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1. After 2019 huge ga ycp-mb banners started 2. Mega vs PB ayinappudu ycp-pb banners started but ippudu thaggayi 3. PK vs AA avvagane AA-Ycp banners started 4. Ycp-ntr rare coz own fam kabatti tdp flags vuntai Adhi just anti-PK batch, come into reality !

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62,541 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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In 2025 I created an Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi Polymarket Opinion The results were actually quite surprising I will share how much I've been able to make using the bot at the end of the thread! But first, how does it even work? 1. The Strategy A lot of the viral trading bots on X for Prediction Markets are trying to trade just within Polymarket, mostly on highly volatile markets. Buying quickly / selling quickly, this works great if you’re a VC with an infinite budget for development and the fastest infrastructure positioned right next to Polymarkets servers, but doesn't work great for regular traders. I knew building a bot here is like trying to out sprint Usain Bolt wearing flip flops So instead if i wanted to make a bot it would have to be doing something I haven't seen anyone else do So after engaging 100% of my brain I remembered how I'd seen many of the same markets when browsing Kalshi that I'd previously seen on Polymarket. If the odds were different I'd actually be able to arbitrage the two platforms. After checking 20 or so pairs I found a few examples where the odds were different, proving my theory. So i started building 2. The Bot I began crafting an algorithm that collects all the Polymarket, Kalshi & Opinion markets and identifies any that are the same. In total that's over 6,000,000 markets, billions of potential combinations, from that i found around 6,000 that match. A lot of markets have the same title, but slight differences in the rules that means an arbitrage is not possible. For example ‘Will Trump meet XYZ person before ABC date’ - many of these exist between Poly Kalshi but Kalshi defines ‘meeting’ as online, or in real life, whilst Polymarket defines it strictly as in real life. To verify the matches I first used an algorithm that sees if the titles / rules are similar, then I feed every one of those potential pairs into an LLM that is prompted to approve / reject the potential match. This part sounds like it should be easy, but the LLMs were all so inconsistent. I’d pass the same market 10 times and it would reject it twice and approve it eight times. After a lot of prompt engineering I finally got it to a stage where it's at least 99% accurate. The bot then recreates locally all the orderbooks for the matched markets and looks for any pairs with YES + NO values of < $1 & calculate how much you can profitably buy of each side ( your EV ) 3. An Example ‘SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap? 900B to 1T' This market exists on both Poly & Opinion, but right now the odds are different. YES / NO 4% / 97% - Polymarket 10% / 92% - Opinion Lets say you told the bot you wanted to trade $100 You’d split it $3.85 into Polymarket YES for 104.743 Shares $96.15 into Opinion NO for 104.743 Shares You spent $100, and you got 104.7 shares of each side And because 1 YES + 1 NO = $1 ( when the markets are identical ) Your expected profit is $4.7, because: value ( 104.7 shares * $1 ) - cost ( $100 ) = profit ( 4.7 Shares / $4.7 ) Then once the odds rebalance, usually a few days to a week, you can sell both sides and use the principal + the profit to take another arbitrage $100 isn't much, but imagine if you did $1000, or $10,000 every few days. Since creating the bot it has been finding around $350,000 in arbitrages from over 5,000 matching market pairs every month. That's more than I could ever take my self Assuming an average of 4% per arb (often more), It would take over $8,750,000 deployed to capture them all simultaneously That's why I initially shared the bot with some sharp sportsbook bettors for commission on their trades, eventually making it a public version that's on AlertPilot for anyone to use. 4. The Longevity Will this work forever? No, eventually a VC will come and eat our free lunch, it will become more competitive and the spreads wont be as high as they are now (+10% at times). My mantra here is just to make the most of it whilst I can, and release consistent updates so that it remains competitive against the competition. I already have a head start in that regard. I will say over the last 3 months of using the bot myself, plus adding traders / syndicates to the platform to trade as well, the amount of Arbitrages found has only increased. In large part no doubt to the huge increase in volume on PM’s, especially Opinion where many of the more profitable arbitrages have been. 5. The Profit So how much did I make? I started with a bankroll of $1,000 as I was skeptical initially how well the bot would work, first week I was able to close two 5% arbs. I then increased my bank roll and started sharing the bot with other traders. Since then I've been averaging five figures every month from my own trades + commissions. Anywhere between 12% to 20% per month in closed arbs, personally. To anyone reading this that wants to arbitraging these markets, i've released a version of the bot on AlertPilot! And for any VCs or betting syndicate that wants to trade these markets, my DMs are open. Aspiring trading bot makers, there is money out there if you can be creative in your strategies Have lots of plans for AlertPilot + the Arbitrage bot going into 2026. Happy new year everybody!

In 2025 I created an Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi Polymarket Opinion The results were actually quite surprising I will share how much I've been able to make using the bot at the end of the thread! But first, how does it even work? 1. The Strategy A lot of the viral trading bots on X for Prediction Markets are trying to trade just within Polymarket, mostly on highly volatile markets. Buying quickly / selling quickly, this works great if you’re a VC with an infinite budget for development and the fastest infrastructure positioned right next to Polymarkets servers, but doesn't work great for regular traders. I knew building a bot here is like trying to out sprint Usain Bolt wearing flip flops So instead if i wanted to make a bot it would have to be doing something I haven't seen anyone else do So after engaging 100% of my brain I remembered how I'd seen many of the same markets when browsing Kalshi that I'd previously seen on Polymarket. If the odds were different I'd actually be able to arbitrage the two platforms. After checking 20 or so pairs I found a few examples where the odds were different, proving my theory. So i started building 2. The Bot I began crafting an algorithm that collects all the Polymarket, Kalshi & Opinion markets and identifies any that are the same. In total that's over 6,000,000 markets, billions of potential combinations, from that i found around 6,000 that match. A lot of markets have the same title, but slight differences in the rules that means an arbitrage is not possible. For example ‘Will Trump meet XYZ person before ABC date’ - many of these exist between Poly Kalshi but Kalshi defines ‘meeting’ as online, or in real life, whilst Polymarket defines it strictly as in real life. To verify the matches I first used an algorithm that sees if the titles / rules are similar, then I feed every one of those potential pairs into an LLM that is prompted to approve / reject the potential match. This part sounds like it should be easy, but the LLMs were all so inconsistent. I’d pass the same market 10 times and it would reject it twice and approve it eight times. After a lot of prompt engineering I finally got it to a stage where it's at least 99% accurate. The bot then recreates locally all the orderbooks for the matched markets and looks for any pairs with YES + NO values of < $1 & calculate how much you can profitably buy of each side ( your EV ) 3. An Example ‘SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap? 900B to 1T' This market exists on both Poly & Opinion, but right now the odds are different. YES / NO 4% / 97% - Polymarket 10% / 92% - Opinion Lets say you told the bot you wanted to trade $100 You’d split it $3.85 into Polymarket YES for 104.743 Shares $96.15 into Opinion NO for 104.743 Shares You spent $100, and you got 104.7 shares of each side And because 1 YES + 1 NO = $1 ( when the markets are identical ) Your expected profit is $4.7, because: value ( 104.7 shares * $1 ) - cost ( $100 ) = profit ( 4.7 Shares / $4.7 ) Then once the odds rebalance, usually a few days to a week, you can sell both sides and use the principal + the profit to take another arbitrage $100 isn't much, but imagine if you did $1000, or $10,000 every few days. Since creating the bot it has been finding around $350,000 in arbitrages from over 5,000 matching market pairs every month. That's more than I could ever take my self Assuming an average of 4% per arb (often more), It would take over $8,750,000 deployed to capture them all simultaneously That's why I initially shared the bot with some sharp sportsbook bettors for commission on their trades, eventually making it a public version that's on AlertPilot for anyone to use. 4. The Longevity Will this work forever? No, eventually a VC will come and eat our free lunch, it will become more competitive and the spreads wont be as high as they are now (+10% at times). My mantra here is just to make the most of it whilst I can, and release consistent updates so that it remains competitive against the competition. I already have a head start in that regard. I will say over the last 3 months of using the bot myself, plus adding traders / syndicates to the platform to trade as well, the amount of Arbitrages found has only increased. In large part no doubt to the huge increase in volume on PM’s, especially Opinion where many of the more profitable arbitrages have been. 5. The Profit So how much did I make? I started with a bankroll of $1,000 as I was skeptical initially how well the bot would work, first week I was able to close two 5% arbs. I then increased my bank roll and started sharing the bot with other traders. Since then I've been averaging five figures every month from my own trades + commissions. Anywhere between 12% to 20% per month in closed arbs, personally. To anyone reading this that wants to arbitraging these markets, i've released a version of the bot on AlertPilot! And for any VCs or betting syndicate that wants to trade these markets, my DMs are open. Aspiring trading bot makers, there is money out there if you can be creative in your strategies Have lots of plans for AlertPilot + the Arbitrage bot going into 2026. Happy new year everybody!

SecureZero is Hiring 

13,638 次观看 • 7 个月前

Today we’re launching Vybe to the world and announcing our $10M Seed round to make vibe-coding actually work inside companies. This is why, how and our vision: Over the last few decades, every fast-growing company has quietly built the same mess behind the scenes: internal ops glued together with rigid SaaS, fragile spreadsheets or custom-coded tools nobody wants to maintain. Meanwhile, eng teams are stretched thin. Internal tools never make it to the top of the backlog. Vibe-coding is changing the game but it’s mostly been good for prototypes, landing pages, and side projects disconnected to production data. Our belief is simple: in the next few years, most internal software will be vibe-coded by teams working with AI, engineers and business teams together. Vybe is built for that collaboration: 1/ Business teams own the surface area: Business teams (Ops, CX, PMs etc.) can build and iterate on apps themselves: flows, UI, fields, and logic; without waiting weeks for eng to pick up another “internal tools” ticket. 2/ Engineers own the foundation: Integrate production data (Postgres, Salesforce, Jira, and 3,000 integrations), define SQL definitions once, set up SSO auth, access control, and keep everything in Git to help when needed (from their favorite IDE!) 3/ Secure by design: Our security and permissioning layer is not vibe-coded and can’t be modified by AI. Everyone can sleep at night. 4/ Team-ready out of the box: SSO, Auth, environments, deployments, and review flows are built in. Over the last few months, we’ve been in closed waitlist mode and have hand-onboarded teams to pressure-test Vybe on real production workflows: - A YC Founder runs his entire CS operation on Vybe and saves ~2 days per week. - Another company ingested millions of rows from their warehouse to build BI-like internal views that would break typical AI builders. - One team fully replaced Metabase/Looker by plugging Redshift into Vybe and just… prompting their way to MAU, DAU, funnels… Remix apps from world-class operators To make it even easier to get started, we’re launching templates co-created with operators who’ve already solved these problems at scale: - Mathilde Collin (CEO @ Front) – how she runs 1:1s - Lenny Rachitsky (yeah, that Lenny!) - how to manage up, do perf reviews and write PRDs - Sushma Nallapeta (CTO @ 23andMe) - her 7Cs Framework for Build vs. Buy Decisions - and many more from the best Tech leaders Backed by people who’ve lived this pain We’ve raised $10M in Seed funding, led by First Round with participation from Y Combinator and an incredible group of operators and founders, including: The CEO Datadog, CEO Grammarly, CEO Reforge, CTO Intercom, Head of Product at OpenAI, Head of Product Anthropic, and 50 more incredible operators who believed in our vision! Huge thank you to our early customers, team, and investors for believing in us this early. 🙏 We’re now in GA: no more waitlist!

Today we’re launching Vybe to the world and announcing our $10M Seed round to make vibe-coding actually work inside companies. This is why, how and our vision: Over the last few decades, every fast-growing company has quietly built the same mess behind the scenes: internal ops glued together with rigid SaaS, fragile spreadsheets or custom-coded tools nobody wants to maintain. Meanwhile, eng teams are stretched thin. Internal tools never make it to the top of the backlog. Vibe-coding is changing the game but it’s mostly been good for prototypes, landing pages, and side projects disconnected to production data. Our belief is simple: in the next few years, most internal software will be vibe-coded by teams working with AI, engineers and business teams together. Vybe is built for that collaboration: 1/ Business teams own the surface area: Business teams (Ops, CX, PMs etc.) can build and iterate on apps themselves: flows, UI, fields, and logic; without waiting weeks for eng to pick up another “internal tools” ticket. 2/ Engineers own the foundation: Integrate production data (Postgres, Salesforce, Jira, and 3,000 integrations), define SQL definitions once, set up SSO auth, access control, and keep everything in Git to help when needed (from their favorite IDE!) 3/ Secure by design: Our security and permissioning layer is not vibe-coded and can’t be modified by AI. Everyone can sleep at night. 4/ Team-ready out of the box: SSO, Auth, environments, deployments, and review flows are built in. Over the last few months, we’ve been in closed waitlist mode and have hand-onboarded teams to pressure-test Vybe on real production workflows: - A YC Founder runs his entire CS operation on Vybe and saves ~2 days per week. - Another company ingested millions of rows from their warehouse to build BI-like internal views that would break typical AI builders. - One team fully replaced Metabase/Looker by plugging Redshift into Vybe and just… prompting their way to MAU, DAU, funnels… Remix apps from world-class operators To make it even easier to get started, we’re launching templates co-created with operators who’ve already solved these problems at scale: - Mathilde Collin (CEO @ Front) – how she runs 1:1s - Lenny Rachitsky (yeah, that Lenny!) - how to manage up, do perf reviews and write PRDs - Sushma Nallapeta (CTO @ 23andMe) - her 7Cs Framework for Build vs. Buy Decisions - and many more from the best Tech leaders Backed by people who’ve lived this pain We’ve raised $10M in Seed funding, led by First Round with participation from Y Combinator and an incredible group of operators and founders, including: The CEO Datadog, CEO Grammarly, CEO Reforge, CTO Intercom, Head of Product at OpenAI, Head of Product Anthropic, and 50 more incredible operators who believed in our vision! Huge thank you to our early customers, team, and investors for believing in us this early. 🙏 We’re now in GA: no more waitlist!

Quang HOANG

108,436 次观看 • 8 个月前

Hell froze over: announcing FormKit for React. Secretly framework-agnostic since inception, today we’re open sourcing the most popular Vue form library…for React. Why is this a big deal? 1. Forms are still hard. We (the creators of FormKit) thought form libraries were no longer necessary, given the trajectory of coding agents. It turns out we were wrong, and we learned this the hard way. Need repeating conditional fields nested 3 layers deep inside a dynamic component, with accessibility, validation, internationalization, and backend error placement? Turns out coding agents aren’t great at that. It’s table stakes for FormKit. 2. Single component. This matters more than you would think, but FormKit doesn’t ship lots of different components each with its own props. Instead, it has a single one: and unified props. This was done to provide a better DX to human engineers. It makes it easy to spot when a given component was part of the form’s data structure vs a presentational component. It turns out this matters even more to coding agents than humans. No matter where your coding agent is, whenever it sees “FormKit” it immediately knows “oh, that’s part of the form’s data”. 3. No plumbing. FormKit doesn’t require any manual data collection, event listening, or state tracking. It does all this for you on a heavily tested, framework agnostic, self-assembling graph. The only code your agent needs to write is declarative templates and submission handlers that respond to the state. 4. Dense colocation. FormKit’s syntax happens to be ideal for coding agents; nearly everything you need to know about a given input is *on* the input: Colocation dramatically improves the efficacy of coding agents. 5. DOM. FormKit, unlike most form frameworks in React, renders the actual DOM. This also increases colocation and best practices, meaning your coding agent is far more likely to produce consistent and high-quality output that looks and acts the way its supposed to. 6. Schema. FormKit’s own inputs are not written using Vue or React — instead, FormKit has its own render schema — think of it like an AST for the DOM — and you can modify it on the fly. It’s not very human-friendly to write, but it turns out most models are already pretty well trained on FormKit’s schema. Want your inputs to look a bit different on one form than another? No problem, your coding agent can easily make those changes *without* modifying the JSX structure at all. Oh, and any inputs you create for Vue work with React and vice versa. 7. Plugins. FormKit leans into the unstructured tree graph hard. The graph doesn’t just collect data, it also passes down configuration and plugins. Want one form to work a bit differently than another one? No problem — just add a plugin to the top of that form or group and its children will all receive that feature. You can even mass assign props and configuration this way. Of course, FormKit has been solving these exact issues for a long time, but it wasn’t until we started using it on our own projects with coding agents that we realized what a huge advantage it is. With so many people using coding agents with React, it made sense to unveil FormKit for what it has always been — a completely framework-agnostic form framework that happens to unlock your coding agents. ➡️

Hell froze over: announcing FormKit for React. Secretly framework-agnostic since inception, today we’re open sourcing the most popular Vue form library…for React. Why is this a big deal? 1. Forms are still hard. We (the creators of FormKit) thought form libraries were no longer necessary, given the trajectory of coding agents. It turns out we were wrong, and we learned this the hard way. Need repeating conditional fields nested 3 layers deep inside a dynamic component, with accessibility, validation, internationalization, and backend error placement? Turns out coding agents aren’t great at that. It’s table stakes for FormKit. 2. Single component. This matters more than you would think, but FormKit doesn’t ship lots of different components each with its own props. Instead, it has a single one: and unified props. This was done to provide a better DX to human engineers. It makes it easy to spot when a given component was part of the form’s data structure vs a presentational component. It turns out this matters even more to coding agents than humans. No matter where your coding agent is, whenever it sees “FormKit” it immediately knows “oh, that’s part of the form’s data”. 3. No plumbing. FormKit doesn’t require any manual data collection, event listening, or state tracking. It does all this for you on a heavily tested, framework agnostic, self-assembling graph. The only code your agent needs to write is declarative templates and submission handlers that respond to the state. 4. Dense colocation. FormKit’s syntax happens to be ideal for coding agents; nearly everything you need to know about a given input is on the input: Colocation dramatically improves the efficacy of coding agents. 5. DOM. FormKit, unlike most form frameworks in React, renders the actual DOM. This also increases colocation and best practices, meaning your coding agent is far more likely to produce consistent and high-quality output that looks and acts the way its supposed to. 6. Schema. FormKit’s own inputs are not written using Vue or React — instead, FormKit has its own render schema — think of it like an AST for the DOM — and you can modify it on the fly. It’s not very human-friendly to write, but it turns out most models are already pretty well trained on FormKit’s schema. Want your inputs to look a bit different on one form than another? No problem, your coding agent can easily make those changes without modifying the JSX structure at all. Oh, and any inputs you create for Vue work with React and vice versa. 7. Plugins. FormKit leans into the unstructured tree graph hard. The graph doesn’t just collect data, it also passes down configuration and plugins. Want one form to work a bit differently than another one? No problem — just add a plugin to the top of that form or group and its children will all receive that feature. You can even mass assign props and configuration this way. Of course, FormKit has been solving these exact issues for a long time, but it wasn’t until we started using it on our own projects with coding agents that we realized what a huge advantage it is. With so many people using coding agents with React, it made sense to unveil FormKit for what it has always been — a completely framework-agnostic form framework that happens to unlock your coding agents. ➡️

Justin Schroeder

11,549 次观看 • 4 个月前

Honkai Star Rail issue TLDR; no real improvements towards the gameplay/TRPG depth itself while continuing to make changes that don't matter 'in the now'. More context; As of the last few patches it's felt like HSR has made 1 step forward & 3 back (Ex. Wishful Resin availability vs impact of the item). With a turn based RPG, I expect more actions to be taken that encourage strategic gameplay, combat/gear choices, or otherwise game defining matters that give the player more satisfaction (of their wins, accomplishments, goal challenges, etc.) in the game. Great examples of this are FF Tactics, Valkyria Chronicles, Octopath Traveler, & any Shin Megami Tensei or Fire Emblem game. I don't have any definite backing behind this, just my own assumptions & experiences, but it feels like HSR has become more greedy than their usual gacha self. A game (that presents itself) based around team structure, archetypes, & decision making has shown a severe lack of these since shortly after Superbreak's introduction. The lack of STRONG 4-stars has left many of our viable "teams" lingering on a "play this or bust" situation. Of course, having at least 80% of the limited 5-stars removes this entirely, but that introduces an entirely different subject that still favors my argument in the lack of team variety we have. Ex. The counter-archetype team. There's little to no difference between THE optimal team if you use Yunli or Clara, despite the two of them playing differently w/ different build opportunities. You won't swap support units because they offer a new 'thing' to benefit Yunli/Clara. You will swap units because you don't have the premier one or you don't have the other premier one (i.e Sunday vs Sparkle selection). The enemy design has been decent, with some bosses having amazing potential, but that effort is quickly made irrelevant due to the HP inflation or lack of preventative measures the avg player can take against them (i.e not having shields, cleanse, enhanced breaking, AV control, etc.) By no means is that me alluding to every player deserves every limited thing, but it is me saying there's 0 reason the last 4-star we got was on Sept 9th, and per the drip marketing received, we aren't getting a new one any time soon. On stream, I spoke about how impactful a row system (Persona 1, Unicorn Overlord, Torna DLC for Xenoblade 2, etc.) would be to the strategy behind the game IF they prioritized combat depth instead of selling only selling limited characters. HSR has the potential to really put their foot in the combat strategy and team building of the game, but I don't understand the reason they refuse to do it when they have the means to. This brings me to the greed I believe HSR has displayed lately. There are multiple pts I want to address on this matter, but this tweet is too long & I wanna go play Metaphor so I'll try to emphasize this point a lot stronger. Keep in mind, these items are conceptually of top 3 importance in the game (value wise). * There is 0 reason the bundle of Wishful Resin should cost $35-50 worth of stellar jade bundles instead of a flat price. They are purposely inflating your purchase on an item that, in my opinion, is insanely valuable for every player. * Trading 800 relic remains or Self Modeling Resin for 1 Wishful Resin is a scam. 800 RR = 80 trash relics or 2 +15 relics. Both of which, require you to invest a LOT of resources into in order to obtain them in the first place. * 2 sub-stats should not cost 4 Wishful Resin if 1 sub-stat only cost 1 Wishful Resin. * Receiving ONE WISHFUL RESIN FOR FREE per 40ish days, is INSANE. lol Receiving TWO IF YOU PAY per 40ish days is even more ludicrous. In the event you decided to buy all the Wishful bundles per 40 days & only choose the WR as your option, that's $120 (70 + 50) for 22 WR. Adding the BP into that is now just shy of paying for a limited character. Don't even get me started on how the only available dice in the game is paid for while still having a 75% chance to screw you over in RNG, either. I understand this looks like a giga rant, & it is. It pisses me off watching a game you avidly enjoy make decisions that, I can only assume, are out of pure greed. They could do so much to spin this game into an easy top 5 position with little to similar effort in pushing out stronger characters per $300. Hence, my feeling of being burnt out & even that took me months to understand/realize.

Honkai Star Rail issue TLDR; no real improvements towards the gameplay/TRPG depth itself while continuing to make changes that don't matter 'in the now'. More context; As of the last few patches it's felt like HSR has made 1 step forward & 3 back (Ex. Wishful Resin availability vs impact of the item). With a turn based RPG, I expect more actions to be taken that encourage strategic gameplay, combat/gear choices, or otherwise game defining matters that give the player more satisfaction (of their wins, accomplishments, goal challenges, etc.) in the game. Great examples of this are FF Tactics, Valkyria Chronicles, Octopath Traveler, & any Shin Megami Tensei or Fire Emblem game. I don't have any definite backing behind this, just my own assumptions & experiences, but it feels like HSR has become more greedy than their usual gacha self. A game (that presents itself) based around team structure, archetypes, & decision making has shown a severe lack of these since shortly after Superbreak's introduction. The lack of STRONG 4-stars has left many of our viable "teams" lingering on a "play this or bust" situation. Of course, having at least 80% of the limited 5-stars removes this entirely, but that introduces an entirely different subject that still favors my argument in the lack of team variety we have. Ex. The counter-archetype team. There's little to no difference between THE optimal team if you use Yunli or Clara, despite the two of them playing differently w/ different build opportunities. You won't swap support units because they offer a new 'thing' to benefit Yunli/Clara. You will swap units because you don't have the premier one or you don't have the other premier one (i.e Sunday vs Sparkle selection). The enemy design has been decent, with some bosses having amazing potential, but that effort is quickly made irrelevant due to the HP inflation or lack of preventative measures the avg player can take against them (i.e not having shields, cleanse, enhanced breaking, AV control, etc.) By no means is that me alluding to every player deserves every limited thing, but it is me saying there's 0 reason the last 4-star we got was on Sept 9th, and per the drip marketing received, we aren't getting a new one any time soon. On stream, I spoke about how impactful a row system (Persona 1, Unicorn Overlord, Torna DLC for Xenoblade 2, etc.) would be to the strategy behind the game IF they prioritized combat depth instead of selling only selling limited characters. HSR has the potential to really put their foot in the combat strategy and team building of the game, but I don't understand the reason they refuse to do it when they have the means to. This brings me to the greed I believe HSR has displayed lately. There are multiple pts I want to address on this matter, but this tweet is too long & I wanna go play Metaphor so I'll try to emphasize this point a lot stronger. Keep in mind, these items are conceptually of top 3 importance in the game (value wise). * There is 0 reason the bundle of Wishful Resin should cost $35-50 worth of stellar jade bundles instead of a flat price. They are purposely inflating your purchase on an item that, in my opinion, is insanely valuable for every player. * Trading 800 relic remains or Self Modeling Resin for 1 Wishful Resin is a scam. 800 RR = 80 trash relics or 2 +15 relics. Both of which, require you to invest a LOT of resources into in order to obtain them in the first place. * 2 sub-stats should not cost 4 Wishful Resin if 1 sub-stat only cost 1 Wishful Resin. * Receiving ONE WISHFUL RESIN FOR FREE per 40ish days, is INSANE. lol Receiving TWO IF YOU PAY per 40ish days is even more ludicrous. In the event you decided to buy all the Wishful bundles per 40 days & only choose the WR as your option, that's $120 (70 + 50) for 22 WR. Adding the BP into that is now just shy of paying for a limited character. Don't even get me started on how the only available dice in the game is paid for while still having a 75% chance to screw you over in RNG, either. I understand this looks like a giga rant, & it is. It pisses me off watching a game you avidly enjoy make decisions that, I can only assume, are out of pure greed. They could do so much to spin this game into an easy top 5 position with little to similar effort in pushing out stronger characters per $300. Hence, my feeling of being burnt out & even that took me months to understand/realize.

