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"12 state pension funds independently decided they needed Bitcoin exposure. CalSTRS alone holds 260,000 shares of $MSTR. These are 20-year actuarial models with five layers of compliance."⁣ ⁣ - Halston ⁣ ⁣ Teachers are underpaid. Let's orange pill them all.

15,145 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Michael Saylor just went on CNBC and said that if Bitcoin drops 90%, he'll simply "refinance the debt" and "roll it forward." This guy is a desperate fraud who has NO CLUE what he's talking about. Let's actually look at what "rolling it forward" means in reality: Strategy holds 714,644 Bitcoin purchased at an average cost of $76,056 per coin. Total acquisition cost: $54.35 billion. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000. Already below their cost basis. The company carries over $8 billion in debt. 100% of its convertible notes are now out of the money. Now imagine Saylor's own scenario. Bitcoin drops 90%. That takes it to roughly $6,800. Strategy's 714,644 Bitcoin would be worth approximately $4.9 billion. Against $8 billion in debt. The assets don't cover the liabilities. Period. And he thinks banks are going to refinance that? On what collateral? On what cash flow? Because Strategy's operating cash flow was negative $138 million in 2025. Down from negative $53 million the year before. The trajectory is going the wrong direction. When asked: "You think banks would lend to you at that point?" Saylor just laughed it off. But here's who's not laughing: 11 state pension funds that bought MSTR as a "regulated proxy" for Bitcoin exposure. CalPERS. New York State. Florida. Wisconsin. New Jersey. Teachers. Firefighters. Police officers. Together they hold 1.8 million shares. Their original investment: $577 million. Current value: $240 million. That's $337 million in paper losses. Most funds are down 60%. CalPERS, the largest public pension fund in the country, bought 448,000 shares for $144 million. That position has been cut nearly in half. These aren't hedge fund cowboys who can stomach a drawdown. These are retirement systems with fiduciary obligations to millions of public workers. Meanwhile $MSTR has fallen from $543 to roughly $123. Down 77% from its all-time high. Saylor says he'll buy Bitcoin "every quarter forever" and will never sell. But that's not how debt works. You don't get to choose when your creditors come calling. You don't get to "roll forward" $8 billion in debt when your only asset has collapsed and your operating business generates negative cash flow. The people who say "we'll just refinance" are always the ones who can't. The question isn't whether Saylor believes in Bitcoin. The question is whether pension funds managing trillions in retirement savings should be exposed to a leveraged single-asset bet run by a man who laughs off a 90% drawdown scenario on national tv. Teachers. Firefighters. State employees. Their retirement savings are sitting inside a company that just posted a $12.4 billion loss and whose chairman's contingency plan is "we'll figure it out." That's STUPID. And the people who'll pay the price aren't on CNBC. They're counting on those pensions to be there when they retire.

George Noble

136,473 views • 6 months ago

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

Adam Livingston

46,237 views • 1 month ago

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY - BITCOIN WILL FLIP GOLD🔥 Think Bitcoin is going to eventually flip gold as the world's #1 asset? In that case, you should be bullish on $MSTR! NAPKIN MATH: Let's make it simple with 20 million circulating BTC and gold also sees some inflows so it's $40T by the time the BTC flippening of gold happens. $40T / 20 million = $2 million per Bitcoin. When does this happen? No idea. Let's say it happens in 2038. Let's say zero MSTR mNAV expansion. Zero new Bitcoin acquired. They pay 12% on STRC until then. Dividends paid with MSTR issuance. They pay 0.55% on their debt and it never goes away (lol). RESULT: Bitcoin goes from $62,875 to $2 million. BTC return: 31.81x MSTR goes from $93.28 to approximately $4,253. MSTR return: 45.60x Again: Zero new Bitcoin acquired. Zero mNAV expansion. The preferreds remain outstanding. The debt remains outstanding. MSTR spends approximately $22.7 billion servicing STRC dividends and debt interest over the 12 years, entirely through common-stock issuance. And MSTR still outperforms Bitcoin. HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN? At the beginning, MSTR’s net senior claims equal approximately 292,251 BTC. At $2 million per Bitcoin, those exact same dollar claims equal only 9,188 BTC. The liabilities never disappear. They simply get beaten within an inch of their economic lives by the denominator. That releases approximately 283,064 BTC of residual value to the common equity without Strategy purchasing one additional sat. Common shareholders’ residual claim rises: 551,524 BTC → 834,587 BTC Paying 12 years of dividends and interest through MSTR issuance increases the share count by only: 384.6 million → 406.0 million Just 5.6% dilution. So CEBE per share rises: 143,404 sats → 205,562 sats That is 43.3% growth in claims-adjusted Bitcoin exposure per share while the gross Bitcoin treasury remains completely unchanged. The return equation becomes: 31.81x BTC appreciation × 1.433x CEBE-per-share growth × 1.00x mNAV change = 45.60x MSTR $10,000 invested in Bitcoin becomes approximately $318,000. $10,000 invested in MSTR becomes approximately. $456,000 MSTR creates roughly $138,000 of additional terminal wealth on the same $10,000 investment while buying zero additional Bitcoin. This is the part MSTR bears cannot process because their mental model of a capital structure is a shoebox with the word “DEBT” written on the lid in crayon. MSTR is not merely a static jar of Bitcoin. Common shareholders own the residual claim behind fixed-fiat liabilities wrapped around scarce collateral. As Bitcoin appreciates, those dollar liabilities consume fewer sats. The value released by that compression flows to common equity. At $2 million Bitcoin, the debt is still technically there. It just has the economic significance of a parking ticket taped to an aircraft carrier. The Bitcoin flippening would not merely dethrone gold. It would turn MSTR’s capital structure into a 12 year public execution of the dollar denominator:

