#oman

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❄️Large hailstones in Izki, Oman today 25-3-2026 #Oman

OMAR ALFARSI

122,894 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

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My interview #newsroom CNN: A. Trump’s threats against #Oman reflect a deeper U.S. concern over the emerging regional order around the Strait of Hormuz. Washington fears that an Omani-Iranian arrangement could effectively legitimize a significant Iranian role in managing the Strait, while broader diplomatic pressure from Gulf staes could increase pressure on the United States to ease or remove its naval blockade. B. Trump’s approach toward Oman risks further eroding U.S. credibility among Gulf partners. For Gulf states, the question is increasingly whether Washington remains a predictable security guarantor or whether even long-standing partners and mediators can suddenly become targets of American coercion. Those doubts were already intensified by the war with Iran, and threats against Oman could reinforce the perception that U.S. commitments and relationships are increasingly transactional and unpredictable C. Economic pressure alone is unlikely to produce Iranian capitulation. Tehran appears to believe that it can absorb substantial economic pain as long as it can impose significant costs on the United States and its regional partners in return. That creates a dangerous asymmetry: Washington may view sanctions and military pressure as tools for forcing concessions, while Tehran may view escalation itself as a source of leverage. If Iranian leaders ultimately conclude that they face a choice between strategic capitulation and another round of escalation, they are more likely to escalate than surrende, particularly as control over Hormuz gives them an unusually powerful instrument for imposing economic costs beyond Iran itself. D. On Gaza, the core obstacle is that the political incentives of Netanyahu and Hamas remain fundamentally incompatible. Netanyahu has little domestic political room to accept an arrangement that could be portrayed as leaving Hamas militarily intact, while Hamas has little incentive to accept genuine and irreversible disarmament. Its preference would be to preserve enough military capability, or at least the ability to regenerate it, to remain a relevant actor in Gaza. As a result, the most consequential decisions over Gaza’s political and security architecture may ultimately be postponed until after Israel’s elections, when the Israeli government has greater political latitude to make compromises that would currently carry prohibitive domestic costs. #IranWar‌

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

15,646 просмотров • 17 дней назад