Iyo

135,611 次观看 • 1 年前

Made $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 Days Using a Claude AI Bot on Polymarket. 26,738 trades. 98% win rate. Full blockchain proof. Every single trade verifiable on-chain. I've made the exact step-by-step guide to build this Claude Polymarket bot from scratch. You've been trading for 3 years. Still red. He gave Claude $313. Woke up rich. Free for 24 hours. To get this Setup guide: 1. Comment "Money" 2. Like and Retweet 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar (so i can DM you) Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click and command explained. Beginner to running bot. Now let me break down exactly how this works. Save this post. This is the most important trading breakdown you'll ever read. ↓ Let's start with the number that should make you sick. $313. That's what this wallet started with. Not $50,000. Not $10,000. Not even $1,000. $313. Less than your monthly Netflix + Uber Eats + Spotify combined. 4 months later: $2,382,780.80. That's a 7,942x return. While you spent those same 4 months staring at charts, drawing trendlines, panic selling, revenge trading, and ending the month exactly where you started. Minus the $200 you lost on that "sure thing." Same 4 months. Same market. Same opportunities. He had a bot. You had feelings. Guess who won. Save this post right now. What I'm about to explain is the exact mechanism behind every dollar of that $2.38M. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you don't miss the rest. ↓ How Polymarket actually works and why bots print money on it. Polymarket is a prediction market. Will BTC be higher in 15 minutes? Yes or No. Will the Fed raise rates? Yes or No. You buy shares between $0 and $1. If you're right, your share settles at $1. If you're wrong, it settles at $0. Simple. Now here's where it gets interesting. Polymarket updates its prices SLOWER than the real market moves. When BTC drops 0.6% on Binance, Polymarket still shows old odds for about 2.7 seconds. 2.7 seconds. In those 2.7 seconds, the bot already knows the outcome. It's not predicting. It's not guessing. It's reading information that already exists and trading before Polymarket catches up. That's not trading. That's collecting free money with a 2.7 second head start. And you're over there using a 15-indicator TradingView setup trying to "predict" where BTC goes next. The bot doesn't predict anything. It just reads faster than you. That's the entire edge. Save this post because if you understand this one concept you understand how millionaires are being made on Polymarket right now. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more breakdowns like this. ↓ Let me walk you through one single trade. A new 15-minute BTC contract opens on Polymarket. Odds are 50/50. Fair price. 10 minutes in, BTC drops 0.6% on Binance. Hard, fast move. The real probability of BTC being lower at expiry is now about 78%. Polymarket still shows 54/46. The bot sees this instantly. Binance WebSocket feed. Under 50ms latency. The edge is 24 percentage points. On a binary contract, that's basically free money. Bot calculates position size using Kelly Criterion. Executes via Polymarket's API. Done. Within 2-3 seconds, other participants update the odds. 54/46 moves toward 78/22. Bot either exits for immediate profit or holds to resolution. Either way, the trade was entered with near-certainty of a positive outcome. Now repeat this 200-500 times per day. $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 months. Not magic. Not prediction. Not luck. Industrial-scale exploitation of a market inefficiency that still exists today. And you're still placing one manual trade per day and calling yourself a "trader." This is the mechanism behind every single dollar. Bookmark this post so you can study it again. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'm breaking down each strategy separately. ↓ There are 4 strategies. Not all Claude bots do the same thing. Strategy 1: Latency Arbitrage. Win rate: 85-98%. What 0x8dxd used. Monitor Binance price feeds. When Polymarket odds lag behind reality by 3-5%, buy the correct side before the market corrects. No forecasting. No model. No sentiment analysis. Pure speed. You're not guessing. You're reading an outcome that has already happened. Strategy 2: Oracle Arbitrage. Win rate: 78-85%. Chainlink oracle price feeds occasionally diverge from Polymarket's implied prices. When they do, the settlement direction is known. Fewer opportunities. Higher certainty when they appear. Strategy 3: News-Driven Trading. Win rate: 60-75%. Claude ingests real-time news. Government filings. Central bank statements. On-chain data. Assesses probability impact before retail traders even finish reading the headline. Lower win rate because interpretation introduces uncertainty. But works on ANY market category, not just crypto. Strategy 4: Market Making. Return: 2-5% per month. Place buy and sell orders on both sides. Capture the spread. No prediction required. Most consistent. Hardest to blow up. Compounds aggressively over time. You didn't even know there were 4 strategies. You thought "trading bot" meant one thing. That's how far behind you are. 4 strategies. 4 different risk profiles. 4 ways to make money while you sleep. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the deep dive into each one. ↓ The timeline that should haunt you. December 2025: Bot launches with $313. Nobody notices. January 6, 2026: Wallet hits ~$438,000. 140x in 30 days. 6,615 predictions. 98% win rate. Finbold reports it. Crypto Twitter explodes. March 10, 2026: Head-to-head test. Claude bot: $1,000 → $14,216 in 48 hours. +1,322%. OpenClaw bot: fully liquidated. Same market. Same timeframe. Claude won because of better risk management. OpenClaw died because it overleveraged. March 16, 2026: Someone trains a swarm model on 3 years of NBA data. Result: +$1.49M on Polymarket. April 2026: 0x8dxd final verified balance: $2,382,780.80. 26,738 trades. 4 months. This all happened while you were "waiting for the right time to start." The right time was December 2025. The second best time is right now. But you'll probably wait until it's too late. That's what you always do. Every date on this timeline is a day you could have started but didn't. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you at least start today. ↓ Why Claude and not ChatGPT? This isn't opinion. It's data. March 2026 head-to-head: Claude bot: +1,322%. OpenClaw (GPT-based): liquidated. Same prompt. Same market. Same conditions. Researchers found Claude's code included: > More defensive edge cases > More conservative default parameters > Better error handling > More legible code for debugging > Proper Kelly Criterion position sizing > Hard drawdown kill switches ChatGPT's code overleveraged into a losing sequence and couldn't recover. Claude's code sized positions conservatively, stopped trading when drawdown thresholds hit, and survived to compound another day. The difference between +1,322% and liquidation wasn't the strategy. It was the risk management. And Claude writes better risk management than ChatGPT. That's not a debate. That's a $15,216 difference in 48 hours. But sure, keep using ChatGPT because "everyone uses it." Everyone's broke too. Coincidence? Stop using the popular tool. Start using the profitable one. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more Claude vs ChatGPT comparisons with real data. ↓ Why humans lose to bots. Every single time. Same strategy. Same market. Same period. Bots: ~$206,000 profit. Humans: ~$100,000 profit. 2x gap. Same strategy. Here's why: 1. Late entries. By the time you identify the lag, verify your reasoning, and click buy, the 2.7 second window is gone. The bot executes in under 100ms. You execute in 30 seconds. The opportunity doesn't exist for 30 seconds. 2. Emotional sizing. You oversize when "confident." Undersize when scared. Exact opposite of Kelly math. The bot sizes based on edge. Every time. No feelings. 3. Fatigue. You make worse decisions at hour 6 than at hour 1. The bot makes the same decision at hour 72 that it made at hour 1. 4. Drawdown psychology. After 3 losses you either panic quit or double down trying to recover. Both destroy capital. The bot has a kill switch. It stops. It doesn't feel anything. You're not competing with other humans anymore. You're competing with machines that don't sleep, don't feel, don't flinch. And you're losing. The data doesn't lie. Humans lose to bots 2x on the same strategy. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete bot setup that removes you from the equation. ↓ What can go wrong. Because I'm not going to lie to you. Most people who build this bot will NOT 7,942x their money. Some will lose their initial capital. Here's what can kill you: Edge compression. The arbitrage window was 12 seconds in 2024. It's 2.7 seconds now. It's shrinking. At some point it hits zero for retail operators. This is a time-limited opportunity. Not a permanent income stream. Rule changes. Polymarket can change contract mechanics, settlement rules, or API terms overnight. What worked yesterday can lose money tomorrow. Risk management bugs. A 98% win rate strategy with broken position sizing will blow up your account on the one losing trade. The March 2026 experiment proved this. Claude survived. OpenClaw got liquidated. Same strategy. Different risk management. That's why the 2-hour video tutorial walks through every single risk parameter. Because the strategy doesn't kill you. Bad risk management kills you. This is the section most "gurus" delete. I'm keeping it because I'd rather you make money safely than blow up and blame me. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for honest breakdowns, not hype. ↓ The step-by-step to build your own. Step 1: Set up a Polymarket wallet. Fund with USDC via Polygon network. Start with $100-$300 for testing. Step 2: Generate API credentials. CLOB API key from docs.polymarket .com. Store private key in environment variable. Never hardcode it. Never share it. Step 3: Prompt Claude to build the bot. Use Claude Code for best results. It reads your filesystem, executes code, and iterates on errors autonomously. Step 4: Paper trade for at least one week. Minimum 200 completed trades. Win rate must be above 70% before going live. This step is NOT optional. Step 5: Configure risk management. Max single position: 8% of portfolio. Daily loss limit: -20% with auto halt. Kill switch at -40% drawdown. Telegram alerts on every threshold. Step 6: Go live small. $1-5 per trade. Watch every trade for first week. Compare to paper results. Scale only on evidence. Skip steps 4 and 5 and you will lose your money. That's not a warning. That's a guarantee. This is your complete build guide. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'll be posting the exact Claude prompts for each strategy. ↓ The edge exists right now. Not next month. Not "when you're ready." Right now. The arbitrage window is 2.7 seconds. It was 12 seconds in 2024. It's shrinking every week. Every day you wait, more bots enter the space. The window gets smaller. Your potential returns get smaller. The bots already running have a compounding advantage. They're making money today that they'll use to make more money tomorrow. You're reading about it and telling yourself "I'll look into this next weekend." That's what you said last weekend. And the weekend before that. The best time to start was 6 months ago. The second best time is today. But you already know you're going to bookmark this and never open it again. Prove me wrong. ↓ Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click. Every command. Every parameter. From zero to running bot. Beginner friendly. Nothing skipped. A similar bot has already earned $2,382,780. Full blockchain proof in the article below. The video is free. The tools are free. The edge still exists. The only thing that costs money is another month of doing nothing while bots eat every opportunity you're too slow to catch. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete series covering every automated income stream using Claude. Prediction markets are just the beginning. Save this post. Bookmark it. Screenshot it. Whatever you need to do so you actually watch the video and build the bot instead of just reading about people who did. You Must Follow me Himanshu Kumar, so i can send you DM.

Made $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 Days Using a Claude AI Bot on Polymarket. 26,738 trades. 98% win rate. Full blockchain proof. Every single trade verifiable on-chain. I've made the exact step-by-step guide to build this Claude Polymarket bot from scratch. You've been trading for 3 years. Still red. He gave Claude $313. Woke up rich. Free for 24 hours. To get this Setup guide: 1. Comment "Money" 2. Like and Retweet 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar (so i can DM you) Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click and command explained. Beginner to running bot. Now let me break down exactly how this works. Save this post. This is the most important trading breakdown you'll ever read. ↓ Let's start with the number that should make you sick. $313. That's what this wallet started with. Not $50,000. Not $10,000. Not even $1,000. $313. Less than your monthly Netflix + Uber Eats + Spotify combined. 4 months later: $2,382,780.80. That's a 7,942x return. While you spent those same 4 months staring at charts, drawing trendlines, panic selling, revenge trading, and ending the month exactly where you started. Minus the $200 you lost on that "sure thing." Same 4 months. Same market. Same opportunities. He had a bot. You had feelings. Guess who won. Save this post right now. What I'm about to explain is the exact mechanism behind every dollar of that $2.38M. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you don't miss the rest. ↓ How Polymarket actually works and why bots print money on it. Polymarket is a prediction market. Will BTC be higher in 15 minutes? Yes or No. Will the Fed raise rates? Yes or No. You buy shares between $0 and $1. If you're right, your share settles at $1. If you're wrong, it settles at $0. Simple. Now here's where it gets interesting. Polymarket updates its prices SLOWER than the real market moves. When BTC drops 0.6% on Binance, Polymarket still shows old odds for about 2.7 seconds. 2.7 seconds. In those 2.7 seconds, the bot already knows the outcome. It's not predicting. It's not guessing. It's reading information that already exists and trading before Polymarket catches up. That's not trading. That's collecting free money with a 2.7 second head start. And you're over there using a 15-indicator TradingView setup trying to "predict" where BTC goes next. The bot doesn't predict anything. It just reads faster than you. That's the entire edge. Save this post because if you understand this one concept you understand how millionaires are being made on Polymarket right now. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more breakdowns like this. ↓ Let me walk you through one single trade. A new 15-minute BTC contract opens on Polymarket. Odds are 50/50. Fair price. 10 minutes in, BTC drops 0.6% on Binance. Hard, fast move. The real probability of BTC being lower at expiry is now about 78%. Polymarket still shows 54/46. The bot sees this instantly. Binance WebSocket feed. Under 50ms latency. The edge is 24 percentage points. On a binary contract, that's basically free money. Bot calculates position size using Kelly Criterion. Executes via Polymarket's API. Done. Within 2-3 seconds, other participants update the odds. 54/46 moves toward 78/22. Bot either exits for immediate profit or holds to resolution. Either way, the trade was entered with near-certainty of a positive outcome. Now repeat this 200-500 times per day. $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 months. Not magic. Not prediction. Not luck. Industrial-scale exploitation of a market inefficiency that still exists today. And you're still placing one manual trade per day and calling yourself a "trader." This is the mechanism behind every single dollar. Bookmark this post so you can study it again. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'm breaking down each strategy separately. ↓ There are 4 strategies. Not all Claude bots do the same thing. Strategy 1: Latency Arbitrage. Win rate: 85-98%. What 0x8dxd used. Monitor Binance price feeds. When Polymarket odds lag behind reality by 3-5%, buy the correct side before the market corrects. No forecasting. No model. No sentiment analysis. Pure speed. You're not guessing. You're reading an outcome that has already happened. Strategy 2: Oracle Arbitrage. Win rate: 78-85%. Chainlink oracle price feeds occasionally diverge from Polymarket's implied prices. When they do, the settlement direction is known. Fewer opportunities. Higher certainty when they appear. Strategy 3: News-Driven Trading. Win rate: 60-75%. Claude ingests real-time news. Government filings. Central bank statements. On-chain data. Assesses probability impact before retail traders even finish reading the headline. Lower win rate because interpretation introduces uncertainty. But works on ANY market category, not just crypto. Strategy 4: Market Making. Return: 2-5% per month. Place buy and sell orders on both sides. Capture the spread. No prediction required. Most consistent. Hardest to blow up. Compounds aggressively over time. You didn't even know there were 4 strategies. You thought "trading bot" meant one thing. That's how far behind you are. 4 strategies. 4 different risk profiles. 4 ways to make money while you sleep. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the deep dive into each one. ↓ The timeline that should haunt you. December 2025: Bot launches with $313. Nobody notices. January 6, 2026: Wallet hits ~$438,000. 140x in 30 days. 6,615 predictions. 98% win rate. Finbold reports it. Crypto Twitter explodes. March 10, 2026: Head-to-head test. Claude bot: $1,000 → $14,216 in 48 hours. +1,322%. OpenClaw bot: fully liquidated. Same market. Same timeframe. Claude won because of better risk management. OpenClaw died because it overleveraged. March 16, 2026: Someone trains a swarm model on 3 years of NBA data. Result: +$1.49M on Polymarket. April 2026: 0x8dxd final verified balance: $2,382,780.80. 26,738 trades. 4 months. This all happened while you were "waiting for the right time to start." The right time was December 2025. The second best time is right now. But you'll probably wait until it's too late. That's what you always do. Every date on this timeline is a day you could have started but didn't. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you at least start today. ↓ Why Claude and not ChatGPT? This isn't opinion. It's data. March 2026 head-to-head: Claude bot: +1,322%. OpenClaw (GPT-based): liquidated. Same prompt. Same market. Same conditions. Researchers found Claude's code included: > More defensive edge cases > More conservative default parameters > Better error handling > More legible code for debugging > Proper Kelly Criterion position sizing > Hard drawdown kill switches ChatGPT's code overleveraged into a losing sequence and couldn't recover. Claude's code sized positions conservatively, stopped trading when drawdown thresholds hit, and survived to compound another day. The difference between +1,322% and liquidation wasn't the strategy. It was the risk management. And Claude writes better risk management than ChatGPT. That's not a debate. That's a $15,216 difference in 48 hours. But sure, keep using ChatGPT because "everyone uses it." Everyone's broke too. Coincidence? Stop using the popular tool. Start using the profitable one. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more Claude vs ChatGPT comparisons with real data. ↓ Why humans lose to bots. Every single time. Same strategy. Same market. Same period. Bots: ~$206,000 profit. Humans: ~$100,000 profit. 2x gap. Same strategy. Here's why: 1. Late entries. By the time you identify the lag, verify your reasoning, and click buy, the 2.7 second window is gone. The bot executes in under 100ms. You execute in 30 seconds. The opportunity doesn't exist for 30 seconds. 2. Emotional sizing. You oversize when "confident." Undersize when scared. Exact opposite of Kelly math. The bot sizes based on edge. Every time. No feelings. 3. Fatigue. You make worse decisions at hour 6 than at hour 1. The bot makes the same decision at hour 72 that it made at hour 1. 4. Drawdown psychology. After 3 losses you either panic quit or double down trying to recover. Both destroy capital. The bot has a kill switch. It stops. It doesn't feel anything. You're not competing with other humans anymore. You're competing with machines that don't sleep, don't feel, don't flinch. And you're losing. The data doesn't lie. Humans lose to bots 2x on the same strategy. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete bot setup that removes you from the equation. ↓ What can go wrong. Because I'm not going to lie to you. Most people who build this bot will NOT 7,942x their money. Some will lose their initial capital. Here's what can kill you: Edge compression. The arbitrage window was 12 seconds in 2024. It's 2.7 seconds now. It's shrinking. At some point it hits zero for retail operators. This is a time-limited opportunity. Not a permanent income stream. Rule changes. Polymarket can change contract mechanics, settlement rules, or API terms overnight. What worked yesterday can lose money tomorrow. Risk management bugs. A 98% win rate strategy with broken position sizing will blow up your account on the one losing trade. The March 2026 experiment proved this. Claude survived. OpenClaw got liquidated. Same strategy. Different risk management. That's why the 2-hour video tutorial walks through every single risk parameter. Because the strategy doesn't kill you. Bad risk management kills you. This is the section most "gurus" delete. I'm keeping it because I'd rather you make money safely than blow up and blame me. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for honest breakdowns, not hype. ↓ The step-by-step to build your own. Step 1: Set up a Polymarket wallet. Fund with USDC via Polygon network. Start with $100-$300 for testing. Step 2: Generate API credentials. CLOB API key from docs.polymarket .com. Store private key in environment variable. Never hardcode it. Never share it. Step 3: Prompt Claude to build the bot. Use Claude Code for best results. It reads your filesystem, executes code, and iterates on errors autonomously. Step 4: Paper trade for at least one week. Minimum 200 completed trades. Win rate must be above 70% before going live. This step is NOT optional. Step 5: Configure risk management. Max single position: 8% of portfolio. Daily loss limit: -20% with auto halt. Kill switch at -40% drawdown. Telegram alerts on every threshold. Step 6: Go live small. $1-5 per trade. Watch every trade for first week. Compare to paper results. Scale only on evidence. Skip steps 4 and 5 and you will lose your money. That's not a warning. That's a guarantee. This is your complete build guide. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'll be posting the exact Claude prompts for each strategy. ↓ The edge exists right now. Not next month. Not "when you're ready." Right now. The arbitrage window is 2.7 seconds. It was 12 seconds in 2024. It's shrinking every week. Every day you wait, more bots enter the space. The window gets smaller. Your potential returns get smaller. The bots already running have a compounding advantage. They're making money today that they'll use to make more money tomorrow. You're reading about it and telling yourself "I'll look into this next weekend." That's what you said last weekend. And the weekend before that. The best time to start was 6 months ago. The second best time is today. But you already know you're going to bookmark this and never open it again. Prove me wrong. ↓ Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click. Every command. Every parameter. From zero to running bot. Beginner friendly. Nothing skipped. A similar bot has already earned $2,382,780. Full blockchain proof in the article below. The video is free. The tools are free. The edge still exists. The only thing that costs money is another month of doing nothing while bots eat every opportunity you're too slow to catch. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete series covering every automated income stream using Claude. Prediction markets are just the beginning. Save this post. Bookmark it. Screenshot it. Whatever you need to do so you actually watch the video and build the bot instead of just reading about people who did. You Must Follow me Himanshu Kumar, so i can send you DM.

Himanshu Kumar

53,113 次观看 • 4 个月前

AGI? One day, but not yet. The only AI that works well right now is the one behind the screen [12-17]. But passing the Turing Test [9] behind a screen is easy compared to Real AI for real robots in the real world. No current AI-driven robot could be certified as a plumber [13-17]. Hence, the Turing Test isn't a good measure of intelligence (and neither is IQ). And AGI without mastery of the physical world is no AGI. That’s why I created the TUM CogBotLab for learning robots in 2004 [5], co-founded a company for AI in the physical world in 2014 [6], and had teams at TUM, IDSIA, and now KAUST work towards baby robots [4,10-11,18]. Such soft robots don't just slavishly imitate humans and they don't work by just downloading the web like LLMs/VLMs. No. Instead, they exploit the principles of Artificial Curiosity to improve their neural World Models (two terms I used back in 1990 [1-4]). These robots work with lots of sensors, but only weak actuators, such that they cannot easily harm themselves [18] when they collect useful data by devising and running their own self-invented experiments. Remarkably, since the 1970s, many have made fun of my old goal to build a self-improving AGI smarter than myself and then retire. Recently, however, many have finally started to take this seriously, and now some of them are suddenly TOO optimistic. These people are often blissfully unaware of the remaining challenges we have to solve to achieve Real AI. My 2024 TED talk [15] summarises some of that. REFERENCES (easy to find on the web): [1] J. Schmidhuber. Making the world differentiable: On using fully recurrent self-supervised neural networks (NNs) for dynamic reinforcement learning and planning in non-stationary environments. TR FKI-126-90, TUM, Feb 1990, revised Nov 1990. This paper also introduced artificial curiosity and intrinsic motivation through generative adversarial networks where a generator NN is fighting a predictor NN in a minimax game. [2] J. S. A possibility for implementing curiosity and boredom in model-building neural controllers. In J. A. Meyer and S. W. Wilson, editors, Proc. of the International Conference on Simulation of Adaptive Behavior: From Animals to Animats, pages 222-227. MIT Press/Bradford Books, 1991. Based on [1]. [3] J.S. AI Blog (2020). 1990: Planning & Reinforcement Learning with Recurrent World Models and Artificial Curiosity. Summarising aspects of [1][2] and lots of later papers including [7][8]. [4] J.S. AI Blog (2021): Artificial Curiosity & Creativity Since 1990. Summarising aspects of [1][2] and lots of later papers including [7][8]. [5] J.S. TU Munich CogBotLab for learning robots (2004-2009) [6] NNAISENSE, founded in 2014, for AI in the physical world [7] J.S. (2015). On Learning to Think: Algorithmic Information Theory for Novel Combinations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) Controllers and Recurrent Neural World Models. arXiv 1210.0118. Sec. 5.3 describes an RL prompt engineer which learns to query its model for abstract reasoning and planning and decision making. Today this is called "chain of thought." [8] J.S. (2018). One Big Net For Everything. arXiv 1802.08864. See also patent US11853886B2 and my DeepSeek tweet: DeepSeek uses elements of the 2015 reinforcement learning prompt engineer [7] and its 2018 refinement [8] which collapses the RL machine and world model of [7] into a single net. This uses my neural net distillation procedure of 1991: a distilled chain of thought system. [9] J.S. Turing Oversold. It's not Turing's fault, though. AI Blog (2021, was #1 on Hacker News) [10] J.S. Intelligente Roboter werden vom Leben fasziniert sein. (Intelligent robots will be fascinated by life.) F.A.Z., 2015 [11] J.S. at Falling Walls: The Past, Present and Future of Artificial Intelligence. Scientific American, Observations, 2017. [12] J.S. KI ist eine Riesenchance für Deutschland. (AI is a huge chance for Germany.) F.A.Z., 2018 [13] H. Jones. J.S. Says His Life's Work Won't Lead To Dystopia. Forbes Magazine, 2023. [14] Interview with J.S. Jazzyear, Shanghai, 2024. [15] J.S. TED talk at TED AI Vienna (2024): Why 2042 will be a big year for AI. See the attached video clip. [16] J.S. Baut den KI-gesteuerten Allzweckroboter! (Build the AI-controlled all-purpose robot!) F.A.Z., 2024 [17] J.S. 1995-2025: The Decline of Germany & Japan vs US & China. Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback? AI Blog, Jan 2025, based on [16]. [18] M. Alhakami, D. R. Ashley, J. Dunham, Y. Dai, F. Faccio, E. Feron, J. Schmidhuber. Towards an Extremely Robust Baby Robot With Rich Interaction Ability for Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms. Preprint arxiv 2404.08093, 2024.

AGI? One day, but not yet. The only AI that works well right now is the one behind the screen [12-17]. But passing the Turing Test [9] behind a screen is easy compared to Real AI for real robots in the real world. No current AI-driven robot could be certified as a plumber [13-17]. Hence, the Turing Test isn't a good measure of intelligence (and neither is IQ). And AGI without mastery of the physical world is no AGI. That’s why I created the TUM CogBotLab for learning robots in 2004 [5], co-founded a company for AI in the physical world in 2014 [6], and had teams at TUM, IDSIA, and now KAUST work towards baby robots [4,10-11,18]. Such soft robots don't just slavishly imitate humans and they don't work by just downloading the web like LLMs/VLMs. No. Instead, they exploit the principles of Artificial Curiosity to improve their neural World Models (two terms I used back in 1990 [1-4]). These robots work with lots of sensors, but only weak actuators, such that they cannot easily harm themselves [18] when they collect useful data by devising and running their own self-invented experiments. Remarkably, since the 1970s, many have made fun of my old goal to build a self-improving AGI smarter than myself and then retire. Recently, however, many have finally started to take this seriously, and now some of them are suddenly TOO optimistic. These people are often blissfully unaware of the remaining challenges we have to solve to achieve Real AI. My 2024 TED talk [15] summarises some of that. REFERENCES (easy to find on the web): [1] J. Schmidhuber. Making the world differentiable: On using fully recurrent self-supervised neural networks (NNs) for dynamic reinforcement learning and planning in non-stationary environments. TR FKI-126-90, TUM, Feb 1990, revised Nov 1990. This paper also introduced artificial curiosity and intrinsic motivation through generative adversarial networks where a generator NN is fighting a predictor NN in a minimax game. [2] J. S. A possibility for implementing curiosity and boredom in model-building neural controllers. In J. A. Meyer and S. W. Wilson, editors, Proc. of the International Conference on Simulation of Adaptive Behavior: From Animals to Animats, pages 222-227. MIT Press/Bradford Books, 1991. Based on [1]. [3] J.S. AI Blog (2020). 1990: Planning & Reinforcement Learning with Recurrent World Models and Artificial Curiosity. Summarising aspects of [1][2] and lots of later papers including [7][8]. [4] J.S. AI Blog (2021): Artificial Curiosity & Creativity Since 1990. Summarising aspects of [1][2] and lots of later papers including [7][8]. [5] J.S. TU Munich CogBotLab for learning robots (2004-2009) [6] NNAISENSE, founded in 2014, for AI in the physical world [7] J.S. (2015). On Learning to Think: Algorithmic Information Theory for Novel Combinations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) Controllers and Recurrent Neural World Models. arXiv 1210.0118. Sec. 5.3 describes an RL prompt engineer which learns to query its model for abstract reasoning and planning and decision making. Today this is called "chain of thought." [8] J.S. (2018). One Big Net For Everything. arXiv 1802.08864. See also patent US11853886B2 and my DeepSeek tweet: DeepSeek uses elements of the 2015 reinforcement learning prompt engineer [7] and its 2018 refinement [8] which collapses the RL machine and world model of [7] into a single net. This uses my neural net distillation procedure of 1991: a distilled chain of thought system. [9] J.S. Turing Oversold. It's not Turing's fault, though. AI Blog (2021, was #1 on Hacker News) [10] J.S. Intelligente Roboter werden vom Leben fasziniert sein. (Intelligent robots will be fascinated by life.) F.A.Z., 2015 [11] J.S. at Falling Walls: The Past, Present and Future of Artificial Intelligence. Scientific American, Observations, 2017. [12] J.S. KI ist eine Riesenchance für Deutschland. (AI is a huge chance for Germany.) F.A.Z., 2018 [13] H. Jones. J.S. Says His Life's Work Won't Lead To Dystopia. Forbes Magazine, 2023. [14] Interview with J.S. Jazzyear, Shanghai, 2024. [15] J.S. TED talk at TED AI Vienna (2024): Why 2042 will be a big year for AI. See the attached video clip. [16] J.S. Baut den KI-gesteuerten Allzweckroboter! (Build the AI-controlled all-purpose robot!) F.A.Z., 2024 [17] J.S. 1995-2025: The Decline of Germany & Japan vs US & China. Can All-Purpose Robots Fuel a Comeback? AI Blog, Jan 2025, based on [16]. [18] M. Alhakami, D. R. Ashley, J. Dunham, Y. Dai, F. Faccio, E. Feron, J. Schmidhuber. Towards an Extremely Robust Baby Robot With Rich Interaction Ability for Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms. Preprint arxiv 2404.08093, 2024.

Jürgen Schmidhuber

72,331 次观看 • 1 年前

My fellow Kenyans, In the spirit of accountability and civic education, I bring you my analysis of the Nyaribari Chache CDF. My analysis covered 2018-2022. Current MP is Hon. Zaheer Jhanda If you do not know him, please watch the first video attached, and the other pictures. These pictures are from his social media accounts. Please note that, the focus of the review is the CDF itself and not necessarily the politician. That is to say that I don't care when someone was elected. I am looking at the performance of the CDF vs intended purpose. When I do bring up the politician, I am discussing his or her fit for the job. Before we even get to the findings, I do want to ask you for your indulgence a little bit, to discuss something that I believe is related to the findings you will see below. And that is, "intellectual capacity". Or, "competence". Please follow me here. Let us assume that you are a wealthy individual. But you were not born wealthy. You started from below scratch, and now, you own several companies with annual revenues in the billions. One has annual revenues of KSH 17 billion, and let us call it KIAMBU CORPORATION. The other has annual revenues of KSH 40 billion. We will call this one NAIROBI CORPORATION. Finally - you have a start-up - and things are really tight there. You need to make sure the start-up succeeds. You need someone to help steer the start-up through some hard times, ensuring that the company is focused on its core competency, to develop it into a success story. The start-up is young, but has KSH 200 million in revenues annually. And you cannot afford to waste money. We will call the start-up Nyaribari Chache Corporation. You need to hire Chief Executive Officers ("CEOs") for these three companies. Among the people that have expressed interest in these positions, are: @MikeSonko for CEO of Nairobi Corporation. Sakaja Arthur Johnson for Nairobi Corporation. Ferdinand Waititu, aka H.E. Waititu BabaYao for Kiambu Corporation. And Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for Nyaribari Chache. You scan their resumes and other publicly available information, and here is what you find: @MikeSonko is a self-proclaimed "reformed fraudster" and conman. He once served a prison sentence, which he did not have the discipline to complete, in the coast for fraud. Has no known legitimate educational or professional background. Nothing that says he has even the average skills required to run - which is different from just holding the title of CEO - a company with KSH 40 billion in revenue. He is very flashy, and you can tell he adores cash by just visiting his Instagram account. But you have no idea where his cash comes from, although there are rumours that he may be involved in illicit business dealings. Sakaja Arthur Johnson - appears is born politician. He has never been accused of running anything - including a kiosk. Has never really worked anywhere where he could have learned any skills. But he has sent a diploma with his name from a "TEAM UNIVERSITY" - which, given that nobody has ever heard it, you googled to find out that it is a school in Uganda. That said, you have never seen anyone graduate from that school, and have absolutely no idea about the rigor of its academic programs. In any case - he has ZERO experience outside of politics. In other words - the only thing you are certain about with regards to him, is that he possesses dimples. H.E. Waititu BabaYao is equally enigmatic. You have listened to his interviews on TV, trying to gauge his acumen and competency. He does have a degree certificate from a school in India - but not much is known about his competency, abilities, or experience to run a company with KSH 17 billion in revenue. For Nyaribari Chache, Hon. Zaheer Jhanda wants the job, bad. His resume reads as follows: Educational background: Kenya Methodist University: Currently Seeking a Bachelor or Arts degree, having started in 2020. Outside of this, he has a KCSE certificate from Cardinal Otunga High School (1997). Work experience: BIG. FAT. NOTHING. Now, you have to decide if you are going to hire these people, to run a company with KSH 40 billion in revenues, 17 billion in revenues, and the start-up with annual revenues of KSH 200 million. And to be sure - there are hundreds of applicants for these jobs, with impressive credentials and verified work experience. Are you hiring H.E. Waititu BabaYao @MikeSonko Sakaja Arthur Johnson or Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for these jobs? The scenario I just gave you above is not a figment of my imagination. It is not a functional story am working on. These four people, sought and received positions to lead Nairobi City County Kiambu County Kenya. and Nyaribari Chache MP - on those records. Nairobi City County has a budget north of KSH 40 billion. Kiambu County Kenya. has a budget of KSH 17 billion. Hon. Zaheer Jhanda ran for office without any credentials or work experience, and the good people of Nyaribari Chache elected him. His basic salary is close to 1 million a month. The point is this. When we hire these people for these jobs, we are trusting them with the ability to use their "competency" to make very important decisions for us - about how to allocate very scarce resources. And, there are millions of people, whose dreams and aspirations rise and fall based on the decisions these people make, with those resources. For example, with a KSH 17 billion budget, Kiambu County is not supposed to spend more than 35% of this budget on salaries. If you look at most counties, and look at the number of people employed by the county, it is normally less than 1% of the entire county population. When people leading our government lack the requisite competency, and make dumb decisions, we pay the price. When Kiambu County Kenya. spends 61% of the budget in violation of the law (as opposed to a maximum of 35%), as it does often, this means that the county politicians have effectively diverted over KSH 4.5 billion in that one year, from serving you, to a few people. That KSH 4.5 billion is the difference between having a well-equipped and functioning hospital, and not. A good road, or not. In other words, the competency of people we put into these offices matter, people. It does. The question then is, why are our standards different in politics? If you could not hire these people for CEO positions to play with your own money, why would you elect them to lead jurisdictions with similar level of resources and complexity? That having been said, I digress. Back to Nyaribari Chache. Executive Summary: The audit reports for Nyaribari Chache Constituency’s NGCDF covering financial years 2018-2022 reveal systemic financial mismanagement, misallocation of funds, corruption, and governance failures. The audit findings highlight missing, unaccounted, and wasted funds amounting to Kshs. 292,609,418, affecting the constituency’s service delivery and public trust. Key Findings and Financial Irregularities Missing or Potentially Stolen Funds – Kshs. 79,677,585 1. Unaccounted school bursary disbursements totaling Kshs. 35,542,356 (FY 2018-2019). 2. Overpayments for construction projects exceeding contract values by Kshs. 7,696,229 (FY 2021-2022). Without rationale or support. 3. Unsupported expenditures on security projects of Kshs. 7,000,000 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Bank balance discrepancies, including unreversed stale cheques of Kshs. 2,027,111 (FY 2019-2020). 5. Irregular/illegal procurement of school buses without open tendering, totaling Kshs. 23,349,603 (FY 2018-2019). Wasted or Inefficiently Used Funds – Kshs. 134,136,599 1. Multiple stalled or incomplete school projects, including classroom, laboratory, and dormitory constructions totaling Kshs. 12,500,000 (FY 2021-2022). 2. Unfinished security projects worth Kshs. 34,500,000, with contractors abandoning sites (FY 2021-2022). 3. Procurement mismanagement, including unsupported sports equipment purchases amounting to Kshs. 3,497,000 (FY 2020-2021). Unaccounted or Unsupported Funds – Kshs. 78,795,234 1. Unverified/unsupported allowances and monitoring expenses amounting to Kshs. 8,900,000 (FY 2020-2021). 2. Undocumented expenditure on tuition block construction totaling Kshs. 13,688,879 (FY 2021-2022). 3. Lack of asset register documentation, with total reported assets of Kshs. 30,501,772 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Unreconciled bank balances, including Kshs. 17,291,514 in unpresented cheques that cannot be accounted for (FY 2020-2021). 5. Sports funds misuse, with Kshs. 3,497,000 unaccounted for in equipment purchases (FY 2020-2021). Details and minutiae below: Financial Year 2021-2022 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Expenditure on Tuition Block Construction. Contract amount was Kshs. 5,992,650. CDF somehow claims paying Kshs. 13,688,879 - overpaying by Kshs. 7,696,229. No interim certificates, project progress reports, or bank statements provided, as is required by law. No explanation or rationale for excess payment. 2. Unsupported Security Project Expenditure. Total Allocated: Kshs. 36,400,000. One project inspected was Kiogoro Police Post (Kshs. 7,000,000). No project file, payment certificates, or proof of expenditures provided. Absolutely ZERO documentation. 3. Irregular/Illegal Procurement Practices. Operating Expenses unaccounted For: Kshs. 1,650,000 4. Poorly Managed School Projects. Funds Transferred to Primary Schools: Kshs. 41,045,982 5. Purchase of School Bus Without Documentation. Amount Paid: Kshs. 8,200,000 No procurement documents provided for Nyanchwa Girls Secondary School bus purchase. 6. Multiple Incomplete School Projects/or abandoned/poorly managed. KSH 12.5 million of investment wasted. Examples: Kerera Central Primary: Construction incomplete (Kshs. 1,200,000). Kabwori Primary: Only 1 classroom built instead of a 3-roomed block (Kshs. 700,000). Amariba Secondary: Lab incomplete (Kshs. 4,900,000). 7. Millions in assets unaccounted for. CDF says it has Total Assets of Kshs. 30,501,772, but it cannot show any documentation. Financial Year 2020-2021 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Allowances & Monitoring Expenses. Total Committee Expenses: Kshs. 8,900,000, but Kshs. 5,650,000 cannot be supported with any documentation. No receipts. 2. Inaccurate Cash Balances. Total Reported Bank Balance: Kshs. 32,612,061, but Kshs. 17,291,514 in cheques that were written have not been accounted for. 3. Incomplete School Projects. Total Funding: Kshs. 58,637,901. Examples: Boronyi Secondary: Admin block incomplete despite full funding (Kshs. 1,320,835). Kenya Medical Training College (Ibeno Campus): Unjustified and unsupported contract variation of Kshs. 2,278,847. 4. Unsupported Sports Equipment Purchases. Total Allocated: Kshs. 4,550,000, but Kshs. 3,497,000 cannot be supported through documentation. No receipts or any other evidence available. Financial Year 2019-2020 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unreversed Stale Cheques: Kshs. 2,027,111. Cannot be accounted for. 2. Multiple Stalled, and poorly undertaken Secondary School Projects. Examples: Nyataro COG Secondary: Admin Block stalled at ground floor. Nyamemiso Secondary: Laboratory had cracked walls. Financial Year 2018-2019 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Domestic Travel & Allowances. Total Spent: Kshs. 11,504,819, but Kshs. 1,875,000 cannot be supported. ZERO documentation. 2. Unverified Bursary Disbursements. Total Disbursed: Kshs. 35,831,356. A whopping : Kshs. 35,542,356 could not be confirmed by the supposed receiving institutions. 3. Improper and Illegal Procurement of School Buses. Total Spent: Kshs. 23,349,603. No Open Tender Used: Violated procurement laws. 4. Lack of Land Ownership Documents. Out of Assets Reported by CDF, with a claimed value of Kshs. 21,177,306, Kshs. 8,096,672 could not be confirmed through documentation. This land CDF says is owned, but has no ownership documents. NG-CDF Mizani254 Dr. Miguna Miguna The Kisii County Wanjiru Githiomi Kikao Bright Shitemi Hon. Zaheer Jhanda Hon Alice Ng'ang'a, CBS Senate of Kenya National Assembly KE William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Dr. Milton N. Oriku SokoAnalyst WILLIE OEBA Dr. Dancan Onyango Eric Latiff