Adam Livingston

24,340 views • 1 month ago

ORANGE $PILL: WEEK 1 UPDATE + MAJOR PARTNERSHIP ANNOUNCEMENT 🍊💊 BURN 2 EARN - WEEK 1 OF 6 COMPLETE ~155 BTC worth of dead tokens burned so far. Breakdown: - BRC-20s: 2.99% - Runes: 2.66% - Alkanes: 0.06% - CBRC-20s: 94.29% The community support has been incredible. 5 more weeks to go. --- THE BIG NEWS We've been watching where our burn volume is coming from. The answer was clear: the OP_NET community has shown up harder than anyone. So we reached out to the OP_NET team. What happened next exceeded every expectation. --- ANNOUNCING: ORANGE PILL x OP_NET x MOTOSWAP PARTNERSHIP The OP_NET and Motoswap teams have officially agreed to support and endorse the Orange PILL initiative. Let's be crystal clear about what this is: Orange $PILL is an INDEPENDENT community project. We are NOT an official OP_NET protocol token. OP_NET will never have a protocol token - the only gas token OP_NET uses is and always will be $BTC. What we ARE: A community-driven unification token that is now officially aligned with and supported by the OP_NET ecosystem. --- WHY THIS PARTNERSHIP MAKES SENSE The OP_NET team recognized something important: they're building a new token standard on Bitcoin. The last thing this space needs is ANOTHER fragmenting force that requires people to spend more BTC buying/minting another new token. Orange $PILL already exists to unify failed token standards. Instead of competing, we're collaborating. $PILL gives the entire Bitcoin community an OP_20 token to use, trade, and farm - without spending additional BTC on a new standard. Everyone wins. --- THE PARTNERSHIP TERMS What Orange PILL receives: • $PILL becomes the FIRST OP_20 token • $PILL becomes the FIRST yield farm token on Motoswap • Featured placement in the Motoswap farming section at launch • Official support and endorsement from both teams What we're giving in return: • A portion of $PILL supply gifted to the OP_NET team for long-term incentive alignment • A portion of fees from Orange $PILL's liquidity mining program shared with OP_NET • Testnet users of OP_NET and Motoswap (who have been testing for ~1 year) will receive $PILL as their reward for contributing to the ecosystem --- MOTOSWAP ALIGNMENT You can't align with OP_NET without aligning with Motoswap. • Treasury swap between $PILL and $MOTO to ensure deep PILL/MOTO liquidity from day 1 • Additional $PILL airdrop to ALL $MOTO holders (burned AND non-burned) beyond B2E rewards • Additional $PILL airdrop to ALL Motocat holders The communities are now fully aligned. --- LONG TERM VISION Orange $PILL's ultimate goal: the first truly decentralized DAO on Bitcoin, powered by OP_NET smart contracts. Full tokenomics will be disclosed as we approach OP_NET mainnet and $PILL launch. --- FINAL NOTE - PLEASE READ We are beyond grateful to the OP_NET and Motoswap teams for this opportunity. Their support means everything to this community. But we need everyone to understand and respect this: $PILL is NOT an official OP_NET protocol token. There is no OP_NET protocol token and there never will be. $BTC is the only native gas token OP_NET uses. We are an independent community that is now proudly aligned with the OP_NET ecosystem. Please represent this accurately in your messaging. --- Thank you OP_NET. Thank you Motoswap. Let's build. Taking the Orange $PILL is choosing Bitcoin unification 🍊💊

Orange Pill 🍊💊

52,074 views • 9 months ago