets won't “dip.” They will DUMP HARD. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability, the entire framework changes. I have spent 10+ tracking macro and systemic market reactions like this. I will share my next move here publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it will be too late.show more

🚨THIS IS THE END FOR solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr Most traders think... this rally isn’t over yet. But the market is starting to send a different signal. Inflation is picking up again. The Fed is becoming more hawkish. And rate cuts are getting pushed further away. Meanwhile, mega-caps are holding up solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr. Now those leaders are starting to lose momentum. We’ve seen this setup before. 2018 → almost -20% 2022 → roughly -25% And this time the market is even more concentrated. One bad catalyst could change everything very quickly. My target: solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr ~7,800 → ~6,000 That’s around a 25% drop. The final push higher could still happen first. But I wouldn’t be buying this market aggressively here. The next move is what matters. Watch solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr closely. I’ll post the warning before it becomes obvious.show more

$BTC My plan hasn’t changed My plan for #BTC:... 1. First long zone – 64,700 (already opened) 2. Second long zone – 62,500/61,250 3. Target – 69K/72K Today we’re going to see high volatility. Everyone says the FED will hike rates today, but in my opinion the rate will stay unchanged and they’ll raise it in September. So I’m expecting $BTC to recover to 69K/72K, and after that we’ll see the final drop. If anything changes, I’ll let you know! DYOR As a reminder, I warned about the bull trap at $82K and the summer drop. MY NEXT CALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST ONE OF THIS CYCLE. TURN ON NOTIFICATIONS. MOST PEOPLE WILL FOLLOW ME TOO LATE.show more