My fellow Kenyans, In the spirit of accountability and civic education, I bring you my analysis of the Nyaribari Chache CDF. My analysis covered 2018-2022. Current MP is Hon. Zaheer Jhanda If you do not know him, please watch the first video attached, and the other pictures. These pictures are from his social media accounts. Please note that, the focus of the review is the CDF itself and not necessarily the politician. That is to say that I don't care when someone was elected. I am looking at the performance of the CDF vs intended purpose. When I do bring up the politician, I am discussing his or her fit for the job. Before we even get to the findings, I do want to ask you for your indulgence a little bit, to discuss something that I believe is related to the findings you will see below. And that is, "intellectual capacity". Or, "competence". Please follow me here. Let us assume that you are a wealthy individual. But you were not born wealthy. You started from below scratch, and now, you own several companies with annual revenues in the billions. One has annual revenues of KSH 17 billion, and let us call it KIAMBU CORPORATION. The other has annual revenues of KSH 40 billion. We will call this one NAIROBI CORPORATION. Finally - you have a start-up - and things are really tight there. You need to make sure the start-up succeeds. You need someone to help steer the start-up through some hard times, ensuring that the company is focused on its core competency, to develop it into a success story. The start-up is young, but has KSH 200 million in revenues annually. And you cannot afford to waste money. We will call the start-up Nyaribari Chache Corporation. You need to hire Chief Executive Officers ("CEOs") for these three companies. Among the people that have expressed interest in these positions, are: @MikeSonko for CEO of Nairobi Corporation. Sakaja Arthur Johnson for Nairobi Corporation. Ferdinand Waititu, aka H.E. Waititu BabaYao for Kiambu Corporation. And Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for Nyaribari Chache. You scan their resumes and other publicly available information, and here is what you find: @MikeSonko is a self-proclaimed "reformed fraudster" and conman. He once served a prison sentence, which he did not have the discipline to complete, in the coast for fraud. Has no known legitimate educational or professional background. Nothing that says he has even the average skills required to run - which is different from just holding the title of CEO - a company with KSH 40 billion in revenue. He is very flashy, and you can tell he adores cash by just visiting his Instagram account. But you have no idea where his cash comes from, although there are rumours that he may be involved in illicit business dealings. Sakaja Arthur Johnson - appears is born politician. He has never been accused of running anything - including a kiosk. Has never really worked anywhere where he could have learned any skills. But he has sent a diploma with his name from a "TEAM UNIVERSITY" - which, given that nobody has ever heard it, you googled to find out that it is a school in Uganda. That said, you have never seen anyone graduate from that school, and have absolutely no idea about the rigor of its academic programs. In any case - he has ZERO experience outside of politics. In other words - the only thing you are certain about with regards to him, is that he possesses dimples. H.E. Waititu BabaYao is equally enigmatic. You have listened to his interviews on TV, trying to gauge his acumen and competency. He does have a degree certificate from a school in India - but not much is known about his competency, abilities, or experience to run a company with KSH 17 billion in revenue. For Nyaribari Chache, Hon. Zaheer Jhanda wants the job, bad. His resume reads as follows: Educational background: Kenya Methodist University: Currently Seeking a Bachelor or Arts degree, having started in 2020. Outside of this, he has a KCSE certificate from Cardinal Otunga High School (1997). Work experience: BIG. FAT. NOTHING. Now, you have to decide if you are going to hire these people, to run a company with KSH 40 billion in revenues, 17 billion in revenues, and the start-up with annual revenues of KSH 200 million. And to be sure - there are hundreds of applicants for these jobs, with impressive credentials and verified work experience. Are you hiring H.E. Waititu BabaYao @MikeSonko Sakaja Arthur Johnson or Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for these jobs? The scenario I just gave you above is not a figment of my imagination. It is not a functional story am working on. These four people, sought and received positions to lead Nairobi City County Kiambu County Kenya. and Nyaribari Chache MP - on those records. Nairobi City County has a budget north of KSH 40 billion. Kiambu County Kenya. has a budget of KSH 17 billion. Hon. Zaheer Jhanda ran for office without any credentials or work experience, and the good people of Nyaribari Chache elected him. His basic salary is close to 1 million a month. The point is this. When we hire these people for these jobs, we are trusting them with the ability to use their "competency" to make very important decisions for us - about how to allocate very scarce resources. And, there are millions of people, whose dreams and aspirations rise and fall based on the decisions these people make, with those resources. For example, with a KSH 17 billion budget, Kiambu County is not supposed to spend more than 35% of this budget on salaries. If you look at most counties, and look at the number of people employed by the county, it is normally less than 1% of the entire county population. When people leading our government lack the requisite competency, and make dumb decisions, we pay the price. When Kiambu County Kenya. spends 61% of the budget in violation of the law (as opposed to a maximum of 35%), as it does often, this means that the county politicians have effectively diverted over KSH 4.5 billion in that one year, from serving you, to a few people. That KSH 4.5 billion is the difference between having a well-equipped and functioning hospital, and not. A good road, or not. In other words, the competency of people we put into these offices matter, people. It does. The question then is, why are our standards different in politics? If you could not hire these people for CEO positions to play with your own money, why would you elect them to lead jurisdictions with similar level of resources and complexity? That having been said, I digress. Back to Nyaribari Chache. Executive Summary: The audit reports for Nyaribari Chache Constituency’s NGCDF covering financial years 2018-2022 reveal systemic financial mismanagement, misallocation of funds, corruption, and governance failures. The audit findings highlight missing, unaccounted, and wasted funds amounting to Kshs. 292,609,418, affecting the constituency’s service delivery and public trust. Key Findings and Financial Irregularities Missing or Potentially Stolen Funds – Kshs. 79,677,585 1. Unaccounted school bursary disbursements totaling Kshs. 35,542,356 (FY 2018-2019). 2. Overpayments for construction projects exceeding contract values by Kshs. 7,696,229 (FY 2021-2022). Without rationale or support. 3. Unsupported expenditures on security projects of Kshs. 7,000,000 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Bank balance discrepancies, including unreversed stale cheques of Kshs. 2,027,111 (FY 2019-2020). 5. Irregular/illegal procurement of school buses without open tendering, totaling Kshs. 23,349,603 (FY 2018-2019). Wasted or Inefficiently Used Funds – Kshs. 134,136,599 1. Multiple stalled or incomplete school projects, including classroom, laboratory, and dormitory constructions totaling Kshs. 12,500,000 (FY 2021-2022). 2. Unfinished security projects worth Kshs. 34,500,000, with contractors abandoning sites (FY 2021-2022). 3. Procurement mismanagement, including unsupported sports equipment purchases amounting to Kshs. 3,497,000 (FY 2020-2021). Unaccounted or Unsupported Funds – Kshs. 78,795,234 1. Unverified/unsupported allowances and monitoring expenses amounting to Kshs. 8,900,000 (FY 2020-2021). 2. Undocumented expenditure on tuition block construction totaling Kshs. 13,688,879 (FY 2021-2022). 3. Lack of asset register documentation, with total reported assets of Kshs. 30,501,772 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Unreconciled bank balances, including Kshs. 17,291,514 in unpresented cheques that cannot be accounted for (FY 2020-2021). 5. Sports funds misuse, with Kshs. 3,497,000 unaccounted for in equipment purchases (FY 2020-2021). Details and minutiae below: Financial Year 2021-2022 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Expenditure on Tuition Block Construction. Contract amount was Kshs. 5,992,650. CDF somehow claims paying Kshs. 13,688,879 - overpaying by Kshs. 7,696,229. No interim certificates, project progress reports, or bank statements provided, as is required by law. No explanation or rationale for excess payment. 2. Unsupported Security Project Expenditure. Total Allocated: Kshs. 36,400,000. One project inspected was Kiogoro Police Post (Kshs. 7,000,000). No project file, payment certificates, or proof of expenditures provided. Absolutely ZERO documentation. 3. Irregular/Illegal Procurement Practices. Operating Expenses unaccounted For: Kshs. 1,650,000 4. Poorly Managed School Projects. Funds Transferred to Primary Schools: Kshs. 41,045,982 5. Purchase of School Bus Without Documentation. Amount Paid: Kshs. 8,200,000 No procurement documents provided for Nyanchwa Girls Secondary School bus purchase. 6. Multiple Incomplete School Projects/or abandoned/poorly managed. KSH 12.5 million of investment wasted. Examples: Kerera Central Primary: Construction incomplete (Kshs. 1,200,000). Kabwori Primary: Only 1 classroom built instead of a 3-roomed block (Kshs. 700,000). Amariba Secondary: Lab incomplete (Kshs. 4,900,000). 7. Millions in assets unaccounted for. CDF says it has Total Assets of Kshs. 30,501,772, but it cannot show any documentation. Financial Year 2020-2021 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Allowances & Monitoring Expenses. Total Committee Expenses: Kshs. 8,900,000, but Kshs. 5,650,000 cannot be supported with any documentation. No receipts. 2. Inaccurate Cash Balances. Total Reported Bank Balance: Kshs. 32,612,061, but Kshs. 17,291,514 in cheques that were written have not been accounted for. 3. Incomplete School Projects. Total Funding: Kshs. 58,637,901. Examples: Boronyi Secondary: Admin block incomplete despite full funding (Kshs. 1,320,835). Kenya Medical Training College (Ibeno Campus): Unjustified and unsupported contract variation of Kshs. 2,278,847. 4. Unsupported Sports Equipment Purchases. Total Allocated: Kshs. 4,550,000, but Kshs. 3,497,000 cannot be supported through documentation. No receipts or any other evidence available. Financial Year 2019-2020 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unreversed Stale Cheques: Kshs. 2,027,111. Cannot be accounted for. 2. Multiple Stalled, and poorly undertaken Secondary School Projects. Examples: Nyataro COG Secondary: Admin Block stalled at ground floor. Nyamemiso Secondary: Laboratory had cracked walls. Financial Year 2018-2019 Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Domestic Travel & Allowances. Total Spent: Kshs. 11,504,819, but Kshs. 1,875,000 cannot be supported. ZERO documentation. 2. Unverified Bursary Disbursements. Total Disbursed: Kshs. 35,831,356. A whopping : Kshs. 35,542,356 could not be confirmed by the supposed receiving institutions. 3. Improper and Illegal Procurement of School Buses. Total Spent: Kshs. 23,349,603. No Open Tender Used: Violated procurement laws. 4. Lack of Land Ownership Documents. Out of Assets Reported by CDF, with a claimed value of Kshs. 21,177,306, Kshs. 8,096,672 could not be confirmed through documentation. This land CDF says is owned, but has no ownership documents. NG-CDF Mizani254 Dr. Miguna Miguna The Kisii County Wanjiru Githiomi Kikao Bright Shitemi Hon. Zaheer Jhanda Hon Alice Ng'ang'a, CBS Senate of Kenya National Assembly KE William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Dr. Milton N. Oriku SokoAnalyst WILLIE OEBA Dr. Dancan Onyango Eric Latiff

Bonnie Mwangi, CPA, LLM, MBA

17,694 次观看 • 1 年前

Ten Takeaways From 10/21/25 ONE) NBA on NBC Hello, friends. Welcome to the 2025-26 NBA season. It’s been a minute, hasn’t it? A whole lot has changed since we last spoke. We were reintroduced to the NBA on NBC. Can’t believe it’s been almost 25 years, but here we are again. They absolutely crushed it after having some early audio difficulties. I get how cliché it is, but I seriously got chills once “Roundball Rock” started playing. Thought Carmelo Anthony, Vince Carter, and Tracy McGrady had contagious energy in the pre-game coverage. The graphics are clean and straightforward. Really like the team fouls tracking in the score bug—just a very pleasant experience. Looking forward to the “Prime” experience. God, can’t believe it costs $650 to watch basketball now. We need to talk about the MJ segment, though. If you’ve been living under a rock, NBC shocked the world and somehow convinced Michael Jordan to sign on as a “special contributor”. “Insights to Excellence” is sadly everything I thought it would be… nothing. He wasn’t in the studio or anything. Looked like some pre-recorded interview with Mike Tirico from who knows when at his house, talking about why he’s come out of hiding. The thing lasted about three and a half minutes. “To pay it forward. I had the obligation to basketball.” - MJ on the decision to join NBC Okay Mike. Hoping for some actual insight in future recordings. TWO) Champs Are Here OKC received their rings and raised their banner before the game. Vibes were immaculate. Dillon Jones was even in attendance. Good thing the Wizards waived him just in time for him to make his flight. Rockets weren’t having it, though. Ime Udoka said that they didn’t watch the ceremony and were instead focused on trying to ruin their night. Kevin Durant came out for warmups to loud boos, and so he booed them back. Everyone laughed. Meanwhile, Steven Adams still gets loud cheers because, well, who doesn’t love Steven Adams? It was a rough go-around for all Thunder not named Chet Holmgren (28 points, 11-17 FG) to start, especially SGA. He had just five points at the half on 40.0% shooting (2-5 FG), but you can only contain the league and Finals MVP for so long. He scored 24 of his 35 points in the 4th quarter and overtimes. What’s up with the four missed free throws (10-14 FT)? "I'm glad the guys enjoyed the ceremony. That's a great, great life event they had." - Mark Daigneault "It was surreal. I don't know how to describe it besides that. Seeing the banner raised was cool too... I'll remember it for the rest of my life." - SGA on the pregame ceremony THREE) Thunder Starters One of the more critical questions going into Opening Night was, “Who’s the 5th Thunder starter?” as we wait for JDub’s wrist to get right. SGA, Dort, Chet, and IHart felt obvious. Between Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace, I leaned Cason mainly because of the bigger picture. Didn’t make sense to start Alex after managing him all last year, but then he started in every preseason game he played. Had to give that some sort of credit (and we did). Well, they ended up doing what they did a lot last year: change it up midway. Wallace started, and then Caruso started the second half… for Hartenstein. Here we go again. Cason’s playmaking looks improved. Daigneault went 11 deep (!!!) in the first quarter. Rookie, Brooks Barnhizer was the fourth sub off the bench, played about two minutes, and was never seen again. Part of that reason is Ajay Mitchell, who checked in after him (for Shai). There’s been some buzz, going back to his standout Summer League (19.8 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 spg). He scored 12 of his 16 points in the second quarter. “Not surprised. He was playing like this before he got hurt last year.” - Mark Daigneault on Ajay Mitchell FOUR) Jumbo Lineup It’s not much of a surprise to see Udoka start with the Steven Adams/Alperen Sengun pairing after how dominant they looked at the end of last season (+29.9 net rating, 162 minutes)—especially given the matchup, with Holmgren and Hartenstein on the other side. The real shocker is how much they leaned into it. Alpi and Adams shared the court for over 30 minutes (+8). LIKE WTF?!!! This was Adams' first time touching 37 minutes since November 9, 2022. They did just sign him to a three-year extension. You’d think they might wanna be careful with their investment. The average height of this Rockets' starting lineup is 6'10 (Thompson, Durant, Smith, Sengun, Adams), LMAO FIVE) Alpi Dominance Continues Maybe what Sengun was doing at EuroBasket 2025 (21.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 6.6 apg, 1.0 spg, and 1.1 bpg) translates over? Not gonna lie, I certainly had my doubts, but no… he’s looking just as dominant (I know, one game). Alperen Sengun vs Thunder: 39 PTS 11 REB 7 AST 2 STL 5-8 3P (career-high) 10-11 FT 27.7% USG Yeah, I see it too. Second time in his career, he’s attempted eight threes. Dude averaged 1.2 attempts per game last year. The hitch in his shot appears to be gone, so hey, this could be real (doubt it). All I know is that if it is, it’ll do wonders for his ceiling on sites that reward threes (DK). Also, going 10 of 11 from the line is something worth paying attention to. He was a 69.2% free-throw shooter last season. On the flip side, Amen Thompson (18 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast) had seven attempts from behind the arc and missed them all. Sucks, but his shot still looks flat. There’s no lift. While we’re here on Thompson, he had to leave the game late because of cramps. SIX) The Reed Conundrum I’ll give Reed Sheppard (9 pts, 4 ast, 37.9% TS, 28 min) this; he’s a confident motherfucker, and I love that about him (in a cute way). It’s hilarious how many times he looked off KD in this game. He’s gonna have stretches where he’s feeling it and looks automatic, but is it really gonna be worth it if his defense looks this dreadful? He can’t stay in front of anyone. The Thunder hunted and won that matchup with ease all night. Amen getting cramped up in OT1 really salvaged his minutes, cause I didn’t think he was gonna see the court again. Again, I know it’s only one game, but a couple more performances like this and things could get ugly. SEVEN) KD Gets Away With One Or should that say gets away with none? Kevin Durant (23 points, 9 rebounds) made his Rockets debut, and there’re gonna be two things you take away from it. Why’d you trade for him again? He was pretty much non-existent when they needed him most down the stretch, with a 12.5 USG% in both OT’s. There shouldn’t have been a second overtime. KD was clearly seen calling for a timeout after a rebound with about a second left on the clock. The problem is, they didn’t have any–He Webber’d it. He should have been T’d up, giving the Thunder a free throw to potentially end the game. Zarba and his buddies even got together to talk it over once the buzzer sounded, but did nothing. Strange, but luckily, it didn’t end up mattering much since OKC won in the second overtime. “Kevin definitely called timeout 3 times… They just missed it.” - SGA The Thunder beat the Rockets 125-124. EIGHT) Kuminga Starts Gallagher and I both felt pretty confident (sounds so stupid saying that with Kerr) that had Mosey Moody been available for this one, he would have been named the fifth starter, but his calf’s still bothering him. Steve Kerr decided to start Jonathan Kuminga (17 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 33 minutes) instead, rewarding him for a strong preseason. There might be some more rewards coming because, whew, this is exactly what they’ve been wanting to see from him for the last couple of years, especially the boards. You wouldn’t know it from looking at Luka’s box score, but JK did about as well as you could defending him; he made his threes (4-6 3PT) and consistently found the open man. I’m gonna go ahead and guess that he starts again against Denver on Thursday Let the showcasing begin. “When you ask for opportunity, you must deliver. He’s been very vocal about his opportunity and he delivered.” - Draymond Green on Jonathan Kuminga “I just wanna help JK be great… We’ve been kickin' it. Hanging out. Watching film and just working on our game together. I know how great he wants to be and how great he can be.” - Jimmy Butler on mentoring Jonathan Kuminga NINE) Jimmy Being Jimmy One of the funnier moments of the night came post-game, when Jimmy Butler talked about a bet he made with Draymond Green. The wager is that he’ll have a better free-throw percentage than Steph Curry this season. Deadass, hahaha. He admitted that it’s probably a bad bet but I still love that he does this type of shit. Two years ago, he said he was playfully aiming to shoot 50.0% from three. He obviously didn’t hit that mark, but he did shoot a career-best 41.4% that season. If you’re wondering how the bet is looking to start after Game 1: Jimmy Butler: 16-16 FT (100.0%) Steph Curry: 8-8 FT (100.0%) Will keep you updated as the season goes. Jesus, 16 free throw attempts. “No chance.” - Steph Curry when asked if Jimmy Butler has any shot at winning the bet Before we’re done with GS, a shoutout to Will Richard (5 points, 14 minutes). We tease Kerr all the time about playing these randos, but this kid looks like he can actually play. TEN) All Luka and Austin The Lakers are gonna struggle hard while LeBron’s out. They just don’t have any other guys on the team that can create. Luka Doncic (43 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 34.7% USG) and Austin Reaves (26 points, 9 assists, 30.1% USG) scored or assisted on 97 of the Lakers' 109 points. So wild. Marcus Smart (9 points) was the first sub off the bench. As for DeAndre Ayton’s debut (10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 turnovers), let’s just say it didn’t take long for the Lakers’ fan base to turn on him. Poor guy looked lost out there. "We just started. This is probably the second game we've played together." - Rui Hachimura on what the difference was for the Lakers "The trend I see is that we continue to be a terrible third-quarter team." - JJ Redick The Warriors beat the Lakers 119-109.

Ten Takeaways From 10/21/25 ONE) NBA on NBC Hello, friends. Welcome to the 2025-26 NBA season. It’s been a minute, hasn’t it? A whole lot has changed since we last spoke. We were reintroduced to the NBA on NBC. Can’t believe it’s been almost 25 years, but here we are again. They absolutely crushed it after having some early audio difficulties. I get how cliché it is, but I seriously got chills once “Roundball Rock” started playing. Thought Carmelo Anthony, Vince Carter, and Tracy McGrady had contagious energy in the pre-game coverage. The graphics are clean and straightforward. Really like the team fouls tracking in the score bug—just a very pleasant experience. Looking forward to the “Prime” experience. God, can’t believe it costs $650 to watch basketball now. We need to talk about the MJ segment, though. If you’ve been living under a rock, NBC shocked the world and somehow convinced Michael Jordan to sign on as a “special contributor”. “Insights to Excellence” is sadly everything I thought it would be… nothing. He wasn’t in the studio or anything. Looked like some pre-recorded interview with Mike Tirico from who knows when at his house, talking about why he’s come out of hiding. The thing lasted about three and a half minutes. “To pay it forward. I had the obligation to basketball.” - MJ on the decision to join NBC Okay Mike. Hoping for some actual insight in future recordings. TWO) Champs Are Here OKC received their rings and raised their banner before the game. Vibes were immaculate. Dillon Jones was even in attendance. Good thing the Wizards waived him just in time for him to make his flight. Rockets weren’t having it, though. Ime Udoka said that they didn’t watch the ceremony and were instead focused on trying to ruin their night. Kevin Durant came out for warmups to loud boos, and so he booed them back. Everyone laughed. Meanwhile, Steven Adams still gets loud cheers because, well, who doesn’t love Steven Adams? It was a rough go-around for all Thunder not named Chet Holmgren (28 points, 11-17 FG) to start, especially SGA. He had just five points at the half on 40.0% shooting (2-5 FG), but you can only contain the league and Finals MVP for so long. He scored 24 of his 35 points in the 4th quarter and overtimes. What’s up with the four missed free throws (10-14 FT)? "I'm glad the guys enjoyed the ceremony. That's a great, great life event they had." - Mark Daigneault "It was surreal. I don't know how to describe it besides that. Seeing the banner raised was cool too... I'll remember it for the rest of my life." - SGA on the pregame ceremony THREE) Thunder Starters One of the more critical questions going into Opening Night was, “Who’s the 5th Thunder starter?” as we wait for JDub’s wrist to get right. SGA, Dort, Chet, and IHart felt obvious. Between Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace, I leaned Cason mainly because of the bigger picture. Didn’t make sense to start Alex after managing him all last year, but then he started in every preseason game he played. Had to give that some sort of credit (and we did). Well, they ended up doing what they did a lot last year: change it up midway. Wallace started, and then Caruso started the second half… for Hartenstein. Here we go again. Cason’s playmaking looks improved. Daigneault went 11 deep (!!!) in the first quarter. Rookie, Brooks Barnhizer was the fourth sub off the bench, played about two minutes, and was never seen again. Part of that reason is Ajay Mitchell, who checked in after him (for Shai). There’s been some buzz, going back to his standout Summer League (19.8 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 spg). He scored 12 of his 16 points in the second quarter. “Not surprised. He was playing like this before he got hurt last year.” - Mark Daigneault on Ajay Mitchell FOUR) Jumbo Lineup It’s not much of a surprise to see Udoka start with the Steven Adams/Alperen Sengun pairing after how dominant they looked at the end of last season (+29.9 net rating, 162 minutes)—especially given the matchup, with Holmgren and Hartenstein on the other side. The real shocker is how much they leaned into it. Alpi and Adams shared the court for over 30 minutes (+8). LIKE WTF?!!! This was Adams' first time touching 37 minutes since November 9, 2022. They did just sign him to a three-year extension. You’d think they might wanna be careful with their investment. The average height of this Rockets' starting lineup is 6'10 (Thompson, Durant, Smith, Sengun, Adams), LMAO FIVE) Alpi Dominance Continues Maybe what Sengun was doing at EuroBasket 2025 (21.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 6.6 apg, 1.0 spg, and 1.1 bpg) translates over? Not gonna lie, I certainly had my doubts, but no… he’s looking just as dominant (I know, one game). Alperen Sengun vs Thunder: 39 PTS 11 REB 7 AST 2 STL 5-8 3P (career-high) 10-11 FT 27.7% USG Yeah, I see it too. Second time in his career, he’s attempted eight threes. Dude averaged 1.2 attempts per game last year. The hitch in his shot appears to be gone, so hey, this could be real (doubt it). All I know is that if it is, it’ll do wonders for his ceiling on sites that reward threes (DK). Also, going 10 of 11 from the line is something worth paying attention to. He was a 69.2% free-throw shooter last season. On the flip side, Amen Thompson (18 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast) had seven attempts from behind the arc and missed them all. Sucks, but his shot still looks flat. There’s no lift. While we’re here on Thompson, he had to leave the game late because of cramps. SIX) The Reed Conundrum I’ll give Reed Sheppard (9 pts, 4 ast, 37.9% TS, 28 min) this; he’s a confident motherfucker, and I love that about him (in a cute way). It’s hilarious how many times he looked off KD in this game. He’s gonna have stretches where he’s feeling it and looks automatic, but is it really gonna be worth it if his defense looks this dreadful? He can’t stay in front of anyone. The Thunder hunted and won that matchup with ease all night. Amen getting cramped up in OT1 really salvaged his minutes, cause I didn’t think he was gonna see the court again. Again, I know it’s only one game, but a couple more performances like this and things could get ugly. SEVEN) KD Gets Away With One Or should that say gets away with none? Kevin Durant (23 points, 9 rebounds) made his Rockets debut, and there’re gonna be two things you take away from it. Why’d you trade for him again? He was pretty much non-existent when they needed him most down the stretch, with a 12.5 USG% in both OT’s. There shouldn’t have been a second overtime. KD was clearly seen calling for a timeout after a rebound with about a second left on the clock. The problem is, they didn’t have any–He Webber’d it. He should have been T’d up, giving the Thunder a free throw to potentially end the game. Zarba and his buddies even got together to talk it over once the buzzer sounded, but did nothing. Strange, but luckily, it didn’t end up mattering much since OKC won in the second overtime. “Kevin definitely called timeout 3 times… They just missed it.” - SGA The Thunder beat the Rockets 125-124. EIGHT) Kuminga Starts Gallagher and I both felt pretty confident (sounds so stupid saying that with Kerr) that had Mosey Moody been available for this one, he would have been named the fifth starter, but his calf’s still bothering him. Steve Kerr decided to start Jonathan Kuminga (17 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 33 minutes) instead, rewarding him for a strong preseason. There might be some more rewards coming because, whew, this is exactly what they’ve been wanting to see from him for the last couple of years, especially the boards. You wouldn’t know it from looking at Luka’s box score, but JK did about as well as you could defending him; he made his threes (4-6 3PT) and consistently found the open man. I’m gonna go ahead and guess that he starts again against Denver on Thursday Let the showcasing begin. “When you ask for opportunity, you must deliver. He’s been very vocal about his opportunity and he delivered.” - Draymond Green on Jonathan Kuminga “I just wanna help JK be great… We’ve been kickin' it. Hanging out. Watching film and just working on our game together. I know how great he wants to be and how great he can be.” - Jimmy Butler on mentoring Jonathan Kuminga NINE) Jimmy Being Jimmy One of the funnier moments of the night came post-game, when Jimmy Butler talked about a bet he made with Draymond Green. The wager is that he’ll have a better free-throw percentage than Steph Curry this season. Deadass, hahaha. He admitted that it’s probably a bad bet but I still love that he does this type of shit. Two years ago, he said he was playfully aiming to shoot 50.0% from three. He obviously didn’t hit that mark, but he did shoot a career-best 41.4% that season. If you’re wondering how the bet is looking to start after Game 1: Jimmy Butler: 16-16 FT (100.0%) Steph Curry: 8-8 FT (100.0%) Will keep you updated as the season goes. Jesus, 16 free throw attempts. “No chance.” - Steph Curry when asked if Jimmy Butler has any shot at winning the bet Before we’re done with GS, a shoutout to Will Richard (5 points, 14 minutes). We tease Kerr all the time about playing these randos, but this kid looks like he can actually play. TEN) All Luka and Austin The Lakers are gonna struggle hard while LeBron’s out. They just don’t have any other guys on the team that can create. Luka Doncic (43 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 34.7% USG) and Austin Reaves (26 points, 9 assists, 30.1% USG) scored or assisted on 97 of the Lakers' 109 points. So wild. Marcus Smart (9 points) was the first sub off the bench. As for DeAndre Ayton’s debut (10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 turnovers), let’s just say it didn’t take long for the Lakers’ fan base to turn on him. Poor guy looked lost out there. "We just started. This is probably the second game we've played together." - Rui Hachimura on what the difference was for the Lakers "The trend I see is that we continue to be a terrible third-quarter team." - JJ Redick The Warriors beat the Lakers 119-109.

