We’ve officially crossed $50,000 total profit on Kalshi! 🥂... Halfway to the $100K goal Here is a long post on what I've learned to succeed on Prediction Markets 1. Find a niche category of markets to focus in If you truly want to have an edge, you need to be an expert in your category. Don’t spread yourself too thin by trying to stay on top of too many markets. 2. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is When you find a market that you think is wildly mispriced after just reading the title, take a pause, pull up the full market contract with resolution criteria and try to understand what you could be missing. While acting quickly can be profitable in reacting to new developments, it can also lead to some big losses if you’re not careful to confirm you fully understand the contract. 3. News trading is still one of the best strategies These markets are always open and operating 24/7. If you are dialed in to new developments in your niche, you can frequently interpret how they impact certain markets and react fast enough before probabilities shift. The reverse of this is also true where sometimes people overreact to news and you can take the other side at often really good prices. 4. Start small if you are new There are a lot of intricacies to trading on prediction markets that you may not realize as a new user. It is a rite of passage that you will make plenty of mistakes so starting small while you learn the ropes is the best way to proceed. I’d even recommend starting with no cash in the beginning and just watching markets and seeing how their odds fluctuate in response to new developments. 5. If you’re size does not move the market odds, you are probably in the wrong market The higher the volume and deeper the liquidity, the more efficient a market will be since there is more incentive for larger players to price them correctly (ie. You can make more money if you’re right). There are now thousands of markets everyday on these platforms, many of which are illiquid. There is not much incentive for sharp market participants to want to focus on these illiquid markets. If you’re a new user with a small bankroll, I’d recommend scouring through illiquid markets to try to find edge. You would be shocked how many already resolvable markets you will find that will still have standing orders up (but make sure to also consider #2 above before buying). 6. Whenever possible, use limit orders instead of market orders This one’s pretty self-explanatory - With limit orders you’ll earn liquidity rewards (on eligible markets), get in at a better price, and won’t run the risk of dealing with high slippage in illiquid markets. One of the top complaints I hear from new users is not understanding why they are getting filled at a bad price and I have even heard some horror stories of new users market selling their already won positions at 1 cent because the order book was empty. If you’re new, spend some time to understand how order books work. 7. Talk to other people in the community! Kalshi has built a really great discord and there are also a ton of other great prediction market focused discords with knowledgeable traders that are open to sharing their thoughts and providing guidance. Overall, I think the prediction market community is extremely positive and welcoming to new users. Most OG prediction market traders just want to see more volume and liquidity in their markets so they will spend the time interacting and helping new users. I will shoutout Foster, Gaeten Dugas and as just some examples (there are many more!) of people I think are really great in the community and help new users understand these markets. In conclusion, there is so much more I could write about but these are just a few topics I wanted to cover. I absolutely love prediction markets and it has been the most exciting past month seeing how mainstream they are getting with volumes skyrocketing.show more