Establish The Run NBA

13,499 次观看 • 9 个月前

10 WARNING SIGNS OF A SECTARIAN POWER GRAB 1. Ties to Organised Crime – The politicians leading these sectarian movements often come from families with deep roots in criminal enterprises. In Oldham, figures like Kamran Ghafoor and Abdul Wahid have immediate relatives with serious convictions. At one point, Ghafoor’s brother was even on Greater Manchester Police’s most wanted list. When organised crime and politics mix, corruption follows. 2. History of Racial & Religious Prejudice – Many of these politicians have a documented history of racism and antisemitism. Some were expelled or suspended from mainstream parties for their bigotry but later regrouped under new banners. These aren’t isolated incidents - this is a pattern of intolerance that gets swept under the rug when it suits them. 3. Failed Labour Politicians – Time and again, these individuals started their careers in The Labour Party, attempting to push their sectarian agenda from within. When they failed, they left only to resurface in new alliances. In Oldham, this includes former Labour politicians like Shoab Akhtar, who was Jim McMahon’s Deputy Leader. Their loyalty isn’t to the party - it’s to their own group. 4. Religious Exclusivity – Despite branding themselves as “community” politicians, these groups never field non-Muslim candidates. In Oldham, the so-called Oldham Group is entirely Muslim, despite representing a diverse town. Their goal isn’t representation - it’s dominance. 5. Mosques and community centres as Political Bases – Instead of engaging with the broader community, these politicians use religious/ethnic exclusive institutions as campaign bases. Imams endorse candidates from the pulpit, and mosque networks become vote-mobilisation machines. Worshippers are pressured into voting along religious lines, turning democratic elections into sectarian power struggles. 6. Intimidation & Voter Fraud – Postal vote harvesting, community coercion, and even threats against opposition candidates are all tactics in their playbook. Reports of widespread voter fraud in areas with strong sectarian networks are routinely ignored by authorities, allowing these groups to tighten their grip. 7. Parallel Community Structures – Instead of working through official democratic channels, power is concentrated in private meetings with so-called community elders. Decisions are made behind closed doors, outside of public scrutiny, and often with little regard for the rule of law. 8. Patronage Networks – Public funds, council contracts, and local government jobs are handed out based on religious and ethnic loyalty rather than merit. This creates an economic power structure where businesses, charities, and even individuals feel pressured to show loyalty or risk being locked out of opportunities. In Oldham, this is playing out in real time. 9. Undermining Law Enforcement – Police are reluctant to act against members of these groups due to political pressure. Whether it’s grooming gangs, drugs, or voter fraud, law enforcement looks the other way rather than risk accusations of racism or Islamophobia. As a result, criminals within these networks operate with near impunity. 10. Opposition to Integration – These groups push for separate schools, parallel legal systems (Sharia councils), and self-segregation. Anyone who questions their agenda is branded racist, far right, or the new term Islamophobic to silence debate. This isn’t about community cohesion - it’s about dividing society and creating a system where only their group holds power. This isn’t representation. This is infiltration. The fightback starts with awareness. Through my work, I help ordinary people - across all communities - recognise these warning signs and push back before it’s too late. When people organise, speak out, and refuse to be intimidated, we can stop these groups from tightening their grip. That’s why next month, I’ll be launching a series of virtual Masterclasses to expose these tactics and arm you with the knowledge to fight back effectively. Like all my work, these masterclasses will be 100% free to access. All I ask is that you sign up to my website, where everything is hosted. If you can afford to do so, taking out a paid subscription for just 75p a week (or £30 for the year) helps keep this work going. 🔗 Sign up here: If you’d prefer to make a one-off contribution - or already subscribe and want to chip in a little extra - you can do so here: ☕ Buy Me a Coffee: 💳 PayPal: Every share, sign-up, and donation strengthens the fight back. Please stand with me before it is too late for all of us. Raja 🙏

10 WARNING SIGNS OF A SECTARIAN POWER GRAB 1. Ties to Organised Crime – The politicians leading these sectarian movements often come from families with deep roots in criminal enterprises. In Oldham, figures like Kamran Ghafoor and Abdul Wahid have immediate relatives with serious convictions. At one point, Ghafoor’s brother was even on Greater Manchester Police’s most wanted list. When organised crime and politics mix, corruption follows. 2. History of Racial & Religious Prejudice – Many of these politicians have a documented history of racism and antisemitism. Some were expelled or suspended from mainstream parties for their bigotry but later regrouped under new banners. These aren’t isolated incidents - this is a pattern of intolerance that gets swept under the rug when it suits them. 3. Failed Labour Politicians – Time and again, these individuals started their careers in The Labour Party, attempting to push their sectarian agenda from within. When they failed, they left only to resurface in new alliances. In Oldham, this includes former Labour politicians like Shoab Akhtar, who was Jim McMahon’s Deputy Leader. Their loyalty isn’t to the party - it’s to their own group. 4. Religious Exclusivity – Despite branding themselves as “community” politicians, these groups never field non-Muslim candidates. In Oldham, the so-called Oldham Group is entirely Muslim, despite representing a diverse town. Their goal isn’t representation - it’s dominance. 5. Mosques and community centres as Political Bases – Instead of engaging with the broader community, these politicians use religious/ethnic exclusive institutions as campaign bases. Imams endorse candidates from the pulpit, and mosque networks become vote-mobilisation machines. Worshippers are pressured into voting along religious lines, turning democratic elections into sectarian power struggles. 6. Intimidation & Voter Fraud – Postal vote harvesting, community coercion, and even threats against opposition candidates are all tactics in their playbook. Reports of widespread voter fraud in areas with strong sectarian networks are routinely ignored by authorities, allowing these groups to tighten their grip. 7. Parallel Community Structures – Instead of working through official democratic channels, power is concentrated in private meetings with so-called community elders. Decisions are made behind closed doors, outside of public scrutiny, and often with little regard for the rule of law. 8. Patronage Networks – Public funds, council contracts, and local government jobs are handed out based on religious and ethnic loyalty rather than merit. This creates an economic power structure where businesses, charities, and even individuals feel pressured to show loyalty or risk being locked out of opportunities. In Oldham, this is playing out in real time. 9. Undermining Law Enforcement – Police are reluctant to act against members of these groups due to political pressure. Whether it’s grooming gangs, drugs, or voter fraud, law enforcement looks the other way rather than risk accusations of racism or Islamophobia. As a result, criminals within these networks operate with near impunity. 10. Opposition to Integration – These groups push for separate schools, parallel legal systems (Sharia councils), and self-segregation. Anyone who questions their agenda is branded racist, far right, or the new term Islamophobic to silence debate. This isn’t about community cohesion - it’s about dividing society and creating a system where only their group holds power. This isn’t representation. This is infiltration. The fightback starts with awareness. Through my work, I help ordinary people - across all communities - recognise these warning signs and push back before it’s too late. When people organise, speak out, and refuse to be intimidated, we can stop these groups from tightening their grip. That’s why next month, I’ll be launching a series of virtual Masterclasses to expose these tactics and arm you with the knowledge to fight back effectively. Like all my work, these masterclasses will be 100% free to access. All I ask is that you sign up to my website, where everything is hosted. If you can afford to do so, taking out a paid subscription for just 75p a week (or £30 for the year) helps keep this work going. 🔗 Sign up here: If you’d prefer to make a one-off contribution - or already subscribe and want to chip in a little extra - you can do so here: ☕ Buy Me a Coffee: 💳 PayPal: Every share, sign-up, and donation strengthens the fight back. Please stand with me before it is too late for all of us. Raja 🙏

Raja Miah

78,949 次观看 • 1 年前

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

YeahDave

208,349 次观看 • 7 个月前

If you're a Christian man, it is obvious to see that the world is controlled by Satan. Everywhere you look, we see evidence of this—from entertainment to politics to social media. It is clear that the enemy's agenda is at play, and it's an agenda designed to sabotage the men who have influence in the kingdom of God. And if you’re an entrepreneur who’s been struggling with your weight… You are being affected by this satanic agenda. Why Your Health Is Under Spiritual Attack: My name is Gabe Pluguez, and since 2019, alongside my business partner Joey Yochheim | Default Kings , we’ve been helping men break free from unhealthy patterns—for good. And we don’t just help men “get in shape.” We teach them a faith-based approach to changing their unhealthy habits so that they actually keep the weight off permanently. Like Jim— shown in the video, a 70-year-old C-suite executive who lost 53 lbs in 5 months, kept it off through the holidays, and has sustained it since after working together. Like Alex— shown in the video, a crypto entrepreneur and a dad of one who’s lost more than 40 lbs, has gotten abs, competes in Jiu-Jitsu, and has kept it off for over 2 years since after working together. Like Gavin— shown in the video, a 50-year-old father of six who was busy running multiple businesses but still lost 32 lbs in just 12 weeks. Or like Vinnie— shown in the video, an entrepreneur who’s lost 50 lbs and has kept it off for over 2 years since after working together. So here’s the thing. You already know the truth. You know that you shouldn’t be eating garbage. You know that you should be exercising consistently. You know that God made you in His image and that you’re designed to be strong and actually commanded to honor the body He gave you to carry out His mission for your life. Yet… that's not the reality you're experiencing. Why You Keep Failing to Fix This (Romans 7:15) You're experiencing exactly what Paul talks about in Romans 7:15: “I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do, I do not do, but what I hate, I do.” These are your unhealthy default actions. And if you’re like most Christian entrepreneurs, you’re probably sacrificing your health at the altar of your business. You tell yourself: • “I’ll fix it later.” • “Business and family obligations come before me.” But here’s something that might make you uneasy… That is the exact lie that the enemy wants you to believe. The Lie That’s Keeping You Weak, Tired, and Ineffective: Satan wants you to believe the lie that you are incapable of honoring your body while stewarding everything else. He wants you: ❌ Exhausted ❌ Weakened ❌ A slave to gluttony and sloth ❌ To set a poor example to the people you’re called to lead And additionally... Satan wants you dead... Early... Because if your body is weak, you’re easier to tempt. If you’re out of control, you have less influence over the people you’re supposed to lead. And if you die early—then you’re not even here. And maybe you’ve known this for a while. You’ve tried keto, intermittent fasting, Weight Watchers, Personal Trainers, or even Ozempic… But here’s the part you haven’t heard before. You’ve Been Lied To. You’ve been trying to use a temporary Band-Aid on a spiritual wound. Mainstream diet methods promise a quick fix… but they leave you discouraged and defeated. That’s why studies show that 90% of people who try these diets gain the weight back. And after so many repeated failures, you start to accept the lie from the enemy— “I just can’t figure out this one area of life.” And here’s what makes it even worse. Your pastors aren’t helping—they don’t talk about gluttony because they’re still struggling with it themselves. Other Christians make it harder. They say: 💬 "It’s no big deal!" 💬 "God gives you grace!" 💬 "Come on, one donut won’t hurt!" But I need you to ask yourself: Are the men telling you this the type of men you respect? Are they disciplined? Are they leading by example? Or are they justifying their own addiction to comfort? How I Know Exactly What You’re Feeling: Maybe you’re reading this, and you already know all of this. You know you shouldn’t be eating junk… but you do. You know you should be working out… but you skip it. You know you should stop turning to food for comfort… but you still do. And if you’re feeling convicted right now, I understand. Because I was once enslaved to sin in the exact same way. For over a decade, I was addicted to pornography. I was having premarital sex while still trying to be a Christian leader. I read my Bible, went to church, and knew exactly what I needed to do… Yet I kept falling into the same old pattern. I felt like I fraud. And, there was even this moment when I was finally convicted—just like you are now. I told my ex-fiance: “We’re not having sex anymore.” She looked me dead in the eyes and said: “If we’re not going to do that, then I’m leaving.” And I looked right back at her and said: “Okay. Leave. I choose Jesus.” She walked out the door. And I was proud of myself. I thought: “Thank you, Lord, for the strength to make this decision. I can finally honor You.” And then… Less than 24 hours later, I completely caved. I went right back to the very sin I swore to leave behind. And I remember standing in the bathroom afterward, looking in the mirror, so disgusted with myself that I couldn’t even make eye contact with my own reflection. I had completely lost hope. I told the devil: "You win." But that was a lie. And what I experienced next completely changed my life— And it’s the exact same process that will change yours. The Turning Point: How Everything Changed When I applied the process that I’m going to share with you today, not only did everything change… I experienced blessings in this area of my life that were so far beyond anything I had ever imagined. I broke free from addiction, married the love of my life, started working on a family, and 10x'ed my business, all while staying consistent and leveling up in my own fitness And that’s when I realized: 👉 This isn’t just about losing weight. 👉 This isn’t just about not being fat anymore. This is about the blessings that God has for you on the other side of discipline—blessings so powerful, so life-changing, that once you experience them, you will be incapable of doing anything except saying, “Glory to You, Lord.” How Do You Actually Go About Doing This? This is the exact process that I’ve helped over 800 guys (at the time of this post) go through inside our Christian-focused coaching company, Joey and I were responsible for all the transformations you'll see at These were men just like you. Men who were: • Losing weight temporarily but always gaining it back. • Struggling with multi-decade-long food addictions. • Convicted that they were called for more. • Fathers, husbands, even pastors—who knew God could redeem this area of their life but struggled to connect their faith to their fitness. But they finally broke free. And there were three key things that made that transformation possible. #1: They Changed the Unhealthy Default Actions That Were Keeping Them Stuck All of these men were struggling with things like: ❌ Overeating and mindless snacking ❌ Skipping workouts ❌ Eating late at night, binge eating ❌ Hitting snooze, sleeping in ❌ Overdrinking, struggling with food addiction ❌ Falling off the wagon on weekends, vacations, or business travel And worst of all? 👉 They would lose some weight… then let their habits slip again… which led to the weight coming back. 👉 Their body fat affected not just how they fit in clothes, but how other people saw them—even their daughters and wives started noticing and nagging them about it. 👉 For some of them, their hearts had become ticking time bombs, and they knew if they didn’t change, they would eventually suffer consequences that affected not just them, but their families and marriages. And even though you would think these things would be motivating enough… Like you’re probably thinking right now, “I should be motivated enough to change.” They were still choosing: ❌ Comfort over discipline. ❌ Food over their families. ❌ Laziness over being the leader their people needed them to be. #2: They Didn’t Have a Sustainable, Effective Approach That Worked With Their Busy Life Most of them had already tried: 📌 Dieting, weight loss challenges, personal trainers. 📌 Just trying to “get serious” and eat cleaner. 📌 Fad diets like Keto or Intermittent Fasting. 📌 Making their wife their accountability partner (which never works, because no man wants his wife to be his mommy—and no wife wants to be her husbands mommy). But nothing worked, because none of these were tailored to their bodies, goals, and lifestyle. 👉 The plans didn’t fit the busyness of home life and work. 👉 They didn’t account for vacations, networking events, or client dinners. 👉 They made them feel weird or awkward at dinner time with friends and family. 👉 The nutrition was too complicated for their wives to support. And worst of all? They were straight-up unsustainable. So they would always fall off the wagon—and the weight would always come back. #3: They Didn’t Have Real Accountability From Other Christian Men They Respected They tried using: ❌ Their wives (again—no wife wants to be their husband’s accountability partner). ❌ Their business network (but those guys were focused on business, not health). ❌ Their church groups (but their brothers in Christ didn’t have the specialized knowledge to help them actually execute). So between: ❌ Unhealthy default actions ❌ A lack of a sustainable, effective plan ❌ Not having real accountability They stayed stuck. That’s Why Default Kings Is Different We developed a system that actually works—one that helps you realign your default actions with your true identity in Christ. Because the problem isn’t that you don’t care. The problem isn’t that you’re unaware of these things. The problem is that your current system is failing you. Right now: 📌 Your default actions have brought you here. 📌 You don’t have a sustainable approach. 📌 You don’t have an effective plan. 📌 Your environment is full of people who reinforce your excuses instead of calling you higher. And every time you try to change, you keep getting pulled back into the same cycle. That’s exactly why we built Default Kings. Because this is not just another weight loss program. This is a battle plan for Christian men. A system designed to permanently rewire your habits. A system designed to rebuild your discipline. A system designed to finally help you take back control of your body and mind. Here’s What You’ll Get Inside Default Kings: 1. A Network of Christian Entrepreneurs Who Refuse to Let You Fail You’ll be surrounded by other Christian entrepreneurs who are walking the same walk. You’ll see the men who have already broken free. And when life gets hard, when you get busy, when motivation fades…This brotherhood will step in and keep you accountable. Because this isn’t just about fitness. This is about transforming into the man God called you to be. 2. The Default Actions Framework This is where the mindset shift happens. We help you reprogram your default actions at the core so that: ✅ Instead of battling cravings, you instinctively make better food choices. ✅ Instead of forcing yourself to work out, you naturally show up and execute. ✅ Instead of gaining the weight back, you become the man whose habits keep the weight off. This isn’t about forcing discipline. This is about making discipline natural. 3. A Simple, Results-Driven Eating System That Works in Real Life Forget: ❌ Extreme diets. ❌ Cutting out carbs or red meat. ❌ Being too busy to eat healthy. You’ll learn to eat in a way that actually increases your energy while still enjoying life. You will not be: ❌ That weird guy bringing Tupperware to client dinners. ❌ The guy starving himself and feeling miserable. ❌ The guy who can’t enjoy a meal with his wife and kids. This is not a temporary fix. This is a sustainable way of eating that you can stick to for good. 4. A Custom Training System Designed for Busy Christian Men Your training plan will be completely customized to fit your schedule. You don’t have time to train like a bodybuilder for 2 hours a day—so we focus on efficiency. 📌 If you can commit just 45 minutes, 3–4 times a week, you can do this. 📌 If you’re even busier, we can make it even more efficient. 📌 If you have more time and want to push harder, we’ll structure it accordingly. This isn’t just about losing weight. This is about building muscle and becoming physically capable—so that when the weight is off, you look in the mirror and see a man who reflects the strength and discipline God created you to have. 5. Direct Access to Expert Coaching and 24/7 Accountability You will not be left to figure this out alone. Inside Default Kings, you’ll have one-on-one access to: ✔️ Me ✔️ Joey ✔️ Our client success specialists Whenever you have a question, need an adjustment, or feel stuck, you will have direct access to expert support. No matter: 📌 What adjustments you need 📌 What schedule changes come up 📌 What travel plans you have We will personally make sure you stay on track. And even if you have pre-existing injuries or limitations, we will customize everything specifically for you. 6. Weekly Live Group Coaching Calls Inside the DK Inner Circle, you’ll have access to weekly group coaching calls where we’ll: 📌 Give you direct feedback to ensure you see results as quickly as possible. 📌 Help you rewire your default actions and overcome spiritual and mental barriers. 📌 Bring our faith into our fitness—yes, some of these calls will involve opening your Bible and seeing what God has to say about your health, habits, and mindset. This isn’t just physical transformation. This is spiritual transformation. 7. The Default Kings Private App Everything you need will be housed inside our private DK app, including: 📌 Your custom, step-by-step workout plans so you know exactly what to do. 📌 Structured meal guidance that adapts to your life. 📌 Real-time progress tracking so you can see how far you’ve come. No more guessing what to eat or wasting time in the gym not knowing what to do. This is a battle-tested system built to make results effortless. And yes—if you have any injuries or limitations, the entire plan will be built specifically for you. The Most Complete System Ever Created for Christian Entrepreneurs: 📌 This isn’t just another weight loss program. 📌 This isn’t a fad diet. 📌 This isn’t another “challenge” that leaves you gaining the weight back. This is the most complete system ever created for Christian men who are ready to: ✅ Change their default actions ✅ Lose the weight ✅ Keep it off—permanently And when you join Default Kings, you’re stepping into more than just a plan. 👉 You’re removing the obstacles that have kept you stuck. 👉 You’re eliminating the second-guessing and the self-doubt. 👉 You’re finally committing to a system that guarantees you never fall off track again. The Default Kings Promise: We guarantee that: ✔️ You will lose between 10–50 lbs in the next 90 days—or we’ll refund you in full. ✔️ You will keep the weight off—or we’ll refund you in full. If you follow the system, stay coachable, and engage in the process, this will be the last fitness program you will ever need. However—if you: ❌ Ignore the coaching ❌ Skip the workouts ❌ Refuse to be communicative, honest, and humble Then, of course, nothing will work. That’s why we track your progress every single day. We are personally committed to your success. 📌 If you struggle, we’ll step in. 📌 If you start to slip, we’ll call you higher. 📌 If you feel lost, we’ll guide you back. That is the entire purpose of Default Kings. We are here to make sure you win. Right Now, you are standing at a crossroads. You have three choices—and only one leads to transformation. Path #1: Do Nothing. Go back to life as it is. Click away from this page, pretend like you never saw this, open up the Uber Eats app, and order another comfort meal. Keep making excuses. Keep telling yourself, “I’ll figure it out later.” And six months from now? Nothing will change. Six years from now? You’ll still be frustrated, still lacking discipline, still convicted every time you look in the mirror—until you just accept it. And when that moment comes, you’ll wish you had taken action today. If you go that route, I pray for you and trust in God’s plan for your life. Path #2: Try to Do It Alone. You can take what you learn on X or chat GPT and try to piece together your own plan. You can do hours of research, attempt to hold yourself accountable, and try to willpower your way through it. And while that’s better than doing nothing… That’s the most common way that men fail. Because if you were capable of holding yourself accountable, you would have done it by now. If you had the time and knowledge to create a sustainable, effective, Biblically based fitness plan that works for your lifestyle, you would have done it by now. But you don’t need just another diet plan. You don’t need just another workout routine. You need a proven system that: ✅ Removes the confusion so you’re never guessing what to do next. ✅ Holds you accountable so you never fall off track again. ✅ Surrounds you with strong, Christian men who push you to succeed. ✅ Rewires your habits so that discipline becomes automatic. Going at this alone means you don’t have the coaching when you need help. It means you don’t have a group of men who can come into agreement with you about what God can do in this area of your life. It means you don’t have the battle-tested frameworks that have helped 800+ Christian men permanently transform their health. And that’s why most men who try to figure it out themselves end up right back where they started—or talking to me again six months later. Path #3: Say “Maybe.” You don’t have to say yes right now. Just say maybe. Maybe you’ve tried and failed before. Maybe you’ve thought about committing to a plan before. Maybe you know you need a real system that actually works for high-achieving Christian men. If that’s the case, then I want to make this easy for you. Instead of asking you to commit to the entire program right now, I’m asking you to commit to just a few minutes of your time for a Free Fat Loss Assessment. 📌 You’ll chat directly with me, Joey, or one of the other experts on our team. 📌 We’ll dive deep into the root cause of why you keep losing weight and gaining it back.| 📌 We’ll give you clear action steps on how to fix this permanently.| And if it makes sense, we’ll show you exactly how Default Kings works. This time is different. This time, you will win. But you have to take the first step. Click the link below and book your Free Fat Loss assessment today. 👇

If you're a Christian man, it is obvious to see that the world is controlled by Satan. Everywhere you look, we see evidence of this—from entertainment to politics to social media. It is clear that the enemy's agenda is at play, and it's an agenda designed to sabotage the men who have influence in the kingdom of God. And if you’re an entrepreneur who’s been struggling with your weight… You are being affected by this satanic agenda. Why Your Health Is Under Spiritual Attack: My name is Gabe Pluguez, and since 2019, alongside my business partner Joey Yochheim | Default Kings , we’ve been helping men break free from unhealthy patterns—for good. And we don’t just help men “get in shape.” We teach them a faith-based approach to changing their unhealthy habits so that they actually keep the weight off permanently. Like Jim— shown in the video, a 70-year-old C-suite executive who lost 53 lbs in 5 months, kept it off through the holidays, and has sustained it since after working together. Like Alex— shown in the video, a crypto entrepreneur and a dad of one who’s lost more than 40 lbs, has gotten abs, competes in Jiu-Jitsu, and has kept it off for over 2 years since after working together. Like Gavin— shown in the video, a 50-year-old father of six who was busy running multiple businesses but still lost 32 lbs in just 12 weeks. Or like Vinnie— shown in the video, an entrepreneur who’s lost 50 lbs and has kept it off for over 2 years since after working together. So here’s the thing. You already know the truth. You know that you shouldn’t be eating garbage. You know that you should be exercising consistently. You know that God made you in His image and that you’re designed to be strong and actually commanded to honor the body He gave you to carry out His mission for your life. Yet… that's not the reality you're experiencing. Why You Keep Failing to Fix This (Romans 7:15) You're experiencing exactly what Paul talks about in Romans 7:15: “I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do, I do not do, but what I hate, I do.” These are your unhealthy default actions. And if you’re like most Christian entrepreneurs, you’re probably sacrificing your health at the altar of your business. You tell yourself: • “I’ll fix it later.” • “Business and family obligations come before me.” But here’s something that might make you uneasy… That is the exact lie that the enemy wants you to believe. The Lie That’s Keeping You Weak, Tired, and Ineffective: Satan wants you to believe the lie that you are incapable of honoring your body while stewarding everything else. He wants you: ❌ Exhausted ❌ Weakened ❌ A slave to gluttony and sloth ❌ To set a poor example to the people you’re called to lead And additionally... Satan wants you dead... Early... Because if your body is weak, you’re easier to tempt. If you’re out of control, you have less influence over the people you’re supposed to lead. And if you die early—then you’re not even here. And maybe you’ve known this for a while. You’ve tried keto, intermittent fasting, Weight Watchers, Personal Trainers, or even Ozempic… But here’s the part you haven’t heard before. You’ve Been Lied To. You’ve been trying to use a temporary Band-Aid on a spiritual wound. Mainstream diet methods promise a quick fix… but they leave you discouraged and defeated. That’s why studies show that 90% of people who try these diets gain the weight back. And after so many repeated failures, you start to accept the lie from the enemy— “I just can’t figure out this one area of life.” And here’s what makes it even worse. Your pastors aren’t helping—they don’t talk about gluttony because they’re still struggling with it themselves. Other Christians make it harder. They say: 💬 "It’s no big deal!" 💬 "God gives you grace!" 💬 "Come on, one donut won’t hurt!" But I need you to ask yourself: Are the men telling you this the type of men you respect? Are they disciplined? Are they leading by example? Or are they justifying their own addiction to comfort? How I Know Exactly What You’re Feeling: Maybe you’re reading this, and you already know all of this. You know you shouldn’t be eating junk… but you do. You know you should be working out… but you skip it. You know you should stop turning to food for comfort… but you still do. And if you’re feeling convicted right now, I understand. Because I was once enslaved to sin in the exact same way. For over a decade, I was addicted to pornography. I was having premarital sex while still trying to be a Christian leader. I read my Bible, went to church, and knew exactly what I needed to do… Yet I kept falling into the same old pattern. I felt like I fraud. And, there was even this moment when I was finally convicted—just like you are now. I told my ex-fiance: “We’re not having sex anymore.” She looked me dead in the eyes and said: “If we’re not going to do that, then I’m leaving.” And I looked right back at her and said: “Okay. Leave. I choose Jesus.” She walked out the door. And I was proud of myself. I thought: “Thank you, Lord, for the strength to make this decision. I can finally honor You.” And then… Less than 24 hours later, I completely caved. I went right back to the very sin I swore to leave behind. And I remember standing in the bathroom afterward, looking in the mirror, so disgusted with myself that I couldn’t even make eye contact with my own reflection. I had completely lost hope. I told the devil: "You win." But that was a lie. And what I experienced next completely changed my life— And it’s the exact same process that will change yours. The Turning Point: How Everything Changed When I applied the process that I’m going to share with you today, not only did everything change… I experienced blessings in this area of my life that were so far beyond anything I had ever imagined. I broke free from addiction, married the love of my life, started working on a family, and 10x'ed my business, all while staying consistent and leveling up in my own fitness And that’s when I realized: 👉 This isn’t just about losing weight. 👉 This isn’t just about not being fat anymore. This is about the blessings that God has for you on the other side of discipline—blessings so powerful, so life-changing, that once you experience them, you will be incapable of doing anything except saying, “Glory to You, Lord.” How Do You Actually Go About Doing This? This is the exact process that I’ve helped over 800 guys (at the time of this post) go through inside our Christian-focused coaching company, Joey and I were responsible for all the transformations you'll see at These were men just like you. Men who were: • Losing weight temporarily but always gaining it back. • Struggling with multi-decade-long food addictions. • Convicted that they were called for more. • Fathers, husbands, even pastors—who knew God could redeem this area of their life but struggled to connect their faith to their fitness. But they finally broke free. And there were three key things that made that transformation possible. #1: They Changed the Unhealthy Default Actions That Were Keeping Them Stuck All of these men were struggling with things like: ❌ Overeating and mindless snacking ❌ Skipping workouts ❌ Eating late at night, binge eating ❌ Hitting snooze, sleeping in ❌ Overdrinking, struggling with food addiction ❌ Falling off the wagon on weekends, vacations, or business travel And worst of all? 👉 They would lose some weight… then let their habits slip again… which led to the weight coming back. 👉 Their body fat affected not just how they fit in clothes, but how other people saw them—even their daughters and wives started noticing and nagging them about it. 👉 For some of them, their hearts had become ticking time bombs, and they knew if they didn’t change, they would eventually suffer consequences that affected not just them, but their families and marriages. And even though you would think these things would be motivating enough… Like you’re probably thinking right now, “I should be motivated enough to change.” They were still choosing: ❌ Comfort over discipline. ❌ Food over their families. ❌ Laziness over being the leader their people needed them to be. #2: They Didn’t Have a Sustainable, Effective Approach That Worked With Their Busy Life Most of them had already tried: 📌 Dieting, weight loss challenges, personal trainers. 📌 Just trying to “get serious” and eat cleaner. 📌 Fad diets like Keto or Intermittent Fasting. 📌 Making their wife their accountability partner (which never works, because no man wants his wife to be his mommy—and no wife wants to be her husbands mommy). But nothing worked, because none of these were tailored to their bodies, goals, and lifestyle. 👉 The plans didn’t fit the busyness of home life and work. 👉 They didn’t account for vacations, networking events, or client dinners. 👉 They made them feel weird or awkward at dinner time with friends and family. 👉 The nutrition was too complicated for their wives to support. And worst of all? They were straight-up unsustainable. So they would always fall off the wagon—and the weight would always come back. #3: They Didn’t Have Real Accountability From Other Christian Men They Respected They tried using: ❌ Their wives (again—no wife wants to be their husband’s accountability partner). ❌ Their business network (but those guys were focused on business, not health). ❌ Their church groups (but their brothers in Christ didn’t have the specialized knowledge to help them actually execute). So between: ❌ Unhealthy default actions ❌ A lack of a sustainable, effective plan ❌ Not having real accountability They stayed stuck. That’s Why Default Kings Is Different We developed a system that actually works—one that helps you realign your default actions with your true identity in Christ. Because the problem isn’t that you don’t care. The problem isn’t that you’re unaware of these things. The problem is that your current system is failing you. Right now: 📌 Your default actions have brought you here. 📌 You don’t have a sustainable approach. 📌 You don’t have an effective plan. 📌 Your environment is full of people who reinforce your excuses instead of calling you higher. And every time you try to change, you keep getting pulled back into the same cycle. That’s exactly why we built Default Kings. Because this is not just another weight loss program. This is a battle plan for Christian men. A system designed to permanently rewire your habits. A system designed to rebuild your discipline. A system designed to finally help you take back control of your body and mind. Here’s What You’ll Get Inside Default Kings: 1. A Network of Christian Entrepreneurs Who Refuse to Let You Fail You’ll be surrounded by other Christian entrepreneurs who are walking the same walk. You’ll see the men who have already broken free. And when life gets hard, when you get busy, when motivation fades…This brotherhood will step in and keep you accountable. Because this isn’t just about fitness. This is about transforming into the man God called you to be. 2. The Default Actions Framework This is where the mindset shift happens. We help you reprogram your default actions at the core so that: ✅ Instead of battling cravings, you instinctively make better food choices. ✅ Instead of forcing yourself to work out, you naturally show up and execute. ✅ Instead of gaining the weight back, you become the man whose habits keep the weight off. This isn’t about forcing discipline. This is about making discipline natural. 3. A Simple, Results-Driven Eating System That Works in Real Life Forget: ❌ Extreme diets. ❌ Cutting out carbs or red meat. ❌ Being too busy to eat healthy. You’ll learn to eat in a way that actually increases your energy while still enjoying life. You will not be: ❌ That weird guy bringing Tupperware to client dinners. ❌ The guy starving himself and feeling miserable. ❌ The guy who can’t enjoy a meal with his wife and kids. This is not a temporary fix. This is a sustainable way of eating that you can stick to for good. 4. A Custom Training System Designed for Busy Christian Men Your training plan will be completely customized to fit your schedule. You don’t have time to train like a bodybuilder for 2 hours a day—so we focus on efficiency. 📌 If you can commit just 45 minutes, 3–4 times a week, you can do this. 📌 If you’re even busier, we can make it even more efficient. 📌 If you have more time and want to push harder, we’ll structure it accordingly. This isn’t just about losing weight. This is about building muscle and becoming physically capable—so that when the weight is off, you look in the mirror and see a man who reflects the strength and discipline God created you to have. 5. Direct Access to Expert Coaching and 24/7 Accountability You will not be left to figure this out alone. Inside Default Kings, you’ll have one-on-one access to: ✔️ Me ✔️ Joey ✔️ Our client success specialists Whenever you have a question, need an adjustment, or feel stuck, you will have direct access to expert support. No matter: 📌 What adjustments you need 📌 What schedule changes come up 📌 What travel plans you have We will personally make sure you stay on track. And even if you have pre-existing injuries or limitations, we will customize everything specifically for you. 6. Weekly Live Group Coaching Calls Inside the DK Inner Circle, you’ll have access to weekly group coaching calls where we’ll: 📌 Give you direct feedback to ensure you see results as quickly as possible. 📌 Help you rewire your default actions and overcome spiritual and mental barriers. 📌 Bring our faith into our fitness—yes, some of these calls will involve opening your Bible and seeing what God has to say about your health, habits, and mindset. This isn’t just physical transformation. This is spiritual transformation. 7. The Default Kings Private App Everything you need will be housed inside our private DK app, including: 📌 Your custom, step-by-step workout plans so you know exactly what to do. 📌 Structured meal guidance that adapts to your life. 📌 Real-time progress tracking so you can see how far you’ve come. No more guessing what to eat or wasting time in the gym not knowing what to do. This is a battle-tested system built to make results effortless. And yes—if you have any injuries or limitations, the entire plan will be built specifically for you. The Most Complete System Ever Created for Christian Entrepreneurs: 📌 This isn’t just another weight loss program. 📌 This isn’t a fad diet. 📌 This isn’t another “challenge” that leaves you gaining the weight back. This is the most complete system ever created for Christian men who are ready to: ✅ Change their default actions ✅ Lose the weight ✅ Keep it off—permanently And when you join Default Kings, you’re stepping into more than just a plan. 👉 You’re removing the obstacles that have kept you stuck. 👉 You’re eliminating the second-guessing and the self-doubt. 👉 You’re finally committing to a system that guarantees you never fall off track again. The Default Kings Promise: We guarantee that: ✔️ You will lose between 10–50 lbs in the next 90 days—or we’ll refund you in full. ✔️ You will keep the weight off—or we’ll refund you in full. If you follow the system, stay coachable, and engage in the process, this will be the last fitness program you will ever need. However—if you: ❌ Ignore the coaching ❌ Skip the workouts ❌ Refuse to be communicative, honest, and humble Then, of course, nothing will work. That’s why we track your progress every single day. We are personally committed to your success. 📌 If you struggle, we’ll step in. 📌 If you start to slip, we’ll call you higher. 📌 If you feel lost, we’ll guide you back. That is the entire purpose of Default Kings. We are here to make sure you win. Right Now, you are standing at a crossroads. You have three choices—and only one leads to transformation. Path #1: Do Nothing. Go back to life as it is. Click away from this page, pretend like you never saw this, open up the Uber Eats app, and order another comfort meal. Keep making excuses. Keep telling yourself, “I’ll figure it out later.” And six months from now? Nothing will change. Six years from now? You’ll still be frustrated, still lacking discipline, still convicted every time you look in the mirror—until you just accept it. And when that moment comes, you’ll wish you had taken action today. If you go that route, I pray for you and trust in God’s plan for your life. Path #2: Try to Do It Alone. You can take what you learn on X or chat GPT and try to piece together your own plan. You can do hours of research, attempt to hold yourself accountable, and try to willpower your way through it. And while that’s better than doing nothing… That’s the most common way that men fail. Because if you were capable of holding yourself accountable, you would have done it by now. If you had the time and knowledge to create a sustainable, effective, Biblically based fitness plan that works for your lifestyle, you would have done it by now. But you don’t need just another diet plan. You don’t need just another workout routine. You need a proven system that: ✅ Removes the confusion so you’re never guessing what to do next. ✅ Holds you accountable so you never fall off track again. ✅ Surrounds you with strong, Christian men who push you to succeed. ✅ Rewires your habits so that discipline becomes automatic. Going at this alone means you don’t have the coaching when you need help. It means you don’t have a group of men who can come into agreement with you about what God can do in this area of your life. It means you don’t have the battle-tested frameworks that have helped 800+ Christian men permanently transform their health. And that’s why most men who try to figure it out themselves end up right back where they started—or talking to me again six months later. Path #3: Say “Maybe.” You don’t have to say yes right now. Just say maybe. Maybe you’ve tried and failed before. Maybe you’ve thought about committing to a plan before. Maybe you know you need a real system that actually works for high-achieving Christian men. If that’s the case, then I want to make this easy for you. Instead of asking you to commit to the entire program right now, I’m asking you to commit to just a few minutes of your time for a Free Fat Loss Assessment. 📌 You’ll chat directly with me, Joey, or one of the other experts on our team. 📌 We’ll dive deep into the root cause of why you keep losing weight and gaining it back.| 📌 We’ll give you clear action steps on how to fix this permanently.| And if it makes sense, we’ll show you exactly how Default Kings works. This time is different. This time, you will win. But you have to take the first step. Click the link below and book your Free Fat Loss assessment today. 👇

Gabe Pluguez | Default Kings

291,037 次观看 • 1 年前

OF COURSE ISRAEL WAS INVOLVED IN THE ASS*SSINATION OF CHARLIE KIRK. Let me explain why. 🔖& share this. In November 2023, a leaked call from Jonathan Greenblatt of the ADL revealed a "major generational problem" regarding declining support for israel in America. He revealed polling that showed it wasn't "Left vs. Right," but it was "young vs. old." He called this the "TikTok problem," or the "Gen Z problem." He called Gen Z "useful idiots" and said the "real game" was to solve this problem. He called for the jewish community to put their collective brains together to solve this generational problem. Here's what we know they did: 1. They immediately pressured Tiktok to increase censorship. In November 2023 alone, TikTok deleted over 900,000 pro-Palestine videos. They also blocked various hashtags, including "israel did 911." 2. They mobilized a high-pressure campaign against the Ivy League campuses that were the epicenter of pro-Palestine protests & activism. Several university presidents were punished & replaced by jews and/or zionists willing to suppress free speech. (We must note that this campus activism was driven by Leftist organizations. This will be important later.) 3. They lobbied congress, which then passed new laws suppressing & punishing campus free speech & demonstrations classified as "antisemitic." 4. They lobbied congress to outright shut down & ban Tiktok, which congress obliged. However, Trump ended up "saving" TikTok, which was then forced to sell itself to a consortium of pro-israel jewish billionaires, led principally by uber-zionist Larry Ellison. That sale went through on September 16, 2025—6 days after Charlie Kirk was ass*ssinated. 5. In early 2025, the newly-installed Trump administration threatened to withhold $Hundreds of Millions in federal aid to several universities unless they put "safeguards" in place preventing the outbreak of pro-Palestinian activism (again defined as "antisemitism"). 6. In 2025, israel, through organizations like Israel365, started spending $Millions on sending hundreds of American "influencers" to israel in order to get them promoting the zionist cause and rehabilitating israel's image. 7. In 2025, Netanyahu launched Israel's "8th-Front" Information Warfare campaign, targeting the social media & AI landscape in the United States. Israel has earmarked an additional $729 million in FY2026 for these operations. 8. Zionist billionaires took over the entire CBS/Paramount media ecosystem in August 2025. (And they've just now added the entire Warner Bros. Discovery ecosystem, which they've also been pursuing since the fall of 2025). But despite all of this, israel had a problem. Call it the Charlie Kirk TPUSA problem. ▪️Charlie led a campus organization for youth ON THE RIGHT, with 600k+ lifetime members, and 250k+ active members. The largest organization of its kind, completely beholden to his leadership. ▪️Charlie generated billions of views on Tiktok & across the social media landscape, and was firmly opposed to censorship of all kinds including and explicitly speech critical of israel. ▪️Charlie was completely critical of the ADL, calling for its ban on social media & diametrically opposing its calls for more censorship. ▪️Charlie was extremely outspoken and critical of Left-wing jewish activism, which he blamed for the radical, open-borders Marxism ruining the country. ▪️Charlie actively asserted his massive influence to oppose regime-change war in Iran, pressuring Donald Trump inside the Whitehouse itself. ▪️Charlie was becoming increasingly critical of israel & zionism: questioning the suspicious events of 10/7, openly platforming debates against zionism, & himself leading discussions that advocated for cutting aid to israel, releasing the Epstein files, and calling for AIPAC to be registered as a foreign agent under FARA. It should be noted that demanding FARA registration of the israel lobby was one of the actions that got JFK ass*ssinated by the same people. ▪️Charlie was giving TPUSA platform access to powerful israel-critical voices like Tucker Carlson & Dave Smith, and intended to expand that to include Candace Owens. You have seen how ape-sh*t crazy they're going over Tucker & Candace—people who were telling the truth about Epstein & israeli control over the US government and also discouraging war with Iran. ▪️We now also know that Charlie was done with the pro-israel cause and had been signaling his intent to drop it. We have the leaked text, but that didn't happen in a vacuum. That was no doubt the culmination of a lot of momentum in that direction. Here's what I want you to realize if you haven't already: Charlie Kirk was single-handedly undoing or undercutting every move israel & organized jewry had made over the previous 2 years to solve the "Gen Z problem." Remember how organized campus opposition to israel came from the Left? Well here came Charlie Kirk re-platforming it on the Right! Charlie had transformed TPUSA into a Trojan horse—allowing & amplifying everything they'd sought to eliminate from the Left! Charlie Kirk was a massive roadblock to the jewish plan to re-conquer the minds of the youth of America. He was literally AND figuratively the Big Man On Campus. The most influential man in America on the youth. He was allowing and accelerating the rising generation to be radically anti-israel while simultaneously being "Conservative Republicans" in good standing who wouldn't be canceled. THE PLAN The israel-network tried several (ineffective) methods to solve the Charlie Kirk TPUSA problem. 1. They tried to quietly & privately influence him in private with through people like Josh Hammer & Rabbi Wolicki, and surround him with pro-zionists like Rob McCoy & Frank Turek. 2. They launched a high-pressure influence operation against him, which culminated in a 2-day "moral blackmail" event in the Hamptons. He took to the media to denounce these efforts. 3. They tried to outright buy him off when Netanyahu offered $150 million. He refused. 4. They tried to force his hand by pulling funding—notable was the $2 million withdrawn by Robert Shillman. He responded by launching a DOGE effort to shore up the finances and by announcing his intentions to leave the pro-israel cause. In summary: they dragged him privately & publicly; they blackmailed him; and then they tried to buy him. Nothing worked. He deflected everything, said 'NO,' and fought off all the attacks. He had resolved to find a new way forward with the new financial situation. Is there any doubt he would have succeeded? That left the israel-jewish network with only one option—an option that time-and-time-again they've been all too willing to resort to. Don't come at me with "Charlie Kirk supported israel!" and "Charlie Kirk loved the jews!" nonsense. John F. Kennedy also supported israel and embraced the jews. But there was a conflict: he put America first. And so did Charlie Kirk. My facts are true. And my logic is sound. I won't hear of this "lone gunman" nonsense any more. Miss me with the "Some random kid all by himself drove 300 miles on a week's notice, shoved a 110-year old gun down his pants, walked onto a roof directly in front of Charlie, delivered a perfect 1-shot/1-kill, escaped with no problem, and then immediately texted the whole plan to his furry roommate." israel would not be able to take this country to war against Iran if Charlie Kirk were still alive today. Period. I don't care how much he loved jews on a personal level. The hostile takeover of TPUSA was every bit as necessary as the hostile takeover of Tiktok and the Ivy league universities. Either you believe israel was the recipient of the most timely, fantastic stroke of geopolitical good luck ever, or you realize that Jonathan Greenblatt's injunction to take back Gen Z has been fulfilled in practically every particular.

OF COURSE ISRAEL WAS INVOLVED IN THE ASSSSINATION OF CHARLIE KIRK. Let me explain why. 🔖& share this. In November 2023, a leaked call from Jonathan Greenblatt of the ADL revealed a "major generational problem" regarding declining support for israel in America. He revealed polling that showed it wasn't "Left vs. Right," but it was "young vs. old." He called this the "TikTok problem," or the "Gen Z problem." He called Gen Z "useful idiots" and said the "real game" was to solve this problem. He called for the jewish community to put their collective brains together to solve this generational problem. Here's what we know they did: 1. They immediately pressured Tiktok to increase censorship. In November 2023 alone, TikTok deleted over 900,000 pro-Palestine videos. They also blocked various hashtags, including "israel did 911." 2. They mobilized a high-pressure campaign against the Ivy League campuses that were the epicenter of pro-Palestine protests & activism. Several university presidents were punished & replaced by jews and/or zionists willing to suppress free speech. (We must note that this campus activism was driven by Leftist organizations. This will be important later.) 3. They lobbied congress, which then passed new laws suppressing & punishing campus free speech & demonstrations classified as "antisemitic." 4. They lobbied congress to outright shut down & ban Tiktok, which congress obliged. However, Trump ended up "saving" TikTok, which was then forced to sell itself to a consortium of pro-israel jewish billionaires, led principally by uber-zionist Larry Ellison. That sale went through on September 16, 2025—6 days after Charlie Kirk was assssinated. 5. In early 2025, the newly-installed Trump administration threatened to withhold $Hundreds of Millions in federal aid to several universities unless they put "safeguards" in place preventing the outbreak of pro-Palestinian activism (again defined as "antisemitism"). 6. In 2025, israel, through organizations like Israel365, started spending $Millions on sending hundreds of American "influencers" to israel in order to get them promoting the zionist cause and rehabilitating israel's image. 7. In 2025, Netanyahu launched Israel's "8th-Front" Information Warfare campaign, targeting the social media & AI landscape in the United States. Israel has earmarked an additional $729 million in FY2026 for these operations. 8. Zionist billionaires took over the entire CBS/Paramount media ecosystem in August 2025. (And they've just now added the entire Warner Bros. Discovery ecosystem, which they've also been pursuing since the fall of 2025). But despite all of this, israel had a problem. Call it the Charlie Kirk TPUSA problem. ▪️Charlie led a campus organization for youth ON THE RIGHT, with 600k+ lifetime members, and 250k+ active members. The largest organization of its kind, completely beholden to his leadership. ▪️Charlie generated billions of views on Tiktok & across the social media landscape, and was firmly opposed to censorship of all kinds including and explicitly speech critical of israel. ▪️Charlie was completely critical of the ADL, calling for its ban on social media & diametrically opposing its calls for more censorship. ▪️Charlie was extremely outspoken and critical of Left-wing jewish activism, which he blamed for the radical, open-borders Marxism ruining the country. ▪️Charlie actively asserted his massive influence to oppose regime-change war in Iran, pressuring Donald Trump inside the Whitehouse itself. ▪️Charlie was becoming increasingly critical of israel & zionism: questioning the suspicious events of 10/7, openly platforming debates against zionism, & himself leading discussions that advocated for cutting aid to israel, releasing the Epstein files, and calling for AIPAC to be registered as a foreign agent under FARA. It should be noted that demanding FARA registration of the israel lobby was one of the actions that got JFK assssinated by the same people. ▪️Charlie was giving TPUSA platform access to powerful israel-critical voices like Tucker Carlson & Dave Smith, and intended to expand that to include Candace Owens. You have seen how ape-sht crazy they're going over Tucker & Candace—people who were telling the truth about Epstein & israeli control over the US government and also discouraging war with Iran. ▪️We now also know that Charlie was done with the pro-israel cause and had been signaling his intent to drop it. We have the leaked text, but that didn't happen in a vacuum. That was no doubt the culmination of a lot of momentum in that direction. Here's what I want you to realize if you haven't already: Charlie Kirk was single-handedly undoing or undercutting every move israel & organized jewry had made over the previous 2 years to solve the "Gen Z problem." Remember how organized campus opposition to israel came from the Left? Well here came Charlie Kirk re-platforming it on the Right! Charlie had transformed TPUSA into a Trojan horse—allowing & amplifying everything they'd sought to eliminate from the Left! Charlie Kirk was a massive roadblock to the jewish plan to re-conquer the minds of the youth of America. He was literally AND figuratively the Big Man On Campus. The most influential man in America on the youth. He was allowing and accelerating the rising generation to be radically anti-israel while simultaneously being "Conservative Republicans" in good standing who wouldn't be canceled. THE PLAN The israel-network tried several (ineffective) methods to solve the Charlie Kirk TPUSA problem. 1. They tried to quietly & privately influence him in private with through people like Josh Hammer & Rabbi Wolicki, and surround him with pro-zionists like Rob McCoy & Frank Turek. 2. They launched a high-pressure influence operation against him, which culminated in a 2-day "moral blackmail" event in the Hamptons. He took to the media to denounce these efforts. 3. They tried to outright buy him off when Netanyahu offered $150 million. He refused. 4. They tried to force his hand by pulling funding—notable was the $2 million withdrawn by Robert Shillman. He responded by launching a DOGE effort to shore up the finances and by announcing his intentions to leave the pro-israel cause. In summary: they dragged him privately & publicly; they blackmailed him; and then they tried to buy him. Nothing worked. He deflected everything, said 'NO,' and fought off all the attacks. He had resolved to find a new way forward with the new financial situation. Is there any doubt he would have succeeded? That left the israel-jewish network with only one option—an option that time-and-time-again they've been all too willing to resort to. Don't come at me with "Charlie Kirk supported israel!" and "Charlie Kirk loved the jews!" nonsense. John F. Kennedy also supported israel and embraced the jews. But there was a conflict: he put America first. And so did Charlie Kirk. My facts are true. And my logic is sound. I won't hear of this "lone gunman" nonsense any more. Miss me with the "Some random kid all by himself drove 300 miles on a week's notice, shoved a 110-year old gun down his pants, walked onto a roof directly in front of Charlie, delivered a perfect 1-shot/1-kill, escaped with no problem, and then immediately texted the whole plan to his furry roommate." israel would not be able to take this country to war against Iran if Charlie Kirk were still alive today. Period. I don't care how much he loved jews on a personal level. The hostile takeover of TPUSA was every bit as necessary as the hostile takeover of Tiktok and the Ivy league universities. Either you believe israel was the recipient of the most timely, fantastic stroke of geopolitical good luck ever, or you realize that Jonathan Greenblatt's injunction to take back Gen Z has been fulfilled in practically every particular.

Sam Parker 🇺🇸🧯

299,143 次观看 • 5 个月前

$AMD| The FOMO to buy AMD Chips is NOW 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only! The Inference Queen is the biggest winner in Agentic AI where all other CPUs are struggling to compete with a 2yr old EPYC Turin and EPYC Venice is in mass production phase. AMD stresses deployability today on standard x86 platforms (no proprietary architectures required), full software compatibility, and open standards. This positions Venice + Helios as a practical, high-density alternative to competing solutions while underscoring that agentic AI shifts the balance toward CPU-rich racks alongside GPUs, and most importantly, lowering the cost of token to accelerate adoption and innovation. Context: The Wall Street Journal yesterday came out with an article that OpenAI is condiering drasstically lowering the token prices to win more customers from Anthropic. The narrative "they" are trying to exacerbate the current AI selloff won't last long. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what is going on, or what I already discussed for months and years. Followers and Subscribers already knew this for years, that this day would come, where token cost will bcome the central discussion among enterprises as there is no such thing as unlimited budget or Tokenmaxxing when they use $NVDA chips or In-house Hyperscalers chips. I will link various threads if you are interested in understanding the full picture from supply chain to recent TSMC Rapid 2nm expansion up to 12 Fabs total by 2027/2028. Hyperscalers and AI natives effectively have no choice but to buy more AMD system for Agentic AI as leadership in economical, power-aware, high-volume internal + agentic use. However, due to supply constraints where Supply is far behind Demand, this makes multi-vendor reality along with in-house chips drive faster industry progress, lower overall costs, and better sustainability. NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin cannot compete with a 2 years old EPYC Turin, but AMD under Dr. Lisa Su has engineered the lowest cost-per-million-tokens, highly competitive energy-efficient solutions, and superior CPU orchestration for agentic AI at scale with Helios. Dr. Su has championed this shift since at least 2023, foreseeing the rise of agentic workflows that demand far more orchestration, parallel agents, and balanced compute well before the industry fully embraced it. Her long-term vision of AI moving from simple prompts to always on, multi-agent systems has driven AMD’s investments in high-core EPYC CPUs and integrated rack-scale solutions, perfectly positioning the company for today’s realities. The OpenAI-AMD 1GW Helios deployment (starting H2 2026) represents a pivotal vertical integration move that directly supercharges the inference economics. This isn't incremental; it's a structural shift toward ownership of massive, optimized rack-scale capacity, enabling the lowest token costs and triggering the enterprise adoption flywheel. We need to be honest, $AMD is the only company that made a big bet on Inference since the day Chatgpt became sensational where $NVDA and others were betting big on Training. At the end of the day, Token bill from Anthropic has to obey economics. Meaning the bills rise, companies have to get more out of it to justify the cost. It cannot be an unlimited inference budget, and it has to show up on efficiency, profitability and operating leverage. 1. Tokenomics After you understand this, you will understand why Citi cited Anthropic is likely to sign a deal with $AMD along with Hyperscalers, AI Labs, Sovereign AI like Softbank 5GW in France and many other countries. However, OpenAI and $META are now wanting faster deployment, and they are AMD shareholders now, they have prioritized allocation. Anthropic and Hyperscalers just cannot compete when Helios Rack lower token cost to$0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens at GW scale. Cost to build 1GW data center 1GW Helios Rack full build is estimated $30-$35B 1GW Rubin Rack full build is estimated $45-$55B Inference (Cost per Million Tokens) ~$NVDA B200 / HGX: ~$0.02–$0.08 on optimized workloads (FP4/MXFP4, speculative decoding). Significant improvement over Hopper but still premium-priced. GB200 NVL72 rack-scale: $0.05–$0.25+ ~$AMD Helios Racks: $0.0003-$0.0005 per M tokens, dramatically lower than NVIDIA equivalents in owned infra. MI355X node-level: Up to 40% more tokens per dollar vs. competing solutions ( B200), driven by higher memory capacity (up to 288GB+ HBM), strong bandwidth, and lower acquisition costs. Training ~$NVDA Rubin Rack is estimated $0.7-$1.2/M Tokens ~$AMD Helios Rack is estimated $0.65-$1.0/M Tokens Now, OpenAI, META and Hyperscalers can lower Inference cost even further with $AMD EPYC Venice "dense rack" or Agentic AI Rack. AMD published a detailed technical blog emphasizing that the future of agentic AI autonomous, multi-step AI systems requiring heavy orchestration, databases, caching, APIs, and control planes demands massive CPU-dense rack-scale infrastructure, not just GPUs. The catalyst prominently positions their upcoming 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors as the key enabler for next-generation dense racks, delivering leadership throughput under real-world power, cooling, and density constraints. ~EPYC Venice (Zen 6 architecture, up to 256 cores / 512 threads per socket) is projected to deliver exceptional rack-level performance. In AMD’s modeled 100 kW rack comparisons, Venice-powered systems are expected to achieve ~3.30x the throughput of NVIDIA’s Vera (88-core Olympus) baseline across a broad mix of agentic-supporting workloads. ~This builds on current-generation 5th Gen EPYC "Turin" (up to 192 cores), which already delivers ~2.37x rack throughput vs. Vera and ~1.6x vs. Intel’s Xeon 6980P (128 cores). ~ Liquid-cooled Turin deployments already support >27,000 CPU cores per rack today. Venice is architected to push this beyond 36,000 cores in the same rack class, dramatically increasing concurrent agent capacity and overall infrastructure efficiency. 2. Ownership vs renting compute from Hyperscalers matter to OpenAI and only owning $AMD chips can meaningfully lower token cost for enterprises. ~Eliminates cloud overhead: No provider margins, utilization buffers, or egress fees. Direct control over power contracts, cooling, scheduling, and orchestration at dedicated facilities. ~Helios optimizations at GW scale: Rack-level density (1.4+ exaFLOPS FP8 per rack), high HBM4 bandwidth, EPYC orchestration for agentic workloads, and superior TCO/TDP. AMD's long-standing focus on tokens per dollar/watt shines here 20-40%+ efficiency edges in inference-heavy scenarios. ~At 1GW+ optimized deployment, inference hits $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens (community/analyst models tied to Helios metrics). This is dramatically lower than typical rented/cloud equivalents, especially for high-volume output tokens in agentic flows. High token bills today, enterprises running heavy agentic/coding/analysis workloads can face $50-100M+/month at current API rates (flagship models $5-30+/M output, scaled to massive volumes). Post-Helios compression, same volume will drop to $10-15M/month (or better) via lower underlying costs passed through as pricing flexibility, volume tiers, caching, or batch discounts. ROI thresholds collapse. More companies greenlight pilots → production → massive scaling. Agentic AI (autonomous workflows) multiplies token demand exponentially, but affordability removes the friction. OpenAI gains flexibility, Unlike more cloud-dependent rivals (Anthropic), they can lower effective pricing, offer aggressive enterprise bundles, or absorb volume without margin destruction directly tackling "high token bill" complaints while maintaining profitability as usage explodes. 3. Agentic AI Models shifted CPU:GPU Ratio to 1:1 toward 3-5:1 with Explosively Token-Hungry Workloads Agentic AI (autonomous, multi-step agents with planning, tool use, iteration, and self-correction) is fundamentally more compute and token intensive than conversational or single-turn generative AI. Agentic AI. autonomous, multi-step workflows with orchestration, tool use, parallel agents, data movement, and enterprise integration has dramatically increased the importance of strong host CPUs alongside GPUs. This shifts the CPU-to-GPU ratio higher and makes balanced systems critical toward 1:1 to 5:1 as enterprises testing more than 5-10 agents. AMD EPYC Venice excels ~Leadership core density (up to 256 Zen 6 cores per socket) for running many agents in parallel, orchestration layers, and high-throughput control-plane tasks. ~Superior performance-per-core and power efficiency ( up to 2.1x higher perf/core and 2.26x better SPECpower vs. NVIDIA Grace in benchmarks). ~Tight integration in Helios: One Venice CPU + multiple MI450 GPUs per node, enabling efficient data feeding to GPUs ("zero-copy"), parallel execution, and full rack utilization for complex agentic loops. Hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Softbank) and AI natives (OpenAI, Anthropic...) are adopting high-core EPYC at scale specifically for these agentic demands, as CPUs now handle a larger share of non-model work (orchestration, policy enforcement, tool calls). This complements AMD’s lower-cost GPUs for overall TCO wins. ~Agents often generate 10–100x+ more tokens per task due to iterative reasoning chains, multiple tool calls, verification loops, and long-context orchestration. ~Goldman Sachs forecasts token consumption multiplying 24x by 2030 (to 120 quadrillion tokens/month) largely driven by agentic adoption in consumer and enterprise. ~Enterprise data shows agent-pattern workloads growing at 680% annualized rates, projected to surpass conversational AI in token volume by Q3 2026. ~Daily enterprise agent token consumption is already in the billions, with complex workflows (coding, workflows, analysis) amplifying this dramatically. 4. Competitive Edge: Winning Customers from Anthropic Anthropic’s Claude models (especially Opus/Sonnet) excel in complex reasoning and agentic coding, commanding premium positioning. However, their higher underlying costs (heavier reliance on third-party cloud with margins) limit pricing flexibility compared to OpenAI’s owned Helios capacity. Anthropic is on track to generate $10.9 billion in Q2 revenue. The company expects to achieve its first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit of $559 million. However, sustaining full-year profitability remains challenging due to immense computing and model training costs The truth is, Anthropic has no choice but to buy as much $AMD chips as possible if they want to compete with OpenAI or get investors attention. This 5% adjusted operating profit to revenue ratio is just pathetic. Current pricing dynamics (2026): OpenAI already undercuts on many tiers ( flagship output tokens significantly cheaper than equivalent Claude Opus). Nano/mini models offer 5–10x advantages for volume work. Anthropic holds edges in long-context flat pricing and certain reasoning quality. OpenAI after Helios Rack Ownership, At $0.0003–$0.0005/M effective costs, OpenAI gains massive headroom to: ~Aggressively discount high-volume agentic tiers or bundles. ~Offer “unlimited” enterprise plans or usage-based models that Anthropic struggles to match without margin erosion. ~Target cost-sensitive, high-throughput agent deployments (dev tools, automation platforms) where token bills explode. Enterprises facing $ millions in monthly agentic bills will migrate to the provider delivering better economics at scale. OpenAI’s combination of strong models (o-series reasoning) + lowest TCO positions it to erode Anthropic’s enterprise share, especially as agentic becomes the dominant token consumer. Cheaper tokens expand the total addressable market dramatically. This feeds the data/model improvement loop, justifying further capex. AMD benefits from proven scale pulling in more customers (Meta, Oracle, Microsfot, Amazon, Softbank, TensorWave, LumaAI ... already aligned on Helios). Conclusion: Dr. Lisa Su has been laser focused on inference economics since at least 2022–2023, repeatedly emphasizing that the real battleground for AI scalability would be TCO, power efficiency (TDP), and ultimately tokens per dollar and per watt not just raw training FLOPS. While many viewed inference as a secondary, commoditized workload, Dr. Su architected AMD’s roadmap around rack-scale systems optimized for high-volume, sustained inference that would dominate as models matured and usage exploded. Helios represents the culmination of that multi-year bet: a fully integrated, open platform designed precisely for the economics of massive token throughput. This deep, strategic partnership with OpenAI starting with the 1GW Helios deployment in H2 2026 and scaling to 6GW, is the embodiment of that shared vision. Both companies foresaw a future where agentic AI models evolve to become extraordinarily token-hungry: autonomous agents executing complex, iterative workflows with planning, tool use, verification loops, and long-context reasoning. These workloads can consume 100x+ more tokens per task than traditional chat or single-turn generation, driving exponential demand as capabilities improve and enterprises deploy them at scale. By owning and optimizing this massive Helios capacity at GW scale, OpenAI achieves inference costs as low as $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens. This structural cost advantage allows OpenAI to absorb the coming token explosion profitably, dramatically lower effective pricing for enterprises, and win high-volume agentic workloads from higher-cost competitors like Anthropic. What was once a prohibitive monthly token bill becomes an affordable accelerator for productivity and innovation. The OpenAI-AMD alliance validates Dr. Su’s prescient strategy and turns the Agentic flywheel into reality: Collapsing inference costs → explosive token consumption → richer data and better models → accelerate greater demand. This partnership doesn’t just address today’s economics, it positions both leaders at the center of the infrastructure buildout that will power AI’s next decade. By delivering the lowest inference economics at scale, OpenAI not only solves enterprise bill pain but gains a decisive weapon to win share from higher-cost rivals like Anthropic. And that is why OpenAI and $META will deploy EPYC Dense Rack Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only!

$AMD| The FOMO to buy AMD Chips is NOW 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only! The Inference Queen is the biggest winner in Agentic AI where all other CPUs are struggling to compete with a 2yr old EPYC Turin and EPYC Venice is in mass production phase. AMD stresses deployability today on standard x86 platforms (no proprietary architectures required), full software compatibility, and open standards. This positions Venice + Helios as a practical, high-density alternative to competing solutions while underscoring that agentic AI shifts the balance toward CPU-rich racks alongside GPUs, and most importantly, lowering the cost of token to accelerate adoption and innovation. Context: The Wall Street Journal yesterday came out with an article that OpenAI is condiering drasstically lowering the token prices to win more customers from Anthropic. The narrative "they" are trying to exacerbate the current AI selloff won't last long. This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what is going on, or what I already discussed for months and years. Followers and Subscribers already knew this for years, that this day would come, where token cost will bcome the central discussion among enterprises as there is no such thing as unlimited budget or Tokenmaxxing when they use $NVDA chips or In-house Hyperscalers chips. I will link various threads if you are interested in understanding the full picture from supply chain to recent TSMC Rapid 2nm expansion up to 12 Fabs total by 2027/2028. Hyperscalers and AI natives effectively have no choice but to buy more AMD system for Agentic AI as leadership in economical, power-aware, high-volume internal + agentic use. However, due to supply constraints where Supply is far behind Demand, this makes multi-vendor reality along with in-house chips drive faster industry progress, lower overall costs, and better sustainability. NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin cannot compete with a 2 years old EPYC Turin, but AMD under Dr. Lisa Su has engineered the lowest cost-per-million-tokens, highly competitive energy-efficient solutions, and superior CPU orchestration for agentic AI at scale with Helios. Dr. Su has championed this shift since at least 2023, foreseeing the rise of agentic workflows that demand far more orchestration, parallel agents, and balanced compute well before the industry fully embraced it. Her long-term vision of AI moving from simple prompts to always on, multi-agent systems has driven AMD’s investments in high-core EPYC CPUs and integrated rack-scale solutions, perfectly positioning the company for today’s realities. The OpenAI-AMD 1GW Helios deployment (starting H2 2026) represents a pivotal vertical integration move that directly supercharges the inference economics. This isn't incremental; it's a structural shift toward ownership of massive, optimized rack-scale capacity, enabling the lowest token costs and triggering the enterprise adoption flywheel. We need to be honest, $AMD is the only company that made a big bet on Inference since the day Chatgpt became sensational where $NVDA and others were betting big on Training. At the end of the day, Token bill from Anthropic has to obey economics. Meaning the bills rise, companies have to get more out of it to justify the cost. It cannot be an unlimited inference budget, and it has to show up on efficiency, profitability and operating leverage. 1. Tokenomics After you understand this, you will understand why Citi cited Anthropic is likely to sign a deal with $AMD along with Hyperscalers, AI Labs, Sovereign AI like Softbank 5GW in France and many other countries. However, OpenAI and $META are now wanting faster deployment, and they are AMD shareholders now, they have prioritized allocation. Anthropic and Hyperscalers just cannot compete when Helios Rack lower token cost to$0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens at GW scale. Cost to build 1GW data center 1GW Helios Rack full build is estimated $30-$35B 1GW Rubin Rack full build is estimated $45-$55B Inference (Cost per Million Tokens) ~$NVDA B200 / HGX: ~$0.02–$0.08 on optimized workloads (FP4/MXFP4, speculative decoding). Significant improvement over Hopper but still premium-priced. GB200 NVL72 rack-scale: $0.05–$0.25+ ~$AMD Helios Racks: $0.0003-$0.0005 per M tokens, dramatically lower than NVIDIA equivalents in owned infra. MI355X node-level: Up to 40% more tokens per dollar vs. competing solutions ( B200), driven by higher memory capacity (up to 288GB+ HBM), strong bandwidth, and lower acquisition costs. Training ~$NVDA Rubin Rack is estimated $0.7-$1.2/M Tokens ~$AMD Helios Rack is estimated $0.65-$1.0/M Tokens Now, OpenAI, META and Hyperscalers can lower Inference cost even further with $AMD EPYC Venice "dense rack" or Agentic AI Rack. AMD published a detailed technical blog emphasizing that the future of agentic AI autonomous, multi-step AI systems requiring heavy orchestration, databases, caching, APIs, and control planes demands massive CPU-dense rack-scale infrastructure, not just GPUs. The catalyst prominently positions their upcoming 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors as the key enabler for next-generation dense racks, delivering leadership throughput under real-world power, cooling, and density constraints. ~EPYC Venice (Zen 6 architecture, up to 256 cores / 512 threads per socket) is projected to deliver exceptional rack-level performance. In AMD’s modeled 100 kW rack comparisons, Venice-powered systems are expected to achieve ~3.30x the throughput of NVIDIA’s Vera (88-core Olympus) baseline across a broad mix of agentic-supporting workloads. ~This builds on current-generation 5th Gen EPYC "Turin" (up to 192 cores), which already delivers ~2.37x rack throughput vs. Vera and ~1.6x vs. Intel’s Xeon 6980P (128 cores). ~ Liquid-cooled Turin deployments already support >27,000 CPU cores per rack today. Venice is architected to push this beyond 36,000 cores in the same rack class, dramatically increasing concurrent agent capacity and overall infrastructure efficiency. 2. Ownership vs renting compute from Hyperscalers matter to OpenAI and only owning $AMD chips can meaningfully lower token cost for enterprises. ~Eliminates cloud overhead: No provider margins, utilization buffers, or egress fees. Direct control over power contracts, cooling, scheduling, and orchestration at dedicated facilities. ~Helios optimizations at GW scale: Rack-level density (1.4+ exaFLOPS FP8 per rack), high HBM4 bandwidth, EPYC orchestration for agentic workloads, and superior TCO/TDP. AMD's long-standing focus on tokens per dollar/watt shines here 20-40%+ efficiency edges in inference-heavy scenarios. ~At 1GW+ optimized deployment, inference hits $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens (community/analyst models tied to Helios metrics). This is dramatically lower than typical rented/cloud equivalents, especially for high-volume output tokens in agentic flows. High token bills today, enterprises running heavy agentic/coding/analysis workloads can face $50-100M+/month at current API rates (flagship models $5-30+/M output, scaled to massive volumes). Post-Helios compression, same volume will drop to $10-15M/month (or better) via lower underlying costs passed through as pricing flexibility, volume tiers, caching, or batch discounts. ROI thresholds collapse. More companies greenlight pilots → production → massive scaling. Agentic AI (autonomous workflows) multiplies token demand exponentially, but affordability removes the friction. OpenAI gains flexibility, Unlike more cloud-dependent rivals (Anthropic), they can lower effective pricing, offer aggressive enterprise bundles, or absorb volume without margin destruction directly tackling "high token bill" complaints while maintaining profitability as usage explodes. 3. Agentic AI Models shifted CPU:GPU Ratio to 1:1 toward 3-5:1 with Explosively Token-Hungry Workloads Agentic AI (autonomous, multi-step agents with planning, tool use, iteration, and self-correction) is fundamentally more compute and token intensive than conversational or single-turn generative AI. Agentic AI. autonomous, multi-step workflows with orchestration, tool use, parallel agents, data movement, and enterprise integration has dramatically increased the importance of strong host CPUs alongside GPUs. This shifts the CPU-to-GPU ratio higher and makes balanced systems critical toward 1:1 to 5:1 as enterprises testing more than 5-10 agents. AMD EPYC Venice excels ~Leadership core density (up to 256 Zen 6 cores per socket) for running many agents in parallel, orchestration layers, and high-throughput control-plane tasks. ~Superior performance-per-core and power efficiency ( up to 2.1x higher perf/core and 2.26x better SPECpower vs. NVIDIA Grace in benchmarks). ~Tight integration in Helios: One Venice CPU + multiple MI450 GPUs per node, enabling efficient data feeding to GPUs ("zero-copy"), parallel execution, and full rack utilization for complex agentic loops. Hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Softbank) and AI natives (OpenAI, Anthropic...) are adopting high-core EPYC at scale specifically for these agentic demands, as CPUs now handle a larger share of non-model work (orchestration, policy enforcement, tool calls). This complements AMD’s lower-cost GPUs for overall TCO wins. ~Agents often generate 10–100x+ more tokens per task due to iterative reasoning chains, multiple tool calls, verification loops, and long-context orchestration. ~Goldman Sachs forecasts token consumption multiplying 24x by 2030 (to 120 quadrillion tokens/month) largely driven by agentic adoption in consumer and enterprise. ~Enterprise data shows agent-pattern workloads growing at 680% annualized rates, projected to surpass conversational AI in token volume by Q3 2026. ~Daily enterprise agent token consumption is already in the billions, with complex workflows (coding, workflows, analysis) amplifying this dramatically. 4. Competitive Edge: Winning Customers from Anthropic Anthropic’s Claude models (especially Opus/Sonnet) excel in complex reasoning and agentic coding, commanding premium positioning. However, their higher underlying costs (heavier reliance on third-party cloud with margins) limit pricing flexibility compared to OpenAI’s owned Helios capacity. Anthropic is on track to generate $10.9 billion in Q2 revenue. The company expects to achieve its first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit of $559 million. However, sustaining full-year profitability remains challenging due to immense computing and model training costs The truth is, Anthropic has no choice but to buy as much $AMD chips as possible if they want to compete with OpenAI or get investors attention. This 5% adjusted operating profit to revenue ratio is just pathetic. Current pricing dynamics (2026): OpenAI already undercuts on many tiers ( flagship output tokens significantly cheaper than equivalent Claude Opus). Nano/mini models offer 5–10x advantages for volume work. Anthropic holds edges in long-context flat pricing and certain reasoning quality. OpenAI after Helios Rack Ownership, At $0.0003–$0.0005/M effective costs, OpenAI gains massive headroom to: ~Aggressively discount high-volume agentic tiers or bundles. ~Offer “unlimited” enterprise plans or usage-based models that Anthropic struggles to match without margin erosion. ~Target cost-sensitive, high-throughput agent deployments (dev tools, automation platforms) where token bills explode. Enterprises facing $ millions in monthly agentic bills will migrate to the provider delivering better economics at scale. OpenAI’s combination of strong models (o-series reasoning) + lowest TCO positions it to erode Anthropic’s enterprise share, especially as agentic becomes the dominant token consumer. Cheaper tokens expand the total addressable market dramatically. This feeds the data/model improvement loop, justifying further capex. AMD benefits from proven scale pulling in more customers (Meta, Oracle, Microsfot, Amazon, Softbank, TensorWave, LumaAI ... already aligned on Helios). Conclusion: Dr. Lisa Su has been laser focused on inference economics since at least 2022–2023, repeatedly emphasizing that the real battleground for AI scalability would be TCO, power efficiency (TDP), and ultimately tokens per dollar and per watt not just raw training FLOPS. While many viewed inference as a secondary, commoditized workload, Dr. Su architected AMD’s roadmap around rack-scale systems optimized for high-volume, sustained inference that would dominate as models matured and usage exploded. Helios represents the culmination of that multi-year bet: a fully integrated, open platform designed precisely for the economics of massive token throughput. This deep, strategic partnership with OpenAI starting with the 1GW Helios deployment in H2 2026 and scaling to 6GW, is the embodiment of that shared vision. Both companies foresaw a future where agentic AI models evolve to become extraordinarily token-hungry: autonomous agents executing complex, iterative workflows with planning, tool use, verification loops, and long-context reasoning. These workloads can consume 100x+ more tokens per task than traditional chat or single-turn generation, driving exponential demand as capabilities improve and enterprises deploy them at scale. By owning and optimizing this massive Helios capacity at GW scale, OpenAI achieves inference costs as low as $0.0003–$0.0005 per million tokens. This structural cost advantage allows OpenAI to absorb the coming token explosion profitably, dramatically lower effective pricing for enterprises, and win high-volume agentic workloads from higher-cost competitors like Anthropic. What was once a prohibitive monthly token bill becomes an affordable accelerator for productivity and innovation. The OpenAI-AMD alliance validates Dr. Su’s prescient strategy and turns the Agentic flywheel into reality: Collapsing inference costs → explosive token consumption → richer data and better models → accelerate greater demand. This partnership doesn’t just address today’s economics, it positions both leaders at the center of the infrastructure buildout that will power AI’s next decade. By delivering the lowest inference economics at scale, OpenAI not only solves enterprise bill pain but gains a decisive weapon to win share from higher-cost rivals like Anthropic. And that is why OpenAI and $META will deploy EPYC Dense Rack Not Financial Advice! DYOR! Research Purpose Only!

Mike

84,951 次观看 • 1 个月前

The World Is Not Linear: A Field Guide to the Laws That Quietly Run Everything Most smart people don’t fail because they’re dumb. They fail because they apply clean logic to a messy world — and the world punishes that mistake with a smile. The messy truth is that modern life is shaped less by individual intent and more by systems: incentives, competition, scaling effects, path dependence, and statistical weirdness. These systems produce outcomes that feel unfair or mysterious until you learn the underlying “laws” — a set of lenses that let you predict how things actually behave. This is not about becoming cynical. It’s about becoming accurate. Once you internalize these lenses, you start noticing that most disagreements aren’t about values. They’re about which hidden force you think dominates: Do incentives matter more than morals? Do networks scale value more than craftsmanship? Do rare events matter more than averages? Do systems evolve, or can they be designed? This article is a guided map through those forces — told as one story. 1) The seduction of “doing the obvious thing” Imagine you’re in charge of improving something important: a company, a city, a hospital, a school, a product, maybe even your own life. You do what responsible people do: you define a goal. You pick a metric. And you tell everyone: we’re going to win on this number. This is where the first trap snaps shut. Goodhart’s Law: the metric stops being real When a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure. Before it became a target, the metric was an instrument: a thermometer. After it becomes a target, it becomes a game. Hospitals improve “wait times” by changing intake rules. Companies improve “engagement” by nudging addiction. Schools improve test scores by teaching to the test. Police departments improve crime stats by changing what counts as a crime. Not because anyone is evil. Because the system rewards it. The principal–agent problem: the doers don’t pay This is the deeper engine under Goodhart. The person deciding is not the person suffering the consequences. Executives chase quarterly optics; employees deal with the chaos. Politicians chase election cycles; citizens live with the long-term effects. Managers chase easy metrics; customers absorb the frustration. Once you see principal–agent problems, you start seeing why seemingly intelligent organizations keep doing self-destructive things: the incentives are miswired. The Cobra Effect: perverse incentives grow cobras Sometimes this miswiring gets darkly funny. Reward outcomes and people will manufacture the appearance of outcomes. In the original parable, a colonial government offered a bounty for dead cobras — and people began breeding cobras. This isn’t historical trivia; it’s a universal pattern: Reward bug counts → people file junk bugs. Reward convictions → plea bargains + overcharging. Reward content volume → SEO sludge. Reward “delivery” → rushed work + tech debt. The world is full of cobra farms. 2) Why fixing things often makes them worse Okay, so: choose better metrics, align incentives, done. Not quite. Because even well-intentioned fixes trigger the next law: second-order effects. Chesterton’s Fence: don’t remove constraints you don’t understand You walk into an old system and see “stupid rules.” You want to clean house. You want to simplify. But: why is that rule there? Don’t remove a fence until you know why it was built. A lot of institutional weirdness is scar tissue from past disasters. The rule might be dumb — but if you don’t understand it, you don’t know what disaster you’re re-inviting. This is why naive reformers are dangerous: they confuse “not understanding a thing” with “the thing being pointless.” Gall’s Law: complex systems must grow from simple working ones Even if the fence is removable, you still hit the next problem: A complex system that works is always evolved from a simple system that worked. This demolishes a common fantasy: that you can design complexity from scratch. Most large redesigns fail for one reason: They try to create a finished organism instead of growing a living embryo. If the system matters, you don’t “implement” the final form. You build something simpler that works. Then you iterate. Gall’s law is harsh, but kind: it explains why so many ambitious “transformations” flame out. 3) Efficiency doesn’t save you (and sometimes consumes you) Now suppose you do manage to improve a system. You make it cheaper, faster, more efficient. Surely this reduces resource usage? Often, no. Jevons Paradox: efficiency increases total consumption When you make something more efficient, you often make people use more of it. Make lighting cheaper → people illuminate more spaces. Make driving more fuel-efficient → people drive farther. Make computing cheaper → people compute vastly more. Efficiency doesn’t always shrink the pie. It can expand it. This is one of the most important and least emotionally intuitive truths about progress: efficiency changes behavior. 4) Some things don’t get more efficient — and get expensive forever Now meet the mirror image of Jevons: not everything can get dramatically more productive. Some work is bottlenecked by time, humans, and attention. Baumol’s Cost Disease: sectors that don’t scale inflate A string quartet takes as long to play Beethoven as it did 200 years ago. A therapist can’t 10× their clients without breaking the thing. A teacher can’t “scale” classroom attention the way software scales distribution. Meanwhile, other industries do scale — manufacturing, computing, logistics. So as society grows richer, productivity sectors get cheaper and cheaper… and human-time sectors get relatively more expensive. That’s why: healthcare education legal services childcare eldercare …feel like they eat the world. Baumol isn’t “a problem to solve” so much as a physics constraint: certain value comes from human presence. And presence doesn’t compress easily. 5) The invisible accelerant: networks At this point you might feel like everything is doom and friction. It’s not. Some forces make systems wildly better as they grow. The biggest one is networks. Metcalfe’s Law: value scales with connections A phone is useless alone. A fax machine is useless alone. A social app is useless without other humans. As users increase, connections increase faster than users do. That creates accelerating value. Reed’s Law: groups scale even faster than connections But it’s not just one-to-one links. Once people can form groups — communities, coalitions, companies, subcultures — the number of potential groupings explodes. That’s Reed’s law: group-forming networks can scale with frightening speed. This is why networked platforms can go from “niche” to “dominant” almost overnight: the product isn’t just features — it’s the social graph. 6) Progress has a heartbeat: learning curves Not all progress comes from networks. Some comes from repetition. Wright’s Law: cost falls with cumulative production This is the law behind why solar, batteries, and manufacturing tech get cheaper and cheaper: Every doubling of cumulative production yields a predictable cost reduction. The implications are enormous: the future is shaped by what we manufacture at scale volume is not just output; it’s learning building the thing teaches you to build the thing better Strategy through Wright’s law becomes: maximize learning rate. Not “be brilliant,” but “iterate relentlessly.” 7) Cooperation is rare — and competition forces ugliness Now we move from economics into game theory and moral physics. Even with good metrics, good redesign, good scaling… Sometimes the system makes people do bad things. Prisoner’s Dilemma: defecting is rational If you and I cooperate, we both win. But if I suspect you might defect, I should defect first. So we both defect. We both lose. This structure appears everywhere: labor vs management nations vs nations companies vs companies roommates siblings Twitter discourse It’s tragedy-by-incentives. Moloch: the god of coordination failure “Moloch” is the poetic version of the same idea: systems where competition forces everyone into worse behavior, even if nobody wants it. No one wants the attention economy. But creators compete for attention. Platforms compete for engagement. So everyone converges on outrage and addiction. Moloch doesn’t need villains. It only needs incentives. 8) The biggest mistake smart people make: believing in averages Now we arrive at the statistical heart of why forecasts fail. Most planning assumes the world behaves like a bell curve: most outcomes are near the average, extremes are rare. In many domains, that’s false. Fat tails: extremes happen way more than you think In fat-tailed worlds, the “average” is a comforting lie. Outliers dominate: venture returns blockbuster movies bestselling authors company outcomes war and peace pandemics market crashes In a fat-tailed world: one event can erase ten years of progress or create it overnight Black swans: surprise + impact + fake hindsight A black swan isn’t just an outlier. It’s an outlier we didn’t know how to model. The signature of black swans is: huge impact surprise beforehand “it was obvious” afterward We are story machines. We can rationalize anything after it happens. Survivorship bias: you’re studying the winners This is why business advice is mostly nonsense. We read biographies of billionaires and imitate their habits — forgetting the cemetery of equally hardworking, equally smart people who lost. Survivorship bias turns randomness into “wisdom.” A good thinker always asks: what am I not seeing because it died? 9) The final set of tools: tradeoffs, simplicity, and time After you’ve internalized incentives, scaling, networks, and tail risk, you earn the right to something important: Less ideology. More judgment. That’s what these last lenses provide. Pareto efficiency: every improvement has a cost At some point, you stop making “free” gains and enter a world of tradeoffs. If you want more of A, you give up B. This is what breaks utopian thinking: more safety can mean less liberty more speed can mean less quality more fairness can mean less efficiency more growth can mean more inequality Smart people aren’t the ones who avoid tradeoffs. They’re the ones who name the tradeoff out loud. Occam’s Razor: don’t add gears without proof Now that you’re thinking in systems, you could easily overcomplicate. Occam is your brake pedal: prefer the simplest explanation that predicts. It’s not “simplicity is truth.” It’s: don’t hallucinate complexity. Lindy: time is the best filter we have In fragile worlds, “new” is often a synonym for “untested.” The Lindy effect says: the longer something has survived, the longer it’s likely to survive. Ideas, books, institutions, even practices: time is a stress test. Lindy isn’t anti-innovation. It’s pro-robustness. Comparative advantage: specialization beats self-reliance Finally, comparative advantage gives you the social version of Occam. Even if you’re worse at everything than someone else… trade can still make both better off, because efficiency comes from relative differences. That lens dissolves a lot of macho self-sufficiency myths. So what does this worldview do? It does three things. First: it replaces naive optimism with durable optimism Not “everything will work out.” But: we can build systems that don’t collapse under their own incentives. Second: it changes what you fear Not competitors. Not critics. Not even failure. You start fearing: bad metrics misaligned incentives brittle complexity tail risks coordination failure Which are the real predators. Third: it gives you a usable strategy A decision-making style that looks like this: Start simple (Gall) Measure carefully (Goodhart) Align incentives (principal–agent) Expect adaptation (cobra effect) Respect old constraints (Chesterton) Model scaling honestly (Metcalfe/Reed/Wright) Don’t assume efficiency saves you (Jevons/Baumol) Prepare for tails (fat tails / black swans) Don’t trust winner stories (survivorship bias) Name tradeoffs and keep models simple (Pareto + Occam + Lindy) That list is more than theory. It’s a survival kit for reality. Closing: the meta-law If I had to compress this entire worldview into one sentence, it would be: Outcomes come from incentives and scaling under uncertainty—not from intentions and plans. Most people live inside stories. This toolkit makes you live inside systems. And once you do, you become harder to fool — including by yourself.

The World Is Not Linear: A Field Guide to the Laws That Quietly Run Everything Most smart people don’t fail because they’re dumb. They fail because they apply clean logic to a messy world — and the world punishes that mistake with a smile. The messy truth is that modern life is shaped less by individual intent and more by systems: incentives, competition, scaling effects, path dependence, and statistical weirdness. These systems produce outcomes that feel unfair or mysterious until you learn the underlying “laws” — a set of lenses that let you predict how things actually behave. This is not about becoming cynical. It’s about becoming accurate. Once you internalize these lenses, you start noticing that most disagreements aren’t about values. They’re about which hidden force you think dominates: Do incentives matter more than morals? Do networks scale value more than craftsmanship? Do rare events matter more than averages? Do systems evolve, or can they be designed? This article is a guided map through those forces — told as one story. 1) The seduction of “doing the obvious thing” Imagine you’re in charge of improving something important: a company, a city, a hospital, a school, a product, maybe even your own life. You do what responsible people do: you define a goal. You pick a metric. And you tell everyone: we’re going to win on this number. This is where the first trap snaps shut. Goodhart’s Law: the metric stops being real When a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure. Before it became a target, the metric was an instrument: a thermometer. After it becomes a target, it becomes a game. Hospitals improve “wait times” by changing intake rules. Companies improve “engagement” by nudging addiction. Schools improve test scores by teaching to the test. Police departments improve crime stats by changing what counts as a crime. Not because anyone is evil. Because the system rewards it. The principal–agent problem: the doers don’t pay This is the deeper engine under Goodhart. The person deciding is not the person suffering the consequences. Executives chase quarterly optics; employees deal with the chaos. Politicians chase election cycles; citizens live with the long-term effects. Managers chase easy metrics; customers absorb the frustration. Once you see principal–agent problems, you start seeing why seemingly intelligent organizations keep doing self-destructive things: the incentives are miswired. The Cobra Effect: perverse incentives grow cobras Sometimes this miswiring gets darkly funny. Reward outcomes and people will manufacture the appearance of outcomes. In the original parable, a colonial government offered a bounty for dead cobras — and people began breeding cobras. This isn’t historical trivia; it’s a universal pattern: Reward bug counts → people file junk bugs. Reward convictions → plea bargains + overcharging. Reward content volume → SEO sludge. Reward “delivery” → rushed work + tech debt. The world is full of cobra farms. 2) Why fixing things often makes them worse Okay, so: choose better metrics, align incentives, done. Not quite. Because even well-intentioned fixes trigger the next law: second-order effects. Chesterton’s Fence: don’t remove constraints you don’t understand You walk into an old system and see “stupid rules.” You want to clean house. You want to simplify. But: why is that rule there? Don’t remove a fence until you know why it was built. A lot of institutional weirdness is scar tissue from past disasters. The rule might be dumb — but if you don’t understand it, you don’t know what disaster you’re re-inviting. This is why naive reformers are dangerous: they confuse “not understanding a thing” with “the thing being pointless.” Gall’s Law: complex systems must grow from simple working ones Even if the fence is removable, you still hit the next problem: A complex system that works is always evolved from a simple system that worked. This demolishes a common fantasy: that you can design complexity from scratch. Most large redesigns fail for one reason: They try to create a finished organism instead of growing a living embryo. If the system matters, you don’t “implement” the final form. You build something simpler that works. Then you iterate. Gall’s law is harsh, but kind: it explains why so many ambitious “transformations” flame out. 3) Efficiency doesn’t save you (and sometimes consumes you) Now suppose you do manage to improve a system. You make it cheaper, faster, more efficient. Surely this reduces resource usage? Often, no. Jevons Paradox: efficiency increases total consumption When you make something more efficient, you often make people use more of it. Make lighting cheaper → people illuminate more spaces. Make driving more fuel-efficient → people drive farther. Make computing cheaper → people compute vastly more. Efficiency doesn’t always shrink the pie. It can expand it. This is one of the most important and least emotionally intuitive truths about progress: efficiency changes behavior. 4) Some things don’t get more efficient — and get expensive forever Now meet the mirror image of Jevons: not everything can get dramatically more productive. Some work is bottlenecked by time, humans, and attention. Baumol’s Cost Disease: sectors that don’t scale inflate A string quartet takes as long to play Beethoven as it did 200 years ago. A therapist can’t 10× their clients without breaking the thing. A teacher can’t “scale” classroom attention the way software scales distribution. Meanwhile, other industries do scale — manufacturing, computing, logistics. So as society grows richer, productivity sectors get cheaper and cheaper… and human-time sectors get relatively more expensive. That’s why: healthcare education legal services childcare eldercare …feel like they eat the world. Baumol isn’t “a problem to solve” so much as a physics constraint: certain value comes from human presence. And presence doesn’t compress easily. 5) The invisible accelerant: networks At this point you might feel like everything is doom and friction. It’s not. Some forces make systems wildly better as they grow. The biggest one is networks. Metcalfe’s Law: value scales with connections A phone is useless alone. A fax machine is useless alone. A social app is useless without other humans. As users increase, connections increase faster than users do. That creates accelerating value. Reed’s Law: groups scale even faster than connections But it’s not just one-to-one links. Once people can form groups — communities, coalitions, companies, subcultures — the number of potential groupings explodes. That’s Reed’s law: group-forming networks can scale with frightening speed. This is why networked platforms can go from “niche” to “dominant” almost overnight: the product isn’t just features — it’s the social graph. 6) Progress has a heartbeat: learning curves Not all progress comes from networks. Some comes from repetition. Wright’s Law: cost falls with cumulative production This is the law behind why solar, batteries, and manufacturing tech get cheaper and cheaper: Every doubling of cumulative production yields a predictable cost reduction. The implications are enormous: the future is shaped by what we manufacture at scale volume is not just output; it’s learning building the thing teaches you to build the thing better Strategy through Wright’s law becomes: maximize learning rate. Not “be brilliant,” but “iterate relentlessly.” 7) Cooperation is rare — and competition forces ugliness Now we move from economics into game theory and moral physics. Even with good metrics, good redesign, good scaling… Sometimes the system makes people do bad things. Prisoner’s Dilemma: defecting is rational If you and I cooperate, we both win. But if I suspect you might defect, I should defect first. So we both defect. We both lose. This structure appears everywhere: labor vs management nations vs nations companies vs companies roommates siblings Twitter discourse It’s tragedy-by-incentives. Moloch: the god of coordination failure “Moloch” is the poetic version of the same idea: systems where competition forces everyone into worse behavior, even if nobody wants it. No one wants the attention economy. But creators compete for attention. Platforms compete for engagement. So everyone converges on outrage and addiction. Moloch doesn’t need villains. It only needs incentives. 8) The biggest mistake smart people make: believing in averages Now we arrive at the statistical heart of why forecasts fail. Most planning assumes the world behaves like a bell curve: most outcomes are near the average, extremes are rare. In many domains, that’s false. Fat tails: extremes happen way more than you think In fat-tailed worlds, the “average” is a comforting lie. Outliers dominate: venture returns blockbuster movies bestselling authors company outcomes war and peace pandemics market crashes In a fat-tailed world: one event can erase ten years of progress or create it overnight Black swans: surprise + impact + fake hindsight A black swan isn’t just an outlier. It’s an outlier we didn’t know how to model. The signature of black swans is: huge impact surprise beforehand “it was obvious” afterward We are story machines. We can rationalize anything after it happens. Survivorship bias: you’re studying the winners This is why business advice is mostly nonsense. We read biographies of billionaires and imitate their habits — forgetting the cemetery of equally hardworking, equally smart people who lost. Survivorship bias turns randomness into “wisdom.” A good thinker always asks: what am I not seeing because it died? 9) The final set of tools: tradeoffs, simplicity, and time After you’ve internalized incentives, scaling, networks, and tail risk, you earn the right to something important: Less ideology. More judgment. That’s what these last lenses provide. Pareto efficiency: every improvement has a cost At some point, you stop making “free” gains and enter a world of tradeoffs. If you want more of A, you give up B. This is what breaks utopian thinking: more safety can mean less liberty more speed can mean less quality more fairness can mean less efficiency more growth can mean more inequality Smart people aren’t the ones who avoid tradeoffs. They’re the ones who name the tradeoff out loud. Occam’s Razor: don’t add gears without proof Now that you’re thinking in systems, you could easily overcomplicate. Occam is your brake pedal: prefer the simplest explanation that predicts. It’s not “simplicity is truth.” It’s: don’t hallucinate complexity. Lindy: time is the best filter we have In fragile worlds, “new” is often a synonym for “untested.” The Lindy effect says: the longer something has survived, the longer it’s likely to survive. Ideas, books, institutions, even practices: time is a stress test. Lindy isn’t anti-innovation. It’s pro-robustness. Comparative advantage: specialization beats self-reliance Finally, comparative advantage gives you the social version of Occam. Even if you’re worse at everything than someone else… trade can still make both better off, because efficiency comes from relative differences. That lens dissolves a lot of macho self-sufficiency myths. So what does this worldview do? It does three things. First: it replaces naive optimism with durable optimism Not “everything will work out.” But: we can build systems that don’t collapse under their own incentives. Second: it changes what you fear Not competitors. Not critics. Not even failure. You start fearing: bad metrics misaligned incentives brittle complexity tail risks coordination failure Which are the real predators. Third: it gives you a usable strategy A decision-making style that looks like this: Start simple (Gall) Measure carefully (Goodhart) Align incentives (principal–agent) Expect adaptation (cobra effect) Respect old constraints (Chesterton) Model scaling honestly (Metcalfe/Reed/Wright) Don’t assume efficiency saves you (Jevons/Baumol) Prepare for tails (fat tails / black swans) Don’t trust winner stories (survivorship bias) Name tradeoffs and keep models simple (Pareto + Occam + Lindy) That list is more than theory. It’s a survival kit for reality. Closing: the meta-law If I had to compress this entire worldview into one sentence, it would be: Outcomes come from incentives and scaling under uncertainty—not from intentions and plans. Most people live inside stories. This toolkit makes you live inside systems. And once you do, you become harder to fool — including by yourself.

Carlos E. Perez

103,438 次观看 • 6 个月前

🟢GIVEAWAY🟢 Best comments or memes about this whole circus + RT this post. 10 winners will each get $50💎 (For evidence, supporting materials, and context, read both articles and watch the video included in the article I posted yesterday) Housebets.com & Porchy pay your debts A few people told me they did not fully understand the first article because there were too many moving parts: leaderboard accounts, rewards, weekly dates, monthly bonus, Tequity, game categories, withdrawals, Provably Fair, seed changes, migration, support tickets, ledgers and founder messages. Fair enough. The evidence is already there, and I still recommend reading the full articles and, above all, watching the video, because the video shows the reward system failing live. But this text is the cleaner version: the full story explained in plain English, without assuming the reader knows anything about crypto casinos, leaderboards or lossback systems. From all the evidence I’ve gathered, the Housebets story is not a normal “player lost money” complaint. It looks like a full transparency failure across the whole product: leaderboard, rewards, withdrawals, game categories, Provably Fair / Tequity mapping, support, migration and founder response. Housebets sold itself as a rewards-first casino: public leaderboards, weekly/monthly bonuses, fast withdrawals, VIP treatment and Provably Fair games. But every time I asked for the records behind those systems, snapshots, ledger entries, weekly cycles, GGR/NGR, slider logs, PF seed mapping, Tequity round IDs, withdrawal approval logs, the answer became some version of “forwarded to the relevant department.” This started long before the public dispute. I was not some random angry player who appeared after one bad session. In January I was helping Housebets and giving product feedback. I literally told support on 27 January that I was “testing the website for George,” while already dealing with a non-instant withdrawal and a 100% welcome bonus that had not applied. Support even asked me for “proof about your testing job.” The same chat shows the advertised 100% Welcome Bonus, the bonus not applying, and support saying the withdrawal needed internal confirmation instead of being instant. The welcome bonus issue never looked clean. Housebets advertised a 100% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 on first deposit; I deposited, contacted support, and the bonus did not apply. Then support effectively turned a first-deposit bonus into a second-deposit workaround because the first one had not been applied properly. On 31 January I came back after another deposit and told them the bonus still had not been applied, even though I had already followed support’s instructions. Edward replied that he had “forwarded” the concern to the team. The same 100% welcome bonus was still being advertised in March. By April, the rewards system was already showing serious problems. I had the weekly slider at 100% lossback and told support I had lost money but the weekly did not appear. Jacky said the weekly was generated every Thursday at 00:01 UTC and gave actual internal figures: GGR $6,250, Total Bonus $6,083.99, NGR $168.31. So Housebets clearly had internal calculations when it wanted to explain why something might not pay. But when I later asked for full calculations, those same numbers suddenly became impossible to produce. Then on 18–19 April, the rewards page was bugged and would not let me claim. Support could see a pending weekly bonus of $717.37, but I could not claim it from the UI. Tee said it had been forwarded to the relevant department. That $717.37 later appears in the bonus ledger as Rakeback (20 Apr) 717.37089061, so I am not saying that specific one stayed unpaid forever. The point is worse: already in April, support could see a pending weekly reward while the player-facing reward page did not work. For a casino built around rewards, that is not a small bug. That is the product. In May, the UI and account data kept failing basic trust checks. On 8 May, I deposited 400 USDT; support said it had been credited, but I could not see it, and the proposed fix was to log out, clear cookies and cache. On 16 May, I asked why total deposits and withdrawals had disappeared from the menu; support said the platform was “in continuous evolution.” On 17 May, I asked for my total deposits and withdrawals, and support said they did not have direct access to that consolidated summary and would email it. That full official ledger did not arrive. So when Housebets later defends itself with UI screenshots, remember: this was the same UI where deposits could be credited but invisible, totals disappeared, rewards pages bugged, and support could not access consolidated account totals. Withdrawals were also not what was advertised. On 16 May, I asked why a crypto withdrawal was pending if withdrawals were supposed to be instant. Tee answered: “A few withdrawals require manual approval,” then added, “Our withdrawals are typically instant but…” That matters because a few days later the withdrawal delay became real damage. On 25 May, I told support before a match that I needed the funds to place a time-sensitive bet on another site in less than 20 minutes. I explained I wanted to bet around 60k at odds of 2.55. The withdrawal did not arrive in time. Later I told them the bet won and that I missed around 90k in profit because Housebets took more than two hours despite being warned before the match started. Jacky said he would raise the compensation case to the VIP team. Nobody resolved it. This was not one delayed withdrawal either. In my formal complaint I reconstructed several withdrawal delays: 23 May 02:55 → 08:03, around 5h08m; 25 May 03:05 → 08:09, around 5h04m; 17 May 03:54 → 08:02, around 4h08m; 18 May 04:46 → 08:11, around 3h25m; 16 May 05:23 → 08:12, around 2h49m. That is not “instant withdrawal.” And if later marketing says withdrawals are much faster now, the obvious question is: if this was the faster version, what did slow look like? The Provably Fair / Tequity side was another major issue. On 17 May I asked support how to verify an old Blackjack round. I did not ask for a generic explanation of Provably Fair; I asked where I could see the server seed, client seed, nonce and result for previous games. Support sent me to bet history, mentioned RTP, gave a generic PF explanation and showed the current Dice seed screen. When I said that did not let me verify previous games, they told me to clear cookies/cache. After doing that, I saw a new client seed and nonce 1 even though I had not played with that seed pair. I asked if Housebets changes seeds on every login. Support could not answer and told me to contact VIP. That seed/session behaviour is important. I later recorded video evidence around the seed changing after clearing cookies/cache and asked for the exact mapping: Housebets account ID → Tequity/provider player ID → session/currency context → seed pair → server seed hash → revealed server seed → client seed → nonce/cursor → raw outcome → final result. Housebets cannot sell Provably Fair if the player cannot verify historical bets, and “contact VIP” is not a verification algorithm. On 24 May, I asked for raw verification data for a specific Tequity Blackjack round: Round ID e1648d60-0da1-4433-a5ab-9ae39f5302e3, Blackjack, Tequity, bet amount 11,346 USDT, client seed O3YBZF7LBu, server seed hash starting 712875.... I asked for revealed server seed, nonce, full result JSON, card draw order and verification algorithm. I also asked about an apparent duplicate-card/deck question. Tee replied: “I don’t have the answers to your questions right now, but I’m forwarding your request to the relevant department.” That same day, I asked for a full audit of six Dice bets of 11,400 USDT each, total 68,400 USDT. I requested bet IDs, provider round IDs, roll results, seed data, balance ledger, request/session logs, security logs, retry flags, provider records and a full technical reconciliation. Tee replied: “I will forward this to the relevant department.” So when I asked for raw data, the answer was not data. It was forwarding. Again. There were also many large loss clusters that required reconciliation because of those unresolved PF, Tequity, category, RTP and session questions. In my complaint I listed clusters such as 25 May 02:17–02:54 Blackjack around 169,932 USDT; 16 May 12:31–13:26 Dice around 90,571.92 USDT; 26 May 02:48–03:58 Mines around 89,199 USDT; 24 May 06:20–06:21 Dice at 68,400 USDT; 26 May 00:11–01:41 Blackjack around 59,910 USDT; 25 May 22:51–22:59 Dice around 59,576 USDT; and several more between 40k and 56k. I am not saying every losing cluster proves manipulation by itself. I am saying that when PF mapping, provider logs, RTP/HE, category mapping and seed/session behaviour are unresolved, these sequences need a real reconciliation. The leaderboard is where the story becomes very hard for Housebets to explain. Around 19–20 May, two new accounts, elmourabut and lucasmartirini, appeared and started climbing every day at a vertiginous pace. Not normal slow leaderboard growth. Not a casual player building volume over time. They were created around that period and then started rising with huge wagering in a way that looked extremely unnatural for brand new accounts. By 29 May, I was first on both weekly and monthly leaderboards, and those two accounts were directly behind me with huge volume. In the monthly leaderboard screenshots, I was around $3.33M wagered, while elmourabut was around $1.29M and lucasmartirini around $1.08M. In the weekly leaderboard, I was around $1.096M, while those two accounts were around $635k and $578k. They were not normal accounts sitting at the bottom; they were directly behind me, applying pressure. In my formal complaint I recorded that elmourabut joined on 19 May and lucasmartirini on 20 May, that they showed zero visible withdrawals, large deposits/wagering and significant card-game volume, and I asked Housebets to confirm they were not staff, test, QA, admin, house-controlled, affiliate-controlled, internally funded, promotional, bonus-only or multi-account related accounts. This matters because a leaderboard is not passive. It is gamification. It makes players defend rank. When two new accounts appear behind you with hundreds of thousands or more than a million in volume, you are pressured to keep wagering. In my case, the disputed deposit sequence from 25 May 22:23 to 26 May 02:09 totals 91,168.375326 USDT. That sequence begins with 1,000.00 at 22:23 and continues with repeated deposits until 2,879.148969 at 02:09. The video later shows why those dates matter: there were deposits coming in, no gameplay withdrawal offsetting the sequence, a balance basically at zero, and later a leaderboard prize shown as P/L. I formally asked Housebets to confirm those two leaderboard accounts were real and eligible, and also to preserve wager logs, transaction records, balance adjustment logs, account flags, leaderboard calculation snapshots, support ticket logs, Telegram/email records and internal notes. Edward said he forwarded the request. In the same thread, he added that they were “working on fixing an issue regarding the weekly bonuses,” and then said the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” So the leaderboard issue and the weekly bonus issue are linked in time and support context. After that, Housebets confirmed by email that elmourabut and lucasmartirini were “legitimate and eligible accounts.” That email is the trap door. If they were legitimate and eligible, they should have remained in the leaderboard with their volume. If they were not, Housebets should never have confirmed them as legitimate and eligible. After that confirmation, the accounts disappeared from the leaderboard or stopped appearing in the positions their previous wagering required. I went back to support on 30 May and wrote: “There has been a material post-confirmation leaderboard change involving two accounts that Housebets had already confirmed as legitimate and eligible. I need the exact reason, timestamp, logs, and recalculation basis.” Edward said the matter was flagged and that I could expect a prompt response. I am still waiting for the actual explanation. Why did they disappear? My read is simple: because every hour that passed, there was more evidence around those accounts. They had been created around the same period, they were climbing at a speed that looked anything but human, they showed no visible withdrawals in the data I could see and reported, they appeared to be generating huge volume in unclear game categories, and the games/categories tied to that volume did not even make sense from the player-facing UI. When I started asking what they were actually playing, what Card meant, whether the volume was Tequity / UnOriginals / House Games, what RTP and house edge applied, and where the logs were, the questions became uncomfortable. Keeping those accounts visible became harder than removing them. So they disappeared. The game category issue made the leaderboard even more suspicious. On 30 May, I asked support why my own stats showed almost all my volume under Slots / Tragamonedas when I did not play real slots. I told them: “i dont play 3$ in unoriginals,” “i played all 3M in unoriginals,” and “ive never play slots.” I asked what “Card” was, where that game was, what RTP and house edge it had. Monica said Card was mainly Blackjack, Baccarat and Poker variants. Marcus later said the team was investigating why it showed that I mostly played slots when I had not. He could not give the exact game, RTP, HE, provider, category mapping or contribution logic. That matters because those same unclear categories were connected to leaderboard volume. If the site cannot clearly explain whether volume is Slots, Card, UnOriginals, House Games, Blackjack, Baccarat, Always 9 Baccarat or Tequity, then the leaderboard is not auditable for the player. I even asked which UnOriginals those two accounts were playing, and support told me to look at Live Bets. That is not an answer. I was not asking for gossip; I was asking what exact games generated leaderboard volume, what RTP/HE applied and whether that volume was eligible. There is also an earlier leaderboard-related precedent: Porchy had already told me in February that I would lose leaderboard places if I did not rename, because too many people were messaging support saying the site was not being fair due to my name and it “doesn’t make us look good.” That matters because it suggests leaderboard positioning was not treated as a sacred, untouchable system when public perception was involved. If leaderboard positions can be threatened for image reasons, then later claims that everything is purely automatic deserve scrutiny. Then Porchy made the leaderboard situation worse. Instead of producing logs or snapshots, he later said the leaderboard had “abusers” on it, that they were removed to help other players, and that it never affected me. Later he said they paid every single person, “even these abusers,” then called me “begging for money.” That creates a direct contradiction: Housebets confirmed the accounts as legitimate and eligible, then Porchy referred to leaderboard “abusers.” If they were abusers, why were they confirmed as legitimate and eligible? If they were eligible, why did they disappear? If they never affected me, where are the historical snapshots proving that? Once those accounts disappeared, Housebets paid the leaderboard prizes. On 1 June, the bonus ledger shows two Leaderboard entries: 5,007.46111706 and 1,001.49222341, totaling 6,008.95334047. That part was paid. But then Act Two started: the weekly and monthly rewards did not appear as separate ledger entries. The same bonus ledger shows those two 1 June entries as Leaderboard only, not Monthly Bonus, not Weekly Reload, not Lossback. The weekly timeline is a mess. On 28 May, the dashboard / UI said the weekly bonus was claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC, and the monthly was available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. That same night I told support the weekly had shown as available, then reset to 6 days without paying. Later I sent screenshots and wrote: “1M wagered and 0.2$.” Jacky said he had raised the issue to the technical team. So the weekly failure was reported live, not reconstructed after the fact. The next day, 29 May, Edward said they were fixing an issue regarding weekly bonuses and that the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” Then on 1 June, Spencer said the May weekly bonuses were 7th, 14th, 21st, and then due to migration the weekly moved to Monday, so there was one on the 25th on the new platform. He also said the 25 May weekly covered gameplay from 21–24 May, and that tech was looking at that plus the monthly bonus. The ledger does show a 25 May 02:10 Rakeback entry of 1,996.08334791, which likely corresponds to that 21–24 May weekly. But my major loss sequence starts about 20 hours later, on 25 May at 22:23, and continues until 26 May at 02:09. So the 25 May weekly cannot cover those losses. If weekly was still Thursday, the 25/26 losses should have been in the 28 May weekly. But the bonus ledger on 28 May shows only two tiny Rakeback entries, 0.28373945 and 0.00280958. If weekly moved to Monday because of migration, those losses should have appeared in the next weekly after 25 May. But on 1 June the ledger only shows Leaderboard entries. Then the final video shows the next Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting to 6d 23h. So the same loss sequence appears to fall into no paid weekly cycle. The 4 June support conversation makes this even more ridiculous. After I recorded the weekly reset video, I asked support a very simple question: what were the last weekly dates/cycles? The dashboard / support flow again said weekly bonuses are claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC. Jacky confirmed: “Weekly bonuses can be claimed every Thursday at 00:01 UTC in the Rewards tab,” and added that if not claimed by the following Wednesday at 23:59 UTC, it expires. But when I asked for the exact last four dates, Jacky said he had to check with the relevant department. When I pressed again, he said, “Sorry, As I am only a CS, Let me raise your concerns to relevant department.” I asked whether support did not have the information or simply could not answer. He replied: “Do you have any other concerns?” They use weekly cycles to decide whether to pay, but support cannot explain the weekly cycle. The monthly is missing too. The dashboard / UI said the monthly bonus is based on activity and VIP level from the previous month and is available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. In May I had more than 3,258,023.0829 wagered according to the formal complaint data. I also have proof/video that the monthly slider was set to 50/50. On 1 June, Spencer first told me I had claimed the Monthly Bonus at 1:12am BST around the same time as the monthly leaderboard reward. I immediately said I only received leaderboard prizes. Then Spencer changed the answer: “Our tech team are still actively working on issues regarding the monthly bonuses.” So first the monthly was claimed, then tech was still fixing it. The ledger still shows no Monthly Bonus entry. Housebets then seems to rely on “up overall” as a defence. But the video and ledger show why that does not work. My weekly/monthly profile later showed around +6,008 P/L with 0 deposits, 0 wagered and around 6,008 in bonuses. That number matches exactly the two 1 June Leaderboard payments. So the UI is showing leaderboard rewards as P/L. Then support used “up overall” to say I was not eligible for weekly lossback. That is not a clean lossback calculation. That is using a leaderboard reward as apparent profit to deny a lossback that should be based on actual eligible losses. There were also smaller reward-confusion issues along the way. On 22 May I asked for all pending bonuses,weekly, monthly, rakeback, level-up, anything, and support said the internal team would manually verify whether everything had been credited correctly and email me. On 24 May, I asked about level-up rewards because the reward looked like $3,500 for Pearl; support clarified it was $3,500 total across all Pearl levels, $500 per level. These are not the core issues, but they are part of the same pattern: rewards marketing, unclear UI, manual verification, emails that do not arrive, and players having to chase basic explanations. Then there is the migration. On 25 May, after the delayed withdrawal, missing VIP contact and unresolved issues, support told me my account would be moved to the new platform and that this upgrade would offer a better withdrawal process and fix many issues. Before that migration, I explicitly requested that no account data, internal data, logs, balance history, bonus history, bet history, provider records or pending issues be deleted. The response: “Your request has been relayed to the relevant department.” Again, forwarding. But if the old data is safe, Housebets should provide the old leaderboard snapshots, old weekly states, old bonus logs, old Tequity mapping and old withdrawal approval logs. The founder response did not fix anything. When Porchy finally engaged, he did not provide the records. He framed the settlement request as “so you want $100,000?” and asked whether I needed it or else I was going to post on X. I had already made clear this was not money for silence; I asked for logs, snapshots, withdrawal records, calculations and a counter-calculation if Housebets disagreed. He later referred to “abusers,” told me I was “up overall,” said “You are begging for money,” and suggested I “just do this to casinos.” Still no ledger. Still no weekly calculation. Still no monthly entry. Still no PF/Tequity mapping. Still no leaderboard snapshots. Another player also contacted me with screenshots pointing to similar categories of issues: private deals, leaderboard payout disputes, migration/account merge problems, missing history and a tiny monthly bonus despite claimed losses. I am not using that player’s case as the foundation of my claim without his full ledger, but it matters because it suggests the same type of opacity may not be isolated: private VIP/reward deals, leaderboard eligibility, monthly bonus calculations, migration and unclear history. If Housebets has private deals that affect leaderboard eligibility or rewards, it must explain how those deals interact with public leaderboards. So the overall picture is this: Housebets sold a public leaderboard and rewards system that pressured real wagering. Two new accounts appeared directly behind me with huge volume, were confirmed as legitimate and eligible, then disappeared after I asked for logs and questioned game categories. Housebets could not explain the exact games, RTP, house edge or category mapping behind the volume. The accounts were later framed by Porchy as “abusers,” contradicting the earlier eligibility confirmation. Once Housebets paid me the leaderboard prizes, those prizes were shown as P/L, and that contaminated P/L was then used to claim I was “up overall” and not eligible for lossback. At the same time, my real 25 May 22:23 → 26 May 02:09 loss sequence of 91,168.375326 USDT appears in no clean weekly cycle. The 25 May weekly covered 21–24 May according to Spencer, so it cannot cover that loss sequence. The 28 May weekly showed only tiny Rakeback entries and was already reported as broken. The 1 June ledger shows only Leaderboard entries. The later video shows Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting. And when I ask support for the exact weekly calendar, they cannot answer and send it to the relevant department. The monthly is the same story. The dashboard / UI says it is based on activity and VIP. I had more than 3.25M wagered in May. Spencer first says I claimed it, then says tech is still working on monthly bonuses. The ledger shows no Monthly Bonus. If Housebets says I was not eligible, they need to show the formula, slider history, cycle, GGR/NGR, eligible loss/activity, deductions and ledger result. If they cannot, “not eligible” is just another label. And this opens another can of worms: Tequity / provider configuration. Housebets cannot hide behind “the provider” whenever something goes wrong. The player does not deposit with Tequity. The player does not withdraw from Tequity. The player does not speak to Tequity support. The player does not compete in a Tequity leaderboard. The player plays on Housebets, with a Housebets wallet, Housebets UI, Housebets rewards, Housebets leaderboard and Housebets support. 1/2

Dr. W

20,491 次观看 • 2 个月前

The outgoing American ambassador to Zambia, Michael C. Gonzales, has accused President Hakainde Hichilema’s government of corruption and dishonesty, stating that Hichilema’s fight against corruption is bogus and is selectively used to arrest and persecute political opponents. He made these remarks while delivering his farewell speech. He said Zambia loses over US$4 billion annually through illicit or dirty financial flows, money leaving the country and not benefiting the Zambian people. Full speech below Remarks by Amb. Michael Gonzales Farewell Reception – April 30, 2026 Good evening. For decades, the U.S. relationship with Zambia was one centered around aid. The United States has provided billions of dollars of assistance to Zambia, helping the country reach HIV epidemic control, contributing to a 20-year increase in life expectancy, slashing malaria deaths, and truly impacting the lives of every Zambian alive today. When we paused funding to review our assistance programs last year, so much of Zambia’s health system began to crumble almost overnight. Despite over $7 billion in U.S. health assistance since 2000 and the hard work of many Zambians alongside us, that crumbling system revealed that while we thought we were building capacity, successive Zambian governments had not built systems. Too often, Zambian officials and leaders abdicated their responsibilities, letting the United States pay for healthcare while officials diverted government funds to their own pockets. Last year I shed tears before the world when I announced a $50 million cut in US health assistance. After years of pleading, I could no longer stand by while the Zambian government refused to stop or take action to hold people accountable for the systematic and nationwide theft of U.S. provided medicines while the Zambian citizens for whom those were intended went without. One year later, not a single notable person has been arrested since last February. Not a single notable prosecution has even begun. After last year’s pause, we resumed almost all of our health assistance, over $400 million including over $75 million in medication. We continue to pay the salaries for over 23,000 healthcare workers, as we have for decades. Such is the legacy of America’s support to the Zambian people. Now, I know there have been alarmist allegations recently. But let me be clear, any suggestion that the United States would withhold critical life-saving healthcare support from those Zambians whose lives and health depend on it unless we get critical minerals is disgusting and patently false! In reality, since October, my government has offered over $2 billion in additional health and economic assistance to Zambia. But we can no longer accept empty promises. The future must look different. The Zambian government must also increase Zambian funding, staffing, and genuine ownership of its systems. This is not to impose our will, it is the only way we know for Zambia to truly own a sustainable healthcare system and to enable robust growth. It is the only way we know to ensure that system serves the people while finally breaking the cycle of foreign aid dependency. Since January, however, like with so many of our other overtures to the Zambian government, we have had effectively zero substantive engagement from Zambian officials to move these efforts forward. Our calls go ignored, questions unanswered, meetings cancelled, leaving us without even opportunities to speak, much less engage in substantive deliberations. Instead of continuing to languish without engagement, the actual funding under our Health MOU should have started this month. Instead, we have reached April 30 still cobbling together funds for mismatched projects without an implementation plan to guide us forward under Zambian leadership, much less a finalized MOU that guides our strategic approach. We know that the Zambian budget cannot even afford to pay for public services today, not to mention the increased healthcare funding or the myriad other huge budget commitments that seem to get pledged daily. So, something has to change if Zambia will ever meet its full potential or be able to sustainably provide services to its own people. At the same time, the Zambian government’s own reports reveal that every year Zambia loses over $4 billion in dirty money flows to East Asia. That is Zambian money that does not benefit the Zambian people or contribute to the budget. If taxed, that would bring an additional $1 billion for the government to fund healthcare, education, social services, and development. Every year, hundreds of millions of dollars of government funds are lost to the Zambian people through corruption. Certainly, it is not just U.S. taxpayers’ support that is stolen. Every year, the country loses out on hundreds of millions of dollars in new investment and growth because they are hijacked by unmitigated petty corruption, blocked because law-abiding investors refuse to pay kickbacks to Zambian bureaucrats or leaders who are never held accountable. The narrative of the U.S.-Zambia relationship is adorned with flowery words of “partnership,” “collaboration,” “strategic,” or “mutual.” Regrettably, the reality of our unrequited relationship for decades has been starkly different. For years, the United States funded programs and sent technical advisors to help achieve Zambia’s development objectives. As we have for these past four months, we have often struggled to get successive governments to even bother answering the phone. It takes months to get a meeting that yields nothing. Officials draft policies they have no intention of implementing, invoking them only in speeches to sound like they are taking action. MOUs decay on the shelf among the others before the signing ceremony even ends, never to be implemented because the ministry will not even meet to discuss implementation. Why? Because generations of Zambian officials and leaders gain from the dysfunction. The non-responsiveness on our availed funding and efforts to truly build a Zambian-owned health system that serves the Zambian people is sadly the norm. The theatre of commissioning a report to get a scandal out of the news cycle but taking no substantive action on accountability is all too common. Of course, the systematic theft of public resources is not unique to American-provided medicines. Attacking the messenger who dares to name these dynamics out loud is not limited to targeting the U.S. ambassador and asking Washington for his removal. Today, 10% of my diplomats have family members who still have not received basic residency permits from the Zambian government. Several have received court summonses as a result. Like Zambians themselves experience, ZRA staff shake down my departing diplomats for fees that do not apply to them too. When elevated, their supervisors double down on the demand. Zambia’s institutionalised and refined corruption does not only dissuade transparent and law-abiding investors from the United States. The inaction, corruption, and intimidation of opponents also harms American citizens, it undermines American organisations, NGOs, companies, and philanthropies. Zambians and so many other global friends of Zambia are also hampered by these very same dynamics, often bearing far more of the brunt of their effects. America’s support to Zambia is long-standing. Our goodwill runs through the veins, the hearts, and the dreams of millions of Zambians. Our hands remain open, outstretched in a genuine, transparent offer of true, tangible, and meaningful collaboration for mutual benefit. But there must be change. Going forward, the benefits of our relationship must be mutual. Empty promises must be replaced with tangible action. Commitments must be honoured, laws must be implemented and enforced consistently and equally. The decades of paying for healthcare while national resources are pocketed must give way to ownership and systematic improvements that enable growth, development, and accountability. Since President Hichilema and I committed to reset the U.S.-Zambia relationship last July, America has redoubled our efforts to support robust Zambian agency. We have availed billions of dollars to support tangible investments and reforms to catalyse Zambia’s success. We have offered expert support to inform reforms that would systematically benefit both the Zambian people and their many friends from around the world, without bias or favour. Sadly, so many of our overtures and goodwill have been met with, to use the most persistent and notorious of the Zambian government’s responses, “Noted. With thanks.” But appointing a Director General of the Anti-Corruption Commission who was actively under investigation by the ACC, and her admonishment to her intentionally under-resourced agency not to investigate senior government officials, only cripples hopes that clean business can be done. Last May, multiple senior government officials shared with me and have confirmed that the government has a 500-page expert report detailing the irreversible harm and risk of generations of birth defects, cancers, heart and liver disease caused by carcinogenic heavy metals unleashed into the Kafue River ecosystem by last year’s Sino Metals tailings dam disaster. But my heart broke when on July 29 last year, one of the country’s senior-most leaders vehemently denied that the government even had the report, much less would act on it until the polluter themselves provided it. I pleaded with her to take action to protect the Zambian people and I again offered U.S. assistance, which the Foreign Ministry had already formally declined. While so many American prospective investors leave, put off by bureaucratic drudgery, inaction, and corruption, the Zambian government recently approved Sino Metals to expand its operations. Did this happen in the face of Zambia’s myriad impediments, or because of them? Today, Sino Metals is scarring game management areas abutting the Kafue National Park. When that tailings dam breaks, I will not be alone shedding tears. Punctuating this, apart from the truly exceptional cases, too many American companies cannot get licences, approvals, or action on basic administrative matters without being shaken down to give brown envelopes of cash. The Zambian people suffer the consequences of these dual offences, exploitation and foregone opportunity. When Parliament ignores the Constitutional Court’s ruling that the process used to ram through a constitutional amendment was itself unconstitutional, investors rightly ask, “If they can do that to the constitution, what does that mean for the sanctity of my contract?” They rightly wonder if the next constitutional amendment which the Attorney General has already announced is really just a guise for resetting term limits. Even the Chinese government convicted AVIC’s Chairman to death for corruption. AVIC’s Chingola-Chililabombwe Road was washed out last month, its negligence disrupting Zambia’s trade with the region. AVIC’s fraud in a $320 million police housing tender in 2014 is well documented. Despite that, this government ignored the competitive bid by renowned Zambian investors only to award AVIC the $650 million Lusaka-Ndola Dual Carriageway project, subsidising this notoriously fraudulent and corrupt company with $300 million from the public pension scheme. How does this happen? Can law-abiding investors do clean business here? Will donors be asked to backfill the loss when the pension money too is wiped out? The rhetoric of “no sacred cows” is rubbish when there are not any cows except those who are deemed to be disloyal. When only opponents are arrested, but not those in office engaged in the very same practices, the hollow rhetoric of “rule of law” only further keeps investors away, preventing the creation of growth, jobs, and tax revenues to pay for public service commitments. Zambia does not need money. It needs leaders who govern for the people with integrity. It needs the political will to put Zambia first. But, of course, you do not need me to say this. Dambisa Moyo, herself a daughter of the soil, made these same arguments 17 years ago. What America is trying to do here is both bolster Zambia’s sovereignty and catalyse Zambia’s growth. We are offering a transparent and open hand to join the Zambian people for mutual progress. We know that while you pursue a Zambia First agenda and we pursue America First, we are still able together to achieve something notably better for both of our countries, and we can do so without it coming at anyone’s expense, anyone’s exclusion, fully transparently, and legally. Now, of course, the United States will absolutely continue to honour our long-standing commitment to the Zambian people to provide critical life-saving healthcare support. We will not leave Zambians without access to ARVs. We are redoubling our support to ensure that babies are not born HIV-positive. But, against the unmitigated systematic theft of U.S. assistance, against the refusal by the Zambian government to engage and to own or enable a sustainable healthcare system that serves the people, in an environment where only the most exceptional of American investors can do clean business, and where Zambian government officials often can scarcely be bothered to take meetings with American officials or companies, not to mention capture the billion dollars of its own money secreted out of the country to East Asia or hold accountable the company that unleashes generations of cancer and birth defects onto the people, without fundamental change, as the American Ambassador to the Republic of Zambia, how can I ask American taxpayers, Congress, or President Trump to continue the massive aid budgets that have been the hallmark of our relationship for decades? The United States remains intent to work with Zambia toward our mutual objectives, but how Washington responds to silence, inaction, aversion to accountability, and lack of ownership remains to be seen. That said, I am confident that it will depend on fundamental changes by the Zambian government to take action to do right by the Zambian people. It will depend on actions to foster and enable the Zambian people, and their partners who abide by the rule of law, to be able to tangibly contribute to a mutually beneficial future. Washington’s hand remains open and outreached for transparent, accountable collaboration enabling tangible action to benefit both of our countries. But we can no longer own the projects more than the Zambian government. We cannot justify continuing to prioritise funding where the Zambian government also does not deploy its own resources. No longer will we lead while Zambian officials sit back unresponsively. Quite simply, America can best support Zambia’s sovereignty, agency, and success if we finally abide by the maxim and refrain from wanting development more than the Zambian government does. That said, what happens between governments and embassies is important, but it is only a small fraction of the broader relationship between countries. The ties between Zambia and America are profound, strong, and everlasting. The connections between churches and civil society, the linkages between students, artists, and researchers, the bonds between communities, the union of our peoples, these are the essence of the U.S.-Zambia relationship, and these will never fade. Too often people hope for change. They note what others should do. But hope is not a strategy, and we cannot control the actions of others, only our own. So, as I prepare to leave this country that I love, I ask those of you whose country it is, is this the Zambia you want? Are you on course to achieve it? If not, what action will you take to contribute to making that become a reality? I first stepped foot in Zambia in 1995. My daughter took her first steps in Livingstone. As I prepare to depart, I take with me beautiful memories of Zambia and the Zambian people, but I depart with a heavy heart wondering if realisation of the Zambian dream will be deferred for yet another 64 years while even more Zambians fall into poverty instead of being able to rise into the brilliant future that is possible. But my role here is not about this little guy with a big heart for Africa. It is about America and Zambia. America will continue reaching out to the people of Zambia, offering our support, seeking as much to learn as to share, doing so openly and transparently, and eager to help enable the realisation of that Zambian dream and the creative future that benefits, and can only be discovered through, our sincere partnership. I thank you.

The outgoing American ambassador to Zambia, Michael C. Gonzales, has accused President Hakainde Hichilema’s government of corruption and dishonesty, stating that Hichilema’s fight against corruption is bogus and is selectively used to arrest and persecute political opponents. He made these remarks while delivering his farewell speech. He said Zambia loses over US$4 billion annually through illicit or dirty financial flows, money leaving the country and not benefiting the Zambian people. Full speech below Remarks by Amb. Michael Gonzales Farewell Reception – April 30, 2026 Good evening. For decades, the U.S. relationship with Zambia was one centered around aid. The United States has provided billions of dollars of assistance to Zambia, helping the country reach HIV epidemic control, contributing to a 20-year increase in life expectancy, slashing malaria deaths, and truly impacting the lives of every Zambian alive today. When we paused funding to review our assistance programs last year, so much of Zambia’s health system began to crumble almost overnight. Despite over $7 billion in U.S. health assistance since 2000 and the hard work of many Zambians alongside us, that crumbling system revealed that while we thought we were building capacity, successive Zambian governments had not built systems. Too often, Zambian officials and leaders abdicated their responsibilities, letting the United States pay for healthcare while officials diverted government funds to their own pockets. Last year I shed tears before the world when I announced a $50 million cut in US health assistance. After years of pleading, I could no longer stand by while the Zambian government refused to stop or take action to hold people accountable for the systematic and nationwide theft of U.S. provided medicines while the Zambian citizens for whom those were intended went without. One year later, not a single notable person has been arrested since last February. Not a single notable prosecution has even begun. After last year’s pause, we resumed almost all of our health assistance, over $400 million including over $75 million in medication. We continue to pay the salaries for over 23,000 healthcare workers, as we have for decades. Such is the legacy of America’s support to the Zambian people. Now, I know there have been alarmist allegations recently. But let me be clear, any suggestion that the United States would withhold critical life-saving healthcare support from those Zambians whose lives and health depend on it unless we get critical minerals is disgusting and patently false! In reality, since October, my government has offered over $2 billion in additional health and economic assistance to Zambia. But we can no longer accept empty promises. The future must look different. The Zambian government must also increase Zambian funding, staffing, and genuine ownership of its systems. This is not to impose our will, it is the only way we know for Zambia to truly own a sustainable healthcare system and to enable robust growth. It is the only way we know to ensure that system serves the people while finally breaking the cycle of foreign aid dependency. Since January, however, like with so many of our other overtures to the Zambian government, we have had effectively zero substantive engagement from Zambian officials to move these efforts forward. Our calls go ignored, questions unanswered, meetings cancelled, leaving us without even opportunities to speak, much less engage in substantive deliberations. Instead of continuing to languish without engagement, the actual funding under our Health MOU should have started this month. Instead, we have reached April 30 still cobbling together funds for mismatched projects without an implementation plan to guide us forward under Zambian leadership, much less a finalized MOU that guides our strategic approach. We know that the Zambian budget cannot even afford to pay for public services today, not to mention the increased healthcare funding or the myriad other huge budget commitments that seem to get pledged daily. So, something has to change if Zambia will ever meet its full potential or be able to sustainably provide services to its own people. At the same time, the Zambian government’s own reports reveal that every year Zambia loses over $4 billion in dirty money flows to East Asia. That is Zambian money that does not benefit the Zambian people or contribute to the budget. If taxed, that would bring an additional $1 billion for the government to fund healthcare, education, social services, and development. Every year, hundreds of millions of dollars of government funds are lost to the Zambian people through corruption. Certainly, it is not just U.S. taxpayers’ support that is stolen. Every year, the country loses out on hundreds of millions of dollars in new investment and growth because they are hijacked by unmitigated petty corruption, blocked because law-abiding investors refuse to pay kickbacks to Zambian bureaucrats or leaders who are never held accountable. The narrative of the U.S.-Zambia relationship is adorned with flowery words of “partnership,” “collaboration,” “strategic,” or “mutual.” Regrettably, the reality of our unrequited relationship for decades has been starkly different. For years, the United States funded programs and sent technical advisors to help achieve Zambia’s development objectives. As we have for these past four months, we have often struggled to get successive governments to even bother answering the phone. It takes months to get a meeting that yields nothing. Officials draft policies they have no intention of implementing, invoking them only in speeches to sound like they are taking action. MOUs decay on the shelf among the others before the signing ceremony even ends, never to be implemented because the ministry will not even meet to discuss implementation. Why? Because generations of Zambian officials and leaders gain from the dysfunction. The non-responsiveness on our availed funding and efforts to truly build a Zambian-owned health system that serves the Zambian people is sadly the norm. The theatre of commissioning a report to get a scandal out of the news cycle but taking no substantive action on accountability is all too common. Of course, the systematic theft of public resources is not unique to American-provided medicines. Attacking the messenger who dares to name these dynamics out loud is not limited to targeting the U.S. ambassador and asking Washington for his removal. Today, 10% of my diplomats have family members who still have not received basic residency permits from the Zambian government. Several have received court summonses as a result. Like Zambians themselves experience, ZRA staff shake down my departing diplomats for fees that do not apply to them too. When elevated, their supervisors double down on the demand. Zambia’s institutionalised and refined corruption does not only dissuade transparent and law-abiding investors from the United States. The inaction, corruption, and intimidation of opponents also harms American citizens, it undermines American organisations, NGOs, companies, and philanthropies. Zambians and so many other global friends of Zambia are also hampered by these very same dynamics, often bearing far more of the brunt of their effects. America’s support to Zambia is long-standing. Our goodwill runs through the veins, the hearts, and the dreams of millions of Zambians. Our hands remain open, outstretched in a genuine, transparent offer of true, tangible, and meaningful collaboration for mutual benefit. But there must be change. Going forward, the benefits of our relationship must be mutual. Empty promises must be replaced with tangible action. Commitments must be honoured, laws must be implemented and enforced consistently and equally. The decades of paying for healthcare while national resources are pocketed must give way to ownership and systematic improvements that enable growth, development, and accountability. Since President Hichilema and I committed to reset the U.S.-Zambia relationship last July, America has redoubled our efforts to support robust Zambian agency. We have availed billions of dollars to support tangible investments and reforms to catalyse Zambia’s success. We have offered expert support to inform reforms that would systematically benefit both the Zambian people and their many friends from around the world, without bias or favour. Sadly, so many of our overtures and goodwill have been met with, to use the most persistent and notorious of the Zambian government’s responses, “Noted. With thanks.” But appointing a Director General of the Anti-Corruption Commission who was actively under investigation by the ACC, and her admonishment to her intentionally under-resourced agency not to investigate senior government officials, only cripples hopes that clean business can be done. Last May, multiple senior government officials shared with me and have confirmed that the government has a 500-page expert report detailing the irreversible harm and risk of generations of birth defects, cancers, heart and liver disease caused by carcinogenic heavy metals unleashed into the Kafue River ecosystem by last year’s Sino Metals tailings dam disaster. But my heart broke when on July 29 last year, one of the country’s senior-most leaders vehemently denied that the government even had the report, much less would act on it until the polluter themselves provided it. I pleaded with her to take action to protect the Zambian people and I again offered U.S. assistance, which the Foreign Ministry had already formally declined. While so many American prospective investors leave, put off by bureaucratic drudgery, inaction, and corruption, the Zambian government recently approved Sino Metals to expand its operations. Did this happen in the face of Zambia’s myriad impediments, or because of them? Today, Sino Metals is scarring game management areas abutting the Kafue National Park. When that tailings dam breaks, I will not be alone shedding tears. Punctuating this, apart from the truly exceptional cases, too many American companies cannot get licences, approvals, or action on basic administrative matters without being shaken down to give brown envelopes of cash. The Zambian people suffer the consequences of these dual offences, exploitation and foregone opportunity. When Parliament ignores the Constitutional Court’s ruling that the process used to ram through a constitutional amendment was itself unconstitutional, investors rightly ask, “If they can do that to the constitution, what does that mean for the sanctity of my contract?” They rightly wonder if the next constitutional amendment which the Attorney General has already announced is really just a guise for resetting term limits. Even the Chinese government convicted AVIC’s Chairman to death for corruption. AVIC’s Chingola-Chililabombwe Road was washed out last month, its negligence disrupting Zambia’s trade with the region. AVIC’s fraud in a $320 million police housing tender in 2014 is well documented. Despite that, this government ignored the competitive bid by renowned Zambian investors only to award AVIC the $650 million Lusaka-Ndola Dual Carriageway project, subsidising this notoriously fraudulent and corrupt company with $300 million from the public pension scheme. How does this happen? Can law-abiding investors do clean business here? Will donors be asked to backfill the loss when the pension money too is wiped out? The rhetoric of “no sacred cows” is rubbish when there are not any cows except those who are deemed to be disloyal. When only opponents are arrested, but not those in office engaged in the very same practices, the hollow rhetoric of “rule of law” only further keeps investors away, preventing the creation of growth, jobs, and tax revenues to pay for public service commitments. Zambia does not need money. It needs leaders who govern for the people with integrity. It needs the political will to put Zambia first. But, of course, you do not need me to say this. Dambisa Moyo, herself a daughter of the soil, made these same arguments 17 years ago. What America is trying to do here is both bolster Zambia’s sovereignty and catalyse Zambia’s growth. We are offering a transparent and open hand to join the Zambian people for mutual progress. We know that while you pursue a Zambia First agenda and we pursue America First, we are still able together to achieve something notably better for both of our countries, and we can do so without it coming at anyone’s expense, anyone’s exclusion, fully transparently, and legally. Now, of course, the United States will absolutely continue to honour our long-standing commitment to the Zambian people to provide critical life-saving healthcare support. We will not leave Zambians without access to ARVs. We are redoubling our support to ensure that babies are not born HIV-positive. But, against the unmitigated systematic theft of U.S. assistance, against the refusal by the Zambian government to engage and to own or enable a sustainable healthcare system that serves the people, in an environment where only the most exceptional of American investors can do clean business, and where Zambian government officials often can scarcely be bothered to take meetings with American officials or companies, not to mention capture the billion dollars of its own money secreted out of the country to East Asia or hold accountable the company that unleashes generations of cancer and birth defects onto the people, without fundamental change, as the American Ambassador to the Republic of Zambia, how can I ask American taxpayers, Congress, or President Trump to continue the massive aid budgets that have been the hallmark of our relationship for decades? The United States remains intent to work with Zambia toward our mutual objectives, but how Washington responds to silence, inaction, aversion to accountability, and lack of ownership remains to be seen. That said, I am confident that it will depend on fundamental changes by the Zambian government to take action to do right by the Zambian people. It will depend on actions to foster and enable the Zambian people, and their partners who abide by the rule of law, to be able to tangibly contribute to a mutually beneficial future. Washington’s hand remains open and outreached for transparent, accountable collaboration enabling tangible action to benefit both of our countries. But we can no longer own the projects more than the Zambian government. We cannot justify continuing to prioritise funding where the Zambian government also does not deploy its own resources. No longer will we lead while Zambian officials sit back unresponsively. Quite simply, America can best support Zambia’s sovereignty, agency, and success if we finally abide by the maxim and refrain from wanting development more than the Zambian government does. That said, what happens between governments and embassies is important, but it is only a small fraction of the broader relationship between countries. The ties between Zambia and America are profound, strong, and everlasting. The connections between churches and civil society, the linkages between students, artists, and researchers, the bonds between communities, the union of our peoples, these are the essence of the U.S.-Zambia relationship, and these will never fade. Too often people hope for change. They note what others should do. But hope is not a strategy, and we cannot control the actions of others, only our own. So, as I prepare to leave this country that I love, I ask those of you whose country it is, is this the Zambia you want? Are you on course to achieve it? If not, what action will you take to contribute to making that become a reality? I first stepped foot in Zambia in 1995. My daughter took her first steps in Livingstone. As I prepare to depart, I take with me beautiful memories of Zambia and the Zambian people, but I depart with a heavy heart wondering if realisation of the Zambian dream will be deferred for yet another 64 years while even more Zambians fall into poverty instead of being able to rise into the brilliant future that is possible. But my role here is not about this little guy with a big heart for Africa. It is about America and Zambia. America will continue reaching out to the people of Zambia, offering our support, seeking as much to learn as to share, doing so openly and transparently, and eager to help enable the realisation of that Zambian dream and the creative future that benefits, and can only be discovered through, our sincere partnership. I thank you.

Hopewell Chin’ono

98,336 次观看 • 3 个月前

Election fraud in Guatemala… if happens here, it will happen in the US in 2024. The facts: 1. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Like the FEC in the US) is in charge of the election, and in this election they didn't had an IT Director, the previous one is currently in court prosecuted because of "anomalies" in the previous election. How they managed to have control on the different voting systems? 2. Before our General Elections, and after the call for elections when all parties were already registered and participating, some were suspended and dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which the Electoral and Political Parties Law (LEPP) forbids, some parties appealed to the Constitutional Court, as their right to vote and be elected was being violated, and to this day, haven't get any response from the Court. 3. On June 25, the General Elections were held. There were thousands of complaints from almost all party poll watchers. Among these complaints, there were reports of party poll watchers being kidnapped during the countdown; records being edited in the absence of party poll watchers, changing the votes; data tampering during data entry into the system; forgery of the original physical records; polling station officers refusing to provide the necessary paper forms to report this incidents, etc. The very same day, and the next day, many party poll watchers reported these incidents with the polling station officers to the Public Ministry (Kind of the General Attorney's Office in the US) and to the Constitutional Court. This is well documented in the video included in this post. 4. The Constitutional Court sent its ruling to the Supreme Court of Justice, and they ordered to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the Electoral Boards to compare the original records (white papers) with the copies (yellow papers), and to recount the votes, in a hearing, in the presence of party poll watchers and the media. The Electoral Boards didn't comply with the ruling, and the media was almost absent or didn't publish the complaints and findings, producing a general discontent and distrust in the electoral process. Some party poll watchers escalated their reports to the Public Ministry, reporting the misdeeds of the polling station officers. Several party poll watchers called for a repeat of the elections due to all the flaws found, and of course, the media pundits created the false narrative that auditing the records and recounting the votes was going against what was voted in the ballot boxes and against the electoral law, when in reality, it's a way to make the process more transparent and it is clearly stipulated in Article III of the Electoral and Political Parties Law 5. According to the dubious results, from the more than 20 candidates, for the first time in the country's history, the majority of the votes were null, the winner was null, which is a clear indication of the widespread discontent and mistrust for the Guatemalan political class, but because none of the candidates got more than 50%+1 of the votes, a second round is needed. Is worth noting that the second place after null was held by the UNE party, a left-wing political candidate Sandra Torres got it, and the third place in these dubious results was obtained by the political party "Movimiento Semilla", an extreme left-wing political party with a presidential candidate virtually unknown throughout the entire country, this raised suspicions among absolutely all Guatemalans, except for the typical media pundits who tried to justify it at all costs with any baseless excuse or narrative. 6. After some pressure from foreign forces, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that The Electoral Boards comply with what was needed, but this was a lie, they were pressured not to proceed with the legal process. It is worth noting that "Movimiento Semilla" party, is well connected with international forces, most of their members have belonged to NGOs founded by none other that George Soros through his Open Society Foundations, so is most of our media pundits, and most of the college professors, for instance, former Secretary-General and current Semilla's candidate for Congress, Samuel Andrés Pérez Alvarez, is son of the Abraham Samuel Pérez de León, who has been an advisor to the World Bank and the UNDP/PNUD; he is a professor in Universidad Rafael Landívar which receives grants from the Open Society Foundations for the "independent news site" called Plaza Pública where both father and son write their columns. 7. During the process, Guatemalan prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche issued a public statement exposing an open case against "Movimiento Semilla" party, a process that started around 2018, way before the elections. Curruchiche showed legal documents and evidence from the forensic agencies' expert examination, showing forgery of signatures in the party affiliation process, affiliating dead people, affiliations only with signature and without names. Considering that in Guatemala, in order to have a political party, you have to affiliate certain number of people, failing to do so, makes the legal figure that constitutes the party, lack the necessary foundation, thus, nullifying the party, but again, even without the legal representation, the party appealed to the Constitutional Court, which under foreign pressures, granted protection to the inexistent party, citing that the electoral law establishes that once the election call has been made, parties cannot be canceled. However, they did cancel other parties after the call, demonstrating that there is no equality before the law, and that this party has privileges due to its connections abroad. This was one of the complains of other candidate that was left out of the election on similar grounds. It is worth noting that the prosecutor notified the Supreme Electoral Tribunal about this matters since 2018, and they didn't nullify the party, and it is also worth noting that Semilla was reported for receiving funding from abroad, specifically, from the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD), and even tho there was a legal preceding, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal protected Semilla ignoring the law. 8. While all these events were transpiring, after hearing Semilla's almost unknown presidential candidate mention the elections observers from as the ones validating the results, I did a research on who were these election observers sent by the EU, who spare no expense with hundreds of members all over the country in quite expensive cars. It turns out that these observers, just before the election, held a meeting only with Semilla's presidential candidate and with no other candidate, most of its members are in fact, members of the party or acquaintances that have work along in the very same NGOs, and all the "influencers" and young tiktokers that support the party and engaged in smear campaigns against all other parties, were also election observers for and similar NGOs, the case of Romeo Alejandro Méndez Zuñiga who partnered with José Roberto Alejos Cámbara (brother of convicted Gustavo Adolfo Alejos Cámbara) in his NGO of observer called Caminemos Political Association, which has received grants from the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD). I wrote a long post with all the evidence, it is in Spanish but you can use any web translator, it includes a great hearing with .Rep. Scott Perry exposing how USAID (which is embedded in all this NGOs) is founding ideological groups in Guatemala: 9. Verifying that political parties comply with the law and do their job properly, without affiliating deceased individuals, without forged signatures, or affiliating only with signatures and without names as Semilla did, is the responsibility of the Registrar of Citizens, Ramiro José Muñoz Jordán, who was ordered by a judge to suspend the Semilla party, if he fail to comply with the ruling, appropriate measures will be issued, possibly facing a warrant, but before he was notified, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal grant him vacations, and his whereabouts are currently unknown. This lead to more distrust in the whole electoral process, and the opacity of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. 10. Recently, the corrupt President Magistrate of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, Irma Elizabeth Palencia Orellana, usurping functions, since according to our constitution, international relations are the exclusive domain of the executive branch, called for a statement from the Secretary-General of the OAS, Luis Almagro, who is aligned with the globalists of Semilla. We are experiencing an electoral fraud, one that is fiercely protected by foreign forces who seek impunity for both, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the corruption within the Semilla Party, a fraud strongly defended by the media by not only hiding what truly happened, but also distorting and misrepresenting the actual events and facts with unfounded narratives to manipulate the masses and public opinion, and if it happens here, in this laboratory of so many three letter foreign agencies, it will happen in the USA, as it always does. It happened here in 2019, it happened there in November 2020, it will be the same in 2024 there. Please, address this issue, do your own due diligence, there is a lot to uncover. .Donald Trump Jr. .Marjorie Taylor Greene .Mark R. Levin .GregGutfeld .Jesse Watters .Charlie Kirk .DC_Draino .Terrence K. Williams .Sebastian Gorka DrG .Ted Cruz .Steven Crowder .Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 .Rob Schneider 🇺🇸 .E . .End Wokeness .Tim Pool .James O'Keefe .Robert F. Kennedy Jr .Dr Jordan B Peterson .Ben Shapiro .Lex Fridman .MaryAnastasiaO'Grady .Salomondrin 🤖 .Luis Almagro

Election fraud in Guatemala… if happens here, it will happen in the US in 2024. The facts: 1. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Like the FEC in the US) is in charge of the election, and in this election they didn't had an IT Director, the previous one is currently in court prosecuted because of "anomalies" in the previous election. How they managed to have control on the different voting systems? 2. Before our General Elections, and after the call for elections when all parties were already registered and participating, some were suspended and dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which the Electoral and Political Parties Law (LEPP) forbids, some parties appealed to the Constitutional Court, as their right to vote and be elected was being violated, and to this day, haven't get any response from the Court. 3. On June 25, the General Elections were held. There were thousands of complaints from almost all party poll watchers. Among these complaints, there were reports of party poll watchers being kidnapped during the countdown; records being edited in the absence of party poll watchers, changing the votes; data tampering during data entry into the system; forgery of the original physical records; polling station officers refusing to provide the necessary paper forms to report this incidents, etc. The very same day, and the next day, many party poll watchers reported these incidents with the polling station officers to the Public Ministry (Kind of the General Attorney's Office in the US) and to the Constitutional Court. This is well documented in the video included in this post. 4. The Constitutional Court sent its ruling to the Supreme Court of Justice, and they ordered to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the Electoral Boards to compare the original records (white papers) with the copies (yellow papers), and to recount the votes, in a hearing, in the presence of party poll watchers and the media. The Electoral Boards didn't comply with the ruling, and the media was almost absent or didn't publish the complaints and findings, producing a general discontent and distrust in the electoral process. Some party poll watchers escalated their reports to the Public Ministry, reporting the misdeeds of the polling station officers. Several party poll watchers called for a repeat of the elections due to all the flaws found, and of course, the media pundits created the false narrative that auditing the records and recounting the votes was going against what was voted in the ballot boxes and against the electoral law, when in reality, it's a way to make the process more transparent and it is clearly stipulated in Article III of the Electoral and Political Parties Law 5. According to the dubious results, from the more than 20 candidates, for the first time in the country's history, the majority of the votes were null, the winner was null, which is a clear indication of the widespread discontent and mistrust for the Guatemalan political class, but because none of the candidates got more than 50%+1 of the votes, a second round is needed. Is worth noting that the second place after null was held by the UNE party, a left-wing political candidate Sandra Torres got it, and the third place in these dubious results was obtained by the political party "Movimiento Semilla", an extreme left-wing political party with a presidential candidate virtually unknown throughout the entire country, this raised suspicions among absolutely all Guatemalans, except for the typical media pundits who tried to justify it at all costs with any baseless excuse or narrative. 6. After some pressure from foreign forces, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that The Electoral Boards comply with what was needed, but this was a lie, they were pressured not to proceed with the legal process. It is worth noting that "Movimiento Semilla" party, is well connected with international forces, most of their members have belonged to NGOs founded by none other that George Soros through his Open Society Foundations, so is most of our media pundits, and most of the college professors, for instance, former Secretary-General and current Semilla's candidate for Congress, Samuel Andrés Pérez Alvarez, is son of the Abraham Samuel Pérez de León, who has been an advisor to the World Bank and the UNDP/PNUD; he is a professor in Universidad Rafael Landívar which receives grants from the Open Society Foundations for the "independent news site" called Plaza Pública where both father and son write their columns. 7. During the process, Guatemalan prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche issued a public statement exposing an open case against "Movimiento Semilla" party, a process that started around 2018, way before the elections. Curruchiche showed legal documents and evidence from the forensic agencies' expert examination, showing forgery of signatures in the party affiliation process, affiliating dead people, affiliations only with signature and without names. Considering that in Guatemala, in order to have a political party, you have to affiliate certain number of people, failing to do so, makes the legal figure that constitutes the party, lack the necessary foundation, thus, nullifying the party, but again, even without the legal representation, the party appealed to the Constitutional Court, which under foreign pressures, granted protection to the inexistent party, citing that the electoral law establishes that once the election call has been made, parties cannot be canceled. However, they did cancel other parties after the call, demonstrating that there is no equality before the law, and that this party has privileges due to its connections abroad. This was one of the complains of other candidate that was left out of the election on similar grounds. It is worth noting that the prosecutor notified the Supreme Electoral Tribunal about this matters since 2018, and they didn't nullify the party, and it is also worth noting that Semilla was reported for receiving funding from abroad, specifically, from the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD), and even tho there was a legal preceding, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal protected Semilla ignoring the law. 8. While all these events were transpiring, after hearing Semilla's almost unknown presidential candidate mention the elections observers from as the ones validating the results, I did a research on who were these election observers sent by the EU, who spare no expense with hundreds of members all over the country in quite expensive cars. It turns out that these observers, just before the election, held a meeting only with Semilla's presidential candidate and with no other candidate, most of its members are in fact, members of the party or acquaintances that have work along in the very same NGOs, and all the "influencers" and young tiktokers that support the party and engaged in smear campaigns against all other parties, were also election observers for and similar NGOs, the case of Romeo Alejandro Méndez Zuñiga who partnered with José Roberto Alejos Cámbara (brother of convicted Gustavo Adolfo Alejos Cámbara) in his NGO of observer called Caminemos Political Association, which has received grants from the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD). I wrote a long post with all the evidence, it is in Spanish but you can use any web translator, it includes a great hearing with .Rep. Scott Perry exposing how USAID (which is embedded in all this NGOs) is founding ideological groups in Guatemala: 9. Verifying that political parties comply with the law and do their job properly, without affiliating deceased individuals, without forged signatures, or affiliating only with signatures and without names as Semilla did, is the responsibility of the Registrar of Citizens, Ramiro José Muñoz Jordán, who was ordered by a judge to suspend the Semilla party, if he fail to comply with the ruling, appropriate measures will be issued, possibly facing a warrant, but before he was notified, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal grant him vacations, and his whereabouts are currently unknown. This lead to more distrust in the whole electoral process, and the opacity of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. 10. Recently, the corrupt President Magistrate of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, Irma Elizabeth Palencia Orellana, usurping functions, since according to our constitution, international relations are the exclusive domain of the executive branch, called for a statement from the Secretary-General of the OAS, Luis Almagro, who is aligned with the globalists of Semilla. We are experiencing an electoral fraud, one that is fiercely protected by foreign forces who seek impunity for both, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the corruption within the Semilla Party, a fraud strongly defended by the media by not only hiding what truly happened, but also distorting and misrepresenting the actual events and facts with unfounded narratives to manipulate the masses and public opinion, and if it happens here, in this laboratory of so many three letter foreign agencies, it will happen in the USA, as it always does. It happened here in 2019, it happened there in November 2020, it will be the same in 2024 there. Please, address this issue, do your own due diligence, there is a lot to uncover. .Donald Trump Jr. .Marjorie Taylor Greene .Mark R. Levin .GregGutfeld .Jesse Watters .Charlie Kirk .DC_Draino .Terrence K. Williams .Sebastian Gorka DrG .Ted Cruz .Steven Crowder .Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 .Rob Schneider 🇺🇸 .E . .End Wokeness .Tim Pool .James O'Keefe .Robert F. Kennedy Jr .Dr Jordan B Peterson .Ben Shapiro .Lex Fridman .MaryAnastasiaO'Grady .Salomondrin 🤖 .Luis Almagro

Rodrigo Polo

67,745 次观看 • 3 年前